Open 753: Nomination Mafia [Game Over!]
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- Shoshin
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You're saying I'm informed because I'm using conditional reasoning? You're the one revealing an informed perspective here.In post 2499, scum reading wrote:
My whole point of view is that you are scum that said "Lynch vedith and if he flips town, lynch sr next". If I believe you are scum, you are the informed minority, so, as an informed minority scum, you say lynch vedith, he will flip town and then you'll follow my lynch through.In post 2486, Shoshin wrote:
You're saying Vedith is town when he hasn't flipped yet???In post 2483, scum reading wrote:??? Does my post baffle you or what? I don't get it
This whole case comes from my paranoia because you gave up your strongest town read, which was a lazy tr by the way, since it's true, I've been a lurker this game, and it looks like you took me with you up to this point and then you just throw me like bait. I'm the easiest bait because of my lack of content. I just don't get why you'd say that, I've townread you up until you post that shit, we had the same scum reads and all, why do you post something like that if not as an attempt to try and survive when being pushed?- Shoshin
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Why are you scumreading me for saying my reads might change post-flip?In post 2515, scum reading wrote:This is where I'm at for now, reads will most likely change post-flip.- Shoshin
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The phrase "reads will most likely change post-flip" implies an informed perspective about the flip. Do you realize that?In post 2515, scum reading wrote:This is where I'm at for now, reads will most likely change post-flip.- Shoshin
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I'm ignoring anyone who has concerns about me unless they explain first why they think all of DT/Chen/Vedith are town.In post 2469, Shoshin wrote:I guess I'll get into the logic of how this game breaks down:
1. If I were scum, I would never nominate myself with Vedith/Chen unless all of DT/Chen/Vedith were town. This is because scum me aligned with one or two of DT/Chen/Vedith easily wins the game by nominating three townies outside of DT/Chen/Vedith. We mislynch during nomination, and then we mislynch the townie in DT/Chen/Vedith. I follow this strategy as scum because it safely wins me the game by following my poe to its logical conclusion. Thus, to believe that I'm scum, you have to believe that all of DT/Chen/Vedith are town.
2. If SR is scum with one or two of DT/Chen/Vedith, he never nominates anyone in the group of DT/Chen/Vedith. This is because scum SR easily wins by nominating three townies outside of himself or DT/Chen/Vedith. He mislynches during nomination, and then he mislynches the townie in DT/Chen/Vedith. Scum SR follows this strategy because it simply follows my poe to its logical conclusion.
3. If the scum includes two of DT/Chen/Vedith, they almost always nominate three townies outside of DT/Chen/Vedith. Again, this allows scum to follow my poe to its logical conclusion, winning them the game. Thus, the unique situation we find ourselves is unlikely to arise in a situation where two of DT/Chen/Vedith are scum.
4. If the mafia is precisely DT/Chen/Vedith, they lose if they nominate three townies outside of themselves. Thus, their optimal strategy is to shake things up. How do you shake things up? You nominate yourselves in some sort of combination. This reading is consistent with the current nominations.
5. Everything else is WIFOM. If you say scum are trying to outplay by acting differently than the above, you're saying that scum chose the harder path to victory for no reason other than style points. It's absurd to suggest that scum do things solely because of WIFOM. Scum do things to win the game, period. WIFOM is occasionally useful in that pursuit, but at the end of the day, scum are most likely to do what wins them the game. So don't give me a bunch of WIFOM excuses to argue my analysis is incorrect. I'm talking about what's by far the most probable outcomes.- Shoshin
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In post 2556, Shoshin wrote:I'm ignoring anyone who has concerns about me unless they explain first why they think all of DT/Chen/Vedith are town.- Shoshin
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Okay, Volx. I guess I have to treat you like a baby & spell everything out ad nauseam.
First line of questioning:
1. Is it possible that I'm scum from your perspective? Yes.
2. Is it possible that Auro's scum from your perspective? Yes.
3. Is it possible that Alonzo's scum from your perspective? Yes.
4. Is it possible that SR's scum from your perspective? Yes.
5. Is it possible that Vedith's scum from your perspective? Yes.
6. Is it possible that DT's scum from your perspective? Yes.
7. Is it possible that Chenn's scum from your perspective? Yes.
8. Is it possible that any scumteam composed of the above players is scum from your perspective? Yes.
9. Does answering any of the above get you closer to finding scum? No.
THEREFORE, STOP TALKING ABOUT WHAT'S POSSIBLE.
Second line of questioning:
1. Is it likely for scum me to choose the easiest path to victory? Yes.
2. Is it likely for scum me to choose the simplest path to victory? Yes.
3. Is it likely for scum me to choose the least risky path to victory? Yes.
4. Is it likely for scum me to make my path to victory harder for style points? No.
5. Is it likely for scum me to take unnecessary risks for style points? No.
6. Is it likely for scum me to create WIFOM for style points? No.
THEREFORE, DO NOT TALK TO ME ABOUT ANY SCENARIO IN WHICH I'M SCUM THAT ISN'T THE EASIEST, SIMPLEST, LEAST RISKY PATH TO VICTORY.
Third line of questioning:
1. Is mislynching today & tomorrow the quickest way for scum me to win? Yes.
2. Is mislynching today & tomorrow the easiest way for scum me to win? Yes.
3. Is mislynching today & tomorrow the simplest way for scum me to win? Yes.
4. Is mislynching today & tomorrow the least risky way for scum me to win? Yes.
5. Based on the above, if it's possible for scum me to mislynch today & tomorrow, is it likely for scum me to pursue an alternative strategy? No.
THEREFORE, SCUM ME ALWAYS ATTEMPTS TO MISLYNCH TODAY & TOMORROW.
Fourth line of questioning:
1.
2.
1. Is scum me self-nominating twice in a row in unpredictable situations likely to be the easiest, simplest, least risky path to victory? No.
2. Is scum me self-nominating against you & Irrelephant on D2 likely to be the easiest, simplest, least risky path to victory? No.
3. Is scum me lynching Irrelephant over you when Irrelephant reads me town likely to be the easiest, simplest, least risky path to victory? No.
4. Is scum me
3. Did scum me have opportunities to lynch you over Irrelephant on D2 without facing any risk? Yes.
3. If scum me could guarantee a mislynch today & tomorrow, is it likely for scum me to choose this path over another path to victory? Yes.
4.
9. Is it likely for scum me to nominate myself along with a partner when there is an easier, less risky path to victory? No.- Shoshin
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It comes down to this, Volx:
1. If any of DT/Chen/Vedith are scum with me, is it possible for scum me to nominate three townies who aren't DT/Chen/Vedith? Yes.
2. If scum me can nominate three townies today who aren't DT/Chen/Vedith, would this guarantee a mislynch today? Yes.
3. Does scum me face any risk in nominating three townies who aren't DT/Chen/Vedith? No.
4. If scum me gets a mislynch today, can scum me push an easy mislynch on the townie within DT/Chen/Vedith tomorrow? Yes.
5. If scum me pushes a mislynch on the townie within DT/Chen/Vedith tomorrow, will scum me face any risk? No.
THEREFORE, IF SCUM ME IS PARTNERED WITH ANY OF DT/CHEN/VEDITH, SCUM ME NOMINATES THREE TOWNIES OUTSIDE OF DT/CHEN/VEDITH.- Shoshin
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One last line of questioning to make sure your myopic self doesn't misunderstand what this means:
Based on the above, you know for a fact that I am not scum with any of DT/Chen/Vedith, because if I were, I would have nominated three townies outside of DT/Chen/Vedith.
Therefore, you must argue that DT/Chen/Vedith are all town to say that I'm scum. And any paranoia about me outside of that is just speculation based on POSSIBILITY rather than PROBABILITY.- Shoshin
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WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH YOU, VOLX? I BROKE DOWN EVERY STEP IN THE LOGIC FOR YOU.
If the scumteam is me/Vedith/SR, we nominate Volx/Alonzo/Auro (i.e. three townies outside of DT/Chen/Vedith). We mislynch a nominee & then we mislynch one of DT/Chenn.In post 2584, volxen wrote:But if the scumteam is Shoshin/Vedith/Scumreading or Shoshin/Chennisden/Scumreading
If the scumteam is me/Chenn/SR, we nominate Volx/Alonzo/Auro (i.e. three townies outside of DT/Chen/Vedith). We mislynch a nominee & then we mislynch one of DT/Chenn.
I DON'T BUS WHEN I HAVE SUCH AN EASY PATH TO VICTORY.- Shoshin
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What question was answered wrong, Volx?In post 2580, Shoshin wrote:It comes down to this, Volx:
1. If any of DT/Chen/Vedith are scum with me, is it possible for scum me to nominate three townies who aren't DT/Chen/Vedith? Yes.
2. If scum me can nominate three townies today who aren't DT/Chen/Vedith, would this guarantee a mislynch today? Yes.
3. Does scum me face any risk in nominating three townies who aren't DT/Chen/Vedith? No.
4. If scum me gets a mislynch today, can scum me push an easy mislynch on the townie within DT/Chen/Vedith tomorrow? Yes.
5. If scum me pushes a mislynch on the townie within DT/Chen/Vedith tomorrow, will scum me face any risk? No.
THEREFORE, IF SCUM ME IS PARTNERED WITH ANY OF DT/CHEN/VEDITH, SCUM ME NOMINATES THREE TOWNIES OUTSIDE OF DT/CHEN/VEDITH.
Every step in the logic is laid bare. Don't fucking write another wall at me without addressing the specific step in my logic that you take issue with.- Shoshin
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It's not AtE. I don't want to have to deal with townies who struggle this much to follow basic logic when it's broken down the way I just did.In post 2586, volxen wrote:I don't see the point of the AtE.- Shoshin
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Why do you prefer Chenn over Vedith?
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And how do you know Vedith's reads were off?In post 2660, Auro wrote:Way past my bedtime. I'll be back in the morning. I think Chen is the correct lynch, and if not, SR. Vedith's reads were off.- Shoshin
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From your perspective, I'm town who is voting scum SR or I'm scum who is bussing. Either way, vote SR please.
It needs to happen before Alonzo stupidly votes me & allows the scum to win.
We're on a clock.
I've lost multiple games because townies didn't vote the scum quickly enough at LYLO.
Please don't let that happen this game.- Shoshin
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DT, if you have concerns about me, please talk to me about them in a respectful, direct, & clear manner, and please don't do so in an aggressive manner because I'm a sensitive person. If you're town & have an open mind, as is your trademark as town based on what I've seen in other games, then I'm willing to talk with you about the game.- Shoshin
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Town Vedith pushed for lynching SR based on meta so this doesn't ring true.In post 2754, scum reading wrote:You do know my meta, maybe you can tell the people how I play. If you pushed against me that would've been nuts considering you know my playstyle.
DT, can you provide further insight on SR's meta?- Shoshin
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I don't know who his partners are.In post 2760, DoubtingThomas wrote:Before I talk to you about my concerns, who do you think is the scum team with scum reading and why (if you can case them)?
For most of this game I was working under the theory that scum was within Fusco/Vedith/Chenn/you. That theory was proven wrong yesterday so I'm currently sorting that out.- Shoshin
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I'm glad Auro voted SR over me. I don't think the vote is too hasty.In post 2761, DoubtingThomas wrote:and what do you think about auro's rather hasty vote on scum reading?
There's a remote possibility that SR's town & scum haven't hammered but it's not something I feel worth contemplating at this point. I think the case against SR is overwhelming based on the flips so far.- Shoshin
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I don't follow what this means. Can you clarify?In post 2769, chennisden wrote:BoP says that you wouldn't let us PoE so fast. This might be a bus.
For some perspective, I've been in LYLO situations many times in the past & whenever I wait to vote I end up losing because town votes town before I have a chance to vote whereas when I've voted immediately it's always been on scum.- Shoshin
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I'll offer some simple reasons to vote SR over me for those who aren't sure:
1. I was nominated twice. SR wasn't ever nominated. While it's possible that scum self-nominate twice in a row, it's unlikely because it puts scum at great risk while providing little if any advantage. Thus, the nominations suggest SR as more likely scum than me.
2. I've been leading the game after RC replaced out, offering tons of analysis about who the scum are, who the town are, and who we should be lynching. SR's been sheeping me the entire game. Based on the general propensity of town to lead & of scum to sheep misguided town, SR's more likely scum than me.
3. SR's a better probability lynch based solely on the fact he's plausibly partnered with anyone while it's unlikely that I'm partnered with Chenn, Volx, or DT. It's unlikely I'm partnered with Chenn or Volx because it's unlikely that scum nominate two of their members at the same time. It's unlikely I'm partnered with DT because scum almost never interact the way we have.- Shoshin
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We're not partners because we were nominated at the same time, period. The same logic applies to me & Volx as well.In post 2785, chennisden wrote:
By the way, realize that this interaction never happens between scum chennis and scum Shoshin.In post 2779, Shoshin wrote:I recommend not thinking about this game mechanically, Chenn.
From your perspective, it's very likely that one of me or SR is scum. It's still a probability, not a confirmed fact.
You don't need to declare intent at this point. If you think SR's scum, vote him. - Shoshin
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