KTaNE [game over!]
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivor
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He can't explain it cause it's fake lolIn post 4613, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:tbh I think your read on VP is weirdly strong
I went back to VP's D2 posts and I'm still not sure what there screamed town to you
I have menalque's last day 2 posts linked in my wall you can go just look at how fast he swaps for no reason.I prefer they, thanks :)- Dwlee99
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Amazing that your jumping skills are directly into incorrect reads at the exact moment that's convenient :^)
I prefer they, thanks :)- Dwlee99
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I don't follow what makes no sense about itIn post 4625, VP Baltar wrote:
I already would have had two defusals before there was a risk, yeah? This makes no sense.In post 4609, Dwlee99 wrote:Not getting limmed and not exposing scum as having at least 2 defuses seems like a pretty big win to me?I prefer they, thanks :)- Dwlee99
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivor
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It's day 5 and you're still alive?In post 4635, VP Baltar wrote:
Scum start the game with 1 kill.In post 4633, Dwlee99 wrote:
I don't follow what makes no sense about itIn post 4625, VP Baltar wrote:
I already would have had two defusals before there was a risk, yeah? This makes no sense.In post 4609, Dwlee99 wrote:Not getting limmed and not exposing scum as having at least 2 defuses seems like a pretty big win to me?
I defuse N1.
Scum have 2 kills, kill N1.
I defuse N2.
Scum have 2 kills. Kill N2.
Town ZOMG VP IS SCUM! Lim VP.
Scum kill N3, town worried rest of game about defusals, never let defusals happen.
As opposed to what are you proposing? Scum have like 3 NKs or something they are sitting on? For what reason? To keep me alive when I was always going to get limmed at some point for having two defusals?I prefer they, thanks :)- Dwlee99
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivor
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This is the composition of experts I'd like tonight
I prefer they, thanks :)- Dwlee99
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivor
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You're arguing that my argument doesn't make sense cause you'd get limmed day three but it's day five what am I missingIn post 4645, VP Baltar wrote:
You really this dense as town?In post 4636, Dwlee99 wrote:It's day 5 and you're still alive?I prefer they, thanks :)- Dwlee99
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivor
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I didn't think about tomorrow. Did you double check with the change that happens about experts at a certain point?In post 4644, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:I still think we should only put 2 TRs in the group and throw a nullread in to be the third
Otherwise on D6, we only have {Dwlee99, Menalque, Misty, GL, Enchant} to pick from, which is just going to be a repeat of D3
Andante should absolutely go in today b/c she's most likely to get killed
Then only one of me/Bell imoI prefer they, thanks :)- Dwlee99
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivor
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In post 4647, VP Baltar wrote:
Do you think what I'm saying or what you're saying is the more likely outcome? Which furthers scum win cons more?In post 4646, Dwlee99 wrote:
You're arguing that my argument doesn't make sense cause you'd get limmed day three but it's day five what am I missingIn post 4645, VP Baltar wrote:
You really this dense as town?In post 4636, Dwlee99 wrote:It's day 5 and you're still alive?
I have literally no idea what you're talking about hereIn post 4648, VP Baltar wrote:No shit I'm alive. Unless I'm nostradomus, pretty sure that's not relevant to what I'm saying.I prefer they, thanks :)- Dwlee99
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So you ask what you'd gain as scum from not trying to lim meIn post 4608, VP Baltar wrote:
This is an insane thing to say. If you want me to scum case you, I can read lots of your posts with bad intent.In post 4599, Dwlee99 wrote:I'm pretty sure VP townreads me because he is literally factionally informed I'm town but okay
I'm trying to right this game state and willing to risk my lim to do it because I think if someone doesn't correct course, we are headed to a very bad game state.
You should take a step back and think about what I would actually gain from approaching the game this way as scum (nothing), and then help me lim mistyx.
I point out if you are successful in evading a 1v1 with me that you don't get limmed and that you don't confirm that scum have 2 defusals towards their 4 defusal win con.In post 4609, Dwlee99 wrote:Not getting limmed and not exposing scum as having at least 2 defuses seems like a pretty big win to me?
And now I have no fucking clue how what you're saying is relevant. What does any of this have to do with you positioning to try to lim mistyx instead of me? Nothing. There's no connection. I have no idea what you're even attempting to sayIn post 4635, VP Baltar wrote:
Scum start the game with 1 kill.In post 4633, Dwlee99 wrote:
I don't follow what makes no sense about itIn post 4625, VP Baltar wrote:
I already would have had two defusals before there was a risk, yeah? This makes no sense.In post 4609, Dwlee99 wrote:Not getting limmed and not exposing scum as having at least 2 defuses seems like a pretty big win to me?
I defuse N1.
Scum have 2 kills, kill N1.
I defuse N2.
Scum have 2 kills. Kill N2.
Town ZOMG VP IS SCUM! Lim VP.
Scum kill N3, town worried rest of game about defusals, never let defusals happen.
As opposed to what are you proposing? Scum have like 3 NKs or something they are sitting on? For what reason? To keep me alive when I was always going to get limmed at some point for having two defusals?I prefer they, thanks :)- Dwlee99
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To this part I guess... greeting is dead and it's possible bell was protected N2 or Pooky was protected N1. That would leave you with no night kills left so ?In post 4653, VP Baltar wrote:I didn't say that was why I wouldn't have defused. I'm saying if I was scum, I would have killed and laughed at actually getting two defusals. What are you even talking about????I prefer they, thanks :)- Dwlee99
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There's actually not really a reason to NOT save it unless you need to kill a PR. Kills are just EV way more valuable later in the game actually. If you kill sooner that's a townie that can't get mislimmed. If you kill later then you only thin out the pool when it reduces town EV ie gives them one less mislim.In post 2731, Datisi wrote:vote count 3.00- with 16votes in play, it takes9to make a decision.
- day 3 ends in (expired on 2022-04-18 21:00:00).
- 3players who have the most nominations will be bomb experts on n3.
I prefer they, thanks :)- Dwlee99
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I don't think Pooky is scum fwiw but also Pooky paranoia is fineIn post 4657, Bell wrote:*insert Mandatory Pooky paranoia*
Straight up position reversal sucks. And even if I’m wrong and they’d suspected vp all along I still say the same.I prefer they, thanks :)- Dwlee99
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Two kill example in a 8:1 9p cause I don't feel like doing multiple scum odds:
Chance of limming scum each day assuming haven't limmed correctly yet:
(Kill two at start, then none):
1/9, 1/7, 1/5, 1/4, 1/3, scum win
Kill two at end:
1/9, 1/8, 1/7, 1/5, 1/3, scum win
Note the 1/8 chance of limming correctly vs 1/4 (math is more complicated than this but shows they're not equivalent EV)I prefer they, thanks :)- Dwlee99
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How would you flip me and then not get limmed tomorrow? Are you forgetting we are in a 1v1 right now?In post 4670, VP Baltar wrote:
In a scum me world, why wouldn't I just lim you first and then try to get mistyx? A bird in hand etc.In post 4668, Dwlee99 wrote:If you lim mistyx and then me you could
The simpler answer is I'm town. Starting to think you're scum with mistyx and and that's why you're so dead set on killing me today. If you were town, you'd have similar worries to me about the game state.
Simpler answer is you're scum because the alternative is that Andres fucked up the description of the bomb cause I've already shown by the rules that there is no way a scum role could cause a bomb to explodeI prefer they, thanks :)- Dwlee99
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Okay but just flip scum instead? Also if I flipped scum that actually wouldn't tell you VP's alignmentIn post 4707, Enchant wrote:
IF DWLEE DIE WE STILL DISCOVER VP ALIGNMENT?In post 4705, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:I tend to play for worst case scenario
if VPB is town, we can defuse 2 more times safely so we can block the mafia bomb kill twice.
if VPB is scum, we kinda can't afford to defuse anythingI prefer they, thanks :)- Dwlee99
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In post 4333, Dwlee99 wrote:
Subject: KTaNE [twilight four]
This post combined with what Menalque said here:Menalque wrote:Strange > dwlee > baltar
Could be strange and dwlee I guess, but that’s my preference for limming them
CSF, GL, bell, ceph, VPB all town
Pooky, Andy, enchant prob town?
Misty still scum
Titus can be scum, and is likely to be scum if only 1 in strange and dwlee
VOTE: strange
Subject: KTaNE [twilight four]
Are what made me worried. Okay, it wasn't quite what Menalque said here, but rather the vote count he was quoting that showed him voting VPB combined with now thinking that VPB was completely town all of a sudden. He also came into today with this to say:Menalque wrote:
Was thinking this was weird if my reads are accurate but it could just be that scum weren’t around and figured piling onto the Baltar wagon would look really bad if mala went through anyway/went through todayIn post 2900, Datisi wrote:vote count 3.03- with 16votes in play, it takes9to make a decision.
- day 3 ends in (expired on 2022-04-18 21:00:00).
- 3players who have the most nominations will be bomb experts on n3.
Subject: KTaNE [twilight four]
Compare that toMenalque wrote:Why were dwlee and strange experted?
Subject: KTaNE [twilight four]
Look through Menalque's ISO from this "baltar needs to die" to complaining about me and strange being experted, but not baltar, there is no progression in between there. Which is why I immediately unvoted and:Menalque wrote:my very brief thoughts are that Baltar probably needs to die today, and if scum flip then pooky definitely needs to die
Subject: KTaNE [twilight four]
Subject: KTaNE [twilight four]Dwlee99 wrote:UNVOTE:
Don't want day to end
Does anyone think it'd be weird for strange to choose to blow up the bomb when she knows she is extremely likely to be the one accused for and limmed for it?
Eventually got Menalque to say this:Dwlee99 wrote:Menalque: why were you voting VPB yesterday? Why are you townreading him now? Why do you scumread me and strange more than him?
Subject: KTaNE [twilight four]
[...]Menalque wrote:
In the barest of bones— it was less related to finding VPB actively scummy and more to do with paranoia around him being defuser twiceIn post 4065, Dwlee99 wrote:
It would be helpful for me if you answered thatIn post 4063, Menalque wrote:Yeah, I saw dwlee, I just don’t really feel like engaging on it atm
But I just think he reads as town, and that goes with how I felt about him in the PT, and I realised it was at least partly ego — I didn’t want to be the one who called VPB town only for him to single handedly win for scum by defusing 4 times
But fuck it, if he’s scum, he’s played really well and he’s fooled me
3.) Menalque's progression on VP reeks of scum angling to get us (Strange/me) mislimmed. I mean, he literally came into the day complaining that we were made experts after the bomb had exploded, when really if town he should be considering VP the most suspicious given his previous thoughts that Baltar needs to die. It seems to me like he pushed Baltar for the bus cred on Day 3, but on Day 4 he now had to follow the new plan of getting as many townies killed before Baltar's flip.I prefer they, thanks :)- Dwlee99
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This does give me paranoia that pooky is bussing a little bit but I have to read his ISO to review if he has reasons he townreads me now/scumreads VPBIn post 4698, Bell wrote:Pooky said the scum team was trying to kill VP Baltar by adding him to the defusals repeatedly.
Now he’s just speaking the scum party line that he argued first.I prefer they, thanks :)- Dwlee99
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VP flipped his read on me because I didn't understand how the words he saying made any sense in response to what I was saying. I've since gone through and shown how what he was saying wasn't even relevant to what I said in 4658, but then he just skipped that post and continued calling me scumI prefer they, thanks :)- Dwlee99
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivor
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@Bell, here are some direct quotes from Mena that display what I'm talking about. These are linked in my wall but I think only the second one is quoted in full
In post 2582, Menalque wrote:My current reads (update):
town: Andante, Greeting, Andres, GL, Bell, CSF, Ceph, VP Baltar, enchant
null town: pooky
null for lack of engagement with them: Strange, mala, dwlee
good odds of scum: Titus
scum: misty, frog
***
pedit: appreciate the thought, Andres, but I was an expert last night and am therefore ineligibleIn post 3465, Menalque wrote:Why were dwlee and strange experted?I prefer they, thanks :)- Dwlee99
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In post 2854, Menalque wrote:my very brief thoughts are that Baltar probably needs to die today, and if scum flip then pooky definitely needs to die
Pretend second two were linked last postIn post 3465, Menalque wrote:Why were dwlee and strange experted?I prefer they, thanks :)- Dwlee99
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivor
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I'm more likely to draw a night kill or a bomb on me than to be limmedIn post 4717, Enchant wrote:
You maybe win against VP (and most likely will), but on next day you are toast.In post 4709, Dwlee99 wrote:
Okay but just flip scum instead? Also if I flipped scum that actually wouldn't tell you VP's alignmentIn post 4707, Enchant wrote:
IF DWLEE DIE WE STILL DISCOVER VP ALIGNMENT?In post 4705, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:I tend to play for worst case scenario
if VPB is town, we can defuse 2 more times safely so we can block the mafia bomb kill twice.
if VPB is scum, we kinda can't afford to defuse anythingI prefer they, thanks :)- Dwlee99
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivor
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It's literally -EV for scum to use kills early and also would get you limmed easier. Why would I believe you would do something obviously umoptimal as scum? Do the math yourself and see that saving kills for later days increases scum win oddsIn post 4725, VP Baltar wrote:Therefore, if I was scum, I'd just want to get people dead rather than limp along and not be doing anything useful for scum for several days. If I'm scum, I have already achieved above average toward the wincon, very little to gain by hiding kills etc. I don't see how this is actually confusing for you. You're being intentionally obtuse because you want to get me pissed off and having stupid arguments in thread over semantics like this.I prefer they, thanks :)- Dwlee99
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And you're still ignoring 4658 where I literally go through and show how what you're saying in response to me doesn't make sense cause it's completely irrelevant to what I said but you wanna call me obtuseIn post 4731, Dwlee99 wrote:
It's literally -EV for scum to use kills early and also would get you limmed easier. Why would I believe you would do something obviously umoptimal as scum? Do the math yourself and see that saving kills for later days increases scum win oddsIn post 4725, VP Baltar wrote:Therefore, if I was scum, I'd just want to get people dead rather than limp along and not be doing anything useful for scum for several days. If I'm scum, I have already achieved above average toward the wincon, very little to gain by hiding kills etc. I don't see how this is actually confusing for you. You're being intentionally obtuse because you want to get me pissed off and having stupid arguments in thread over semantics like this.I prefer they, thanks :)- Dwlee99
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1.) The doc didn't need to be killed if scum weren't going to kill anyway, and also could be blown up (happened)
2.) The one kill that did go through was on someone who scumread you, exactly what you mean by "shaping gamestate"
3.) We don't know what scum informed knowledge is, but scum could know what PRs to be afraid of etc.I prefer they, thanks :)- Dwlee99
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivor
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They/them- Survivor
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- Posts: 25686
- Joined: July 3, 2015
- Pronoun: They/them
- Location: Northeast USA
But then everyone goes "no way someone is scum in the group kill kill kill"In post 4745, VP Baltar wrote:
Not if someone looks at the switches and actually thinks about it for 5 seconds. This is what I mean by being intentionally obtuseIn post 4742, Dwlee99 wrote:It's essentially 3 guaranteed scum mislims that's whyI prefer they, thanks :)- Dwlee99
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivor
- Dwlee99
They/them- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 25686
- Joined: July 3, 2015
- Pronoun: They/them
- Location: Northeast USA
- Dwlee99
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Dwlee99 They/themSurvivor
- Dwlee99
They/them- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 25686
- Joined: July 3, 2015
- Pronoun: They/them
- Location: Northeast USA
1.) The doc was a simple doc so no, because they have PRs to kill as wellIn post 4748, VP Baltar wrote:
1) if you're scum who want to kill ever, you need to kill the doc. Why would I as scum put a doc as a defuser to draw suspicion on myself rather than just kill them????In post 4738, Dwlee99 wrote:1.) The doc didn't need to be killed if scum weren't going to kill anyway, and also could be blown up (happened)
2.) The one kill that did go through was on someone who scumread you, exactly what you mean by "shaping gamestate"
3.) We don't know what scum informed knowledge is, but scum could know what PRs to be afraid of etc.
2) who hasn't scum read me, but yeah pretty fucking convenient that happens the night I'm about to get sussed hard.
3) how would scum know what PRs andante and greeting are?
2.) There have been people that didn't scumread you, and EoD3 you were actually townread cause you literally got experted.
3.) Role cop? But that's not really what I'm saying. I'm saying scum could have info that informs them how they want to save their night kills.I prefer they, thanks :) - Dwlee99
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