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Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 10:12 am
by Boem_u_dusi
For those mathematically inclined among you:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference
In case you don't get what I'm trying to do here.
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 10:13 am
by Dunnstral
In post 4022, Wake1 wrote:
OK, then explain to me with logic how all 6 are Town.
Go ahead and say how you know all of them can't possibly be Scum.
I'm not the one who said that, though
But when your mislynch pool is all 6 of them, yeah that's dumb
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 10:15 am
by Wake1
In post 3994, Boem_u_dusi wrote: In post 3985, Wake1 wrote:I think it's reckless to automatically assume NO Scum could have bussed Vedith Day 1.
It's possible, but don't say it was either 100% yes or no when you don't know.
I mean, come on. Be logical. Deal in possibilities, not absolutes, especially when you can't possibly know one way or another.
It's foolish to assume no scum bussed Vedith D1.
But it makes people on Vedith wagon less likely to be scum (individually) because getting rid of a teammate doesn't help your wincon. That's why I'm opposed to lynching people who were on Vedith wagon and I'm trying to focus more on people outside that wagon today. I think Mirhawk's lynch is about 50% chance for us to get scum and Zach's lynch is about 5% chance. See where I'm going with this?
You initially said that all 6 were Town. Don't fucking say that if you acknowledge it's possible that Scum could have been on Vedith's wagon Day 1.
My SOLE contention is that it IS, indeed, possible. Stop trying to change the narrative. If people saw the writing on Vedith's wall then of COURSE it's possible a teammate could have voted for him. I may have done the same if I were Scum.
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 10:16 am
by Wake1
First of all, you assume all of them are mislynches. I don't.
And no, it's not dumb. Show me exactly why you think otherwise.
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 10:16 am
by Boem_u_dusi
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 10:17 am
by Boem_u_dusi
And I said it's probably 5/6 or 6/6 which seems about right from probability standpoint.
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 10:18 am
by Dunnstral
In post 4028, Wake1 wrote:And no, it's not dumb. Show me exactly why you think otherwise.
Because I think your reads are super bad and don't want to lynch any of those except maybe peregrine
Also you included the jailkeeper in there when you were on about doc/cop claiming earlier - no clue why you think that's a good lynch
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 10:22 am
by Wake1
Boem, I understand you've been continuously trying to provoke me with personal digs, but all you're really doing is digging your grave for late game if you're Scum.
If you're Town I'm not sure what you're hoping to achieve with personal attacks.
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 10:25 am
by Boem_u_dusi
In post 4032, Wake1 wrote:Boem, I understand you've been continuously trying to provoke me with personal digs, but all you're really doing is digging your grave for late game if you're Scum.
If you're Town I'm not sure what you're hoping to achieve with personal attacks.
You're little hypocritical here, especially after
3952. All I've been trying to say that you are too nitpicky and obsess over unimportant things.
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 10:30 am
by Wake1
In post 4033, Boem_u_dusi wrote: In post 4032, Wake1 wrote:Boem, I understand you've been continuously trying to provoke me with personal digs, but all you're really doing is digging your grave for late game if you're Scum.
If you're Town I'm not sure what you're hoping to achieve with personal attacks.
You're little hypocritical here, especially after
3952. All I've been trying to say that you are too nitpicky and obsess over unimportant things.
Leave no stone unturned.
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 11:59 am
by AGar
In post 3773, Airick10 wrote: In post 3755, AGar wrote:@Airick
You do realize that refusing to claim, KNOWING that Varsoon had said "Don't lynch anyone without a claim because I can ~confirm~ people!" made that an implicitly pro-scum motive? No one was going to wildly hammer or speed up to a lynch with that, so by coming in and not claiming, she knew she stood to gain time to cop up a half-reasonable defense rather than claiming, Varsoon going "Lol nope." and her dying.
I disagree. You assume she knew about what Varsoon has claimed. I bet as a replacement, the first thing she noticed was that she was at L1 or L2. How is she to know a hammer wasn't going to come down at any minute? The recent posts there were saying we are waiting for you to claim before we hammer you. I absolutely believe if she was scum, she would have claimed immediately. I don't think scum would 'disobey' the town at a L1/L2 position at risk of being lynched.
So you're attacking her not claiming because it gives her time to defend herself? Personally, when I said I wanted to hear from Performer's replacement, I meant it.
She literally posted, after Varsoon put in big bold letters "If you lynch someone before they claim in this game, you're an idiot.", that she would not claim until she read up and got a reads list up. It was straight up stalling, and everyone's fucking buying into it like a bunch of dumbasses.
You're seriously making a lot of inferences into what her mindset was replacing in, rather than looking at the facts before us. Cut that shit out.
In post 3777, kraska77 wrote:
I actually don't mind getting lynched if i get to drive you to a corner first so you down after me
Why are you not pushing boem?
Because I have a scumbag in my sights with 5 votes. Why would I abandon this glorious ship?
Besides, you're in over your head. You're not going to back me into a corner. I'm town as it fucking gets, so deal with that, scumbag. Not to mention, me being scum means that I unvoted Titus and put fuel behind my hypothetical PR partner. A valuable PR at that.
If you had actually read up, instead of stalling and just coming up with whatever bullshit saved your neck, you would realize that.
In post 3822, implosion wrote:Boem wrote:The thing I'm missing here, why is it so bad that kraska claims and we confirm her alignment? Simple town/scum from Varsoon will suffice.
Two reasons.
1, if kraska is town there's no guarantee she's one of the roles Varsoon can confirm;
2, the real reason (and this is of course up to the will of the town as a whole) is that we should ask for a claim from someone else because kraska is very very town.
You've been so godawfully wrong so far in this game, jsyk.
In post 3843, Transcend wrote:kraska if you can make a case on agar that is more than
"his case on me is bullshit"
i'd POSSIBLY be willing to rope AGar.
but you gotta be convincing
Zach, this is not town. Just an FYI.
Dunnstral why didn't you vig this? For fucks sake, man.
Seriously, this Mirhawk wagon is so awful, for fucks sake. It makes me cry and vomit.
In post 3910, Wake1 wrote:He hasn't done anything to really IRK my gut. IMO I feel like this is multiball (and you better fucking believe I'm gonna voice my mind on that), and it's hard to tell. Sometimes the people who have the very most resistance to their wagons are Scum, like Titus, Dunnstral, and Zach. If it's MB any one of them could be Scum trying to hunt enemy Scum, and I'll be damned to be so Goddamn fucking naive to think it's unlikely this large game isn't mulitball. End of story.
I'm trying to catch up on other games, and I haven't paid much attention to Mirhawk. I'm not explicitly opposed to it, but I haven't come across any particularly compelling reason why we should LYNCH TEH MIRHAWKS. If it has NOTHING to do we actual information (i.e. the flips), then I need something very compelling to make me want to vote him. Personally my modus operandi is to focus my gameplay on the information we DO have, which is why I value the Vedith and Lapsa flips so much and everything that has to do with them and their interactions with other players and players who have said things to and about them. If someone agreed with Lapsa, it tells me something. If someone disagreed with Vedith, that too tells me something. Flips and associations. Flips and associations. That's my bread and butter and everything else has less credence, to put it bluntly in my honest and respectful opinion.
Wake, we had 1 kill last night claimed by a vig who was supposedly jail-kept. You need to commit to one of these three options right now:
A) Dunnstral is scum, there are two factions, they both shot Lapsa.
B) Dunnstral is town, there are two scum factions, THREE people shot Lapsa.
C) Dunnstral is town, there is one scum faction, they shot Lapsa.
In post 3992, kraska77 wrote:titus if you dont explain why youre voting mirhawk over me, im voting you
VOTE: titus
The plot thickens!
Seriously. How obvious does it have to be. Performer gets run up. The replace out doesn't indicate anything, correct. The largely town-driven wagon loses some steam because another player says he can confirm people with a claim. The replacement comes in, says "I'm not claiming." The town loses even more steam. Some shady motherfuckers jump onto Mirhawk and now that wagon is struggling because the town who don't have their heads up their asses know this is a bad lynch. For fuck's sake people.
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 12:04 pm
by Transcend
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 12:08 pm
by Titus
@Agar, Agree with the bulk of your wagon analysis, except for the part where you claim I have my head up my ass. Both are scum. Like I don't give two shits which one eats rope.
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 12:42 pm
by Almost50
So you're still playing that game of musical chairs hoping votes from one player to another just for the fun of it? Ok, cool!
VOTE: PV
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 1:21 pm
by AGar
In post 4037, Titus wrote:@Agar, Agree with the bulk of your wagon analysis, except for the part where you claim I have my head up my ass. Both are scum. Like I don't give two shits which one eats rope.
I mean, that's fair. I still want a case on Mirhawk, like I've asked for since the beginning of Day 2. That would at least make me feel slightly better. That was more of a generalization than anything, about the whole town since we're stalling on that wagon hard.
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 1:27 pm
by Titus
In post 4039, AGar wrote: In post 4037, Titus wrote:@Agar, Agree with the bulk of your wagon analysis, except for the part where you claim I have my head up my ass. Both are scum. Like I don't give two shits which one eats rope.
I mean, that's fair. I still want a case on Mirhawk, like I've asked for since the beginning of Day 2. That would at least make me feel slightly better. That was more of a generalization than anything, about the whole town since we're stalling on that wagon hard.
Case on Mirhawk
Has done jackshit aside from agreeing with my push on Zach because Zach cannot realize why he lamisted.
Wagon on him is obvtown
Wagon on mirhawk is driven by Vedith voters, same as performer
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 2:22 pm
by AGar
In post 4040, Titus wrote: In post 4039, AGar wrote: In post 4037, Titus wrote:@Agar, Agree with the bulk of your wagon analysis, except for the part where you claim I have my head up my ass. Both are scum. Like I don't give two shits which one eats rope.
I mean, that's fair. I still want a case on Mirhawk, like I've asked for since the beginning of Day 2. That would at least make me feel slightly better. That was more of a generalization than anything, about the whole town since we're stalling on that wagon hard.
Case on Mirhawk
Has done jackshit aside from agreeing with my push on Zach because Zach cannot realize why he lamisted.
Wagon on him is obvtown
Wagon on mirhawk is driven by Vedith voters, same as performer
Ummm..
implosion - Probably town, but has been very off this game. I don't quite trust his reads.
Peregrine - Super null lurker.
Boem - Probably scum.
Kraska - Scum
You - Town.
I see 20% of that wagon that I trust. 60% of that wagon I wouldn't follow to the pearly gates if I had any choice. And the other 20% I hesitate to trust because he's been badly off on his reads.
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 2:25 pm
by Titus
Boem and implosion town.
I'm town.
PV is null because he always lurks.
All these slots voted flipped scum.
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 8:10 pm
by Mirhawk
In post 3803, kraska77 wrote:Oh I missed this post
Dunn already said all he has to say about the claim episode. Your vote is useless because a) no wagon will form on Dunn today b) there is no new info you can get out of pushing Dunn now
If u think shannon or boem are scummy, push them. I don't agree with shannon bc i think she's been set up as convenient lynch bait but push her if you think she's scum
Point is your vote on Dunn has no utility
This is remarkably unimpressive to me considering you managed to not address any of the reasons I'm actually scumreading Dunn and Shannon for.
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 8:11 pm
by Mirhawk
In post 3809, kraska77 wrote:i honestly did not feel an iota of pressure when i replaced in lol so if you guys would stop claiming im pressuring mirhawk to get the pressure off myself, that would be cool. im genuinely trying to sort mirhawk and so far he's doing a terrible job at making me reconsider a vote on him
If this is how you sort people I doubt you often get very good results.
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 8:14 pm
by Mirhawk
Suggesting multiball is dumb. Unless there is some kind of evidence otherwise there's no reason to suspect multiple factions.
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 8:18 pm
by Mirhawk
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 8:21 pm
by Mirhawk
In post 3866, PeregrineV wrote: In post 3769, Mirhawk wrote: In post 3750, kraska77 wrote:His actions are removed from the game. What would voting you achieve? You claimed, people riled you up for it. You claimed and it's done. Almost 50 also claimed they jailed you
So like
What would a vote on you now achieve? I want to know. Because it seems to me that everything that can be said about this topic has already been said. A wagon on you is not happening and he knows it, so it follows that the vote on you is a pressure vote. But like. Is there something about your claim that still needs clarification or something? What new information would a pressure vote on you prompt at this point?
You're right I should definitely be on one of the leading wagons. Which would you prefer, yours or mine?
I'm on Dunn because I think Dunn's scum and I don't think the odds of you flipping scum are really all that great.
I suppose if I'm limited to only picking already formed wagons I could go with Implosion, but I simply don't feel like it.
If Dunn claimed to be vig who shot Lapsa, and you think he's scum, then wont the vig take care of that tonight?
So, combined with my personal belief that Dunn is town, your vote choice....is suspect.
Possibly, I admit I hadn't thought of this. There's no guarantee that there's a vig in the game though, there was only one kill last night after all.
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 11:38 pm
by Dunnstral
In post 4035, AGar wrote:Dunnstral why didn't you vig this? For fucks sake, man.
Because she's kind of obvious town??
Trust me if I had any thoughts of her being scum I'd have shot her following the force replace thing
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 11:59 pm
by Boem_u_dusi
In post 4035, AGar wrote:
Besides, you're in over your head. You're not going to back me into a corner. I'm town as it fucking gets, so deal with that, scumbag. Not to mention,
me being scum means that I unvoted Titus and put fuel behind my hypothetical PR partner.
A valuable PR at that.
Precisely.
In post 4041, AGar wrote:
implosion - Probably town, but has been very off this game. I don't quite trust his reads.
Peregrine - Super null lurker.
You - Town.
I see 20% of that wagon that I trust. 60% of that wagon I wouldn't follow to the pearly gates if I had any choice. And the other 20% I hesitate to trust because he's been badly off on his reads.
???
I think you need to reevaluate. Why is implosion more likely town for you? He didn't vote his
hypothetical scum partner
, unlike me or Performer slot.