Page 162 of 191
Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2021 11:16 am
by Something_Smart
I almost got executed that game, and I sure wasn't holding back from giving reads.
Besides, I've played a lot of games where I'm the first scum to flip. I'm quite good at having reads that don't make it obvious who my partners are.
Whereas... reads this game are all out of whack. I felt reasonably good about my initial set of reads, but plenty of people called them complete garbage, and several people who were in my PoE have now been flipped or confirmed town. And on top of that I received a gun. And on top of that skitter and Pooky have both been pushing me for inane bullshit for a long time now and surely they aren't
both
scum. So I don't really know what kind of pristine solve you are expecting me to have as town, but rest assured, I do not have one.
I have already shared what reads I am sticking to. I still don't think Pooky is scum, I still don't think Ydrasse is scum. I'm having a harder and harder time seeing skitter as town, I think she could be partnered with any of {you, Galron, ssbm}. Tetrina could be scum I guess, though it kinda seems like she constitutes a fair bit of town's power.
This game is going to be much clearer after tonight (if it's still going). I also think it's highly unlikely that I live the night, and I have trust in whichever townies survive to figure it out. Based on my reasoning, the only valid options to execute today are {skitter, Galron, ssbm}, and among them I have already stated skitter as my favorite, if she gets support, which she probably won't.
Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2021 11:37 am
by Gamma Emerald
Neither me nor Tetrina should be anyway close to a suspect for you
Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2021 11:43 am
by Something_Smart
Why's that?
Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2021 11:52 am
by Gamma Emerald
The way Tetrina brought up the gun result on Pooky along with everything already established is clear evidence that she’s town aligned
I feel like me allocating so much brainpower to this game is a crazy thing for scum!me to do. Scum!me tends to power wolf early and hang back later on. I can still end up dictating the course of the game but there’s a drop in the effort level that hasn’t happened here. Plus I’ve been so mercurial this game that there shouldn’t really be any idea that I’m pushing a scum agenda. I think the only logical partners for me at this point would maybe be Pooky/Ydrasse, but you have them townblocked so who do you think Is be scum with? I literally can’t be with Cephrir, Kyouko’s push D1 imo would be anti-partnery, and skitter+Galron I’ve got slated to be axed in my current mech plan.
Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2021 12:49 pm
by Gamma Emerald
Ydrasse I’d like if you could check in soonish
Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:00 pm
by skitter30
In post 4017, Something_Smart wrote: In post 4013, skitter30 wrote:ok, the bolded is true *if the assumption that the gunners are town* holds, which is not at all obvious to me
if you're scum you just get another kill tongiht, and that's a very big downside to my pov
No it doesn't! If we execute a scum with a gun, assuming exactly one scum dies overnight (that's the only way the game continues), then it goes down to 3:1. If we instead executed a player without a gun, that scum with a gun would get to shoot (and would presumably also be shot), so it would instead go to 2:1, with one more trusted townie dead. Dayplay-wise, there might be a small difference here, but realistically I think the game will probably be solvable in mylo regardless. But mechanically, there is no difference between the two.
That's the crux of the argument. As long as the trusted people make their reads clear, then having one of them die overnight isn't really a big loss-- but executing a townie with a gun is a huge loss.
? if we execute scum with a gun, and one scum dies overnight, the game just ends, i don't follow
--
if we execute scum with a gun, and don't kill a scum overnight, it's 3:1
if we execute town with a gun, and kill a scum overnight, it's 3:1
if we execute town without gun, it's 2:1 tomorrow
it's not at all obvious to me why the last world is substantially better than either of the first 2
Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:02 pm
by skitter30
can i just point out that responses like these just divert away from the questions that were actually asked ....
In post 4020, Gamma Emerald wrote:S_S I feel like one thing that points to you being scum is your sheer unwillingness to take real stances
gth (near literally), what's your solve/PoE?
like the above is a diversion away from actually answering this question ...
Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:14 pm
by Something_Smart
In post 4030, skitter30 wrote:? if we execute scum with a gun, and one scum dies overnight, the game just ends, i don't follow
sorry, I meant assuming exactly one scum dies total.
Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:15 pm
by Something_Smart
In post 4031, skitter30 wrote:can i just point out that responses like these just divert away from the questions that were actually asked ....
Yes, I diverted from what seemed like an unhelpful question to a line of discussion that seemed more helpful and relevant to what he's asking about. If he still wants to hear the answer to the original question, he's free to ask it again.
Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:18 pm
by ssbm_Kyouko
"Out of nowhere"
Lmao. Did you not read where it claimed BG and had no flavor claim to back it up,
and
got CCed by a consensus TR claiming Doctor with believable flavor?
You can't blame us for miseliminating DGB yesterDay
Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:19 pm
by skitter30
In post 4030, skitter30 wrote:it's not at all obvious to me why the last world is substantially better than either of the first 2
Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:20 pm
by Something_Smart
In post 4030, skitter30 wrote:if we execute scum with a gun, and don't kill a scum overnight, it's 3:1
if we execute town with a gun, and kill a scum overnight, it's 3:1
The difference here is that say we have a townbloc of 4. Execute scum with a gun, scum kills a town in the bloc, the rest of the shots are outside the bloc and miss. 3 townbloc members alive D4, which is 100% assuming the bloc is right.
Whereas if we execute town with a gun, scum kills two townies in the bloc, and now it's 3:1 but with only two of them alive, which is 50%.
And if we execute town without a gun, then scum kills two townies in the bloc and one shot hits, now it's 2:1 with the two being bloc members, once again 100%.
Repeat this with a bloc of 3 and you get 50% - 33% - 50%, same deal. If we hit exactly one scum between today and tonight, mechanically, there's no advantage to hitting them during the day, even if they have a gun. Whereas there is a disadvantage to hitting a townie with a gun.
Does that make sense?
Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:21 pm
by PookyTheMagicalBear
we dont even have a consensus townblock
Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:24 pm
by ssbm_Kyouko
In post 3947, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:like if you have a great reason for why kyouko is town, why wouldn't you want to convince me so that I can move on to a different solution?
what if SS does flip scum? The only way you could be 100% sure he doesn't flip scum is if you were scum yourself.
In the scenario where SS is scum and kyouko is town it's not like you have a chance to convince me of Kyouko being town after SS flips scum if we flip him today?
I thought you were going to shoot me if S_S was town? Maybe I'm remembering wrong. Anyways you should be shooting Cephrir or Galron on a scum S_S flip (preferably Galron). Doesn't track to me that you would be suspicious of Cephrir sending his FN message to S_S and not want to shoot Ceph on a scum!S_S flip.
You do make sense as a Galron partner I think.
Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:25 pm
by ssbm_Kyouko
Also this is the second time Pooky has gotten tilted that I'm obviously uninformed lmao
Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:26 pm
by ssbm_Kyouko
Pooky how about this, lim Galron and shoot me if hes town?
Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:28 pm
by ssbm_Kyouko
In post 3947, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:like if you have a great reason for why kyouko is town, why wouldn't you want to convince me so that I can move on to a different solution?
what if SS does flip scum? The only way you could be 100% sure he doesn't flip scum is if you were scum yourself.
In the scenario where SS is scum and kyouko is town it's not like you have a chance to convince me of Kyouko being town after SS flips scum if we flip him today?
Also if you really wanted to hear him out you could ask Galron to add Ceph to your PT. He said he has more walkies, and you both got added at the end of a day. So you would have time to talk to ceph in the night before shooting me
Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:30 pm
by PookyTheMagicalBear
I'm not limming my townread to rely on a gun that I don't know works or not and i dont even know if scum have anti gun measures or not
Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:31 pm
by PookyTheMagicalBear
Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:32 pm
by skitter30
In post 4036, Something_Smart wrote: In post 4030, skitter30 wrote:if we execute scum with a gun, and don't kill a scum overnight, it's 3:1
if we execute town with a gun, and kill a scum overnight, it's 3:1
The difference here is that say we have a townbloc of 4. Execute scum with a gun, scum kills a town in the bloc, the rest of the shots are outside the bloc and miss. 3 townbloc members alive D4, which is 100% assuming the bloc is right.
Whereas if we execute town with a gun, scum kills two townies in the bloc, and now it's 3:1 but with only two of them alive, which is 50%.
And if we execute town without a gun, then scum kills two townies in the bloc and one shot hits, now it's 2:1 with the two being bloc members, once again 100%.
Repeat this with a bloc of 3 and you get 50% - 33% - 50%, same deal. If we hit exactly one scum between today and tonight, mechanically, there's no advantage to hitting them during the day, even if they have a gun. Whereas there is a disadvantage to hitting a townie with a gun.
Does that make sense?
- for the first sentence, you're assuming only 1 scum has a gun. which, tbf, i think is likely, but i don't think ti's mechanically guaranteed and basing plans on that is ? questionable to me.
- we're also assuming we have an accurate townbloc, but there isn't, like, a consensus townbloc rn
- we're also bankign the game on the townbloc, which i'm not confident i am wiling to do rn
- if this logic depends on forming an accurate townbloc, why are you not trying to do so ? like this whole mechanical reasoning is predicated on a townbloc that we don't have that you aren't trying to craete (and i'm putting the onus on you since this is your reasoning for how we ought to play the day and why you oughtn't be flipped today)
- also from my pov i don't know that you *aren't* scum with a gun (vs town with a gun), so arguing that from my pov it's better not to flip you is questionable to me, as i'm currently scurmeading you .... like it's only better not to flip you if you're actually town, but you're not showin gme why you're town, only arguign that *if* you are, we shouldn't flip you
Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:32 pm
by PookyTheMagicalBear
In post 4041, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:Also if you really wanted to hear him out you could ask Galron to add Ceph to your PT. He said he has more walkies, and you both got added at the end of a day. So you would have time to talk to ceph in the night before shooting me
or he could make his towncase for you right here in the open where everyone can see it
Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:33 pm
by skitter30
i kinda already did and i still want to flip ss today
Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:33 pm
by ssbm_Kyouko
In post 4005, Cephrir wrote:it's wild that i we haven't even managed to generate a real galron wagon at any point. pretty incredible really. seems like scum really hate that idea c:
And conveniently enough, none of the players with guns want to shoot him either (: (: (:
Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:34 pm
by PookyTheMagicalBear
In post 4047, ssbm_Kyouko wrote: In post 4005, Cephrir wrote:it's wild that i we haven't even managed to generate a real galron wagon at any point. pretty incredible really. seems like scum really hate that idea c:
And conveniently enough, none of the players with guns want to shoot him either (: (: (:
so what
we dont even know if scum distributed these guns or not
we dont know if theres a rule about who they can distribute guns to
Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:35 pm
by Galron
In post 4036, Something_Smart wrote: In post 4030, skitter30 wrote:if we execute scum with a gun, and don't kill a scum overnight, it's 3:1
if we execute town with a gun, and kill a scum overnight, it's 3:1
The difference here is that say we have a townbloc of 4. Execute scum with a gun, scum kills a town in the bloc, the rest of the shots are outside the bloc and miss. 3 townbloc members alive D4, which is 100% assuming the bloc is right.
Whereas if we execute town with a gun, scum kills two townies in the bloc, and now it's 3:1 but with only two of them alive, which is 50%.
And if we execute town without a gun, then scum kills two townies in the bloc and one shot hits, now it's 2:1 with the two being bloc members, once again 100%.
Repeat this with a bloc of 3 and you get 50% - 33% - 50%, same deal. If we hit exactly one scum between today and tonight, mechanically, there's no advantage to hitting them during the day, even if they have a gun. Whereas there is a disadvantage to hitting a townie with a gun.
Does that make sense?
Your townbloc is borked if I'm guessing who you think it is.