Stars Aligned III - The Tenth Day

[totallynotmafia]

Well it would be incredibly stupid (to lynch somebody based solely on the fact they are unable to confirm themselves rather than through actual scum-hunting), but yes, I'm confident enough that the odds are in my favour that I will be confirmed tomorrow to say

lynch me tomorrow if I am not confirmed.

So yes, you can go and make plans to try and interfere with my murder tonight in your QT now. Bet you wish you knew who i was stalking!

[totallynotmafia]

Hint: It's not Benmage. There's probably some others you can cross off the list too.

[Trilobite]

I have no idea what's going on in all this night action directing/massclaiming.

All I got out of the last couple of pages was the fact that Xvart has managed to get away with lying to us for quite some time despite this.

Nicodemus has done nothing but have a convenient explanation for the discrepancy in his insanities and needs to hang post haste.

I do not want to lynch TNM today, and probably not even tomorrow either.

[AurorusVox]

TNM: lolol TNM I'm scum now because I want you to out your stalk target? SCUM WILL KNOW WHO YOU STALKED ANYWAY.

I presume VPB is also scum then? And Benmage too? Owait.

[Trilobite]

TNM, how confident are you that your stalk target is cult?

[VP Baltar]

@Trilo - If Nico is telling the truth about his rezz, then I don't see a reason to lynch him. Are you implying that the scum are gambiting here, i.e. intentionally used a rez kit on their ritual target so gallow-headed Nico could save himself? I mean, I'll admit that's kind of a genius plan, but how realistic is it?

[xvart]

Xvart. Any reason you took it from "only the following 8 people vote for Kunk" --> "only the following 6 people vote for Kunk"?

What happened to poor old 7?

It got lost in my congested head...

Only the following 7 people should vote for kunkstar:

Nicodemus
Plum
Seacore
Triglav
Trilobite
VasudeVa
VP Baltar

@Trilo - If Nico is telling the truth about his rezz, then I don't see a reason to lynch him. Are you implying that the scum are gambiting here, i.e. intentionally used a rez kit on their ritual target so gallow-headed Nico could save himself? I mean, I'll admit that's kind of a genius plan, but how realistic is it?

I can agree with this line of thinking. I thought there was more to it with the forgotten claimed insanity or something. Regardless, I don't think the Suicidal testing and discussion of people's virtues needs to be separate, so let us keep going down that route while we go down this route.

[kunkstar7]

@Mod:Can we proxy votes?

Choosing a single confirmed town (looking at benmage mostly) would simply reduce the suicidal testing to one person voting everyone in turn, but I'm not sure if Percy allows it.

[Trilobite]

VP, I'm kinda waiting to see where we stand at the end of all the claims. The gambiting you described is probably a low possiblity and as a result if no one else claims a rezz then I think we should lynch Plum. It's just hard to swallow that the same night Nico was passed a feitish was the same night he was communed. I'm not sure I believe in coincidences like that in mafia.

~Sotty

[Trilobite]

ben is confirmed because he attempted to kill Spy, right? Is there anything else I am forgetting there?

[Trilobite]

Okay I see. He attempted to kill Spy on the same night Furpants was ritualed. In that case I like kunk's idea for proxying votes to benmage to test suicidal that way. If Percy allows it, it should be quick and easy.

[Benmage]

Looks like suicide testing wont get us anywhere.

So yeah. At this crucial moment in the game there is no reason for TNM to be so difficult. But I don't mind lynching 3 cult in a row. So you guys can drop hassling him.

TNM Claim in your next post, or a L-1 Claim wont fucking save you. Your getting strung up. Quit being a stubborn dumbass. Dumbass.

And I'm V/LA till Monday.

[Trilobite]

@Trilo - If Nico is telling the truth about his rezz, then I don't see a reason to lynch him. Are you implying that the scum are gambiting here, i.e. intentionally used a rez kit on their ritual target so gallow-headed Nico could save himself? I mean, I'll admit that's kind of a genius plan, but how realistic is it?

It's possible they didn't even ritual at all.

Though I forgot he claimed that res...

[Feysal]

Wow. Nicodemus really pulled a rabbit out of his hat with his resuscitate claim. It seems really convenient, but no one else has claimed the res, and Triglav is the only one left who has not claimed. By the way, the reason why I chose Nicodemus was because I had very few alternatives. Triglav had been communed by Trilobite the night before, and I'd communed totallynotmafia myself, which left only VasudeVa and Nicodemus with one insanity for me to choose from.

I have some issues with Benmage's rough draft in #3961. First, as I said yesterday when Nachomamma8 suggested it, two players stalking and murdering each other is really pointless, since it gives two free kills for the scum without anyone being confirmed. Also, by making the plan public, we're really begging for the cult to break it and xvart to take advantage of it. I never thought you could hide a murder by doing it together with an approved murderer, and now that I know you can do that, we have a problem. I believe it to be wishful thinking that the cult would take care of it for us.

N1 - 3 points minimum - Ritual
N2 - 3 points minimum - Ritual
N3 - 4 points minimum - Ritual + Warding DGB
N4 - 3 points minimum - Ritual
N5 - 3 points minimum - Ritual

N1 - BS + Spyrex + C3
N2 - BS + Spyrex + C4
N3 - 2xBS + Spyrex + C5
N4 - BS + C6 + C7
N5 - C3 + C4 + C5

So assuming these minimum actions, 3 cultists have 2 insanities, 2 cultists have 1.

You forget that the requirement for basic ritual is 1/3 of living cultists, meaning after they lost SpyreX they've only needed two to ritual for the past two nights.

An updated insanity list including what people did to get the insanity points would be awesome.

Here you go...

Insanities

Andrius (4) - Twitchy (Fetish N1), Obsession (Commune N2), Solist (Commune N3), Hallucination (Commune N4)
AurorusVox (4) - Twitchy (Grave Rob N4), Taboo (Grave Rob N4), Solist (Stalk N5), Compulsion (Fetish N5)
Benmage (9) - Suicidal (Stalk N0), Obsession (Stalk N1), Twitchy (Grave Rob N2), Taboo (Murder N2), Solist (Fetish N4), Marked (Grave Rob N4), Mutilation (Grave Rob N4), Compulsion (Grave Rob N5), Necrophilia (Grave Rob N5)
Feysal (2) - Twitchy (Commune N4), Solist (Commune N5)
hitogoroshi (5) - Twitchy (Grave Rob N2), Solist (Fetish N3), Obsession (Stalk N4), Compulsion (Stalk N5), Taboo (Fetish N5)
Iecerint (2) - Twitchy (Stalk N4), Taboo (Stalk N5)
kunkstar7 (2) - Twitchy (Grave Rob N2), Solist (Grave Rob N2)
Nachomamma8 (0) - None
Nicodemus (2) - Twitchy (Cower N3), Solist (Fetish N5)
Plum (2) - Twitchy (Grave Rob N4), Solist (Grave Rob N4)
Seacore (6) - Twitchy (Fetish N1), Solist (Grave Rob N3), Obsession (Fetish N4), Taboo (Stalk N4), Hallucination (Stalk N5), Mutilation (Resuscitated N5)
totallynotmafia (1) - Twitchy (Stalk N5)
Triglav (1) - Twitchy (Commune N2)
Trilobite (2) - Twitchy (Grave Rob N3), Taboo (Commune N4)
VP Baltar (5) - Twitchy (Grave Rob N2), Solist (Commune N2), Obsession (Grave Rob N4), Hallucination (Stalk N4), Compulsion (Stalk N5)
VasudeVa (1) - Twitchy (Fetish N4)
xvart (6) - Twitchy (Stalk N2), Solist (Fetish N3), Obsession (Murder N3), Suicidal (Grave Rob N4), Compulsion (Stalk N5)

Incorrect. Cult know where all the "noises" are because they're making them, or we're claiming them. They'll know to rezz or not if need be. Just like they knew I had stalked SpyreX, and knew to rezz him. You should claim.

Now onto why you need to claim your target: it doesn't matter for Cult whether you out your target or not. They will be able to tell who heard noises that wasn't their doing, and they will cross-reference that with people who claimed to have caused those noises. Even if they do not get a definitive answer, they will still be able to narrow it down and chances are they'll know who you're targetting. So if you don't out it, they'll PROBABLY be able to res the target if they want to, regardless. If it's one of them, they'll know they heard a noise and res themselves anyway.

Has no one else but me noticed that every single player except VasudeVa has claimed noise today? You know what that means? The cult must have crafted a load of fetishes last night. If they caused that much noise, by passing and crafting fetishes, they probably won't be able to tell who totallynotmafia stalked based on noise claims. At best they can make an educated guess based on who they believe he would suspect, and odds are they would guess wrong.

The only reason I can think of why he really should claim is so we could plan perfectly who gets to stalk who tonight, and I'm not at all convinced we should be planning that in public.

[AurorusVox]

^That's a fair point but it only works if he's actually stalked a townie. If he stalks a cultist, they'll have heard an unexplained noise, and then that'll tip them off that they're the target. If he tells us his target and that target does not die, we could have a SpyreX situation again.

The worst thing to happen would be him stubbornly not reveal his target, and mafia to res his target and kill him in the same night. If his target does not die we at least need to know who the target was. If he reveals the target today we don't have to waste res kits ensuring he survives to tomorrow. If he doesn't, and gets killed tonight, and flips town...we'll be gutted we didn't know who got res'd by cult. In fact, thinking of that, if he doesn't reveal his target, we may even have to only allow sanctioned rezzes, in case his kill gets intercepted by a townie res kit. I mean, come on. Which is better? Him NOT revealing would actually require MORE night action directing (double res on TNM, no other rezzes) than if he did reveal it :\

[Benmage]

^Agreed. TNM You fool. They could kill you, and Rezz their scum buddy. G-G. Zero reason not to claim.

His latest, "you've given no original opinion, just saying the town wants it the town wants it"...reads to me like scum complaining about the lack of a case on themselves.

I, Seacore, VPB etc etc have all said they wanted this. We've illustrated that scum will know based on noises and our claimed actions who you've stalked. We also illustrated that Murder will show over ritual, unless they chose to rez and ritualize the target(highly unlikely). So again, to make the claim that we've given no original opinion is classic scum stalling asking for a case on them, or disbelieving the evidence of the case on them. Its flail flail flail, scum fail.

Lynch TNM relentlessly. Has anyone been more accurate this game than I? You want to lynch cult 3 days in a row? Don't let him squirm out of this. I am leaving now for the airport. TNM should be dead in 24 hours.

[VP Baltar]

lol, well let's get the night plans in place before we power lynch him ben. I'm not certain at this point, but I'm definitely leaning that he's scum who's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't so he's trying to get one more day out of the game before he goes kaput.

@xvart - The reason not to rush the suicidal testing is that if we do happen upon a lying cultbag while testing immediately, it will put us into night without any kind of action plan. All that stuff needs to be worked out first.

[Nicodemus]

Only the following 7 people should vote for kunkstar:

Nicodemus
Plum
Seacore
Triglav
Trilobite
VasudeVa
VP Baltar

Not sure if this is still on the table but

Vote: kunkstar

I had an early town read on TNM, and I think he makes a good point on keeping his stalk target a secret. However, it seems popular opinion is for him to claim, and so he should.

[Benmage]

Yes, double damned is a good way to put it. I want him lynched because I don't want him to screw with our night actions the way we allowed spyrex to.

[xvart]

Oh yeah, good point VP. We'll have one dead body today, so I'll grave rob that body. I guess I'll search for a piece of equipment tonight as my other action.
UNVOTE:

Also, from an outsider perspective, it could be plausible that I might have successfully stalked last night and could still successfully murder underneath someone else. So if there is a succesful Murder tonight it could be argued that I went the risky route and stalked someone I wasn't sure was going to be stalked to hide under, so I could be a Murderer tomorrow. Then I would stalk the next night and you would have to lynch me the following day as the last possible moment to make sure I couldn't fulfill the murderer win condition. I don't see that as being to bad an option, especially if we lynch two more Cultists in a row (Plum being one of them).

A question I didn't ask Percy which I should have is:

Mods: If someone gets murdered twice in the same night does the front page flavor indicate such or is it the same no matter how many people murdered the dead person?

[Vi]

@Mod:Can we proxy votes?

Not officially. (IANP)

Mods: If someone gets murdered twice in the same night does the front page flavor indicate such or is it the same no matter how many people murdered the dead person?

The latter.

[Benmage]

No xvart, I took necrophilia, ill be grave robbing.

[xvart]

Okay then, so I need to be lynched on D8 regardless.

I'll have the noise/ward/insanity list updated tonight. Triglav is the only player slot that has not posted their CD5.

[Andrius]

Ok, since I'm not enabled to vote kunk then I'll plot it down on TNM, as per Ser Benmage's orders.

Vote: TNM

Also, who's getting replaced? I saw it whilst brousing the Queue.

[xvart]

D6 Noises/Ward List 6.00

Andrius

-

Heard Noises

, Did Not Ward

AurorusVox

-

Heard Noises

, Did Not Ward

Baby Spice

- Lynched D5

Benmage

-

Heard Noises

, Did Not Ward

Nicodemus

Bowser

-

Heard Noises

, Did Not Ward

El Goosuki

- Lynched D3

Fate

- Modkilled D1

Feysal

-

Heard Noises

, Did Not Ward

Furcolow

- Murdered N3

Furpants_Tom

- Killed by Unspeakable Being N2

hitorogoshi

-

Heard Noises

, Did Not Ward

kunkstar7

-

Heard Noises

, Did Not Ward

Lost Butterfly

- Murdered N1

MagnaofIllusion

- Lynched D2

Plum

-

Heard Noises

, Did Not Ward

ReaperCharlie

- Modkilled D1

Wraith

rewq455

- Killed by Unspeakable Being N4

Seacore

-

Heard Noises

, Did Not Ward

SpyreX

- Lynched Day 4

Nachomama

nopointinactingup

Super Smash Bros. Fan

-

Heard Noises

, Did Not Ward

totallynotmafia

-

Heard Noises

, Did Not Ward

Triglav

-

UNKNOWN

Trilobite

-

Heard Noises

, Did Not Ward

VasudeVa

- No Noises, Did Not Ward

VP Baltar

-

Heard Noises

, Did Not Ward

Wickedestjr

- Killed by Unspeakable Being N3

Iecerint

manho Wingless

-

Heard Noises

, Did Not Ward

xvart

-

Heard Noises

, Did Not Ward

Final Day 1 Noise/Ward List

Final Day 2 Noise/Ward/Insanity List

Final Day 3 Noise/Ward/Insanity List (at the bottom)

Final Day 4 Noise/Ward/Insanity List

Final Day 5 Noise/Ward/Insanity List

D6 Claimed Insanities 6.00

Andrius

[4] - Twitchy (N1, Received Fetish), Obsession (N2, Commune), Soloist (N3, Commune), Hallucination (N4, Commune)

AurorosVox

[4] - Twitchy (N4, Rob Grave), Taboo (N4, Rob Grave), Solist (N5, Stalked Benmage), Compulsion (N5, Received Fetish)

Baby Spice

[1] - Twitchy (N3, Communed Furcolow)

Benmage

[9] - Suicidal (N0, stalked Fate), Obsession (N1, Stalked SpyreX), Taboo (N2, Rob Grave), Twitchy (N2, Killed SpyreX), Solist (N4, Rob Grave), Marked (N4, Rob Grave), Mutilation (N4, Received Fetish), Compulsion (N5, Rob Grave), Necrophilia (N5, Rob Grave)

El Goosuki

[1] - Suicidal (N2, Cower)

Feysal

[2] - Twitchy (N4, Commune), Solist (N5, Commune)

hitorogoshi

[5] - Twitchy (N2, Rob Grave), Soloist (N3, Received Fetish), Obsession (N4, Stalked Andrius), Compulsion (N5, Stalked), Taboo (N5, Received Fetish)

Iecerint

[2] - Twitchy (N4, Stalked AurorosVox), Taboo (N5, Stalk)

Nicodemus

[2] - Twitchy (N3, Cower), Solist (N5, Received Fetish)

Kunkstar7

[2] - Soloist (N2, Rob Grave), Twitchy (N2, Rob Grave)

Plum

[2] - Twitchy (N4, Rob Grave), Solist (N4, Rob Grave)

Seacore

[6] -

Twitchy

(N?, Fetish?)

, Soloist (N3, Rob Grave), Obsession (N4, Stalk), Taboo-investigate (N4, Received Fetish), Halucination (N5, Stalked AurorosVox), Mutilation (N5, Died)

SpyreX

[4] - Twitchy (N2, Commune), Taboo (N2, Taboo - Books), Soloist (N3, Rob Grave), Obsession (N3, Rob Grave)

totallynotmafia

[1] - Twitchy (N5, Stalked Unknown)

Triglav

[2] - Twitchy (N2, Communed)

Trilobite

[2] - Twitchy (N3, Rob Grave), Taboo (N4, Commune)

VP Balter

[5] - Twitchy (N2, Commune), Soloist (N2, Rob Grave), Obsession (N4, Stalked Andrius), Hallucination (N4, Rob Grave), Compulsion (N5, Stalked)

VasudeVa

[1] - Twitchy (N4, Received Fetish)

Wicked

[2] - Twitchy (N1, killed and rezzed), Suicidal (N2, Rob Grave)

Wraith

[1] - Twitchy (N1, Received Fetish)

xvart

[5] - Twitchy (N2, Stalked Furculow), Soloist (N3, Murdered Furcolow), Obsession (N3, Received Fetish), Suicidal (N4, Rob Grave), Compulsion (N5, Stalked Benmage)