Not in of itself, no.
But paired with my other reasoning, yes.
Posted: Wed May 23, 2018 11:37 am
by Lady Lambdadelta
In post 4053, Nahdia wrote:If you're willing to share; did Red explain why he was claiming to you?
I would be.
So I was softing some things about my role, which are true, and Red read those things, and messaged me saying "your role revolves around your vote, my role revolves around my vote, I believe your claim and I think we're both town"
and then claimed to me and told me who he suspected.
and I cannot see what you would think he's obvious town for in that claim.
I don't have RF/N_M's claim. An action N1 targeted both of us which I'm pretty certain makes him Town. This action MIGHT have come from Town and is therefore NAI, and it MIGHT have come from scum, but like 4 times out of 5 this is scum targeting two Townies.
I'd rather. It elaborate further. It's already guessable.
and I cannot see what you would think he's obvious town for in that claim.
I don't have RF/N_M's claim. An action N1 targeted both of us which I'm pretty certain makes him Town. This action MIGHT have come from Town and is therefore NAI, and it MIGHT have come from scum, but like 4 times out of 5 this is scum targeting two Townies.
I'd rather. It elaborate further. It's already guessable.
I think you are Town for reasons you are (likely) also aware of. I think it was a scum-motivated night action.
Talk to me please.
It wasn't
I think I'm seeing the pieces now.
Posted: Wed May 23, 2018 11:40 am
by Pine
I'd rather not* elaborate further. Damn autocorrect. It's bad enough when it garbles grammar, that actually changed meaning.
Posted: Wed May 23, 2018 11:40 am
by Pine
Oh. Hmm. I missed that Lovebird soft. Well that probably makes it NAI then.
Posted: Wed May 23, 2018 11:43 am
by mastina
In post 4019, MOMOMEN wrote:or just the fact i've defended town and pushed scum all game? me townreading you shouldn't be the goddamn reason you don't want to lynch me
You should have the self-awareness to know why this post is many levels of 'ew', Eddie.
And a flipped town in the bottom half of your reads. Actually, two, because Momrangal was in the bottom-3-tiers. And a bunch of players who haven't flipped because it's D2 and we only have three flips. And two of your reads are a given because no duh the masons are town so obviously you'd townread them and be correct there. None of that says anything.
And implying it does is also 'ew'.
Posted: Wed May 23, 2018 11:46 am
by mastina
In post 4035, Pine wrote:{Nahdia, Momo/Eddie}
Increasingly confident this is the scumteam.
Not viable on interactions especially one scum down.
In post 4028, Eddie Cane wrote:Mathdinkle claims a 100% confidence townread on redflavour. He can correct me, but if that stands not mafia isnt a valid lynch. I am not overly inclined to do you or nahdia, so Pine and OTM are what's left and you dont want either.
See the thing is your own POE is saying you're scum here.
In post 4037, Nahdia wrote:Well someone's getting falsely towncased here, because I'm not scum. ATM I'm thinking one in {Pine, Math} and one in {LLD, MOMO, Not_Mafia}.
Also this is a super flexible position for scum. "It's two people in all the ones you suspect and also these other four." You're basically painting half the living playerlist at that point.
That is not suspect; I can see Nahdia's process behind that and understand where they are coming from--in fact, it is almost exactly the spot I am coming from and I am town, so you are calling my process scum when I know for a fact it is not.
and I cannot see what you would think he's obvious town for in that claim.
I don't have RF/N_M's claim. An action N1 targeted both of us which I'm pretty certain makes him Town. This action MIGHT have come from Town and is therefore NAI, and it MIGHT have come from scum, but like 4 times out of 5 this is scum targeting two Townies.
I'd rather. It elaborate further. It's already guessable.
and I cannot see what you would think he's obvious town for in that claim.
I don't have RF/N_M's claim. An action N1 targeted both of us which I'm pretty certain makes him Town. This action MIGHT have come from Town and is therefore NAI, and it MIGHT have come from scum, but like 4 times out of 5 this is scum targeting two Townies.
I'd rather. It elaborate further. It's already guessable.
Pine do you scumread me?
For at least the fifth time, I've been thinking you're Town since late D1. I honestly have no idea why I am constantly forced to assert this. Please remember it this time.
Posted: Wed May 23, 2018 6:43 pm
by OnTheMark
I was asking to demonstrate a point.
You said your stuff is "guessable". If scum play similar to how I play scum noting all the PR roles etc saying that it's guessable means you might as well claim.
If you think scum know what something is and town doesn't that's a bad idea.
Posted: Wed May 23, 2018 6:55 pm
by Pine
Yeah, but “I think.”
It does Town zero good to know this information now.
If I’m wrong, and it’s a Town-enacted action, telling scum would let them exploit it.
Stop rolefishing bro.
Posted: Wed May 23, 2018 7:00 pm
by OnTheMark
Ugh I am not rolefishing
I am telling you to be cautious or go whole hog.
Don’t fucking half ass it
Posted: Wed May 23, 2018 7:07 pm
by Pine
But halfassing is the right call here.
Dude don’t treat me like a rookie. I’ve earned my stripes.
So Kokichi was scum off the wagon and was confident there wasn't going to be a scumflip as shown by his self-vote. He could fuck around because scum weren't in any real danger. The question to ask here: all scum off (scumteam is LLD/Lovebird, OnTheMark/Lovebird, or LLD/OnTheMark; I find all of these to be...rather questionable to say the least), one scum on two scum off, or two scum on?
I'm genuinely curious which people think. One scum on, two off, or one scum off, two scum on; it makes a big difference here for scumhunting. CONVENTIONAL wisdom would say two scum on, but I'm not sure I can lock it down.
Spoiler: Additional Rudimentary VCA which is probably worthless thus the spoiler
So there isn't hard data here, but my INSTINCTS tell me that Kokichi Oma didn't want to be associated with the Momrangal wagon--to me, this makes me feel better about Lovebird being town. Potentially also Nahdia, who was also on there, but less so.
So my instincts here say scum aren't focused in any location; they would be evenly distributed. This would make Nahdia and Lovebird be town, and place 0-1 scum in Not_Mafia/Mathdino (doubtful both scum are in the 1s there), 0-1 scum in Pine/MOMOMEN, and 0-1 scum in LLD/OnTheMark, with two of these three groups having one scum and one of these three groups having none.
The key then would be finding which two groups.
If we work on the underlined-as-town, then those groups become 0-1 scum in Not_Mafia/Mathdino, 0-1 scum in MOMOMEN, and 0-1 scum in LLD, leaving possible teams as Not_Mafia/MOMOMEN, Not_Mafia/LLD (doubtful as LLD is voting Not_Mafia), Mathdino/MOMOMEN, Mathdino/LLD, and MOMOMEN/LLD. But that's only under the assumption that the underlined are town.
Btw random number crunching if you do rule out the Not_Mafia/LLD team (not the best assumption, but hey, random numbers are fun), Not_Mafia is only scum in one scenario; LLD is only scum in one scenario; Mathdino and MOMOMEN are scum in two. But if you asked how much trust I place in said numbers, it'd be as close to absolute zero as you can get without reaching zero.
Okay so this jumps out to me as well. Kokichi was on the otherwise-all-town counterwagon to MariaR who we know to be town. I'd strongly think that'd mean both buddies aren't on MariaR, ruling out OnTheMark/Mathdino, OnTheMark/Pine, and Mathdino/Pine. (Of course, two of them are underlined anyway.) There's 0-1 scum in there, and if you operate under the assumption of the underlined as town, it'd be Mathdino.
That still leaves 1-2 scum in the off-voters, the random wagoners. Your options there for a double-scum are Lovebird/LLD, Lovebird/Not_Mafia, Lovebird/Nahdia (definitely not!), Lovebird/MOMOMEN, LLD/Not_Mafia (extremely doubtful), LLD/Nahdia, LLD/MOMOMEN (the only team to not use underlined), Not_Mafia/Nahdia, Not_Mafia/MOMOMEN, or Nahdia/MOMOMEN. A lot of teams, a lot of options.
Even more when you throw in 1 scum in there and 1 scum on MariaR.
In other words--this votecount does give a critical piece of information (the MariaR wagon doesn't have two scum on it), but it's otherwise not very useful.
Legit having trouble bringing myself to care about this game
