Mafiascum.net

In post 4044, Menalque wrote:I've basically been asking for explanations on how people (especially those who know me well, à la S_S, could really reasonably believe that I'm scum this game, and in the lack of those I am assuming scum

I decided that peta is actually probably town and that I'd rather try a last minute S_S wagon than vote someone I know is town, although I will switch back to peta if I can't get any votes on S_S bc at least I know my alignment and I could be wrong on peta

we barely have the numbers for you or peta, let alone SS. i'm not in favour of fracturing the town again at the 11th hour for a hail mary play.

the whole reason i pushed the town into compromising yesterday was to explicitly avoid this situation. chaotic last minute wagons where any vote can be justified almost always end up on town. seriously, i think the only way we get enough votes for SS is if he's town, as scum will happily push there, but if he's scum his buddies can just lurk it out for the last ~6 hours.

Why @peta

(1) it's not about if it's theoretically possible, it's about what's actually likely. it is not likely that I make over 400 posts engaging with multiple players that I'm town if the plan is just to bus me. I wish I cared enough to do that as scum, or had the WIM available, but I do not. I would put in enough effort to not make it look like an obvious bus, which would have been, idk, at least 200 posts ago if not more

(2) ...so what? if my team just buses me today peta remains available as a misguiilo tomorrow? it's my active contesting of him and play against him here that spews him town in worlds where I'm scum

(3) again, you're dealing in possibilities rather than what is likely. you are attempting to create a FALSE narrative that just because scum CAN make a WIFOM play, they're actually likely to. your phrasing betrays you; "I've seen people make unintuitive votes..." <- the very way you talk about it, it's obvious you know it's not the standard approach or common. that being the case, it's on you to explain why me as the scumteam leader (presumably) chooses a WIFOM play in this game. also, switching back later is MUCH harder unless the peta guillotine is actually close. it's never been that close, I've always looked bad. in the case they switch back to bus, the end of the wagon is nearly always where people look first

(4) I'm not discounting the fact it's not a foregone conclusion, I'm saying it's about risk management. if you think there's a decent chance you might go down, it's much better to have that event happen within your control. check my last scumgame -- kerset was going to be bussed, but not on D1 because we wouldn't get cred. so he fake claimed his way out, we executed elsewhere, then lead the wagon on him the next day for the extra cred. the way it happened got me loads of cred -- if town had killed him on their own, I wouldn't have gotten any and townies would have, thereby making them harder to execute. scum is all about control, I know this, you know this, and we each know the other knows this. given that, it's much better to bus me for cred than to try and keep me alive, I'm too tainted

(4b) I'm saying if my partners were on me, they'd be hard pushing not sitting idly by. don't dodge the way of the question by making some generalist comment on pre-flip associatives. we are in a particular game. give me reasons related to this particular game. who, in the world where I'm scum, am I scum with? if you cannot come up with an answer, I must have no partners, therefore I must be town. if you continue to vote for me under that knowledge, you're scum claiming, it's simple as

(5) right, but again -- he's only in the position of being a mix-exe only possible today BECAUSE of my actions in a world where I'm scum. the dichotomy didn't exist before, if my team had just bussed, he would still be viable tomorrow for them

I have no idea what's happening anymore ngl

I have no idea what's happening anymore ngl

In post 4050, Hoopla wrote:

In post 4044, Menalque wrote:I've basically been asking for explanations on how people (especially those who know me well, à la S_S, could really reasonably believe that I'm scum this game, and in the lack of those I am assuming scum

I decided that peta is actually probably town and that I'd rather try a last minute S_S wagon than vote someone I know is town, although I will switch back to peta if I can't get any votes on S_S bc at least I know my alignment and I could be wrong on peta

we barely have the numbers for you or peta, let alone SS. i'm not in favour of fracturing the town again at the 11th hour for a hail mary play.

the whole reason i pushed the town into compromising yesterday was to explicitly avoid this situation. chaotic last minute wagons where any vote can be justified almost always end up on town. seriously, i think the only way we get enough votes for SS is if he's town, as scum will happily push there, but if he's scum his buddies can just lurk it out for the last ~6 hours.

well peta just voted there and he was your top scumread about 24-48 hours ago

infinity will likely vote there if you do too

and S_S as town, even, will vote himself. if he doesn't vote himself at L-1 without the numbers for another wagon, it's a scumclaim

In post 4054, Not_Mafia wrote:I have no idea what's happening anymore ngl

I'd ask why you're voting me but I feel that would probably be redundant

In post 4051, Something_Smart wrote:Why @peta

because i don't know if i think menalque is scum anymore

In post 4050, Hoopla wrote:we barely have the numbers for you or peta, let alone SS. i'm not in favour of fracturing the town again at the 11th hour for a hail mary play.

how is that any moire true for him than it is for ether of us

In post 4046, Something_Smart wrote:What do you even mean by "believe"

https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictio ... sh/believe

In post 4047, Something_Smart wrote:Like I would say you're maybe 55% likely to be scum right now?

mmhm, I would say that based on your knowledge of me, your generally very high level of intelligence and game sense, your level of confidence in the belief that I'm scum should be around 0-5% if we wanna put relatively arbitrary and meaningless numbers on things

In post 4055, Menalque wrote:well peta just voted there and he was your top scumread about 24-48 hours ago

infinity will likely vote there if you do too

and S_S as town, even, will vote himself. if he doesn't vote himself at L-1 without the numbers for another wagon, it's a scumclaim

i literally have to go to work in ~20 minutes, and probably won't have time minus a small break to check in properly. so i'm not putting my vote in limbo on a whim with 5 hours left until deadline.

we tie him at L-3 highest wagon if you shift

please believe, hoopla

you said yourself is the day for making big plays

i mean if anything your vote is doing less on me now

like, of course it's impossible if we don't act like it's possible

that's totally true that's always true, but sometimes amazing things can happen if you just try them

like getting an S_S flip today

I don't believe you are scum, then, and I don't know where you got that idea in your head.

In post 4058, petapan wrote:how is that any moire true for him than it is for ether of us

these are the two established wagons.

by fracturing the town again, you give the option of lurking out a scum wagon or voting a new town wagon to players like dave and N_M. their votes are already in play on the established wagons.

hoopla, you remember how you were talking about wanting me because for you that was the only hope for winning, that I was scum?

I feel it's a similar situation here. I think if S_S is scum, then you/me/peta/infinity are all pretty locktown and we have a very good chance of winning form there

In post 4064, Something_Smart wrote:I don't believe you are scum

yet you are voting me

In post 3703, Best Bird wrote:Inf8nity
SS
Peta/Mena

Could do any of them.

Pls note positioning as you continue this discourse.

positioning noted

would sir like an S_S vote with that?

I would like a SS hammer pls.

could I make sir a counteroffer of the next two hammers in exchange for his vote right now?

mmm

and maybe

a little something else?