In post 3949, Mia and Maya Fey wrote:i don't buy that house townread us than suddenly we're in poe without considering a misclear off the hider
Read 3935 again.
Actually pay attention instead of skimming.
dont care tbh
Then there's no reason for anyone else to care what
you
believe since you are actively choosing ignorance, tbh.
(Not talking to you, Nancy. I don't want you to think I'm confusing you two.)
Okay, is this somehow supposed to make me feel better?
Just clarifying that I was referring to koba and not mistaking his posts for yours.
Get out of your feels.
Posted: Wed Jun 23, 2021 3:56 pm
by mastina
In post 4042, mastina wrote:Scum putting all of their chips on confirming me as town isn't simple.
To reiterate.
Scum putting all of their chips on falsely conftowning a scumastina requires:
The, completely unproven, existence of a scum blocking role--given we've confirmed scum have a killing role (via the two kills N3), and NK15 was an Informed Enabler, this would mean the scumteam in this game literally has more power roles than the town does. It requires Jingle literally giving scum the perfect tools to shut down the town roles completely in their entirety. Shut down the commuter IC, get a free kill there, and permanently block the hider until you have the opportunity to kill them and their target for a two-for-one special. It requires the town power roles to literally be useless to them and the scum to have a perfect counter to every aspect of them. It requires the town's PRs to have zero agency and the scum to have unlimited Agency.
The scumteam to correctly deduce that Not_Mafia is, exactly, a Weak Hider, and not for them to think he's an Ascetic Weak Hider (when that is the role I actually proposed! I literally proposed Ascetic Weak Hider, and an Ascetic Weak Hider would be immune to blocking roles while dieing if hiding behind scum and being immune to death otherwise, clearing town).
The scumteam, upon making that deduction, to deliberately sacrifice their nightkill.
The scumteam to include me.
The scumteam, in spite of including me, operating contrary to my years upon years of established patterns and plays as scum where they make none of the moves I make when I am scum and make entirely different plays.
Scum nightkilling Not_Mafia N2 and failing because Not_Mafia was hiding behind me, conftowning me, requires: literally just the facts we already have available. Not_Mafia being a weak hider, proven via the N3 flips, and the lack of a kill N2, given via the mod's end of N2.
One takes more steps than the other. One requires inventing more explanations than the other. One requires relying on unproven hypotheticals whereas the other relies on the available mechanical facts. One requires weaving a narrative; the other is self-evident.
I'm townreading the rest and want to get the hard lim over with
Really?
This is going to need some explanation.
From our PoV we have found town in everyone but those 2 slots.
Gamma has admittedly played a good game if scum but theres no other explaination
From my PoV, there's no way that Moongrass is town here. I can't see Gamma as scum.
I think you're mistaken on one of House or Mastina.
Why is Mastina scum?
mastina's sole focus today is proving herself as "mech clear" and tunnelling me and house.
mastina's not talking about her reads.
You're town. Gamma's town.
That leaves three scum in House/Moongrass/mastina.
Moongrass is just autoscum, as Mastina and House are never aligned.
mastina doesn't even consider Moongrass scum.
House does.
There's my tiebreaker, but I'm voting Moongrass first.
If House flips scum, I'll admit I was wrong on mastina but that she needs to actually play the fucking game.
Posted: Wed Jun 23, 2021 3:58 pm
by Mia and Maya Fey
In post 3963, Titus wrote:We're going to hit a problem here Mia. I might compromise on House but I'm never voting Gamma. The more I talk about this, the firmer I become in Moongrass scum.
I don’t agree with voting either of the clears today but you’re asking me to reconsider Mastina and I don’t understand why?
In post 3963, Titus wrote:We're going to hit a problem here Mia. I might compromise on House but I'm never voting Gamma. The more I talk about this, the firmer I become in Moongrass scum.
I don’t agree with voting either of the clears today but you’re asking me to reconsider Mastina and I don’t understand why?
I don't agree with voting mastina today either. I mainly want moongrass as they are scum no matter the universe.
I want mastina because she's moongrass's most likely partner via moongrass's TMI and via her mech talk clears me bullshit.
I've been complaining the entire game about mastina.
I put my concerns aside when she was "cleared", but her play had been unendingly frustrating when trying to consider it coming from a town perspective.
She's judging superficial actions as scummy/town without digging down to find scum intent, and I've only known her to do that as scum (but admittedly limited sample size + extended time away == unreliable as a statement of fact).
I've been howling for Moon's head on a platter forever.
What? This is nuts. So your #1 sr is Moon, yet are voting us and possibly sr Mastina? How does any of this make possible sense to you?
I've been complaining the entire game about mastina.
I put my concerns aside when she was "cleared", but her play had been unendingly frustrating when trying to consider it coming from a town perspective.
She's judging superficial actions as scummy/town without digging down to find scum intent, and I've only known her to do that as scum (but admittedly limited sample size + extended time away == unreliable as a statement of fact).
I've been howling for Moon's head on a platter forever.
What? This is nuts. So your #1 sr is Moon, yet are voting us and possibly sr Mastina? How does any of this make possible sense to you?
In post 3923, Mia and Maya Fey wrote:There is a slight non-zero possibility that the clears could potentially have been messed with
Wrong.
Hider procs before JK/roleblocker type roles.
As scum, it serves your win con to undermine town clears.
@Nancy start here and read on until you catch up.
Posted: Wed Jun 23, 2021 4:07 pm
by Mia and Maya Fey
In post 3973, mastina wrote:(Realistically speaking here: I am not voting anyone other than Titus or House here today. Gamma is conftown and even were he not, this is Gamma's towngame anyway so he's not scum.
I don't see a world where both Moongrass and Mia+Maya Fey are scum; I don't see that as being the scumteam here.
So realistically, there is a MINIMUM of one scum in House+Titus. It's still
possible
for one of them to be town, which is why I haven't placed my vote down because IF one is town, I need to make sure I am voting the one that is scum. It's a moot point if both are scum, obv, but IF one is town I need to make sure I vote the one that is scum.)
Re: the bolded, glad to see that unlike House, Mastina’s actually reading the game.
In post 3973, mastina wrote:(Realistically speaking here: I am not voting anyone other than Titus or House here today. Gamma is conftown and even were he not, this is Gamma's towngame anyway so he's not scum.
I don't see a world where both Moongrass and Mia+Maya Fey are scum; I don't see that as being the scumteam here.
So realistically, there is a MINIMUM of one scum in House+Titus. It's still
possible
for one of them to be town, which is why I haven't placed my vote down because IF one is town, I need to make sure I am voting the one that is scum. It's a moot point if both are scum, obv, but IF one is town I need to make sure I vote the one that is scum.)
Re: the bolded, glad to see that unlike House, Mastina’s actually reading the game.
In post 3942, Titus wrote:House, aside from Gamma scum, do you see a scenario where Moongrass is town?
It would pretty much require my lolscenario to be right.
I was townreading the Fey's, that never changed. They only entered my limpool via PoE. It was extremely frustrating to be at odds with my own logic, but I was writing it off to a bad read.
In post 3973, mastina wrote:(Realistically speaking here: I am not voting anyone other than Titus or House here today. Gamma is conftown and even were he not, this is Gamma's towngame anyway so he's not scum.
I don't see a world where both Moongrass and Mia+Maya Fey are scum; I don't see that as being the scumteam here.
So realistically, there is a MINIMUM of one scum in House+Titus. It's still
possible
for one of them to be town, which is why I haven't placed my vote down because IF one is town, I need to make sure I am voting the one that is scum. It's a moot point if both are scum, obv, but IF one is town I need to make sure I vote the one that is scum.)
Re: the bolded, glad to see that unlike House, Mastina’s actually reading the game.
Seriously.
You need to read the fucking game.
This is why we lose this game if it's moongrass+mastina.
In post 3928, Titus wrote:Mod: Can a hider be jailkept or roleblocked if such roles exist?
Explicitly the normal version of the role hider can be both Jailkept and roleblocked, and this is the version of the role used for Not_Mafia. I cannot confirm nor deny whether any variant hiders were used in the creation of the scumteam.
"The Normal version of the Hider is one of the simplest: the Hider, when they use their ability, cannot be killed by actions targeted at them; however, if their target dies as a result of an active killing action (e.g. a factional kill or Vigilante shot), the Hider will also die."
No actions other than killing actions fail against the normal version of hider.
In post 3936, House wrote:I can easily buy into the theory that N_M was jailed/blocked because he was targeting scum, and 2-ferred the next night when he targeted town.
In post 4003, Moongrass wrote:I think it's more likely scum shot NM directly. Occams razor blah blah.
Mia how do you townread this?
Moon is jumping through hoops spewing blatant impossibilities attempting to muddy the water.
I don’t understand why this is scummy?
Posted: Wed Jun 23, 2021 4:17 pm
by mastina
In post 4052, Titus wrote:mastina's sole focus today is proving herself as "mech clear" and tunnelling me and house.
This is a nice narrative and all but it ignores,
1: what I was doing prior to literally 24 hours ago, and,
2: why I am placing that focus on the mech clear in the first place--specifically, pointing out how if you were town you would know that the mech clear IS a mech clear, instead of spending time to deliberately try and invent every possible reason for it to not be one.
I've done plenty of this. In fact you even acknowledge that!
In post 4052, Titus wrote:mastina doesn't even consider Moongrass scum.
I couldn't have not considered Moongrass as scum without talking about my reads, now, could I? The simple fact is that I
have
talked about my reads:
Spoiler: Me talking about my reads
In post 2526, mastina wrote:Moongrass technically could be an early bussed-while-it-was-still-distancing-then-decided-to-rejoin-the-wagon-later, altho I would genuinely say that Moongrass looks town.
So we're guaranteed to have one busser--if Titus isn't scum, guaranteed to have two.
VOTE-wise, I would rank most likely scum busser to least likely scum busser as House > cyrus > Mia and Maya Fey > Moongrass > jjh
PLAY-wise, I would rank most likely scum to least likely scum as...honestly, not sure; House looks town, cyrus's earlygame sucked but later play looked town, Mia and Maya Fey had a dismal earlygame and their latest contributions are in line with that but their midgame looked pretty town; Moongrass has looked town to me the entire game; jjh has looked town to me the entire time; even Titus has had moments of townness.
Loosely speaking my most town to least town would be something like:
jjh
Moongrass
Mia and Maya Fey ~= cyrus ~= House
Titus
And I'd like to reiterate that I've not got good reads right now. Everyone not conftown has reason to be town, when two people are going to be scum.
In post 2820, mastina wrote:Oh hey there's a wagon on Moongrass and Titus is no longer at L-2 which with N_M in the game would be L-1? VOTE: Titus
That means I can safely do this then!
In post 3329, mastina wrote:Titus is scum with her scumbuddy House defending her ~= Titus is scum with a wrong-town-House defending her > Titus is town with a scum-House whiteknighting her for the towncred > both Titus and House are town.
That's what I currently feel like. I feel like the world where Titus and House are both town is the least likely world we live in, and that both of the two most likely worlds have Titus as scum. So I'm not moving my vote from there. Titus scum House scum, Titus scum House town, I'm not sure which but I think one of those two is the most likely right now (followed by Titus town House scum), meaning that I don't want Titus to escape the elimination today.
If it's Titus-House, gg easy I guess.
If it's Titus + someone else, it doesn't look like Moongrass is fairly likely. The most likely are cyrus or Mia+Maya Fey.
If it's House + someone else, it also doesn't look like Moongrass is fairly likely. The most likely would probably be cyrus but this is just guesswork.
Regardless, I feel like a Titus elimination is the best, followed by a House elimination, to give us an idea of what world we live in. Titus-scum, House-scum, or the worst case scenario of neither being scum. (In that world, I'd need to look at which 2-person combo was most likely in Moongrass, cyrus, and Mia+Maya Fey because they would legit be the only options. But I'd prefer to cross that bridge if and only if we came to it.)
In post 3128, jjh927 wrote:I think Cyrus could be partners with anyone, actually
It feels like you had Titus and to a lesser extent House dead to rights--I honestly thought your cyrus vote was baiting Titus, and that Titus took the bait, and that you were going to reveal that it was bait for Titus, because I was that sure you were on the right track with Titus's desperation as it were and that the sudden emergence and willingness on her end to spontaneously wagon cyrus was more proof of her being scum.
In post 3344, mastina wrote:For the record, here's my breakdown of every possible scumteam:
Titus-Moon: unlikely, given the way they have interacted.
Titus-Mia+Maya: definitely possible, as one of the two possibilities I see other than...
Titus-House: has actually astonishingly good logic for why this would be the team backed by both individuals' actions.
Mia+Maya-Moon: Okay this one's possible I guess but not exactly the most probable imo.
Mia+Maya-House: I doubt it. I don't have any concrete reason to doubt it other than gut but I have the doubt there regardless.
House-Moon: Incredibly unlikely given their interactions imo.
I can go into more details for these teams if you want me to break it down in more detail tho, but I think these teams are pretty self-evident.
In post 3268, jjh927 wrote:Titus, you're missing that I think scum would have made the assumption that NM was a weak hider or similar based on how telegraphed his targets were, and so if they wanted to remove him they would need to go for his target
Granted N_M made more 'targeting' posts after that, butstill, it's at least possible scum thought he was a hider on nom.
For the record--I would explicitly expect that to make Titus be scum here as the players most likely to try and kill the hider hide target are imo most to least, Titus > House > Mia+Maya > Moongrass I guess
In post 3393, mastina wrote:Everyone looks town to me, jjh. Titus included. I have to approach things from a more logical objective standpoint: two players who look like they are town, aren't actually town.
When it comes to two players that are looking town but aren't actually town, that means I have to look at what they are doing. The interactions between the slots, along with what their interactions are accomplishing. The normal "this looks like them as town" isn't good enough, because everyone looks like town to me with reasonably compelling reasons for that to be the case.
I can write a towncase on Titus and yes, Titus's more recent posting would be among it, sure.
But I can write a towncase on House.
I can write a towncase on cyrus.
I can write a towncase on Moongrass.
The hardest towncase to write would be Mia and Maya Fey surprisingly enough, but while I might have the most issue in writing a towncase for them, I also have the hardest time slotting them into most scumteams so in that sense there's a decent towncase for them, too.
Two players who I can write a towncase on because they look like town, aren't actually town and are scum.
And when it comes to looking at the deeper level at interactions and motives.
Titus however, when you get past her play looking like town-Titus (which it does), and you look more into what she's doing and the motives for it, does fit as scum quite well. That's not a guarantee that she's scum, but she definitely fits as scum, especially since there's one thing from Titus that I'd expect to see from her if she were town that I'm not seeing. She seems unusually survivalistic and unusually not-fatalistic. Her content looks like her towngame, yes, but deeper down she doesn't feel town to me on a fundamental level.
House's early play looked quite town, but similarly, his later play looks less motivated by "solving the game" and more motivated by "okay I need to troubleshoot how to get to a workable endgame here". He still looks town by play, but the things he is doing look like they are motivated by being scum. It is possible that he is passionate town that is strongly opinionated, but to me he actually looks like he is trying to steer the gamestate in a direction where he has a chance to endgame, and is highly performative.
Moongrass just feels town on every level to me, almost as much as you do, jjh.
Mia and Maya Fey are surprisingly silent all things considered, which is a bit of a concern. But while it is a bit of a concern given the players involved should be more active and involved, it's less damning imo than it could be because while they're not being active, that also means they're not trying to steer the gamestate in a direction that gives scum a possible win.
I realize these are scattered, not satisfactory, notes on where I am right now but I really think that a Titus elimination into a House elimination gives us the best chance at winning here, because while everyone looks town by play, two players must be scum and when I look at the deeper levels, the players who have the highest chances of being scum who look town are Titus and House with the most realistic of scumteam combos between them.
In post 3400, mastina wrote:[ I suppose I can say it this way: I find it town-indicative for Titus, but I find the posting of everyone to be town-indicative, so I have to look beyond what looks town indicative to delve into the possible scumteam combos and what the players are doing given the possible scumteam combos and what they hope to accomplish with their approach.
It's actually a bit of a return to my mastin2 days rather than my mastina days, but in this specific case, I actually felt it was necessary to, so to speak, regress towards that standard, again, because everyone looks town and yet two players by necessity aren't. Two players who to me, look to be town, cannot actually be town.
Trying to weigh surface-level feels for which players feel the most town, and then voting off the ones who feel the least town, just...doesn't feel like it's the way we win here. I genuinely feel the way to win is to look at all the players who look town, and then analyze their possible scumteams, eliminate the impossible pairs, and then judge off of the remaining possible pairs which are the ones which look the most likely to be true, off of what the players are doing rather than how they look when doing it.
My possible scumteam pairings are (not necessarily ordered most to least mind you):
Titus-House
Titus-Mia+Maya
House-Mia+Maya
Moongrass-Mia+Maya (nothing eliminating them as a pair but I think Moongrass is town)
These are the only teams that I see as possible.
And if you look at the play of each individual in question keeping in mind that these are the only possible pairs.
I see Titus and House both maneuvering in ways that feel like they are trying to shift the gamestate in a way that is more favorable to their chances of setting up a viable scum endgame. it doesn't mean Titus and House are for sure scum.
But I see Titus positioning in ways that feel like they are setting up for a chance to endgame, and I see House positioning in ways that feel like they are setting up for a chance to endgame. it feels like the best options are House and Titus here.
In post 3571, mastina wrote:And House placing cyrus at L-1 was utterly unacceptable.
I very much want to vote one of Titus or House right now but I owe y'all the promised due diligence where I actually theorycraft and go over the possible combos.
In post 3462, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Oh and Titus and House openly PR hunting in thread and exposing N_M as a hider for some reason? Where the fuck is the town motivation in that?
A good question!
One which I am tempted, very oh so much tempted, to back with a vote.
I'm not AS sure of this but I am seeing more and more town in them, so I see where this is coming from and overall find myself agreeing.
I also am seeing Moongrass as town here.
There's also another contributing factor.
If either Mia and Maya Fey or Moongrass were scum, all they would need to do to win the game is to sheep me. Insist it is Titus+House, case them, commit to that being the pair, and be on my side, be my ally, try to sway me to their side. If either of them were scum they could just have done that and had a huge chance of winning, by winning over the other (Moongrass calling Mia and Maya Fey would be disproportionately effective because Nancy in particular is a sucker for townreading players who townread her; to a lesser extent, Mia and Maya Fey townreading Moongrass would likely win Moongrass over), and by having me on their side. Me + the other = guarantee of 3 votes at their disposal, and if Gamma backed me or them, that's 4. Enough to get an elimination through.
...Instead?
...Instead, Mia and Maya Fey and Moongrass are showing quite a lot of paranoia towards each other. This pretty much rules out them being scum-scum for sure, but also vastly increases the odds BOTH are town here.
I've not talked about my reads as much as I would like to, I admit. I've not done as much work as I would prefer to have done.
But I've got a lot on my plate right now so I am understandably? A bit...limited...in my contribution ability. I am doing the best I can given the circumstances.
I've been complaining the entire game about mastina.
I put my concerns aside when she was "cleared", but her play had been unendingly frustrating when trying to consider it coming from a town perspective.
She's judging superficial actions as scummy/town without digging down to find scum intent, and I've only known her to do that as scum (but admittedly limited sample size + extended time away == unreliable as a statement of fact).
I've been howling for Moon's head on a platter forever.
What? This is nuts. So your #1 sr is Moon, yet are voting us and possibly sr Mastina? How does any of this make possible sense to you?
ISO me, because you've missed a lot.
Yes I see you’ve unvoted us and now think Moon/Mastina?
