Based on last night I'm actually assuming STD will be the kill tonight but them or DotW being killed isn't actually a mechanical difference.
I've adopted the opinion that 12 v 5 doesn't make sense traitor or not given minis are 10 v 3. You don't give town two players AND give scum two. It doesn't make sense for balance.
Posted: Fri Jul 23, 2021 1:18 pm
by Dwlee99
7 v 1
5 v 1
3 v 1
Ye we have enough lims for this.
Posted: Fri Jul 23, 2021 1:46 pm
by ChaosOmega
In post 4103, Dragon of the West wrote:I was very skeptical of Dwlee for days but honestly I don't think scum!Dwlee pushes against the gamma wagon for so long just to see the wagon turn to scum!Titus and get on board with it. I wasn't letting his Osuka vote carry any wait because that could've been bussing on a goon for the first scum lim of the game but at this point I don't think he's scum. Also, I was trying to trust VFPs reads more as the game went on and he was pretty adamant about Dwlee being town
The wagon on Titus was inevitable when they switched on, after trying to soft-defend Titus:
Titus I can totally see you being town here especially given the FIA WRC game that just ended I'm just like, confused kind of. And my biggest fear here is that the reason I keep getting into these mental ruts is a false assumption on my town reads.
Here's some of my thought processes about how the game:
I start by assuming two scum with or without a traitor as a rhurd member. Looking at interactions throughout the game I get the vibe that Andre/Titus are not a team and something made me think Chaos/Titus aren't a team although I forget what led me to that conclusion. StD/T3 can't be main scum unless gamma is bsing us, but Rathe's interactions with nom and osuka are good. Like maybe too good where it's bussing but I feel like Rathe presented solid reasons for scumreads on both slots and pushed them with some frequency. There is a point around page 30 where VFP questions whether Rathe's push on nom there is distancing, but I like Rathe's pushes.
I think VFP is town for his pushes on nom early and that entire interaction.
DotW duh.
Okay so who does that leave me with?
It leaves me with Titus, Andres, Chaos, and Kyo. Assuming what I read into partner interactions is correct (no Titus/Andre and no Titus/Chaos)
then I'm really left with 2 of {Andres, Chaos, Kyo} or {Titus, Kyo}. Are there any parts of my analysis that don't hold up?
Pedit: I'll respond to that soon™
In post 3890, Dwlee99 wrote:Kyo is like... PoE material. She had the thing with Anya and was defending Anya and I thought she was town for a while in relation to that. A lot of the game I will admit I wasn't trying to sort her because I thought her and Anya were masons so I kind of have head empty on that. I was just thinking about how maybe Kyo makes sense as an elimination here cause if my pairings are right it literally solves the game. That's a big if though.
I could totally see the traitor universe existing where Kyo knows 1.) I have a traitor and 2.) Someone just lied about being in a neighborhood with me and thinks "this is my traitor" leading to all of the things that happened.
Based on where I'm at that would leave STD/T3 as the actual traitor with me leaning towards StD because now that I think about it,
"Titus complained about this thing I did but not Osuka" is a way to plant an associative between Titus and Osuka if STD knows that Osuka is scum.
Moreso meant their activity levels but that's NAGL to me at all
Gamma is not the lim today. Agree that he might be scum, but he has results he can claim tomorrow and we're not in LiLo.
Posted: Fri Jul 23, 2021 1:49 pm
by Dwlee99
I also could have just voted Gamma at any time if I wanted to. You're trying to present my progression as scummy when it's just a completely natural way to react to information and try to process it.
Posted: Fri Jul 23, 2021 1:49 pm
by ChaosOmega
In post 4131, Dwlee99 wrote:I was voting Titus even though you gave me an out to vote Kyo instead and try to push that if I wanted to.
I'm saying you jumped on when the wagon was inevitable. I know you could have voted other people, but you get towncred if you're on her lim. You kept trying to find a way to move the wagon away from her though with the posts I quoted.
Posted: Fri Jul 23, 2021 1:50 pm
by DkKoba
In post 4125, Gamma Emerald wrote:DkKoba all I can say is I’m glad you’ve chosen THIS game to TRULY burn that tell. Because you’re dead wrong.
more interested in your explaination of your actions on the day titus was limmed and your thought processes around your actions wrt titus.
Posted: Fri Jul 23, 2021 1:51 pm
by ChaosOmega
In post 4128, Dwlee99 wrote:Kyo -> Check Chaos/Andres -> Lim Gamma -> Lim Chaos/Andres depending on Gamma check.
Based on last night I'm actually assuming STD will be the kill tonight but them or DotW being killed isn't actually a mechanical difference.
I've adopted the opinion that 12 v 5 doesn't make sense traitor or not given minis are 10 v 3. You don't give town two players AND give scum two. It doesn't make sense for balance.
Also this is wrong. Andres is not in the check pool for Gamma. I know you're desperately trying to keep him as a mislim option, but no.
Moreso meant their activity levels but that's NAGL to me at all
Gamma is not the lim today. Agree that he might be scum, but he has results he can claim tomorrow and we're not in LiLo.
I ignore PR claims, I only look at dayplay. I will look at roles when it is crossreferenced with their dayplay primarily. (i.e. if they clear someone that would be extremely unlikely to clear as a scum)
Posted: Fri Jul 23, 2021 1:52 pm
by Dwlee99
Inevitable? Bruh
Pedit: sorry I don't have mod information that says he is town I guess?
Posted: Fri Jul 23, 2021 2:02 pm
by ChaosOmega
You keep trying to play both sides of the fence with Andres, saying you're town reading him but still throwing shade on his slot:
In post 3987, Dwlee99 wrote:Andres why are you back now after basically never posting for a while?
In post 3990, Dwlee99 wrote:T3 was literally doing nothing I wouldn't kill him.
I'm asking because Andres has this sudden burst of energy that feels weird. Like "oh shit I have to play now cause it's just me."
In post 3992, Dwlee99 wrote:Well it's not so good job. I was townreading you end of yesterday and that hasn't changed, it's just that after seeing you hard lurk it's weird.
What are the chances that you think Titus and Andres are the last 2 scum, Gamma claims they're going to investigate in {Titus, Andres, T3}, and they decide to chance it and hope he checks T3 instead of just killing him? If you think the chances are decent, I disagree with you wholeheartedly. If you don't think it's likely at all, I don't understand keeping Andres in the PoE pool.
Posted: Fri Jul 23, 2021 2:02 pm
by DkKoba
Chaos can you explain why you think Dwlee is scum holistically, meaning like considering everything as a whole from their play?
I get the vibe they are town based on my experience with their slot in the past.
Posted: Fri Jul 23, 2021 2:03 pm
by DkKoba
Dwlee, other than being on a CW to titus, why would you consider Chaos scum here?
Posted: Fri Jul 23, 2021 2:04 pm
by DkKoba
Assuming of course they are trying to sort you in good faith - which I do believe because a late vote on a scum wagon is not exactly the best of looks when its a very solid wagon.
Posted: Fri Jul 23, 2021 2:09 pm
by Dwlee99
Spoiler:
In post 3766, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:Chaos' progression on Gamma looks sus to me, I dont think we have to lim Gamma today. Rathe is simply not scum with osuka
In post 1627, VFP wrote:I think we just go Titus.
Scum killing Nero show either a threat there or setting up Titus more. However, I don't think they target Nero as a protective PR, meaning that this wasn't a consideration when killing and most likely means Titus is lying.
In post 1687, petapan wrote:i don't think nero is a kill titus would never make but i just want to see more from her today instead of jumping to a conclusion
i agree, im not saying nero is a kill titus never would make. i'm just saying it's also a kill that, if titus is town, scum still couldve made for that exact reason
In post 2160, Dwlee99 wrote:@Osuka Post Dunn flip? I don't see what would make it change. I like your point on vaxkiller and I'm fine throwing that slot out the window if we have to. I still think t3 is a good wagon and I want to say there though. Here are some of my thoughts on t3 summarized:
I don't like how T3 seems to be playing both "sides" of the game here, questioning the DotW + DGB + Titus town block claim but then voting with them on Anya is super weird. I also feel like his absence in light of the claim from Anya + wagon on him is weird, like he is hoping he can just pretend to have been gone and leave his vote there and conveniently avoid the wagon along with it. I know t3's playstyle is kinda like it has been this game, but I think trying to lurk through pressure is super scummy and made even worse by the fact that he is voting a slot that claims town power role and who I believe. If we could force t3 back into the game at least to lock him into a claim that would be great.
I was asking does the majority of the game consider dotw titus and dgb a townblock.
Vax/DGB/Titus and I think Petapan
I need to read more dotw. T3, I feel like your quieter this game, any reason why?
I'm not on on peoples town lists yet prolly, but I will be.
Does Vax not put any of his scum partners in their town block?
In post 2160, Dwlee99 wrote:@Osuka Post Dunn flip? I don't see what would make it change. I like your point on vaxkiller and I'm fine throwing that slot out the window if we have to. I still think t3 is a good wagon and I want to say there though. Here are some of my thoughts on t3 summarized:
I don't like how T3 seems to be playing both "sides" of the game here, questioning the DotW + DGB + Titus town block claim but then voting with them on Anya is super weird. I also feel like his absence in light of the claim from Anya + wagon on him is weird, like he is hoping he can just pretend to have been gone and leave his vote there and conveniently avoid the wagon along with it. I know t3's playstyle is kinda like it has been this game, but I think trying to lurk through pressure is super scummy and made even worse by the fact that he is voting a slot that claims town power role and who I believe. If we could force t3 back into the game at least to lock him into a claim that would be great.
I was asking does the majority of the game consider dotw titus and dgb a townblock.
Vax/DGB/Titus and I think Petapan
I need to read more dotw. T3, I feel like your quieter this game, any reason why?
I'm not on on peoples town lists yet prolly, but I will be.
Does Vax not put any of his scum partners in their town block?
Yep I definitely only suspected Titus when it was inevitable. She has one vote, I un E-1 Gamma and then make a series of arguments pointing to Titus!scum.
Posted: Fri Jul 23, 2021 2:11 pm
by ChaosOmega
In post 4140, DkKoba wrote:Chaos can you explain why you think Dwlee is scum holistically, meaning like considering everything as a whole from their play?
I get the vibe they are town based on my experience with their slot in the past.
He gives off defensive vibes trying to justify his play and why he's not scum, he's very wishy-washy on his reads and there's no real conviction, he tries justifying a lot as PoE, and then will waffle back and forth forever, a lot of his arguments are true on a surface level but to me don't hold up to scrutiny (e.g., taking credit for the lims on osuka and Titus because he voted them at the end and ignoring his multiple posts for each beforehand trying to derail the wagons saying that it's natural town thought progression).
Posted: Fri Jul 23, 2021 2:12 pm
by ChaosOmega
Weird, it's like if you post 8000 things and don't have a backbone and stick to anything, you can find good quotes that you said for any situation.
Posted: Fri Jul 23, 2021 2:13 pm
by Dwlee99
The Poe pool to me is literally everyone but me/Koba/DotW/STD.
@koba: you weren't there for last day phase or day two. I pushed a wagon off of town onto scum, and then yesterday I was the first real voice talking about killing Titus. Chaos is playing up my doubts while I was gauging my own confidence in my read to discredit that I am probably the reason gamma is still here.
Pedit: yea I said "Osuka I'm PoEing you" and that isn't a CONFIDENT read. Why would I be confident on that ever?
Posted: Fri Jul 23, 2021 2:13 pm
by ChaosOmega
Your posts happened earlier in the day, my quotes with you were later, when you were trying to defuse the wagon and failed.
Posted: Fri Jul 23, 2021 2:15 pm
by ChaosOmega
You were the first real voice talking about killing Titus? Absolute nonsense. There was a giant wagon on her D3 that you decided to ignore to vote for Anya who you swore was town.
Posted: Fri Jul 23, 2021 2:17 pm
by Dwlee99
You're creating intent where there isn't any. I wasn't "trying to defuse the wagon," I was figuring out my read. VOTE: Chaos
I can't remember if I'm voting here already. This push isn't good faith.
Pedit: I was the one bringing it up D4. Did you even bother reading the posts I quoted or any of the context? STD was just sitting on the wagon, sure, but he wasn't casing Titus or doing anything to push her elimination. And then when Gamma is at E-1 and it seems like he is gonna be hammered I unvote and case Titus.