TM 2021 Large Normal 2: Wikipedia Integer Facts (Over)

[innocentvillager]

I'm still suspicious of jjh but I'm willing to sheep Mastina's meta read on him for now

why do you put so much stock into mastina's completely unexplained meta read here?

[Luca Blight]

I'm not really putting that much stock into it - I'm still suspicious of him as I said. I prefer to elim the other people I mentioned so I'm fine leaving jjh be for now.

[innocentvillager]

i just don't understand why you're okay "sheeping Mastina's meta read on him for now" though

[Luca Blight]

I don't understand why you don't understand

[innocentvillager]

lol can you just explain why you said "I'm willing to Mastina's meta read on him for now"

also, ive noticed your team has been fairly absent from this game more than I'd expect? is this an intentional choice on your teams part?1

[Luca Blight]

I don't strongly SR jjh. I think he's played it safe and his content has been lacking, but if that's normal in terms of his Town!meta then fine I guess. I TR Mastina and judging from her Titus case she clearly has a memory for meta, so I'm fine sheeping her opinion for now.

My team give opinions when I ask for them. Is there something you want me to ask them?

[innocentvillager]

huh, that explanation actually makes a lot more sense than i thought it was going to make, thanks

and no not specifically, i was just wondering in general how your team dynamics are. if it's intentionally just a "we'll give opinions if you ask" attitude then fine

[Luca Blight]

In terms of 'intentional choice' the answer is probably yes. Joq replaced into another game and didn't want any opinions etc while catching up in order to get a fresh view of the game, and it worked well, so they suggested I should do the same. I'm pretty much flying solo but asking for opinions on slots I can't much of a read on.

[innocentvillager]

fwiw, i think your response here is likely to be anti-indicative of a town!jjh scum!Luca world, because I don't think you would back off a town wagon candidate like that without using it as a posture-excuse to look towny (i had to interrogate the reasoning out of you rather than you presenting it yourself to look towny)

it suggests to me that you're more likely to be town genuinely trying to sort jjh using a variety of different inputs (such as looking at players like mastina's strengths, memory for meta in this case), or you're scum opportunistically moving off your buddy

[innocentvillager]

Joq replaced into another game and didn't want any opinions etc while catching up in order to get a fresh view of the game, and it worked well, so they suggested I should do the same.

did they specifically say "while catching up"? because you've been caught up for a while right?

[Luca Blight]

Yes, they didn't want to influence my view of the game or my reads as I was catching up. They said they are only loosely following the game but are happy to take a closer look if I need a second opinion on something, or to help with meta on certain players.

[Luca Blight]

bell improving

Can you talk me through your read progression on Bell?

[Titus]

@mastina, If Ythan is town, then I have to go really deep into my bag of tricks and have to postulate Luca scum and that LLD was wagoned as a chainsaw for being right on hercule.

I am more sure on Luca being town than I am on Ythan but I do indeed think both are town.

I'm offering Bell for today with the opportunity to sort further later--take it or leave it.

Unlike you to me I'm not going to go "Titus is scum with Bell for refusing to vote there" if you choose not to; I'm not going to wagon you if you refuse; explicitly there's no consequences to you declining, except that it'll mean it's just that much harder to get a scum elimination in on Bell.

I'm literally confused. To believe that Ythan and Luca and I are all town means that all 5 wagons yesterday were on town. It is a conclusion I have trouble getting down with.

[innocentvillager]

we already know LLD and DGB were town so something something gamblers fallacy

also, the basal probability of 5 random people being town is about 23%, which isn't that low, and that's not accounting for the 2 confirmed townflips we have

[Cephrir]

titus will tell you it's not random because of magic

[AGar]

5 random people

I mean, it's not straight up random though because wagons formed and dissipated based on something.

[Ythan]

I sure hope that doesn't make hitting town five times MORE likely but who knows.

[AGar]

I can't wait for someone to come in with another fucking research paper that shows that we're less accurate than random selection in situations like that.

[innocentvillager]

i mean, if townies had completely random reads, it probably WOULD be more likely that 5 wagons land on 5 townies because scum can influence the wagons away from each other

so there's probably a point if townies have like X% marginally better reads than random for which 23% is a reasonable number

but we're off topic lol regardless of the actual rate all im trying to say that it's well within a reasonable distribution that we wagoned 5 town players yesterday and that we shouldn't just assume 1+ scum in Ythan/Titus/Luca

[Cephrir]

yeah that assumption also just isn't really how probability works.

although i wouldn't personally be very convinced by it, i am more understanding of the idea that competing wagons are less likely to both be on scum (since scum would presumably be doing something to alleviate that situation). scum are the only ones that are informed, the rest of us are just making educated guesses, so i see no reason we couldn't land on town multiple times

[mastina]

You yourself have taken similar positions on wagons in the past. You're intentionally ignoring those past experiences in service to your current reads.

Oh I've called things scum theater before, sure, where things that people thought were TvT were SvS, sure enough.

None of those involved two slots heatedly going at each other, one of them fakeclaining a guilty on the other, the other doubling down on that making the one scum and claiming that as a VT the guilty was utterly impossible, and then the claimer retracting the guilty.

[mastina]

you either agree on something, or you don't agree on anything
if the first one is town!indicative, the second one HAS to be scum!indicative, because as I understand it those are the only two possibilities

No?

When Titus and I are town, we can both have a lack of agreement.
When Titus and I are of opposite alignments, we WILL have a lack of agreement.
When Titus and I are town, we can both have agreement.

Those are the three possibilities.
There's no way to distinguish the first from the second. When there's a lack of agreement, it could be Titus town or Titus scum.
But because when Titus and I are different alignments, we usually don't have agreement, the presence of agreement is a good indicator of Titus being town.

this whole game, you have both spouted many, many opinions

Yes, and the whole time they were polar opposites, until now.

So yes--two things in common IS enough to give massive pause.

It's a part of the Titus-mastina dynamic.
Yes, Titus can agree with something I've said--but coming to the same conclusion as me without me having said it first is where the importance is.

It's a bit hard to explain, but genuinely, two posts is enough to give hesitance on Titus.
It's not enough for a full reversal because the full synergy isn't there in full effect.

[mastina]

I'm literally confused. To believe that Ythan and Luca and I are all town means that all 5 wagons yesterday were on town. It is a conclusion I have trouble getting down with.

May I present you a solution to your dilemma?

Vote Count 1.14

Lady Lambdadelta

(6): DrippingGoofball, Xtoxm, mastina, Ythan, Luca Blight, Hopkirk

the worst

(6): jjh927, Winter Flakes, Titus, Cephrir, OkaPoka, Dannflor

DrippingGoofball

(2): Dunnstral, the worst

Hopkirk

(2): Almost50, AGar

Dunnstral

(1): innocentvillager

Xtoxm

(1): Lady Lambdadelta

Vote Count 1.15

the worst

(6): jjh927, Winter Flakes, Titus, Cephrir, OkaPoka, Dannflor

Lady Lambdadelta

(6): DrippingGoofball, Xtoxm, mastina, Ythan, Hopkirk, innocentvillager

DrippingGoofball

(2): Dunnstral, the worst

Hopkirk

(2): Almost50, AGar

Xtoxm

(1): Lady Lambdadelta

Not Voting

(1): Luca Blight

Vote Count 1.16

the worst

(6): jjh927, Winter Flakes, Titus, Cephrir, Dannflor, innocentvillager

Lady Lambdadelta

(4): DrippingGoofball, Xtoxm, mastina, Ythan

DrippingGoofball

(3): Dunnstral, the worst, OkaPoka

Hopkirk

(1): AGar

Xtoxm

(1): Lady Lambdadelta

AGar

(1): Hopkirk

Not Voting

(2): Luca Blight, Almost50

Bell was the replacement for the worst.

[Cephrir]

unrelated to the above, VOTE: Bell

[Bell]

You yourself have taken similar positions on wagons in the past. You're intentionally ignoring those past experiences in service to your current reads.

Oh I've called things scum theater before, sure, where things that people thought were TvT were SvS, sure enough.

None of those involved two slots heatedly going at each other, one of them fakeclaining a guilty on the other, the other doubling down on that making the one scum and claiming that as a VT the guilty was utterly impossible, and then the claimer retracting the guilty.

You don't see how a natural reaction to someone derailing a ythan wagon would be skepticism? You've called more complex wagons and plays wrongly and rightly in every conceivable combination. You're using rhetoric to argue this was too complex to be a scum gambit when the simplicity of the move is not nearly as complex as you're making it out to be. If you want to push, then push but you're clearly being dishonest in your presentation. Which does not help me sort you.