Mafiascum.net

Titus was bleeding obvtown here. I would have locktowned her had I been town.

Things didn’t necessarily go according to plan. Nom wasn’t killed to frame Moon, we thought he waq vig and would kill her for us.

We thought NM was disloyal vig and dgb was commuter doc.

Only day, we got the expected results of our NAs was the lasr one.

We didn’t expect Nom to flip vt. We didn’t think NM was hider but close to deadline consodered it worth a shot.

Oh and NK15 wasn’t either supposed to claim commuter or vote me. We all expressly told him to claim his true role of commuter enabler because we thought that was his best chance of avoiding the elim.

We probably would have had to bus him at some point if we didn’t want dgb at endgame though, so none of that was planned.

I had a great team with Gamma and an amazing hydra partner in Koba. Bioth of them were stars. Both of them were brilliant. And we also chose tye right roles, inretrospect.

When I said my head was inning, that was true. I was legit shocked that Mastina was bring sr despite the clear.

I really didn’t want to be scum here and if not stump, hopefully tpr but I felt that I had to play 3D chess in this game. One strategy just to keep NM off of me and another just to try to win. Gamma was only confitown until we flipped but his actions last day, made Mastina look more likely to be my buddy, so he was probably endgaming no matter what.

I almost never townread Titus in any game no matter their allignment so that's definitely a slot i have trouble sorting for some reason.

In post 4174, northsidegal wrote:yeah this setup is ridiculously scumsided

Koba and me actually thought the exact opposite. Had NM checked me, it could have all come crashing down on us.

Nsg, commuter IC probably wasn’t optimal. Stumps failed to choose good endgame 1 shots as well and most importantly, you need to read Titus a lot better. She was so obvtown here it hurt.

We thought Norwee would doc someone and we we’re pretty damn sure it wouldn’t be either Titus or Moon. We also considered killing her instead of Titus.

I have to say despite the scum sided setup town played remarkably well

In post 4176, NorwegianboyEE wrote:I almost never townread Titus in any game no matter their allignment so that's definitely a slot i have trouble sorting for some reason.

Her reactions to the NK15 wagon spewed her town, because she clearly believed he actually was a commuter.

In post 4178, Gamma Emerald wrote:I have to say despite the scum sided setup town played remarkably well

Idk, I don’t think it was scumsided but what I’ve learned from this and 2 versus gales are, you need to always consider balance.

I had a rolestop but nothing else. There was nothing I could do had NM visited me. We could have no killed but that probably would have been it.

So I adamantly disagree with that.

Town also rushed miselims on Cyrys and Tea and didn’t listen to the stumps. I would have been extremely upset by that had I been town.

I don’t know why Titus had Gamma as obvtown here - other than the clear. He played really well but I probably wouldn’t have townlocked him here.

I think Cyrus was pretty much confitown due to Nom kill. Why does scum!Cyrus ever kill Nom here?

Oh apparently the vig wasn't strongman.

That drops it from 90-95% scumsided down to...

...Oh.

...89-92.5% scumsided or so.

This is effectively a mini.

In a Mini Normal, the expected number of town eliminations before lylo is 3. (This, regardless of a scum elimination. 13 - 2 = 11 D2. 11 = 2 = 9 D3. 9 - 2 = 7 D4. If no scum has been eliminated, this is lylo. If one scum has been eliminated, 7 - 2 = 5, still lylo even with a scum eliminated.)

A scum Vig automatically drops that down to two.

The town can only mislim twice before they are endgamed.

This is made even worse if the hider is killed.

13 - 2/3 = 10/11. 10/11 -2/3 = 8/9 8/9 - 3/4 = 5. You could end up with three scum alive to two town alive on N3.

I don't care how strong the town's roles are; having the town need to play literally perfect or else be fucked by the scum roles is never going to not be strong for the scum.

And that's just from the one scum vig.

Then you throw in the rolestopper--why wouldn't the scum rolestopper just park their rolestop on their non-commuter-enabler scumbuddy? Of course they would. So with them permanently protecting the scum vig, the scum vig would have total impunity. This, furthered by being able to select which scum got which role. You could give your highest deadweight member the commuter enabler and then let them live for however long. You protect your second-weakest member by parking the rolestopper on them, basically guaranteeing their safety with no guilty to be formed, ever.

All the while, the town's role which is explicitly a role that cannot get hard-innocents-beyond-any-question-of-innocence, whose one purpose in the game is to get a hard guilty, can't actually realistically get that hard guilty beyond sheer freak occurrence. The weak hider gets a guilty on the commuter-enabler? Scum benefit from this because they kill the weak hider and disable the commute from the IC and get a free kill in there. The weak hider targets the vig? False innocent there that gives scum a disproportionate advantage. The weak hider's only guilty that is a guilty is on the rolestopper...who, again, the scum can tailor to be the player least likely to be investigated.

The weak hider can still get utility from generating innocents which the town doesn't know are definite innocents if the town treats those innocents as innocents...but that works to the scum's advantage with a false innocent.

All in all the scum had a perfect counter to every town role, and then some.

The 1x doctor wasn't even an incentive for the treestumps to retire. You have one player, with one shot, at maybe preventing a kill, but in a game where scum have two kills on N3, can kill the hider, and saving the hider could actually generate a false innocent (due to the way a Normal hider works, a doctor protecting them would save them from hiding behind scum), meaning that the doctor could actually work the town.

The town's roles have basically no synergy and the scum's roles synergize literally perfectly.

From a setup point of view, I do mean it; town could, statistically speaking, short of freak occurrences like a D1 elimination on the scum rolestopper, never win this game. It would legit take that level of freak occurrence for a town win. Literally eliminating the scum's rolestopper, when the scum have every tool to prevent exactly that, both from selecting which scum have which role and push come to shove, scum able to form a counterwagon. (Heck you could even theoretically just have your scum commuter-enabler blatantly claim scum if the scum rolestopper is being wagoned to guarantee the scum rolestopper doesn't die D1.) Something that could occur in a small fraction of games, the 7-11% range of them, but which statistically speaking they are almost never going to do.

Without the town taking out one of the scum's stronger roles in the first two days, they are never going to win this game. In any scenario where both the scum rolestopper and the scum vig live to see N3, I would rate scum's chances of winning the game at 99.99%. Basically impossible for the town.

But that said, again, still was a town loss, which I take a large amount of responsibility for. Even if I made the reasonable assessment that scum couldn't have a third power role that blocked the hider without the game being ludicrously scumsided when the scum did have a third power role that blocked the hider because it was ludicrously scumsided, meaning that Gamma was off the cards, still on me for not eliminating Mia + Maya Fey. Still something I take fault for and the town as a whole also failed to get rid of. (After all, it was 3/4 town votes in mylo on the mislim. Gamma didn't NEED to scumclaim.)

yeah we were at a point where 1 mistep made it all come crashing down.

what was the stump special power?

I was so disappointed at the cyrus lim lol, anyone that has ever played with cyrus should have seen town!cyrus here! Gah!

you also have 2 conftown voices that cannot be removed from the game by scum that are preselected.

weak hider and commuter IC is also ridiculously OP in a closed setup. if the rand was different we were a lot more fucked here.

gamma breaking his scumtells and not doing them in this game is impressive, good on him maintaining the townread. that was an incredible effort from him.

When NM said he was going to visit me, I actually asked Jingle if we could concede. I seriously thought we were fucked but Koba got me to calm down and tried to not let it affect me. When our NK on NM failed on N2, I was pretty much resigned to losing and we literally switched the NKs at the last minute and then we hit the motherload. We weren’t initially going to kill jjh but just NM and dgb.

In post 4183, nomnomnom wrote:I was so disappointed at the cyrus lim lol, anyone that has ever played with cyrus should have seen town!cyrus here! Gah!

I had no meta on him but your NK should have absolutely townspewed him. I don’t understand how no one made that connection. You really fooled me, I was certain you were vig, because you sounded just like you did in Boon uPick.

In post 4183, nomnomnom wrote:I was so disappointed at the cyrus lim lol, anyone that has ever played with cyrus should have seen town!cyrus here! Gah!

Hey, I hard-defended cyrus! I brought up very very strong very very valid points for cyrus being town!

It's not MY fault that SOMEONE decided to, knowing Not_Mafia was in the game, place cyrus to L-1. (Again, I can take 40-60% of the blame for the loss, but how D3 ended is definitely within the other 40-60% that was absolutely NOT my fault.)

In post 4188, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:

In post 4183, nomnomnom wrote:I was so disappointed at the cyrus lim lol, anyone that has ever played with cyrus should have seen town!cyrus here! Gah!

I had no meta on him but your NK should have absolutely townspewed him. I don’t understand how no one made that connection. You really fooled me, I was certain you were vig, because you sounded just like you did in Boon uPick.

I cackled in the dead PT when I was told that was the reason I got NK'd LOL
I tend to draw the scum NK a surprisingly often amount of times as VT

In post 4185, DkKoba wrote:weak hider and commuter IC is also ridiculously OP in a closed setup. if the rand was different we were a lot more fucked here.

+1

It clearly wasn’t scumsuded. I had no protection agains an NM visit. I was completely helpless to do anything about it, so I think it’s pretty much ridiculous to call this game scumsided.

And once we’re flipped, suspicion immediately falls on the clears, so our could have very well fucked Gamma but he was in the best position after House flip but that wasn’t due to setup.

Also, had Gamma picked RS and we picked 1 shot vig, game would have turned out very differently.

Why did 3 town die in one night?
So N_M and JJH got both destroyed, but what was the third?

Seriously, if i was a weak hider here i would probably do shit like crumbing 100% of the time, and then when outed i'd openly claim to target someone i townread but then actually target someone else (which i would also crumb).

In post 4189, mastina wrote:

In post 4183, nomnomnom wrote:I was so disappointed at the cyrus lim lol, anyone that has ever played with cyrus should have seen town!cyrus here! Gah!

Hey, I hard-defended cyrus! I brought up very very strong very very valid points for cyrus being town!

It's not MY fault that SOMEONE decided to, knowing Not_Mafia was in the game, place cyrus to L-1. (Again, I can take 40-60% of the blame for the loss, but how D3 ended is definitely within the other 40-60% that was absolutely NOT my fault.)

No one’s blaming you for that but this is why days should not be rushed. It’s so extremely easy for scum to look good and because the VCA looks great for them or it obviously did for us. As town, I never want to rush days unless it’s really really obvious who scum is.

In post 4192, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Why did 3 town die in one night?
So N_M and JJH got both destroyed, but what was the third?

Because Gamma had a 1 shot vig and we killed jjh who NM hid behind and dgb was the other kill. We actually really didn’t know he was hider, we just thought our chances of durectly killing him N3 weren’t great.

In post 4193, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Seriously, if i was a weak hider here i would probably do shit like crumbing 100% of the time, and then when outed i'd openly claim to target someone i townread but then actually target someone else (which i would also crumb).

Yeah well, when he didn’t die N2, we ultimately decided our best play was to kill both jjh, dgb and probably pray.

Anyway, I’m extremely glad it’s over. With few exceptions, I generally much prefer to play town.

When NK15 reads this thread, Gamma, Koba and me would really love to know why you claimed commuter instead of commuter enabler?

Basically, Koba, me and Gamma were extremely coordinated in our actions but NK15 was pretty much doing his own thing.

He wasn’t supposed to either claim commuter or vote us, so I really felt I had no choice but to bus after that.

He was supposed to claim enabler and hopefully survive D1.

In post 4191, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:

In post 4185, DkKoba wrote:weak hider and commuter IC is also ridiculously OP in a closed setup. if the rand was different we were a lot more fucked here.

+1

With respect to DKKoba and you, Nancy:
You are not reviewers especially for Normal Games.

nsg and I both are and very very experienced in that regards.

When we say that this game was tremendously scumsided, barring freak occurrences--we mean it.

There was exactly one scenario where the town gets any positive outcome from their roles, the weak hider targeting the scum rolestopper.

Do you know what the mathematical odds of that are?

N1, it is 1/11. (13 alive D1, minus the D1 elimination, 12 into night, hider can't self-target so 11 targets.) 9.090909090909091% chance.
ASSUME the weak hider lives (not a guarantee).
N2, it is 1/8. (11 alive D2, 10 after the elimination, hider makes it 9, but they have an innocent, and presumably won't hide behind their innocent.) 12.5% chance + 9.090909090909091% chance = 21.59090909090909% chance.
ASSUME the weak hider lives again (not a guarantee).
N3, it is 1/5. (9 alive D3, 8 after the elimination, hider brings it down to 7 but they have two innos and presumably won't hide behind them.) 20% chance + 21.59090909090909% chance = 41.59090909090909% chance.

Oh and by the way, on N3 if there's no scum dead, that hider hiding behind the scum rolestopper? Can trigger an automatic scum win. So even IF they hide behind the right scum, they can end up actually literally costing the town the game. If the town was expecting only 1-2 town to die in the night, they could actually literally lose the game from it being 3. So even that 41.59090909090909% chance? Not necessarily a good thing for the town!

That's just from the sheer statistical probability. Just from the raw numbers, the outcome you describe is, statistically speaking, unlikely to happen.

Then you throw in that scum get to choose who the scum rolestopper is...after they have seen a portion of D1 play out. This means that the scumteam can see which of their members are most suspicious and which are least suspicious and from reading the game thread, select the player least likely to be investigated to hold that role. Unless they completely read the gamestate wrong and were totally off the mark, that makes the odds much much lower than the numbers would suggest. It literally could only occur in freak occurrences, by my estimation, the 7-11%. Something that is statistically theoretically possible from sheer raw bad luck on the scumteam's part and good luck on the town's part, but which 9 times out of 10, won't happen.

The IC commuter isn't nearly as broken as you say, because the scumteam can reasonably deduce that the commuter is the IC. That means instead of wasting their nightkill there, they wait until the commuter-enabler is dead to kill the IC. That, aside from the fact that the IC is only one conftown with no way of generating more.

Then you throw in that the scum's trump card, the rolestopper, even in those freak 7-11% occurrences? Still doesn't spell game over for the scumteam. Inherent in the weak hider getting a guilty is the weak hider being dead after having gotten it, unable to generate more results. And while one guilty would be a guilty on scum, every innocent the weak hider got before the guilty? Thrown out the window once the scum rolestopper flips. So you end up with exactly one conftown, the IC, not 2-3 conftown. Because the weak hider couldn't generate actually solid 100% beyond all reasonable doubt, innocents. It had two possible guilties, and arguably both still give benefit to the scumteam by eliminating the investigative and hindering the town's roles. (Commuter-enabler guiltied? After elimination, disables the IC's commute. Rolestopper guiltied? After elimination, casts doubt on all prior innocent results.)

There's no realm where this isn't a scumsided setup. It literally takes freak occurrences, statistical abnormalities, for the town to have a CHANCE. The scum vig dead before N3, in spite of how they cannot be guiltied and the scum choose who carries that role; the scum rolestopper dead on D1 in spite of how the scum choose who carries that role; the hider guiltying the scum rolestopper N1 exactly; the scum not realizing the IC is a commute and not suspecting a protective and risking a kill there with the scum commuter enabler alive; etc.

If those happen? Town has a .

In all other scenarios, the town is basically in a, statistically speaking, almost mathematically impossible to win barring freak miracle scenario.