What do you think about hoopla's reasoning that if either me or s_s flips scum-not-redirector, the other is confirmed scum?
Did you make a mistake with this question?
Posted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:51 am
by Infinity 324
You read it right, obviously from my pov neither of us will flip scum-not-redirector barring some total bullshit.
Posted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 6:03 am
by Infinity 324
I may be at the point where I'm supposed to accept losing if dave is town. Our view of the game is so different that we're probably never going to convince each other.
Posted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 6:34 am
by Infinity 324
Since hoopla did some of the d4 votecounts, I'm gonna look at the d1 votecounts, since I think that's the most relevant other day in terms of VCs. D2 and D3 mostly just had one uncontested wagon. I'm gonna color all our names orange since we are the slots that could be scum. The most likely scumteams I'll be looking at are s_s/S&M/n_m, s_s/dave/(S&M or n_m), and S&M/n_m/bird.
The lilith wagon fits pretty well with minimal bussing, with s_s and JV off the wagon. The fact that bird was on this wagon for so long makes a bird/S&M team unlikely. I also didn't really think they're interaction a couple pages back was scum theater.
Not too much interesting here, but the lack of lilith CW means that scum is likely to have been not voting/less active, which makes s_s and JV likely partners.
I didn't get too much out of that but I did it so I'm posting it.
Posted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 6:46 am
by Infinity 324
In post 4228, Infinity 324 wrote:Not too much interesting here, but the lack of lilith CW means that scum is likely to have been not voting/less active, which makes s_s and JV likely partners.
Also S&M could be town
Posted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 7:00 am
by Infinity 324
In post 3035, lilith2013 wrote:Calling bullshit on mena. I jailkept NM last night. I think mena is lying about being blocked to avoid having to give more results.
Also mena’s play D3 makes no sense as a cop receiving an innocent result on skitter. I want crumbs.
This kinda feels like TMI.
@s_s Were you ever able to get a good read on lilith?
Posted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 7:02 am
by Something_Smart
Not from play, but I thought that she was probably town based on the way she played her role.
A gambit's not impossible, but it would definitely surprise me.
Posted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 7:07 am
by Infinity 324
The slot is so scummy that I want just to vote there, but it doesn't look like I'll get the votes.
In post 2612, Menalque wrote:My priority there would always be denying town the cop
The problem with doing this is then you pretty much have to claim cop. And skitter can tell you how well that goes :3
Hmm
Posted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 7:54 am
by Infinity 324
My solve is s_s/n_m/S&M but I want to talk to people more. s_s keeps looking towny when I ISO him but I'm not really seeing S&M/n_m/bird masterminding this game.
What do you think about hoopla's reasoning that if either me or s_s flips scum-not-redirector, the other is confirmed scum?
Did you make a mistake with this question?
In post 4226, Infinity 324 wrote:You read it right, obviously from my pov neither of us will flip scum-not-redirector barring some total bullshit.
I could see you having a problem with S_S scum flip means you'll flip scum, but how does that relate to you not thinking S_S will flip scum? Especially when you have S_S in the solve in a later post?
Posted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 9:30 am
by Infinity 324
I’m arguing against the idea that me and s_s are both scum. If that was the case, it would be a big risk since if one of us flipped not-redirector, the other one would basically be confirmed to be redirector. In that case, we almost certainly wouldn’t have killed peta (and probably one of us would’ve claimed cop).
Did you expect me to remember that one post? Idk, if it's RL stuff it's NAI.
Why wouldn’t you? Creature made it a point of requoting it. Some reason you’re completely dismissing what he said? It’s extemely clear he meant he expects scum!me to be very actively involved or he obviously wouldn’t have posted that not just once but twice.
In post 4211, Smoke and Mirrors wrote:Wrt to any potential role swapping, there’s no actual evidence that scum redirected me. I suppose it’s definitely possible we just jk’d the wrong people but you’d think that perhaps at least one of them might have gotten redirected I know that actually did almost happen to me and RC in You’ve Got Mail. JK!FL protected us N2 but he was roleblocked, so we would have died if we hadn’t had used our commuter.
The theory is that n_m is the redirector and hoopla or bird is the neighborizer, and n_m claimed neighborizer to fuck with town's math.
In post 4211, Smoke and Mirrors wrote:Wrt to any potential role swapping, there’s no actual evidence that scum redirected me.
...why does that have anything to do with it?
The biggest issue in the roleswap is, how did they know N_M was going to be jailed N3. If the roleswap is real, then either you are also scum, or they were going to have N_M claim to have neighborized a buddy and instead they just improvised.
I was also jk in Labrynth and scum redirected my Shoshin jk onto can’t recall player name offhand, so I was obviously the target, I think would be the logical assumption? Scum was clearly threatened by me in that game and I’m pretty damn sure had I been in this slot from the getgo, that likely would have happened here as well.
Scum in that game logically assumed I’d protect an obvtown slot and they were not wrong in that because the player whom my Shoshin jk was redirected to was not obvtown and they had no way of knowing that I was going to protect Shoshin.
Posted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:32 am
by Infinity 324
Well someone in the draft above TGP took the cop slot, since TGP went for cop and didn’t get it. Of the players currently alive, that’s me, s_s, dave, you, and n_m. Dunn confirmed that you got jk, and peta confirmed that dave got watcher. That leaves me, s_s, and n_m. n_m claimed neighborizer, and dunn verified that the role is in the game. However, since we don’t know that n_m is the neighborizer, it’s possible that n_m is instead the redirector and one of n_m’s scumbuddies (probably bird) is the actual neighborizer.
Posted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:39 am
by Smoke and Mirrors
Spoiler:
In post 4217, Infinity 324 wrote:I will hate myself if we lose to S&M/n_m/bird because it fits with my reads so well but it seems so unlikely. Who came up with the no kill idea? The roleswapping idea? How did n_m know they'd get redirector so late?
Though S&M are ignoring that this is a pretty unique scum game where they're very likely to win if they don't do anything in Elo and me or s_s votes the other.
Feeling like Nancy and Shiro would try harder if they were scum
How did you possibly forget about this, Infinity?
And that quote was coming from a player who is actually familiar with my meta. He knows from playing with scum!me that I tend to be a tryhard as scum, where as as town, my activity levels are inconsistent depending on the game. Check out Merchant’s Dance, Coalition where I hyperposted. In MD, I actually reached 1100 posts.
As for Pooky, check our both Dung games where I was the one to carry for our hydra. Thanks for posting this though, even if it wasn’t what you intended.
Did you expect me to remember that one post? Idk, if it's RL stuff it's NAI.
Why wouldn’t you? Creature made it a point of requoting it. Some reason you’re completely dismissing what he said? It’s extemely clear he meant he expects scum!me to be very actively involved or he obviously wouldn’t have posted that not just once but twice.
In post 4217, Infinity 324 wrote:I will hate myself if we lose to S&M/n_m/bird because it fits with my reads so well but it seems so unlikely. Who came up with the no kill idea? The roleswapping idea? How did n_m know they'd get redirector so late?
Though S&M are ignoring that
this is a pretty unique scum game where they're very likely to win if they don't do anything in Elo and me or s_s votes the other.
What part these posts are you misinterpreting?
What exactly do you think I’m ignoring? Am I also scum now for not mind reading you?
I really don't like this reasoning for possibly suspecting me given that there was a decent amount of support for my elim yesterday (bird, s_s) and I'm in the redirector pool.
Why not? I thought it made the most sense for me to protect the slot that didn’t claim to have a watcher/neighbourize that I was most strongly tr at the time. So why wouldn’t Peta NK have made me less sure on that? I would think that if it hadn’t made me less sure, that should be what should logically make you suspicious.
