Sorry for the absence, but my usual posting times (midnight to three) have been absorbed by sleeping for the new job.
Anyway skimming, jason's 416 looks legit.
Vote: Baby Spice.
Her opening post is just terrible. I can dissect it later, probably Saturday.
Posted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 9:01 pm
by RedCoyote
It's probably easier to look off the wagon than it is to look on it. Immediately I feel better about jason now, rightly or wrongly. Dry-fit may have been inevitable, but it still needed a hammer. I feel worse about Percy. On the wagon, I feel pretty good about Oso (fitz) and Kscope. Locke is unchanged (this is good). The opportunists on Dry-fit's wagon (be them town opportunists looking to help themselves or scum opportunists looking to score points on an inevitable lynch) are Fur, IAI (even he admits to this), and, I'd argue, Sotty. Sotty and IAI are particularly interesting, because they both practiced a in a bit of a slap fight throughout the game.
I wonder if Dry-fit was thrown under the bus as a cruel, calculating strategy, because it sure as heck didn't seem like the scum were falling over themselves to rescue their downtrodden comrade. They'd have wanted to stamp this fire out before it got started. If I was scum and I was trying to stop a Dry-fit wagon from gaining momentum, what would I do? Let's go back to the beginning...
Dry-fit 159 wrote:IAI is one of the players I suspect the most
[...]
Furculow's posts up to this point have been terrible. He asks people to tell him which wagon is best, jumps on one of the biggest wagons, and then suggests we name all the scum and set up chain lynches.
However, that does look like a slip by jason.
Unvote. Vote: jasonT1981
Dry-fit
calls out Fur, IAI, and jason here. Of these, I suspect that there might be a partner here. My pick is Fur. This is a good post to remember.
votes Dry-fit in response. Doesn't feel genuine whatsoever.
Locke
and
Kscope
both make their anti-Dry-fit opinions known on this page, both of them seem genuine. Locke's vote in particular is good given that it wouldn't change.
Sotty
comes up not too long after, and interestingly she mentions that Dry-fit is her second biggest suspect and that Locke and Kscope are her best town reads. This is almost too coincidental. She was alone on the Nikanor wagon. She was backing up the Dry-fit wagon, and she thought the two most recent proponents of the wagon were her biggest town reads. I think I took issue with this at the time, but I never followed up on it. Locke and Kscope had given very few posts and opinions up to this point. Kscope in particular had been tight-lipped. For Sotty to claim them both as her biggest town reads is suspect just due to the fact that they weren't very active (nevermind that they both happened to be right in their Dry-fit suspicions).
Next couple of posts by
Fur
are pushing Dry-fit too hard to feel genuine. Given that anyone who has suspected Fur has had to face his wrath, he doesn't really get points for going after Dry-fit. It feels too much like a player who has trouble focusing when others bring heat on him.
Also need to mention that
IAI
,
Mina
, and
Elmo
are all ignoring the early stretches of the Dry-fit wagon. I'm not going to speak as to whether they are actively ignoring them or not, just that they miss out on any early town points for acknowledging this wagon.
The next post I want to bring up is
Percy's
195. The most important thing here is what's not said. Again we have Dry-fit being largely ignored... but here's the kicker. Dry-fit is on Percy's short scumlist. Who is on his townlist? Oso, Kscope, and Locke. Percy hadn't mentioned Dry-fit at all since his wagon started, and we know that both Kscope and Locke are still very inactive at this point. This is the same issue I had with Sotty. This is Percy trying to get points for supporting the Dry-fit wagon without really making it known. Could one or both of them be trying to keep the Dry-fit wagon from succceeding by throwing a bunch of other arguments on the tracks?
A lot of nothing for a while after this.
Oso
makes another post against Dry-fit, further cementing the fact that he's town in my eyes. Percy and Sotty both make new posts, neither of them really address Dry-fit significantly despite him being their second biggest suspect. Dry-fit makes a post asking Elmo about me. Null.
Fur
and
Benmage
both jump on Dry-fit. Neither of them look particularly good or bad. I have to just say null again. Fur moves his vote far too often to be acknowledged as though he has an honest opinion on something. Benmage looks better in comparison. The one thing I will give Benmage though (I think this is why Benmage and Kscope have both just posted recently that Benmage is very town with Dry-fit's flip) is that, while Oso may have started the Dry-fit wagon, Benmage was the one to bring it to the forefront.
Elmo
just echoes Kscope in 279 and 286.
For some reason
Sotty
acts surprised that the Nikanor wagon wasn't going anywhere despite her not pushing it and Nikanor not looking very scummy.
IAI
is seemingly almost too absentminded to be scum. I don't mean this in a bad way; I'm sure he's a very bright person. I just mean within the context of this game he's stumbling far too much to seem as though he's concocting his posts. Even though he defends me and Dry-fit a lot, he's bring Dry-fit to the forefront of the game rather than adding more noise (Percy, Sotty).
And then... Bingo.
Percy 319 wrote:I haven't had a chance to read the RC or Dry-fit wagons close enough to commit.
Percy 195 wrote:
Scumreads
RedCoyote
Sotty7
Dry-fit
imkingdavid
Can you say smoking gun?
I knew that scumlist felt very strange to me. I even mentioned it before Dry-fit was lynched. Juxtaposing these two posts, one can clearly see that
Percy
is caught lying at worst or fabricating posts at best. His list was completely out of the blue to begin with, but there was no need for him to call both me and Dry-fit as persons of interest on his scumlist if he "hadn't had a chance to read our wagons close enough". Percy will likely argue that his list was based on gut reads or that he was more focused on Benmage, but the truth is that Percy talked with me a great deal. He said that he though Locke and Kscope were both very town looking (and the only things these two players had effectively done was criticize me and Dry-fit).
The rest is just the tail end of a for sure wagon at this point. Fur and me are beating our chests.
Baby Spice
and
Lrdwhyt
both replace in okay. You can't really read them because they're focusing on the beginning of the game. I don't propose to read either of them very closely in the context of the Dry-fit lynch. I like Lrdwhyt slightly more than Baby Spice mostly because I liked kingdavid more than mongoose.
Mina, Elmo, and Nikanor are wild cards. I didn't really address them in the above overview because I cannot really draw any conclusions. Of this group I'd only say I have a gut town read on Nikanor. Mina and Elmo could honestly go either way. Mina has made decent posts, but she has been far too absent from the major events in this game (namely the Dry-fit lynch). Elmo feels like Kscope (which is good) except that he's consistently arriving late to the party. He doesn't really have a significant voice of his own.
tl;dr = Percy is horrible. Sotty looks bad. Fur looks bad. Kscope, fitz, Locke, jason, IAI, and Benmage all look better. Everyone else is pretty much unchanged with this lynch.
In regards to myself, I'm a very realistic person, and I'm not in a good position. I put myself in this position by being too headstrong on jason and not open enough to what was going on around me. I'm an acceptable lynch, frankly, and I can't really blame the town if I'm chosen here. I created this post to make it up to y'all for my lack of objectivity in the middle of this game. All that I ask is, if you do lynch me, to go back and comb through this post. These are honest assessments from an honest, dead townie. If you don't lynch me, then I strongly recommend that we go after Percy, Sotty, or Fur, in that order.
Vote: Percy
Posted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 11:41 pm
by Baby Spice
Sorry for the absence, ran out of time in my life.
Sotty7 wrote: Post 343"]That's a hell of a wagon for RVS, and everyone following such a stupid reason to vote. (Ok, a reasonable RVS reason but not to 5 votes) (6 if you count Furcolow) Definately something hinky here and I dare say, There's scum on that there wagon
What would have been a reasonable number for this wagon in RVS then?
[/quote]
Not over halfway to a quicklynch
Think I said hinky not scummy btw.
Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 12:24 am
by Baby Spice
jasonT1981 wrote:Alright, now that DF has flipped goon, I will expain what made me change my vote to hammer and also lessen suspicion on Fur, don't get me wrong I still think Fur has been scummy and is worth looking at however that last post by DF looked like a diliberate attmpt of distancing and/or buddying to make Fur look bad.
Does that mean that you weren't going to explain it if he flipped town?
Back to the Daycop thing.
The reaction to his joke is what is scummy. Reguardless of it being true or not, some people jumped like he was right.
Also Elmo is so obv town that he should be in the dictionary for it.
Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 1:24 am
by Benmage
Your fearless leader says RedCoyote is not todays lynch.
Percy is.
People of interest include Mina and Nikanor. Locke's contribution thus far has been so abysmal that he can't be written off so easily, yet.
Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 1:48 am
by jasonT1981
vote: Baby Spice
No, I would have explained it regardless.. I just didn't want to explain it before the flip due to the WIFOM involved in my thinking..
Any BS is still pushing my apparent scumslip.... makes sense scum would still try their hardest to make me look bad, given how DF was so nail and hammer (figure of speach) about it... and now BS is still pushing his old 'case' I feel my vote is in the right place.
Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 2:49 am
by Baby Spice
You hammered. It's not like you haad to convince anyone else to follow your vote, or had to worry about a counter wagon or anything.
I can see no town reason for withholding your supposed reasons, nor can I see any town reasons for you saying "Now that he has flipped scum ..." and giving them.
Pure and simple you bussed and hammered a scum mate with a poor reason and tried to hide it.
lol Benmage. Leader says obv town is not todays lynch. Would that be coaching since you had no night chat to use? (Since we've had no night)
Vote Benmage
Benmage and Jason are the lynch. Not Percy, not obv town. Just those two scum.
Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 3:01 am
by Sotty7
I have a headache so brief posting will be brief. I'll be back later with actual substance... I hope.
Anyway I kinda want to revote Nikanor again, he is still scummy. However Percy and Red both look awful in light of the Dry fit flip. I'm going to have to look back and see where I stand on all that.
But yeah I'll be back later with actual content.
Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 3:04 am
by jasonT1981
Baby Spice wrote:You hammered. It's not like you haad to convince anyone else to follow your vote, or had to worry about a counter wagon or anything.
I can see no town reason for withholding your supposed reasons, nor can I see any town reasons for you saying "Now that he has flipped scum ..." and giving them.
Pure and simple you bussed and hammered a scum mate with a poor reason and tried to hide it.
lol Benmage. Leader says obv town is not todays lynch. Would that be coaching since you had no night chat to use? (Since we've had no night)
Vote Benmage
Benmage and Jason are the lynch. Not Percy, not obv town. Just those two scum.
Dryfit tried to twist my words and make me look like scum... he flipped scum, now your following he same lines... and his case adding more twisting to my words trying to make it out I am scummy.
Makes sense scum would still try and push a bogus case on me.
Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 4:35 am
by KaleiÐoscøpe
We lynch either Red or Percy today.
Any other lynch proposals are scummy and ignorant
Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 7:15 am
by jasonT1981
Guys, Im heading out tonight... wont be back until tommorow sometime.
Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 9:34 am
by Benmage
jasonT1981 wrote:Guys, Im heading out tonight... wont be back until tommorow sometime.
Ditto.
Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 2:07 pm
by I Am Innocent
Reread the thread:
My Top 2
Percy & Nikanor
Runner Ups: Red, Baby Spice, and to a lesser degree, Furcalow, Mina, and Lrdwhyt
Everyone else, town read
@ Baby Spice, I noticed in Post 342 there was a vote count from the mod (9 days prior to the deadline).
In post 343, you list 5 possible scum, one of which was Dry Fit
In post 345, you vote for BenMage, who as of Post 342, was at L-8. Dry Fit was at L-2. The next closest wagon was L-6.
Why didn't you vote for Dry Fit at that point?
vote: Percy
Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 2:42 pm
by Percy
Well that was unexpected. I'd say that Havingfitz and Locke Lamora are almost certainly town, due to their early wagonning of Dry-fit.
My initial read of Dry-fit was scummy, but I was seeing scum in the way the wagon was developing, and I didn't think there was enough for a lynch. I was wrong.
Furcolow 399 wrote:first off, i respect percy a lot, so having him insult me here is something i want to back away from.
AtE, I'm not insulting you. You say "I'm bad at this game that is why it looks scummy" when someone points out something anti-town you've done, and I think it's a terrible defence. I don't know how you'd play differently as scum.
You're insisting that this play of yours is your town meta. Give me three games where you can demonstrate this, and three games where you're scum and don't demonstrate this tell. If you can't, then I have no reason to believe you.
Hannity 418 wrote:
vote Percy
so now that I'm confirmed town Lets nail another scum.
It's a fact that you were third on the Dry-fit wagon, and you gave it a big push.
...
It does buy you a lot of town points, doesn't it. Fuck, I was so sure I was on to something with you.
Hmmmm. I'm going to leave off my case for the moment. But I'm not considering you confirmed, and I'll still be keeping a close eye on you.
RedCoyote 426 wrote:Can you say smoking gun?
I knew that scumlist felt very strange to me. I even mentioned it before Dry-fit was lynched. Juxtaposing these two posts, one can clearly see that Percy is caught lying at worst or fabricating posts at best. His list was completely out of the blue to begin with, but there was no need for him to call both me and Dry-fit as persons of interest on his scumlist if he "hadn't had a chance to read our wagons close enough". Percy will likely argue that his list was based on gut reads or that he was more focused on Benmage, but the truth is that Percy talked with me a great deal. He said that he though Locke and Kscope were both very town looking (and the only things these two players had effectively done was criticize me and Dry-fit).
Smoking gun? Please. Sure it was inconsistent of me to go from "I have a scumread of Dry-fit" to "I haven't digested the case and I'm going to push another wagon", but it felt right at the time, and I didn't have time to explain myself in full. I thought the initial case against Dry-fit was worth pushing, but I thought that it didn't develop enough for me to want to lynch him. An early scumtell worth exploring does not a lynching case make, effectively. I said I hadn't read the wagon close enough to commit, and I meant it.
You also pushed the Furc pretty hard at the end of the day, too. This was your Furcolow vote-post:
RedCoyote wrote:The jason wagon has become too controversial to continue. If you aren't convinced by now, you probably won't be.
This doesn't change the fact that an alternative to the Dry-fit wagon, regardless how you feel about Dry-fit, is beneficial to the long-term game
. Furcolow is a great alternative. He's arguably the most opportunistic player here (arguably because he's competing with Benmage for the title), is throwing up senseless, unexplained scum lists and positions that contradict one another, and is, in general, manufacturing activity to look as though he's paying closer attention than he actually is (by this I mean he's missing obvious things and shrugging them off, pretending like it's no big deal).
The bolded is possibly bussing. You're pushing an alternative wagon but still saying you think the Dry-fit wagon is "good to have around", which means your read was similar to mine - or at least, that's how I'd interpret it if I was assuming you're telling the truth. Dry-fit is scummy, but was not lynchworthy at that point, right?
RedCoyote wrote:In regards to myself, I'm a very realistic person, and I'm not in a good position. I put myself in this position by being too headstrong on jason and not open enough to what was going on around me. I'm an acceptable lynch, frankly, and I can't really blame the town if I'm chosen here. I created this post to make it up to y'all for my lack of objectivity in the middle of this game. All that I ask is, if you do lynch me, to go back and comb through this post. These are honest assessments from an honest, dead townie. If you don't lynch me, then I strongly recommend that we go after Percy, Sotty, or Fur, in that order.
Vote: Percy
Goddamn, you sound town here. I have read a lot of about-to-be-lynched kind of posts, and this one sounds genuine, and in every game where I've had this feeling, I've been right.
Fuck. Fuck!
With my Hannity read blown, and my RedCoyote read blown, I'm reeling and need to re-read.
KScope wrote:We lynch either Red or Percy today.
Any other lynch proposals are scummy and ignorant
This worries me. This is what scum who bus their partners say.
Fuuuuck.
Based on nothing more than the slip that has been pointed out before, I'm going to
Vote: Baby Spice
. For those that missed it, here it is again:
jason wrote:
Baby Spice wrote:Hmm, Jason's #98. Blatant buddy on Sotty and
a vote on town
that includes buddying as a reason.
Note the bold! Vote on TOWN.... now how is BS so sure eh?
I really like this slip for BS-scum. I'm going to re-read and figure out whether my vote should stay, but that's where I want to go right now.
I don't think RedCoyote should be the lynch, despite how it might look good superficially. I've got to unpack and I'll be back on later tonight.
Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 3:10 pm
by Benmage
Tomorrow I'ma break it down why Percy is our #1 choice for todays second lynch, while also naming probably 3rd scum and clearing some others as town.
Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 3:14 pm
by jasonT1981
I actually wouldn't mind seeing the case on Percy. I'm still undecided about it. BS right now is my no1 pick as scum.
Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 5:35 pm
by Percy
I like my vote. I can't understand how Hannity can be scum right now, because his push against Dry-fit looks town. So the case she's putting forward makes no sense. mongoose's attitude towards Dry-fit isn't that great either. Plus there's the slip, and I think that pushes Baby Spice into the "want to lynch" category more than anyone else.
I look forward to Hannity's case. I sure hope it's more than:
1) He was mean to me WAAAAAAAH! and
2) He was inconsistent wrt Dry-fit!
...because whilst I am backing down from my case against Hannity, it's not because I don't think my previous point doesn't have merit. I think he lied to make himself look better, and his ego is too big to let this go. But he can cry all he likes and still be town, and the Dry-fit case makes him look town. And as for my inconsistency, I've already explained why I feel the way I do and why I did the things I did wrt Dry-fit.
I think jason, havingfitz, Locke Lamora and Benmage are probtown, along with RC. I think IAI is town for reasons I said earlier. I had a townread of KScope, but no more, he's solidly null. I still think Furcolow is scummy, but I think Baby Spice is worse.
Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 9:31 pm
by havingfitz
Checking in.
I'm about halfway through my read. I'm out most of today but I will try to finish up and post my thoughts/vote.
Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 11:10 pm
by Locke Lamora
I'm a bit behind on this game, but based on a quick glance through Percy's ISO, it's quite clear he's a good candidate for Dry-fit's buddy. The first time he mentions him, he includes him in his scumreads with no other explanation, which I find to be a good tell. He then moves from saying he's scummy but he prefers his own wagons more to casting doubt on the wagon because of the people on it. There are several attempts to derail the wagon without ever really making an extensive effort to analyse it or Dry-fit's play.
Vote: Percy
Could also go for a Nikanor lynch. Jason is clearly town.
Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 12:24 am
by RedCoyote
Percy 438 wrote:Goddamn, you sound town here.
I wish I could say the same of you.
I know we were kind of in the same boat in regards to Dry-fit, but I just see you as significantly more contrived in your positions. I never said that Locke and Kscope were huge town reads for me. I admit I was guilty of playing pattycake with the Dry-fit wagon by supporting it without really analyzing it, but I never claimed that Locke and Kscope were on my town list. I felt pretty good about Locke, but Kscope had always been rather null. Further, I never went out on a limb to say that I needed to re-read Dry-fit when I already put him on a short scum list. That's just so fake sounding. Despite my lack of getting involved with the Dry-fit wagon, I always kept tabs on it and him. I just always thought it was an inferior wagon to jason and, later, Fur. You, on the other hand, I don't buy the idea that you were so wrapped up with Benmage or Sotty that you didn't know what was going on with me or Dry-fit, especially not when you had already called both of us out and had had multiple posts arguing with me.
Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 1:35 am
by jasonT1981
BabySpice.. you are hellbent on pushing a scumslip on me... how do you respond to accusations of a scumslip from yourself?
Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 1:42 am
by jasonT1981
Sotty, do you remember Marvel/DC2 were EVERY member of scum kept pushing for my lynch and thats how we partly caught them? I believe it was the one were I was survivor..... this reminds me exactly like that, especially in the way BS is parrotting Dryfit in the same way scum parrotted each other over me in that game.
Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 3:02 am
by Sotty7
I remember Jason, but I'd like to think Mafiascum has a higher level of play than on our old board. Otherwise we could just lynch Nikanor then Babyspice and it would be game over.
What's your opinion on Percy and Red at this point?
I'm going to do some reading and get a vote out there by the end of the weekend.
Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 3:59 am
by jasonT1981
Right now I am more sure of Nik and Babyspice than I am on Percy and I await Bens case on Percy. RC... hmmm getting mixed signals on him really. It is interesting to note that RC thought the Dryfit wagon was inferiour to my own and the one on fur despite the evedience to the contary... that is quite telling.
However, the percy one is the one I probably am least sold on so far. I might look through Percys ISO in a bit and see, Locke seems to think an ISO on Percy is quite telling as DFs partner. Will hopefully do that before I go out later
Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 5:34 am
by jasonT1981
hmmmm ok ISO on Percy, he goes right to his ISO7 without any interaction with DF and then declares him scum.. constant attacks on Sotty, who I believe to be town right now. Spends quite a few posts calling RC scummy but does not lay down a vote until his post 7 also....
Names NIK & Fur as unsure... finally in ISO8 he mentions DF and not liking his attack on me.
Look at his ISO 9 after quite a few posts defending me....sayin he would be defencive in my position too (ISO7)
Percy wrote:This. Jason's stumbling is now providing some justification, but I fail to understand how jason's reaction is scummy, rather than just a reaction from someone who is busy and didn't read the setup. Just like Benmage who didn't know about the instaflips.
Percy wrote:Jason thought (or so he says) there was a day cop claiming a guilty on him. I'd be defensive and react strongly too...
Percy wrote:Townreads
mongoose
jasonT1981
Percy wrote:
@Furcolow: Of course all four can't be scum, but they're the ones hitting my radar. As for Dry-Fit, I don't like his votes on Oso or on Jason, but I like my wagons better.
then when a wagon forms on me...
HE SUDDLENLY FLIPS HIS POSITION
Percy wrote:
I had a gut read of him, and I thought the only legitimate points made against him were regarding his reaction to your claim gambit. For example, when he said:
jasonT1981 wrote:flat out lie. He is not a day cop.. If he was, he would know
my proper role
and not that I am mafia.
That sounds like scum who haven't figured out their fakeclaim. Which is why I said the reaction was providing justification.
WOW.... look... from town read to scum who hasnt figured out fakeclaims
then suddenly changes again
Percy wrote:Jason says he misread the game. It's quite a bad misreading. Scummy? I don't think so. But he hasn't now, several posts into clearing up this misunderstanding, said he "forgot".
Percy wrote:Oh, and I'll be reading and possibly revoting for a lynching wagon either tomorrow or Thursday.
Love this... I will re-read and vote on the lynch wagon
love this too
Percy wrote:Why should Dry-fit be lynched? Last I read, your vote was for self preservation only.
and it gets better
Percy wrote:Well that was unexpected. I'd say that Havingfitz and Locke Lamora are almost certainly town, due to their early wagonning of Dry-fit.
My initial read of Dry-fit was scummy, but I was seeing scum in the way the wagon was developing, and I didn't think there was enough for a lynch. I was wrong.
Yea, looking in ISO he is OBV scum.
unvote
vote: Percy
I didnt actually see anything until I did an ISO... Dmn.
