Mafiascum.net

I have to admit, I like FT's 420, and Nacho's points on jason are actually quite strong.

Sotty, quick questions for you:

-Exactly what did I say between that post and CES saying that Sotty-Josh made sense that would sway him? When did I call a link between you two unlikely?
-Who do you think CES's partner is if he's scum?
-Which points in particular of Syryana's post did you agree with? Everything he said about CES? Specifics?
-I'm...um...really missing how that was testing the waters. At all. The answer I was hoping to see if you're town is, "Boy, that actually looks pretty town, the way he's approaching the game and ruled everyone out as suspects." And virtually everything he's said about you has actually been trying to get you to say something that would this theory.

I told you to unvote just because jason has claimed the sole reason he hasn't voted CES was because it would put him at L-1. I unvoted partly to see what he'd do (apparently, the answer is nothing) and partly because of ~REASONS~.

CES, if you're around, quick questions for you, too (and now I can actually make you answer them because you don't have the town cred to be flippant anymore! MWAHAHAHAHA!):

-Why don't you think Sotty-scum/jason-town is possible?
-On D1, you said Nacho was the common link between {Nacho, jason} and {Nacho, Josh}. I asked why it couldn't be jason-Josh, and you answered for why Nacho and Josh were partners. But you never explained both 1) why a Nacho/jason link was likely and 2) why a Josh/jason link was unlikely. Also, why was Josh/Sotty unlikely for "obvious reasons"?
-Please walk me through what your stance on jason was throughout Day 1. Because it seemed all over the place, and it was hard to tell when you were being flippant and when you were joking.
-Details on what you like about Syryana's post?

*sigh*

EBWOP (this is a trend):

-Exactly what did I say between that post and CES saying that

Sotty-Josh

Sotty-jason made sense that would sway him? When did I ever call a link between you two

unlikely

?

-Please walk me through what your stance on jason was throughout Day 1. Because it seemed all over the place, and it was hard to tell

when you were being flippant and

when you were joking and when you were seriously suspecting him.

↑ Dazed and Confused wrote:Syryana, welcome to the game. If you were scum, would you have killed CES last night? What if your buddy had pointed out the reasons that made him a bad nightkill--who would your next choice have been? (Also, not to turn this into MD, but why does being hard to read make you

more

likely to be nightkilled?)

I've no idea. Depends on who my scumpartner is, how that person interacted with others, how they interacted with me, etc. As for being hard to read making you more likely to be NK'd, it doesn't. However, in the case of CES, being hard-to-read laser-eyed in his analysis of others makes him a good NK choice. Because even if he gets lynched the next day, he's still had the entire day to watch, analyze, and presumably post his thoughts in twilight or even at L-1. It is therefore in the favor of scum to NK him, preventing him from reading anyone. There are two possibilities for why he's still alive: he's so far off on who the scumteam is that he's not a threat and he's liable to get lynched for that cophammer, OR he's scum himself. I'm still leaning towards scum. Here's why.

↑ Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:Sotty's town read of Jason muddies the waters quite a bit w.r.t what the scum team is (Syryana's last post isn't bad either), but it only makes this vote easier:

Vote: Nacho

↑ Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:Sotty-Jason makes a surprising amount of sense. You're going to have to elaborate on that town read, Sotty.

So he suspects a Sotty-Jason scumteam but votes Nacho? I don't see this making any kind of sense. He tries to say later that he wants to explore the Sotty-Jason idea but doesn't necessarily want to vote for them. I think he's trying to be inconspicuous. He quickhammers yesterday, thinking that nobody will suspect a quickhammer from CESscum; he's too wily for such an obvious tactic. It backfires; Whiskers was the cop. Today, therefore, he attempts to appease me by saying my post attacking him "isn't bad" and slinks off to the person he targeted all day yesterday: Nacho. He makes some token posts about Sotty-Jason, then sits back and waits for everyone to get distracted by something else. Like Jason, for example.

↑ FourTrouble wrote:The main point boils down to the asking, why isn’t CES dead? Which completely ignores the fact that CES hammered Whiskers.

I addressed this. CES hammered Whiskers because he could, and because he didn't want any last minute claims to get in the way of his day 1 lynch. Besides, nobody expects him to hammer as scum. It's way too obvious for someone like CES. Hell, he quickhammered the cop, and got 2 and a half votes of heat. If I had quickhammered the cop in any of the games I'd played in the past, I'd have been dead within 5 minutes of the opening bell for Day 2. That CES lives speaks to just how few folks think CESscum would hammer like that, which he is taking outrageous advantage of at the moment.

↑ FourTrouble wrote:The question, why isn’t CES dead, is as stupid a fucking question as it gets, and anyone pushing that as a reason to lynch him is pushing a non-starter of an argument. Flip the tables, assume CES is town for a second, and now ask the more reasonable question: if CES is town, would scum kill him after his quick hammer? The answer here seems pretty obvious. Which tells me Syryana has not, for even a second, considered the possibility that CES is town. And I dunno about you but that seems like the kind of thing scum do, not town. At least I know I always try to look at things from both angles.

I did consider the possibility that CES is town for at five seconds. I merely find it increasingly unlikely. Besides, I already said earlier in this post why leaving CES alive to be lynched is more trouble than it's worth, given he has an entire second day to move his gaze from Nacho. Not to mention the fact that there's no guarantee he'd be lynched anyways.

↑ FourTrouble wrote:The points about me are also terrible. I mean, even if CES is scum, I still don't see how we're connected or how it makes any sense to say we're partners. And most of Syryana's points about me are just really dumb. Like calling me scummy because I questioned my initial impression of Sixty. Or saying I called you town to sheep you when in context you were technically following my lead on Rach. 383 is just not well thought out at all. It comes across as a superficial attack on both CES and myself.

Oh look, more defense of CES. You wonder why I keep calling you and he partners? At least my post logic, good or otherwise. Yours just seems to be an attack on my character.

In short, I see no reason to move my vote at this time. The magic man has retreated and is laying low. Simmer down, paranoia.

In other news:

Dazed and Confused wrote:I have to admit, I like FT's 420

What did you like?

↑ Sotty7 wrote:This is p.scummy though. The wind starts to turn and you want to blend in. Why does it make sense?

I don't think either of those assessments are accurate. I've only seen Nacho push that way.

↑ Nachomamma8 wrote:Who do you think is an easier target for jasonscum?

Do you mean who is an easy target for him to attack? Like I said, I don't think anyone is easy in this game.

↑ Dazed and Confused wrote:Sotty, quick questions for you:

These are not quick questions. I feel like you are getting bogged down in unimportant stuff, but maybe it's me.

*It was the appearance of more than one person talking about it. He came in saying it would make sense Nacho's vote on Jason. SUDDENLY it makes sense. Explain how that is natural.
*Don't really know right now. I'll figure that out when I need to. I try not to hunt in pairs because I get locked in. Plus it's dumb.
*I liked him breaking down his thought process a lot. I think the detail was good, for Four to just crap on all that was pretty poor. The WIFOM nightkill stuff is what it is, but CES did little on day one that much is true.
*No idea what you are getting at here. I need a Mina translator.

↑ Dazed and Confused wrote:I unvoted partly to see what he'd do (apparently, the answer is nothing) and partly because of ~REASONS~.

What did you expect him to do, it's CES? REASONS just makes me shake my head. I feel like you are just asking a billion questions and not actually drawing any conculsions from it. I don't even know why I just answered because you STILL didn't answer my question of why you spent the first few posts of this day getting me NOT to vote CES when your vote was on him. I'd love your scum reads right now or any kind of actual stance.

↑ Syryana wrote:So he suspects a Sotty-Jason scumteam but votes Nacho? I don't see this making any kind of sense. He tries to say later that he wants to explore the Sotty-Jason idea but doesn't necessarily want to vote for them. I think he's trying to be inconspicuous. He quickhammers yesterday, thinking that nobody will suspect a quickhammer from CESscum; he's too wily for such an obvious tactic. It backfires; Whiskers was the cop. Today, therefore, he attempts to appease me by saying my post attacking him "isn't bad" and slinks off to the person he targeted all day yesterday: Nacho. He makes some token posts about Sotty-Jason, then sits back and waits for everyone to get distracted by something else. Like Jason, for example.

this.

↑ Syryana wrote:I've no idea. Depends on who my scumpartner is, how that person interacted with others, how they interacted with me, etc. As for being hard to read making you more likely to be NK'd, it doesn't. However, in the case of CES, being hard-to-read and laser-eyed in his analysis of others makes him a good NK choice. Because even if he gets lynched the next day, he's still had the entire day to watch, analyze, and presumably post his thoughts in twilight or even at L-1. It is therefore in the favor of scum to NK him, preventing him from reading anyone. There are two possibilities for why he's still alive: he's so far off on who the scumteam is that he's not a threat and he's liable to get lynched for that cophammer, OR he's scum himself. I'm still leaning towards scum. Here's why.

Scum need just 2 more mislynches.

↑ Syryana wrote:So he suspects a Sotty-Jason scumteam but votes Nacho?

I think Sotty-Jason is plausible; I think Nachoscum is plausible. Now why are you parroting Jason's silly talking point?

↑ Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:

↑ Sotty7 wrote:This is p.scummy though. The wind starts to turn and you want to blend in. Why does it make sense?

I don't think either of those assessments are accurate. I've only seen Nacho push that way.

So you didn't read Mina's posts?

↑ Sotty7 wrote:

↑ Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:

↑ Sotty7 wrote:This is p.scummy though. The wind starts to turn and you want to blend in. Why does it make sense?

I don't think either of those assessments are accurate. I've only seen Nacho push that way.

So you didn't read Mina's posts?

She just asked you an obvious question (about Jason). Then you declined to answer. Then she said she wasn't drunk. I certainly didn't experience that as pushing (mostly because it isn't.)

↑ Sotty7 wrote:*It was the appearance of more than one person talking about it. He came in saying it would make sense after Nacho's vote on Jason. SUDDENLY it makes sense. Explain how that is natural.

Nacho suggests a theory. I know my picture is incomplete so I'm somewhat receptive, I consider it and I see the suggestion has merit. What is unnatural here?

↑ Syryana wrote:I addressed this. CES hammered Whiskers because he could, and because he didn't want any last minute claims to get in the way of his day 1 lynch. Besides, nobody expects him to hammer as scum. It's way too obvious for someone like CES. Hell, he quickhammered the cop, and got 2 and a half votes of heat. If I had quickhammered the cop in any of the games I'd played in the past, I'd have been dead within 5 minutes of the opening bell for Day 2. That CES lives speaks to just how few folks think CESscum would hammer like that, which he is taking outrageous advantage of at the moment.

You realize I also wouldn't in any way need to quickhammer as scum, right? No one would expect me as scum to hammer because gambits are dumb and unnecessary if you can just amble towards the finish line playing it perfectly safe.

↑ Dazed and Confused wrote:-Why don't you think Sotty-scum/jason-town is possible?
-On D1, you said Nacho was the common link between {Nacho, jason} and {Nacho, Josh}. I asked why it couldn't be jason-Josh, and you answered for why Nacho and Josh were partners. But you never explained both 1) why a Nacho/jason link was likely and 2) why a Josh/jason link was unlikely. Also, why was Josh/Sotty unlikely for "obvious reasons"?
-Please walk me through what your stance on jason was throughout Day 1. Because it seemed all over the place, and it was hard to tell when you were being flippant and when you were joking.
-Details on what you like about Syryana's post?

- Do you really see Sotty7scum turning her back on an easy mislynch in a close game like this? Get me mislynched, mislynch Jason - it's an easy win.
- I never explained those things because those weren't things I believed? Josh, Jason and Nacho all seemed suspicious to me but Josh's suspicion came for a not insignificant part from that "Nacho and Sotty are town but I can't point to any posts apparently that suggested the read" so {Nacho, jason} and {Nacho, josh} were the teams that felt right to me. Josh/Sotty was unlikely because 1) Sotty seemed town (*-*) and 2) he also did mention new stuff about Sotty when pressed; that didn't look like a partner interaction at all.\
- Off the top of my head: Grudging acceptance of Empire's accusation while holding out for an irrational explanation -> suck it, Empire -> post, you fucker -> he kind of is suspiciously inactive + coasting on the L-1 Josh thing.
-It's all pretty intricate and the dude's a newbie. It definitely doesn't feel informed.

Sotty7 wrote:What did you expect him to do, it's CES? REASONS just makes me shake my head. I feel like you are just asking a billion questions and not actually drawing any conculsions from it. I don't even know why I just answered because you STILL didn't answer my question of why you spent the first few posts of this day getting me NOT to vote CES when your vote was on him. I'd love your scum reads right now or any kind of actual stance.

I meant I wanted to see what would do. He said the only reason he wasn't voting CES was that it'd put him at L-1, so I took away his reason for withholding his vote.

I'm bombarding people with questions because every time I'm on the verge of coming to a conclusion, something else sends me spiraling into paranoia, and I need to tie up loose end.

As for "REASONS", now's as good a time as any to come clean. Part of why I've been so evasive was that I felt as though people were circling the CES bandwagon ever since I made that "We're policy-lynching you, CES!" comment, as though they were testing the waters. So I thought it'd be most informative if I kept quiet on what I thought.

Here's my stance, which you probably didn't see coming. As sad as this is for us to admit, CES...might...actually be our strongest living town read right now. *sobs* (This is hard for me to write. Every time I work up the courage to type the words, "CES is town," it's like a shockwave of paranoia overcomes my body and I hear an evil cackle thousands of miles away.)

Empire and I both noticed Whiskers' vanilla claim on D1 (as well as Whiskers' post-hammer softclaim, but anyway). To be honest, we probably wouldn't have believed a cop claim from Whiskers barring a sudden flash of towniness, although the strategic move might have been to leave him alive one more day. This meant the worst of both worlds: the motivations behind CES's hammer were irritatingly null, even though it had a disastrous antitown effect.

We were paranoid as hell, particularly since neither of us trusts our ability to read him, and figured it couldn't hurt to start the day off by calling for CES's policy lynch to see the reactions (for example, if he mentioned the softclaim). And then I stuck to the vote even when we started thinking he was town again, for the reasons I mentioned above.

I should really be studying, and of course, just writing this post has made me paranoid that I'm wrong, but I'll try to explain where this read came from. It's part just intuition based on what CES has been saying/how he's been voting. But twinges of paranoia aside, we've been fine with him for most of this game, because he usually points out the same stuff we're seeing and played D1 as though he was actually honing in on who he thought was scum and looking at the big picture. And I did think the post I quoted from him looked very town (and Empire agrees with this). He doesn't to go the extra mile of giving your jason read weight, and his narrowing it down to Nacho seems natural. You can argue that he then said, "Well, maybe it's you/jason," but I really think his thought process looked very organic, and I never overtly suggested there was a link.

Add to that his only scum motivation for quickhammering someone he's sure will claim vanilla is to mimic what he'd actually do as town, or possibly prevent people from changing their minds on Whiskers (a good move if he thinks he can get away with it, but one that wasn't necessary), and that his hammer made sense given how convinced he seemed that he'd wrapped up the game. (That doesn't change that it was stupid and needlessly flashy for the sake of it, of course.)

As for reads/stances...that's the tough part. I feel like we've gone from having very clear reads to very murky ones. Empire actually wants to lynch , believe it or not, or possibly Nacho. I suspect pretty much everyone to some extent, but personally feel like jason is the "safest" option. I'm really on the fence on you, because some things you've said this game seem unlikely to be fake (for example, being so thrown off by the Sixty kill). But I wasn't fond of your stance on Whiskers, and your attack on CES...well, it's really, REALLY bad. Suspecting him is fine, but the reasons you're giving for suspecting him feel completely stretched. For example, although I can understand having a read on Syryana based on that big post, agreeing with his is weird. CES didn't contribute on D1? You had CES as a town read for his play on D1, for crying out loud! And that's not even getting into the NK WIFOM (which is a lot more plausible for an inexperienced player than an experienced one).

Speaking of which, I'll give Syryana a more in-depth answer to his question later.

I appreciate that post in that you are actually attempting to explain what you are doing. I don't agree with you, but I can see the thought process at least which is so much less maddening. I think I might have been overly harsh to you in 430, everything in mafia is pushing my buttons these days (now you see why Zach has been doing most of our hydra posting lately)

↑ Dazed and Confused wrote:You had CES as a town read for his play on D1, for crying out loud!

You might want to check this fact. I had CES as my weakest town read simply because he is CES. You even questioned me on this. This is like the second time in recent memory you have misrepp'ed me like this. The first was you saying I was suspicious of Jason all day one, when I actually called him town at first before slowly changing my mind and then again 180'ing today. Also saying it's okay to have a town read on Syryana after his big post but then saying me agreeing with what he posting is scummy, in what backwards world does that make any sense? Either I liked the post and agreed with some points, or the points were bad and fluffy and my vote sticks?

You need to stop waffling and get your vote down, this time on an actual scum suspect. This voting CES to test the waters is really kinda shitty in such a small game like this. We don't have time for fancy plays like this and it was why I was so lost on why you didn't actually want me to vote CES with you. Maybe I ruined this "gambit" without realizing, but what were you hoping to get from it?

What about my Whiskers stance didn't you like? It was you who was trying to convince me to vote him yesterday because you thought I was town and the "wagon needed my support for a lynch" or something like that. Would you feel better if I started talking about how town I am in this game (which I am) and then just sheeped you without stopping to question anything?

FT, what did/do you think of my hammer?

JasonT1981 has been prodded.

Just got done with the exam, will catch up tomorrow.

prod received, its 3.40am. Thought I had posted yesterday, obv not. Post tomorrow when its not 3.40am

↑ Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:FT, what did/do you think of my hammer?

It didn't come as any surprise. I probably would have done the same if you had voted for Whiskers before me. Why did you say Syryana's 383 wasn't bad?

↑ FourTrouble wrote:

↑ Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:FT, what did/do you think of my hammer?

It didn't come as any surprise. I probably would have done the same if you had voted for Whiskers before me. Why did you say Syryana's 383 wasn't bad?

He already answered that. See #483.

So barring the fact that you believe I'm an idiot, what are your thoughts on the goings on round here, FT?

↑ Sotty7 wrote:I liked him breaking down his thought process a lot. I think the detail was good, for Four to just crap on all that was pretty poor. The WIFOM nightkill stuff is what it is, but CES did little on day one that much is true.

If you liked the way he broke down his thought process, why didn't you like the part about me? It was equally if not more detailed than the section on CES. I also don't see how the way he broke his thought process down relates to alignment?

↑ Syryana wrote:So barring the fact that you believe I'm an idiot, what are your thoughts on the goings on round here, FT?

I never said I thought you were an idiot. The fact I'm calling you scum means I think you are less of an idiot than you are coming across as. It comes down to your post being full of shitty logic + clear scum motivation.

Clear scum motivation? Do elaborate.

I disagree that 383 didn't look informed. Syryana made the basis of her case on CES some WIFOM-filled analysis about how CES is still alive, and that is not something I see coming from a town POV because it means Syryana is assuming CES is scum as a starting point. Town don't assume anything because they are uninformed whereas scum tend to make assumptions about alignments when making their cases because they already know the alignment of everyone.

I do think CES is town though and on the right track in terms of finding Syryana's partner. Dazed and Confused is still town. Sotty is still town too but I have my doubts creeping in. Nacho/Jason are my top suspects after Syryana.