Mini 1543--Natirasha's On Parole!(Game Over)

[Bert]

"You think I'm scum, so I don't care what you think" etc. is shutting down from logical discussion

That's how it feels. By the way, I'm putting in a lot of effort in this game to try to be engaged. Please don't use VisCon 1523 and compare that to this.

[zMuffinMan]

"You think I'm scum, so I don't care what you think"

that is the opposite of what i said, though

[Bert]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Aronis

Give Aronis a break, Cabd. I'm pretty sure they're new.

Cabd was right about this being scummy.

Almost as bad as me defending Muffin. How do you know Aronis?

1 hour till Aussie open finals. Seeya tomorrow guys

[Selkies]

Selkies games:

Borkgame Micro, town: 671 posts http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go - survived LYLO

AMoL mini, town: 370 posts http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go - died night 4

Pinnipedum mini, scum: 208 posts http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go - survived LYLO (xmas holidays)

Bert, why didn't you say anything about my hydrae and high post volume?

[Bert]

Because I'm more spammy so I have no room to talk...hence my not bringing it up except to agree with whomever brought it up.

[Bert]

Oh, you wound me. My apologies if you guys are too advanced for me, but I've grown fond of training wheels.

Is this to be taken at face value?

I'm confused, because you seem to be thinking that 1. it was too early to matter that you were sheeping, and 2. it was late enough for people to have valid town reads on you. Those conflict, don't they?

Let me break this down...what lovely smartness in your post here. Does this confusion mean you think how MafiaSSK is thinking is 'unusual?'

Bert: Null-leaning anti-town. Not necessarily scummy, but his posts seem to be lighthearted to the point of being useless (#324 is a prime example). #327 doesn't explain reads, but there's not much point in me even bringing that up anymore, since it's all the rage.

What do you think of gut reads in general?

Selkies: Leaning town. Shares my irritation in unexplained votes, rightly probing Bert on his weak "analysis" of the day thusfar (being inexplicably pro-Muffin while also not giving an alternative target).

This is puzzling since you are reading Selkies as town based on actions that town (and scum appearing town) make. They appear irritated about unexplained votes and probe people with weak analysis. Is there another reason you're reading the hydra as town?

[Bert]

Between the playing monkeying and experianced player, and the player throwing names out at random hoping someone will latch on to them, I think we'll find scum

This "I think we'll find scum" feels so cautious!

Vote: RossWilliam

I'm going to get reads by 90% gut this game as I play along for a while, so don't ask me for reads for a while if you are okay with that...

Any list I flesh out now would be terrible and full of everything that tips scum and dummies off that I'm a great lynchbait target.

[RossWilliam]

bert is scum

he hasn't done anything completely antitown, he hasn't self-voted and he hasn't asked to be lynched

Is this a joke or something from meta? Because I don't understand.

FourTrouble. Thanks for finally explaining your vote, but I think your preoccupied with how I play. Some people throw votes and pressure around and use that to find scum, I tend to think out loud and see what people respond to and see how they interact with eachother. You can call it cautious or unagressive, but in my opinion you're more likely to find scum in someone who is trying too hard or being ingenuine. There's no room for townies to be deceptive. And if I was going after easy lynches, I'd be campaigning hard against some who would have a hard time defending himself, this game has a couple. My vote isn't on anyone yet and it'll stay that way until I have more to go on. I'm interested in King Kenny and Kaboooom because I don't have anything on them right now, and I want to compare them to the people who are currently topping my scum list

[The Goodfather]

alright @selkies, It should be said now that I am a bit of a math nerd, and i have spent some time looking over this post of yours, and i will be honest and say that looking over your meta has undeniably shown that you are far more active when town. There are also fewer hydra slips when you were scum, lending some credibility as well. I find statistics to be a better indicator of typical behavior than what someone says is their typical behavior. Words can be easily manipulated, but data and figures are harder to fabricate, and is usually a stronger basis for establishing meta in my opinion.



Please answer these questions tho, and depending on how you answer them, i may recast my vote:

1) were these the only other 3 games you have played together?

2) Does ffery typically post more often than orcinus? (this is just an observation I think is true. it may not be)

Selkies games:

Borkgame Micro, town: 671 posts http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go - survived LYLO

Total Posts: 2306, your hydra posts: 671, hydra slips: 14 from orcinus, 0 from ffery.

Total percentage of posts: 671/2306 = 29.1%

this game does fit your playstyle for this game. I admit that.

AMoL mini, town: 370 posts http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go - died night 4

Total posts: 1698, hydra posts: 370, hydra slips: 5 from orcinus, 16 from fferylit( i think that is the other head, correct?)

Total percentage of posts: 370/1698 = 21.8%

You had the most posts in this game as well, followed next by someone with a little more than half of your posts

Pinnipedum mini, scum: 208 posts http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go - survived LYLO (xmas holidays)

Total Posts: 1672, Your posts: 208, hydra slips: 4 from orcinus, 2 from ffery

Total percentage of posts: 208/1672 = 12.4%

You were also not the largest poster in this game, lending further strength to your defense and criticism of my claim.

This is the only game you were scum together? And nati's current game is your 4th game as a hydra with one another, correct?

thanks for answering these questions

[Bert]

What do you hope to gain or dispute with those stats?? I don't see eye to eye

[kabooooom]

bert is scum

he hasn't done anything completely antitown, he hasn't self-voted and he hasn't asked to be lynched

Is this a joke or something from meta? Because I don't understand.

FourTrouble. Thanks for finally explaining your vote, but I think your preoccupied with how I play. Some people throw votes and pressure around and use that to find scum, I tend to think out loud and see what people respond to and see how they interact with eachother. You can call it cautious or unagressive, but in my opinion you're more likely to find scum in someone who is trying too hard or being ingenuine. There's no room for townies to be deceptive. And if I was going after easy lynches, I'd be campaigning hard against some who would have a hard time defending himself, this game has a couple. My vote isn't on anyone yet and it'll stay that way until I have more to go on. I'm interested in King Kenny and Kaboooom because I don't have anything on them right now, and I want to compare them to the people who are currently topping my scum list

this isn't unexpected!
actually i m a pretty active player and post pretty often! But i m not being able to follow you guys! And those spams in the starting are really irritating! All what happens in the start is RVS fight and fight,over rules! I haven't read this game with full attention then after. I gave a quick look at iso of all players and selkies and cabd looked more suspicious! As selkies was a hydra and she had more votes, I thought of sheeping her, as if she is scum she will scum slip and if she is not, then the scums would go for hammer. If she seems town even under pressure then go for one of the most suspicious sheeped vote and pressure that player. If that player is scum, he ir she may scum slip. Either way, at this stage of game, i will leave scum hunting to you all.

[Bert]

actually i m a pretty active player and post pretty often! But i m not being able to follow you guys! And those spams in the starting are really irritating! All what happens in the start is RVS fight and fight,over rules! I haven't read this game with full attention then after. I gave a quick look at iso of all players and selkies and cabd looked more suspicious! As selkies was a hydra and she had more votes, I thought of sheeping her, as if she is scum she will scum slip and if she is not, then the scums would go for hammer. If she seems town even under pressure then go for one of the most suspicious sheeped vote and pressure that player. If that player is scum, he ir she may scum slip. Either way, at this stage of game, i will leave scum hunting to you all.

This post is so overeager town that it's not even funny. <3

[Selkies]

alright @selkies, It should be said now that I am a bit of a math nerd, and i have spent some time looking over this post of yours, and i will be honest and say that looking over your meta has undeniably shown that you are far more active when town. There are also fewer hydra slips when you were scum, lending some credibility as well. I find statistics to be a better indicator of typical behavior than what someone says is their typical behavior. Words can be easily manipulated, but data and figures are harder to fabricate, and is usually a stronger basis for establishing meta in my opinion.



Please answer these questions tho, and depending on how you answer them, i may recast my vote:

1) were these the only other 3 games you have played together?

There was one other game that I didn't include because we didn't complete it. The mod and orcinus had an altercation in another game and the mod force-replaced orcinus partway through day 1, but would have let me continue playing in our original slot. I quit in protest of his decision.

Goonies micro, town: 105 posts: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

2) Does ffery typically post more often than orcinus? (this is just an observation I think is true. it may not be)

In our first game (borkgame) we both posted at a prodigious rate. In our next two games, real life in the form of final exams and vacation trips to Shangri La impacted Orcinus' rate of play, and probably contributed to the significant decrease in posts between borkgame and AMoL. We hadn't played together as a hydra in quite a while prior to the Pinnipeds game. I think the holidays had more to do with our lower posting rate than our alignment (more about that later), but Orcinus was on vacation during a good chunk of that game, too.

Selkies games:

Borkgame Micro, town: 671 posts http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go - survived LYLO

Total Posts: 2306, your hydra posts: 671, hydra slips: 14 from orcinus, 0 from ffery.

Total percentage of posts: 671/2306 = 29.1%

this game does fit your playstyle for this game. I admit that.

AMoL mini, town: 370 posts http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go - died night 4

Total posts: 1698, hydra posts: 370, hydra slips: 5 from orcinus, 16 from fferylit( i think that is the other head, correct?)

Total percentage of posts: 370/1698 = 21.8%

You had the most posts in this game as well, followed next by someone with a little more than half of your posts

Pinnipedum mini, scum: 208 posts http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go - survived LYLO (xmas holidays)

Total Posts: 1672, Your posts: 208, hydra slips: 4 from orcinus, 2 from ffery

Total percentage of posts: 208/1672 = 12.4%

You were also not the largest poster in this game, lending further strength to your defense and criticism of my claim.

This is the only game you were scum together? And nati's current game is your 4th game as a hydra with one another, correct?

thanks for answering these questions

This is our 5th game together as a hydra, counting the game we were replaced out of. And Pinnipedum was the only game we've played as selkies where we were scum.

But, I think you are taking away the wrong conclusion from this. I'm not arguing that posting a lot is a town tell for me (or for orcinus, or for the amalgam that is selkies). I'm arguing that volume of posting isn't alignment indicative. I have over 50 completed games on site, as various hydrae as well as a solo player. When I started playing at MS, I was coming from a forum environment where game days lasted 12-24 hours, and the pace was pretty blistering. Playing a game was a super-high commitment for a week or two, and then it was on to the next game. It took me a while to learn to pace myself, and I'm still usually one of the highest volume if not the highest volume poster in a game, at least while I'm alive regardless of my alignment. In fact the only players who have ever left my postcount completely in the dust in a game was Bert in a newbie game, and buldermar a couple of the games we played.

People who played with me in my earliest games who then play again later have noticed a difference in the day-by-day intensity of my play.

And, in games where other players take a slower approach, I usually follow suit, though I gripe a little about the lack of data to analyze.

[The Goodfather]

thank you for answering my question @selkies.

I get now that you were trying to show that post count is not entirely indicative of alignment, but I do think that some players tend to be more active as town, and others attempt to be more active when they are scum in an attempt to appear pro-town.

From the few examples you've provided, it seems like you (both orc and ffery) tend to post more as town. This leads me to believe that the current game is more inline with your town meta than your scum meta. That may be a flawed conclusion, but I think that the data from the other games where you were a hydra together would indicate I

might

be wrong with my current read on you.

That being said, i am not just going to remove my vote. You are in no real danger of being hammered, so for now, i am going to keep my vote on you while i reread the thread and re-evaluate my read to see if anyone else sticks out more as scum.

[Natirasha]

Vote Count 1.16

MafiaSSK(1):

Idiotking

Cabd(0):

Selkies(4):

zMuffinman, Katsuki, kabooooomm, The Goodfather

zMuffinMan(1):

MafiaSSK

FourTrouble(0):

King Kenny(0):

The Goodfather(0):

kabooooom(0):

Bert(0):

RossWilliam(2):

FourTrouble, Bert

Aronis(1):

Cabd

Idiotking(0):

Katsuki(0):

No Lynch(0):

Not Voting(5):

King Kenny, RossWilliam, Aronis, Selkies

With thirteen alive, it takes seven to lynch.

Deadline:

(expired on 2014-02-04 21:00:00)

[Bert]

That being said, i am not just going to remove my vote. You are in no real danger of being hammered, so for now, i am going to keep my vote on you while i reread the thread and re-evaluate my read to see if anyone else sticks out more as scum.

It seems like you are preoccupied with being seen with your vote on Ffery/Orc. Why did you feel the need to provide a reason to keep your vote on the hydra?

Tentative Gut Reads (please don't kill me for this lol). thought about this game some this afternoon while having an iced latte lol

(1) Idiotking:

[town] starting to think (gut) that Idiotking vs. SSK is Town vs. Town. Reminds me of Mitillos under fire in past Resistance. Game isn't adjusted to current times.

(2) SSK

- town - think this is his town game....ffery what do you think?

(3) Katsuki

- null. Please explain why Selkie is scum??

(4) Ross

- Scum (#347 tone is off)

(5) Kaboom

- town - natural post/wall above in #435.

(6) Muffin

- a little restrained (it feels) in communicating with me. However, early wagon felt scum driven (gut-wise...), so I tend to think town..

(7) Kenny

- #334 and 363 0 just announces me as town for no reason...other than that is null. I don't really get him...is like scum trying to do as little as possible and stay out of the spotlight

(8) Aronis

- #353 feels like town frustration in a toolenduso Micro 260 (past game) kind of way...

(9) fourtrouble

- scum - discussion about rules and #186 explanation for Muffin-vote both feel made up

(10) Selkies

- we need you to be a leader here, ffery, and lead the town - both for my paranoia and for town's sake - take charge because all i notice is Orc doing most of the hard probing.

(11) Cabd

- tempted to call him gut-town, but TBD and null realistically. Will wait for him to feel better and join us again.

(12) Goodfather

- town - transparency is there - hard to explain as it's more intuitive than anything

[Bert]

From the few examples you've provided, it seems like you (both orc and ffery) tend to post more as town. This leads me to believe that the current game is more inline with your town meta than your scum meta. That may be a flawed conclusion, but I think that the data from the other games where you were a hydra together would indicate I might be wrong with my current read on you.

Well, I think it's flawed in that if it's true from the past, they should be aware of it.

[Selkies]

This entire page had me cringing the whole way through

Goodfather, do you have experience playing mafia offsite?

441 was the most open pile of WIFOM I've seen for a bit

In 440: out of curiosity can you tell the difference between our posts? Because I feel like Fery's play this game is on the same level of activity, if not more, than all her other games and idk what you're talking about

[Selkies]

And yeah, I've been VLA a lot of the selkies game, regardless of alignment. Thankfully I'm not in this game

[Bert]

#441 was because Ffery once said in a past game that she tended to lurk and hide behind her hydra partner as scum (in the past), so in Mismached Flavor (past game micro 231), she made a conscious effort to not lurk and stay as active as she is as town. It's conjecture, but "biggest open pile of WIFOM I have seen in a bit" is stretching it.

Do you have more things to comment on - aside from the recent posts you've had about what Hydras are and how many are ffery's, etc.?

Feel free to cringe, but maybe pick my posts apart then - or just let ffery sort me so you don't cringe. I think I am the type of poster that you'll probably have to resist raging at because of weak reasoning and logic.

[The Goodfather]

From the few examples you've provided, it seems like you (both orc and ffery) tend to post more as town. This leads me to believe that the current game is more inline with your town meta than your scum meta. That may be a flawed conclusion, but I think that the data from the other games where you were a hydra together would indicate I might be wrong with my current read on you.

Well, I think it's flawed in that if it's true from the past, they should be aware of it.

agreed, good players should be able to manipulate their playstyle at will, but I am not getting a vibe that they are trying to fit their playstyle as town, so I am leaning towards their post style being genuine.

This entire page had me cringing the whole way through

Goodfather, do you have experience playing mafia offsite?

441 was the most open pile of WIFOM I've seen for a bit

In 440: out of curiosity can you tell the difference between our posts? Because I feel like Fery's play this game is on the same level of activity, if not more, than all her other games and idk what you're talking about

I have only been playing for about a month, and my completed games are all on another site where the phases are typically 24 hours or less and there are no hydras. I am still adjusting to the longer phases and I am really slow with my adjustments to hydras. And I like to think I am able to distinguish between heads. Orc tends to post shorter more emotional posts that can be perceived as more aggressive than ffery. If I had to guess, I would say that this is orc's post i am responding too, but I am not sure. Am i wrong??

[Selkies]

No it's ok the cringe came more from goodfather's

statistical analysis

than anything else

Your 441 basically invalidates all scum-meta on us. Ever. So by that reasoning you would never have a reason to scumread us. Like I'm fine with that ofc, but I just don't think that it's conducive to actual scumhunting.

I'm phone posting and nothing stands out to me. I sort of want to talk to Cabd about aronis soon.

I might look at Ross/FT later today

[Bert]

Oh oops. What I meant is that the statistics were about quantity of posting in past town vs. scum games, and I was saying that posting less or more isn't alignment indicative in this game for your hydra as you'd be aware if your past scum-meta were lurking and posting less. Therefore, that element of meta from the past isn't effective/useful.

[Selkies]

Yeah, ok, it's a crap "statistic" to begin with.

But I think that even though people are aware of their scum-meta, they don't always manage to mask it. That's one of the fundamental assumptions I make when scumhunting.

[FourTrouble]

So, Ross/Muffin/Katsuki scum-team? That makes the most sense, at this point.