Mini 544/Mars 4 - Keyboard Mafia - Mod Abandoned


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Post Post #425 (ISO) » Fri Mar 14, 2008 12:17 pm

Post by eldarad »

KradDrol wrote:I've stated and re-stated my position.

Extra knowledge of liamcool's role will not change the behavior pattern of scum.


However, extra knowledge of liamcool's role
will
change the behavior pattern of the town.
No. The town will continue to try to hunt scum every waking minute, regardless of whether there is a prospect of no night-kill.

Scum will change their behaviour since a power role whose power is exhausted is a vanilla townie, even if they are confirmed.
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Post Post #426 (ISO) » Fri Mar 14, 2008 4:04 pm

Post by Peers »

I disagree. The scum, knowing that knowledge of liamcool's role will change town's behavior, will change their own behavior appropriately...
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Post Post #427 (ISO) » Fri Mar 14, 2008 5:22 pm

Post by KradDrol »

eldarad wrote:
KradDrol wrote:I've stated and re-stated my position.

Extra knowledge of liamcool's role will not change the behavior pattern of scum.


However, extra knowledge of liamcool's role
will
change the behavior pattern of the town.
No. The town will continue to try to hunt scum every waking minute, regardless of whether there is a prospect of no night-kill.

Scum will change their behaviour since a power role whose power is exhausted is a vanilla townie, even if they are confirmed.
Yes, but you get there with the help of night investigations, no? With no threat of night kill, the town can more comfortably go to the night phase in order to investigate.

And for scum, liamcool is a primary target regardless of whether or not his power is exhausted. If he's lost his power, then he's still a confirmed innocent, which means that he's top on the mafia's kill list. Nobody else in this game is beyond suspicion and the mafia can swing the sentiment towards or away any one of us, but they can't convince us that liamcool is scum, so therefore, they *have* to kill him even if he doesn't have his powers. My money is on the scum choosing liamcool as their target every night phase, until he's dead. In which case, we should know when that time is coming.
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Post Post #428 (ISO) » Fri Mar 14, 2008 5:43 pm

Post by HackerHuck »

KradDrol - I never like trying to rely on an investigative role to find our scum and I only like to no-lynch if it helps us get a numeric advantage at end-game.

Given our numbers, there's a pretty good chance that we can lynch scum today - I mean, do the math. Eight of us are alive. Assuming that Peers isn't
mafia
and Liam is pretty strong townie, that leaves only six of us as mafia suspects. If you're a townie, even a random vote is pretty likely to hit scum. Worst case of lynching a townie still gives us a lot of information, because you can guarantee that the mafia would be on that lynch.

I also don't think we want to try and get the SK yet. If Peers is telling the truth, we're better off letting him find the SK and if he's lying, then I think he'd agree that killing mafia is better for the SK right now.
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Post Post #429 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2008 2:01 am

Post by angelmouse »

Sorry for the delay. Thought I should put my thoughts on the liamcool matter. I disagree with KradDrol. I don't think more information is in any way helpful to the town. The fact we know he is on our side is enough. The precise details of his role will obviously be an advantage, but more of an advantage to scum. Any details of a town power role are more helpful to scum.
HackerHuck wrote:Given our numbers, there's a pretty good chance that we can lynch scum today - I mean, do the math. Eight of us are alive. Assuming that Peers isn't mafia and Liam is pretty strong townie, that leaves only six of us as mafia suspects. If you're a townie, even a random vote is pretty likely to hit scum. Worst case of lynching a townie still gives us a lot of information, because you can guarantee that the mafia would be on that lynch.

I also don't think we want to try and get the SK yet. If Peers is telling the truth, we're better off letting him find the SK and if he's lying, then I think he'd agree that killing mafia is better for the SK right now.
The maths make sense, never saw it like that. I would be behind that plan.

I'm not sure we should discount Peers though on the strength of his claim. Granted nobody has counter claimed and it seems enident that we have a SK (2kills N1), but he did investigate the same player twice (ok there was a replacement, but still). It could have been a mistake, as he said, but i just don't see how it could have been. All you would have had to do was to look at the front page to see the player list to realise and the lynch came very quickly after we replaced in so forgetting doesn't seem like a good argument. I'm in two minds about it. Unless i am mistaken, when he did claim we hadn't had any kills so how was he to know there was a SK, unless he was it himself or indeed his role is true. That said, I am going to believe him for the moment as the jigsaw puzzle pieces of this game seem to fit better believing him than not.
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Post Post #430 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2008 2:58 am

Post by eldarad »

angelmouse wrote:Unless i am mistaken, when he did claim we hadn't had any kills so how was he to know there was a SK, unless he was it himself or indeed his role is true. That said, I am going to believe him for the moment as the jigsaw puzzle pieces of this game seem to fit better believing him than not.
This is a good point, if Peers is a Psychiatrist then he would know of the existence of the SK because his role PM would say so. It makes it virtually impossible for Peers to be mafia.

As to investigating the same person twice, I guess I'm happier with that than if he was a cop. I'm not sure if there is such a thing as a SK-tell, so random investigating seems as good a method as any. In that context, not paying attention and investigating ML and HackerHuck isn't so unbelieveable I guess.

I'm strongly of the opinion that KradDrol is mafia, and he needs to be lynched today.
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Post Post #431 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2008 5:14 am

Post by ryanjunk »

I tend toward agreeing that pushing liamcool for more information is a bit suspect. The extent of liam's power leaves the scum in doubt, which can only be a good thing. If we all know more about how it works, the scum have a better idea who they can actually kill and when. I also carry forward previous suspicion of KradDrol's behaviour throughout the game. I'm going to do a solid re-read, but for now I suffice to say that I'd support a KradDrol lynch.

Given liam's claimed role, which seems believable based on the game so far, I also am coming around to believing Peers. I don't like his twice investigating, but I can see it as an honest mistake (heck, I've been inadvertently lurking up a storm, so I understand outside pressures).
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Post Post #432 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2008 6:17 am

Post by KradDrol »

And this is why the math never works. Good odds if you lynch scum, but you're not going to today if you lynch me, and the scum gets another night to burn off of liamcool's power.

I really can't believe that nobody else sees my argument here. Why would scum be in doubt if liam's power triggers automatically? Scum will just keep on sending in their NK till liam gives out and then we're all screwed. It's not like scum are going to go "Oh, well, liam says he has two more nights to stop NKs, so let's just not kill anyone tonight".

So please, explain to me how knowing more about liam's power is going to in any way affect how scum react. They're going to kill the confirmed townie each and every night until it goes through.

I feel like there's a big fricking pink elephant in the room right now and I'm the only one seeing it.
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Post Post #433 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2008 11:37 am

Post by SeraphicMirth »

I think really with liamcool, all we need is a "yep I can use it tonight" or "no, I can't". Because KradDrol is right, scum will send in the NKs whether they know if it will work or not. If liam can use it that night, I can see what KradDrol is saying about a no-lynch day so that we can just go into a no-kill night with investigations and other power roles to bring us more info for a possibly more successful lynch the next day (rather than possibly erroneously lynching a townie).

I don't think we need to know exactly how many times he can use it or whatever, though.

Speaking of liamcool...he hasn't posted in like 3 weeks??

I'm trying to read through and see who I think is suspicious but the craziness in the game makes it hard..I was hoping maybe we could get a read off of the Zeek lynch except he made it really easy for everyone (such as myself) to think he's scum, especially with his lie. bah.

I don't know. I have free time this week so I'll keep looking and post more soon.
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Post Post #434 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2008 11:46 am

Post by SeraphicMirth »

hmmf I feel like I should explain myself more because I guess I look rather lurkish..I have been really busy with the last couple of weeks of the term, and I said I'd post after last Wednesday and was still too busy. But, I WILL post soon with some analysis, I just want to make sure I put a proper amount of effort into it and have time to read through everyone that I feel a little ping about.
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Post Post #435 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2008 3:17 pm

Post by Iammars »

KradDrol (2) - eldarad, HackerHuck
Not Voting (6) - SeraphicMirth, KradDrol, angelmouse, laimcool, Peers, ryanjunk

Sorry about disappearing for a little bit. I had a bit of a problem with real life. Please forgive me. Mass prods either going out tonight or tomorrow, depending on how much time I have after I finish with my newbies. Basically, I'm just going to prod everybody, see how many replacements I need, go on a replacement drive, and set a deadline once I've got them all. I'm really getting pissed at the number of replacements in this game though.
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Post Post #436 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2008 5:33 pm

Post by HackerHuck »

KradDrol, I'd find your position a lot less scummy if your reasons for a no-lynch were different. Relying on an investigator and not wanting to take a position on anyone is more than a little scummy.
Unvote:KradDrol
- Time for me to eat my hat.


However, I have been thinking about it a bit more and I'm actually going to reverse course right now.

Looking at the numbers again, a no-lynch might not be so bad for us.

There are two big assumptions at work here - we have three mafia and an SK. If we've actually got a vig instead - and Peers' role is some kind of cruel joke by Iammars - then this is not a good idea.

If we end up lynching the SK and the mafia kill a townie at night, we will end up tomorrow morning in a 3-3 tie. I'm not sure what Iammars' rules are about ties, but they often mean a scum win.
Mod - could you clarify whether the game is over when only three vanilla townies and three mafia are alive?
I'm specifically wording it this way so we can hopefully get an answer without the mod saying that it would give away whether some roles exist.

Given that, I only think we should lynch if we
know
that Liam still has use of his ability. At this stage of the game, an SK is one of our biggest allies, especially if Peers is telling the truth.

Interestingly, I'm now leaning toward a no-lynch and letting Liam's ability remain unknown. I'd rather let him decide if it's better to use it or to keep the possibility of cross-kills alive. Liam's ability is much more useful for us once the SK is dead or town.

Vote: No Lynch


I realise this may be a stretch for some of you, so feel free to ask me to clarify my thoughts before jumping on me.
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Post Post #437 (ISO) » Mon Mar 17, 2008 7:04 pm

Post by liamcool »

I am not sharing any information about my role. So yeah. Take it as you will.
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Post Post #438 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 2:22 am

Post by angelmouse »

@HackerHuck
I don't agree with a no lynch. We just can't rely on liamcool using his power. I agree with him not giving any more information, as much as it would be helpful to town it would equally be useful to scum, (i am just happy in the knowledge he is a town and one less person to suspect right now) so we don't know whether he will or
if he can
use his power. Your no lynch idea only really works, in my eyes, if liamcool uses his power as it will give us an investigation lead.

If he can't use his power and we end up not lynching anyone today we lose at least one townie (maybe 2 if the SK/vig hits town instead of mafia) so that would be an instant lose tomorrow or tie anyway which i reckon would lead to a loss. Granted this is on the assumption we have 3 mafia. I may like the idea better if there was only 2 mafia in the group, but i have no idea, and I don't want to gamble it. I liked your previous thinking of playing the odds better than a No Lynch, to be honest, or maybe you can clarify your ideas a little more as right now i don't quite see the benefits.

I do agree that the SK should be strongly on the town's side right now as they wouldn't want to be left with a bunch of mafia. Actually i think the SK's best chance of a win with no mafia dead right now is to be "cured" by Peers (if indeed he is what he says he is).
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Post Post #439 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 3:30 am

Post by KradDrol »

If liamcool is unwilling to give us information, we have to assume that he cannot use his power tonight, which kind of makes the last two weeks of discussion moot. No lynch is not viable if there will be NKs.
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Post Post #440 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 9:33 am

Post by liamcool »

Do we even have any investigative roles aside from Peers? This is a bit of a bastard game after all...
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Post Post #441 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 10:36 am

Post by angelmouse »

That is a good point liam. We did have a miller though which leads me to believe there must be a cop despites Peers claim, as why then have a miller, may as well be a vanilla. Peers's role cures the SK so a guilty claim on the miller wouldn't really work in any game, even a bastard modding one IMO.

Saying that if we do have investigative powers they have been very quiet through out the game so obviously not hit scum, keeping it quiet, been very unlucky or been stupid. Considering we are on D3 with 3 town dead and had 3N you would have thought there would have been a guilty at some point and at least some information to go on. That said we have outed, semi-confirmed, town roles so another outed one isn't going to help the town.
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Post Post #442 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 2:14 pm

Post by Iammars »

I am about to prod everyone who hasn't posted since my last vote count.
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Post Post #443 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 2:25 pm

Post by SeraphicMirth »

I'm here, still working on reading in my bits of free time
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Post Post #444 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 2:26 pm

Post by SeraphicMirth »

EBWOP: (prod response)
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Post Post #445 (ISO) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 4:57 pm

Post by HackerHuck »

My whole point is that we will lose today if we lynch the SK (unless Liam can still use his ability). That's a bit of a danger in my opinion. That means that we definitely don't lynch Peers, and Liam's obviously not an option today either.

I think if the SK is willing to claim, it should be done. That will give us a nightkill tonight, plus one more townie tomorrow (or at least prove Peers' claim). Then I think playing the odds is a really good deal.

Basically the proposition is this for townies:

8 players = 3 mafia, 1 SK, 4 town.
Assume Liam & Peers are town, along with the voter.
That leaves 3 mafia, 1 SK, and 1 town
60% chance of scum
20% chance of SK (loss)
20% chance of town (LYLO next day)

The odds are a little worse for Liam and Peers, and obviously the scum have their own agenda.
Mafia will want to press for an SK lynch and they will have a 33% chance of guessing the SK (1 SK and 2 town).
SK will be like the town, but have better odds because there's no chance they hit SK. (60% hit scum, 40% hit town.)

It takes five to lynch, so scum will need to have at least two townies on the SK wagon to win.

The statistics are in our favour, but the biggest problem is that the SK often looks scummier than a townie and the mafia will probably be pushing for the scummiest looking townie to get lynched - that obviously makes their chances of lynching the SK better than random.

I still think no-lynch is better, but I am not too stubborn to change my position. If we do want to lynch, then we not only must make a case for why someone is scum, but we need to make a case for why they probably aren't the SK.
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Post Post #446 (ISO) » Wed Mar 19, 2008 1:50 am

Post by angelmouse »

I am worried about one thing in that idea and that is the loss of confirmed townies/claimed SK.

Do we have a doc now Zeek is dead, seeing as he was Back-up doc? If liam has lost/wont/can't use his power we will lose either liam, Peers or a claimed SK during the night.

I see now where you are coming from on the No Lynch idea, but i think i would be more in favour of hitting scum today via a lynch.

We have a 50/50 chance of doing it today, and even if liam can't vote Peers can so we have a better chance then. That all said I am also not too stubborn and if the town would prefer a no lynch then i could be in.
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Post Post #447 (ISO) » Wed Mar 19, 2008 2:07 am

Post by angelmouse »

Oh also, about the SK claim. I don't think the best idea. I'm sure the SK is on the towns side, at least for the moment, so claiming and being cured is just as much help to the mafia right now.

If the SK can NK it may help our odds (assuming they want to kill mafia, which i think they will) so if we lynch town by accident today they will have a better chance of hitting scum in the night and if we hit scum today they can read through and attenpt to make an educated guess on who a partner is.

If Peers hits, then we have a cured town who is helpful maybe even to the SK for winning purposes, but at least its not an outed cured town so the scum don't know. Peers will know that he has hit the SK so will back up if that player becomes under fire.

I think outing the SK would be a bad move for the town and for the SK. Maybe if the SK comes under pressure and has to claim, then they should tell the town, but not now.

All this claiming puts the scum infront with a list of people and roles to knock off one by one.

After thinking about it, i not behind a No lynch today or claiming or outing the SK (just now) and more behind analysing past behaviour to find scum to lynch today. I can see the statistics, but I reckon we could change the game around if we hit scum today.
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Post Post #448 (ISO) » Wed Mar 19, 2008 2:24 am

Post by ryanjunk »

So, I think that since our odds of lynching scum are good, and we're likely to lose at least one more of our rapidly dwindling townies tonight, a no-lynch is probably a pretty bad idea. I don't generally buy into math-based arguments, especially because this is a bastardly game and we have no idea what's going on, role-wise. I still think KradDrol looks scummy and have for a while. I'm going
Vote: KradDrol
and see where we get.

Also answering my prod, even though I already checked in today.
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Post Post #449 (ISO) » Wed Mar 19, 2008 8:50 am

Post by eldarad »

I'm not convinced that it will be so easy to 'tame' our SK.
For one thing, we can't be certain how the SK's win condition will change if he is targeted by the psychiatrist.

My money is still on lynching KradScum. In the end, the only way the town can win is by lynching mafia. We really need to start doing that today, rather than hoping that our local SK will help us out.
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