I have a predisposition to scumread stuff like the bolded. Which is why it took a Page 7 for Saudade to shake off my initial reaction to his play.
Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:17 pm
by fferyllt
In post 428, Demainer wrote:That's not what I asked. Why do you think I should think that you're not on a team with ivy?
If necessary, it can involve an analysis of your own play.
How do you think a player like Ivy would have reacted to a scum partner coming in with a null-town read and then in the course of 4-5 hours, with no interaction, switching to a POE scumread?
What was your read of Endless?
I'm not sure how she would react to something like that if that were what's going on here.
There's a fatalism that's creeped into her day 2 play that I didn't really feel in her day 2.
I realize I'm not answering your question. It's just not how I think about a game, especially one like this. As town, my interactions are all necessarily Town vs (??) with an occasional exception.
eh. I was hoping for more real-time interaction, Demainer. :/
Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:29 pm
by Demainer
I'm a bit on/off here, though I try to check in as much as I can.
Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:38 pm
by Demainer
In post 430, fferyllt wrote:How do you think a player like Ivy would have reacted to a scum partner coming in with a null-town read and then in the course of 4-5 hours, with no interaction, switching to a POE scumread?
What was your read of Endless?
I'm not sure how she would react to something like that if that were what's going on here.
There's a fatalism that's creeped into her day 2 play that I didn't really feel in her day 2.
I realize I'm not answering your question. It's just not how I think about a game, especially one like this. As town, my interactions are all necessarily Town vs (??) with an occasional exception.
It could be rehearsed (which is possible if there's an SE on the team), or it could be something else. That's why I'm asking the question.
endless didn't post nearly enough for me to form a hard opinion of his play, it can go either way, which is why I had him as null in my original post on alignments. I'm mostly using your activity as a substitute/indicator.
Ivy's inactivity could be fatalism, or deliberate.
Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:41 pm
by Demainer
I would still like a response to my question.
Why are your interactions all necessarily town? That statement already assumes your interactions could potentially not be town, so why isn't that the case?
Why are your interactions all necessarily town? That statement already assumes your interactions could potentially not be town, so why isn't that the case?
No, my statement assumes I can't possibly not be town. There is no subterfuge in what I've posted. The only way I have ever seen anyone form a useful read on me is by seeing me interact with data and form my own reads. I wasn't here in the moment from the start of this game, so the next best thing is to just read the previous posts and react to them, and then interact with new data as it hits the thread. Usually players figure me out when they can follow my trajectory and see how I've come about my reads. The process is extremely compressed here, but I feel like I'm putting more than enough into the thread to be readable.
It's always interesting to see that kind of stuff through a different lens, but it's a whole lot more interesting after the fact when I
know
the player's alignment.
I still don't think I'm answering the question you're trying to ask and at this point it's not really clear to me what you ARE asking because the re-asks don't clarify the asks. but maybe there's something useful in the answer you're getting.
Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:58 pm
by schadd_
Spoiler:
vote count 2.3
Ivyeo (2):
Demainer, Lukewarm
fferylt (2):
Egix96, Bell
Demainer (1):
Ivyeo
Lukewarm (1):
Clasko
not voting (0):
fferylt
with 7 alive, it takes 4 to eliminate a player. day 2 ends april 16th at 3:30 central US time; in (expired on 2021-04-17 12:00:00)
with 7 alive, it takes 4 to eliminate a player. day 2 ends april 16th at 3:30 central US time; in (expired on 2021-04-16 03:30:00)
ooba
[/area]
Teamhunting really isn't my strong suit but I think it's critical in this gamestate. If I can't find a partner for Ivy, I'm not super comfortable about voting there.
Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:50 pm
by Lukewarm
Hmmm. Much to think about. My issue is that the people I am most suspicious of, I can not imagine being a team. When I read through the ISOs, Ivy and Demainer both feel very scummy to me, but Demainer came out the gate on Day 2 pushing Ivy. So that tells me that I am definitely wrong on (at least) one of my scum reads. Now I feel like I am second guessing myself.
fferyllt has been posting a lot, which I really appreciate because I did not like how slow this thread has been moving, but I know that does not make her town.
Before she replaced in, Egix, a confirmed town, made post 346 where he said her slot must be scum from his PoV (along side either demainer or ivy). So if she replaced in as scum, and that was the current game state, she would need to talk a lot and lead the town a bit in order to shift that suspicion away from her slot. Her post 369 pinged me a little bit, that she may be trying to lead the conversation to clear suspicion off of herself. Demainer/Ivy really does not make sense as a pair to me, but she still put that out there. Feels like a "let me suggest pairs that do not include me" instead of "lets find the most suspicious pair." If she had placed in as town, I feel like it is more make more sense to focus in on Bell being the scum member paired with Demainer/Ivy.
So I am leaning towards fferyllt being scum.
I looked back at both Ivy and Demainer's iso, to compare their comments before and after Bell and fferlly replaced in, so see if there was a change in their posts based on them gaining a new scum partner. Ivy's post seemed consistent. Still minimal, and non-committal. Which is bad, but it did not feel like she had a new partner trying to give her advice. Demainer's posts on the other hand... they feel the same after bell replaced in, but starting after fferyllt joined do feel a bit different tome. And post 426 feels more like it is designed to keep the two of them being paired together rather then trying to help scum/town read fferllt.
So I am leaning towards the scum team being fferyllt + Demainer
Who do you think is, and why? You intimated you think it's Bell or me.
Which flip clarifies the most?
Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:59 pm
by fferyllt
I'm not going to be awake much longer tonight. Tomorrow I'll be able to spend most of the day on it and I want as much of the available time till deadline as possible to work on this.
Please, no early hammers. I'll just go ahead and call it a scumclaim if someone prevents my finalized reads from hitting the thread before this day ends.
Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:41 pm
by Egix96
In post 440, Lukewarm wrote:Hmmm. Much to think about. My issue is that the people I am most suspicious of, I can not imagine being a team. When I read through the ISOs, Ivy and Demainer both feel very scummy to me, but Demainer came out the gate on Day 2 pushing Ivy. So that tells me that I am definitely wrong on (at least) one of my scum reads. Now I feel like I am second guessing myself.
fferyllt has been posting a lot, which I really appreciate because I did not like how slow this thread has been moving, but I know that does not make her town.
Before she replaced in, Egix, a confirmed town, made post 346 where he said her slot must be scum from his PoV (along side either demainer or ivy). So if she replaced in as scum, and that was the current game state, she would need to talk a lot and lead the town a bit in order to shift that suspicion away from her slot. Her post 369 pinged me a little bit, that she may be trying to lead the conversation to clear suspicion off of herself. Demainer/Ivy really does not make sense as a pair to me, but she still put that out there. Feels like a "let me suggest pairs that do not include me" instead of "lets find the most suspicious pair." If she had placed in as town, I feel like it is more make more sense to focus in on Bell being the scum member paired with Demainer/Ivy.
So I am leaning towards fferyllt being scum.
(*)
I looked back at both Ivy and Demainer's iso, to compare their comments before and after Bell and fferlly replaced in, so see if there was a change in their posts based on them gaining a new scum partner. Ivy's post seemed consistent. Still minimal, and non-committal. Which is bad, but it did not feel like she had a new partner trying to give her advice. Demainer's posts on the other hand... they feel the same after bell replaced in, but starting after fferyllt joined do feel a bit different tome. And post 426 feels more like it is designed to keep the two of them being paired together rather then trying to help scum/town read fferllt.
So I am leaning towards the scum team being fferyllt + Demainer
UNVOTE: Ivy
Not as if I didn't already think Luke was town, but this, especially the part starting from (*), pretty much solidifies it for me.
In post 402, Bell wrote:Yes, scum are extremely unhappy with inactive games with inactive towns. They just hate that.
I don't agree, Demainer seems like an SE more than a newbie.
I agree Demainer is experienced. He's not trying to hide it. There was still nuance in that wheme tunnel. I also really liked his observation about Lukewarm that I called out in an earlier post.
It was going back and seeing the nuance, seeing the Lukewarm observation, and thinking about his participation rate during a dragging, low-energy game that broke down my own initial scumread.
If Demain is more experienced than I thought he was, then his push on Wheme was just terrible. It's something I can see coming from inexperienced town (personal comparison: 1898 Egix) but once you're past the early spike of the Dunning-Kruger curve you should know that you can't just mindlessly tunnel someone until they just die.
Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:07 pm
by Egix96
In post 423, Demainer wrote:who's the second scum, is it bell or ff hmm.............
Which of their predecessors do you think was more towny iyo?
In post 373, Egix96 wrote:Ivyeo's mentions of endless are too few to make a solid conclusion.
I feel like you're walking around my entry into the game.
Convince me that my process of elimination is wrong then.
My role PM says your vote is wrong.
I scanned my predecessor's ISO and the first 10 or so posts convinced me I'd be getting a town role PM.
Aside from me, your POE may be right, which is why I
asked you if Ivy/Demeaner make sense to you as a team.
My townreads are Clasko, you and Lukewarm. Bell maybe? I tend to be suspicious of his first few posts in games and then eventually his reads/stances just become near-unequivocal town to me when he's town. He's in the suspicious zone right now, but remembering that post he made about Prism in the Warehouse 13 game does put his reads list into a more townish light.
If Demeanor and Ivy are both scum, though, Demeanor's doing an ungodly amount of distancing for no apparent reason when I'm apparently miselimable despite my own read of my predecessor!
Ohhhh I thought you meant if either of them made sense as a partner with you.
I'm about 70% confident that Demain/Ivy is not svs. Am I right in thinking that your level of confidence is a bit higher than mine, based on the end of what I'm quoting here?
In post 402, Bell wrote:Yes, scum are extremely unhappy with inactive games with inactive towns. They just hate that.
I don't agree, Demainer seems like an SE more than a newbie.
I agree Demainer is experienced. He's not trying to hide it. There was still nuance in that wheme tunnel. I also really liked his observation about Lukewarm that I called out in an earlier post.
It was going back and seeing the nuance, seeing the Lukewarm observation, and thinking about his participation rate during a dragging, low-energy game that broke down my own initial scumread.
If Demain is more experienced than I thought he was, then his push on Wheme was just terrible. It's something I can see coming from inexperienced town (personal comparison: 1898 Egix) but once you're past the early spike of the Dunning-Kruger curve you should know that you can't just mindlessly tunnel someone until they just die.
Do you remember Wisdom or was he before your time?
I've known more than a few experienced players who deathtunnel. And some who use their deathtunneling reputation to advantage when scum, for that matter.
There are a few other signs of experience, but the strong opinion about Ahri's NK being antispew vs PR hunting suggests experience to me. I think spew terminology migrated to MS from MU, but the concept of low-info kills has been around for as long as I've been playing mafia.
In post 373, Egix96 wrote:Ivyeo's mentions of endless are too few to make a solid conclusion.
I feel like you're walking around my entry into the game.
Convince me that my process of elimination is wrong then.
My role PM says your vote is wrong.
I scanned my predecessor's ISO and the first 10 or so posts convinced me I'd be getting a town role PM.
Aside from me, your POE may be right, which is why I
asked you if Ivy/Demeaner make sense to you as a team.
My townreads are Clasko, you and Lukewarm. Bell maybe? I tend to be suspicious of his first few posts in games and then eventually his reads/stances just become near-unequivocal town to me when he's town. He's in the suspicious zone right now, but remembering that post he made about Prism in the Warehouse 13 game does put his reads list into a more townish light.
If Demeanor and Ivy are both scum, though, Demeanor's doing an ungodly amount of distancing for no apparent reason when I'm apparently miselimable despite my own read of my predecessor!
Ohhhh I thought you meant if either of them made sense as a partner with you.
I'm about 70% confident that Demain/Ivy is not svs. Am I right in thinking that your level of confidence is a bit higher than mine, based on the end of what I'm quoting here?
No, I'm not asking you to speculate on partners with me. You can entertain that idea all you like, but it's a waste of time that I'm not going to dignify.
I spent some insomnia hours thinking about Ivy partners and I'm having trouble coming up with one. I'm going to spend a little time looking at Saudade/Ivy interactions again.
Posted: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:31 am
by fferyllt
Saudade's level of interaction with Ivy and Demeanor don't feel partnery to me, given the two very recent scumgames I looked at yesterday. He's competent as scum and doesn't appear to hate rolling the alignment. I feel like scum-Saudade was more likely to continue playing than town-Saudade was in a game with this level of activity, but it's not a very informed opinion, more of a generic take based on players I think are similar to him.
I'm not happy with Bell's level of engagement, but I did kinda like how our sparring last night went. My gut thought I was talking to town-Bell, though my brain isn't completely on-board. I'm thinking back over our recent games where he was town and I don't usually townread him right off the bat. Eventually he posts enough content that I can see some of our reads converge and that's usually when the townread solidifies. There isn't going to be time for that this game day, and I can't make this a full-throated townread based on his activity alone.
I think this is the first time I've played with replace-in Bell, and it's not an ideal game for developing a yardstick given the low content and his availability.
Posted: Fri Apr 16, 2021 5:10 am
by fferyllt
I'm looking a lot harder at Lukewarm because if I'm right about Saudade and I'm right that there isn't an obvious partner for Ivy which decreases her scum equity, then Lukewarm is in the frame. If he's town, then I'm wrong about Ivy.
There's a missing piece of the puzzle if you're trying to figure out my reads. My Demainer townread has degraded and I'm considering him as scum.
Reading through Lukewarm's ISO, every stance and stance change is well telegraphed, and well thought out. And that alone actually pings on a non-surface level. Lukewarm is playing a cautious game. And that may be a personality thing but maybe not.
It reminds me a little of my first mafia game at MS. I drew scum in my first newbie. I had about 4 years of experience playing on other sites with much shorter game days, and I decided to play the game like I was a semi-experienced player who knew the lingo but had sort of naive ideas about scumhunting. My theories were solid (though not very imaginative) and my trajectories were flawlessly telegraphed. And the one big ping anyone mentioned the whole game was about a post I would have made as town without hesitation to deflect attention from an obvious PR. Anyway. That was a strategy I could only use once at MS and it worked great for that one game.
I don't usually look for "too perfect to be real" play in newbie games, but my other reads kind of force this issue.
The other possibility I entertained last night is that Demainer came into day 2 thinking that with 2 town deaths the scum team was somewhat exposed and mega-distancing was called for. This would explain how passive Ivy has been, maybe, if she's being bussed.
So, my theories are: {Demainer, Ivy}, {Demainer, Lukewarm} which leads to me voting Demainer today.
Barring PR data suggesting otherwise, I think Demainer has to be the elim tomorrow if y'all go elsewhere today.
