It was something he made up on the spot for certain, because T3 posted multiple times between me voting him, and him saying that it "felt opportunistic and scmmy."
Of course, there's not much chance that me mentioning that will change your mind, but I would advise against it being your main reason to suspect me.
"For certain"? Can you be sure of that?
It's not my only reason, but when one of these things is so very unlike the others, it makes me wonder.
Then again, it could just be bad luck on your part his flailing finger landed on you. But the fact it did land on you is worth considering.
I'm not married to my vote, but it's the best I've got right now.
In post 356, Xlos wrote:The more the day wears on the less I'm feeling like Zyla. Not only is the nightkill strange for a general player in her position, but it's strange for what I get of her personality in her position. Unless she was lying about if she thought that I was a mason during the night. Since this implies she was not PR hunting. Maybe she was trying to frame Egix, but she didn't even realize who killing Roden would insinuate 253. All in all it just seems incredibly unlikely. Here are the options I can think of for her being a mafia -
1) She's been lying constantly about everything from whether she thought I was a mason to who she thought the nightkill would be framing
2) She had some incredibly unlikely reasoning for the kill (like hoping that a post like this one would appear)
3) She rolled a die for the NK
I don't see any of these things having much chance of being real.
To me this really does seem like a very strong argument, I'm wondering if anyone thinks that I'm missing a likely case or thinks that one of these 3 cases is actually quite probable for some reason I can't see.
I wouldn't go so far as to say probable, but I wouldn't rule out a random choice for the scumpartner. After T3's strange behavior, it would be a way to further muddy the waters, and NKing Roden seems to have done that.
What I mean is that, if T3 had really "thought" it, he would have mentioned it much sooner.
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 2:40 am
by Lukewarm
In post 418, Xlos wrote: Though before I am totally convinced I'd like to hear someone's opinion against this defense of zyla:
In post 356, Xlos wrote:The more the day wears on the less I'm feeling like Zyla. Not only is the nightkill strange for a general player in her position, but it's strange for what I get of her personality in her position. Unless she was lying about if she thought that I was a mason during the night. Since this implies she was not PR hunting. Maybe she was trying to frame Egix, but she didn't even realize who killing Roden would insinuate 253. All in all it just seems incredibly unlikely. Here are the options I can think of for her being a mafia -
1) She's been lying constantly about everything from whether she thought I was a mason to who she thought the nightkill would be framing
2) She had some incredibly unlikely reasoning for the kill (like hoping that a post like this one would appear)
3) She rolled a die for the NK
I don't see any of these things having much chance of being real.
To me this really does seem like a very strong argument, I'm wondering if anyone thinks that I'm missing a likely case or thinks that one of these 3 cases is actually quite probable for some reason I can't see.
I feel like you limited the choices, when there is this possibility.
What from their iso makes you think that this could not be the case: She was looking for PRs. She saw what could have been a mason crumb from you, and commented on it. Once Mix responded, she knew that you+mix were not masons, but did not say anything. She killed Roden because she thought he was could me one of our PRs.
In post 367, Lukewarm wrote:I guess it seems weird that it would take her 18 mins to answer the question "who are your top 3 scum reads," but then only 12 mins to do a meta dive on T3
I don't like the first part, 18 mins to make a post could be 3 mins typing after 15 mins on the shitter. but the rest of what you're saying is actually pretty compelling
I think that all of her responses had a little bit of a delay, I just picked the longest one to compare lol.
But I would also like to point out that her responses today were after I asked "can you answer questions in real time," and even in that context there was a delay from her answers. But when she did the response to the meta stuff, there was not an expectation of real time responses you know?
Given the context of a "real time conversation" I would expect fairly quick response times. Given the context of "let me go check the meta of someone" I would expect a fairly long response time. But then both had similar over all response times.
In post 382, Wayward Son wrote:While laying in the dark (not sleeping),I kinda decided that I'd like to push Egix all the way to a claim. If he claims a PR, we can address it tomorrow.
this post is so chaotic if wayward is scum hahaha but I discounted that possibility a while ago
That is the exact feeling I got from this post. Some of Wayward's posts are a bit wild, but I am struggling to see a scum agenda to them
The mix slot is still town leaning for me, but that is mostly because Mix was pretty high on my town list Day 1. Need more time with Pavowski to see how I feel about them
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 2:55 am
by Lukewarm
Overall, I would say the Xlos has risen in my read list throughout the day, so I don't think I would be on board for a wagon there anymore.
I am between Zyla and Egix. I think that I am still leaning Zyla, but would be okay with a Egix wagon if other people don't like the zyla wagon (and it looks like both Egix and Xlos do not like the zyla wagon)
In post 418, Xlos wrote: Though before I am totally convinced I'd like to hear someone's opinion against this defense of zyla:
In post 356, Xlos wrote:The more the day wears on the less I'm feeling like Zyla. Not only is the nightkill strange for a general player in her position, but it's strange for what I get of her personality in her position. Unless she was lying about if she thought that I was a mason during the night. Since this implies she was not PR hunting. Maybe she was trying to frame Egix, but she didn't even realize who killing Roden would insinuate 253. All in all it just seems incredibly unlikely. Here are the options I can think of for her being a mafia -
1) She's been lying constantly about everything from whether she thought I was a mason to who she thought the nightkill would be framing
2) She had some incredibly unlikely reasoning for the kill (like hoping that a post like this one would appear)
3) She rolled a die for the NK
I don't see any of these things having much chance of being real.
To me this really does seem like a very strong argument, I'm wondering if anyone thinks that I'm missing a likely case or thinks that one of these 3 cases is actually quite probable for some reason I can't see.
I feel like you limited the choices, when there is this possibility.
What from their iso makes you think that this could not be the case: She was looking for PRs. She saw what could have been a mason crumb from you, and commented on it. Once Mix responded, she knew that you+mix were not masons, but did not say anything. She killed Roden because she thought he was could me one of our PRs.
That was the first possibility, though you're right that its worded way too unfavorably since she doesn't need to have been lying about
everything
. But she does need to have been lying about thinking me and Mix were masons, a thing which she claims she believes in quite a few posts D2 (most strikingly 255)
243
255257272. And there are some more besides these. So there would be a pretty big lie going on.
So far I think the best observation is Lukewarm's observation on T3's post. It's not particularly convincing but it stands out among the crowd of meaninglessness. If T3 is scum, then I'll be convinced that Lukewarm is town.
Next in the list is MixLixWix, especially in the last few hours, his discussion starting skills have been really good. Though I hesitate to say how much town lean this gives him since the mafia can also be active, I think it is helping the thread move along so in any case it is pro-town and pro-fun behavior.
Everyone else is null, I need to look more.
And then most suspicious is T3 due to that observation by Lukewarm. I'll put my vote on him if needed, but for now I'm going to try poking more at the nulls.
This feels like distancing to me looking back.
why?
The way I'm reading it just seems noncommittal, "t3 is scummy, but I don't want to vote for him, unless other people want me to vote for him"
In post 367, Lukewarm wrote:I guess it seems weird that it would take her 18 mins to answer the question "who are your top 3 scum reads," but then only 12 mins to do a meta dive on T3
I don't like the first part, 18 mins to make a post could be 3 mins typing after 15 mins on the shitter. but the rest of what you're saying is actually pretty compelling
I think that all of her responses had a little bit of a delay, I just picked the longest one to compare lol.
But I would also like to point out that her responses today were after I asked "can you answer questions in real time," and even in that context there was a delay from her answers. But when she did the response to the meta stuff, there was not an expectation of real time responses you know?
Given the context of a "real time conversation" I would expect fairly quick response times. Given the context of "let me go check the meta of someone" I would expect a fairly long response time. But then both had similar over all response times.
With the fact that it's a forum that you have to refresh to see new posts and not like an IRC board or Discord, I think I might've been a little loose on the definition of a real-time conversation tbh. With the checking the meta, I was easily able to go and do that without having to wait for another response, and given that I knew what I was looking for, and was checking ISOs, it was fairly quick, even if it wasn't the most thorough
In post 435, Lukewarm wrote:Overall, I would say the Xlos has risen in my read list throughout the day, so I don't think I would be on board for a wagon there anymore.
I am between Zyla and Egix. I think that I am still leaning Zyla, but would be okay with a Egix wagon if other people don't like the zyla wagon (and it looks like both Egix and Xlos do not like the zyla wagon)
I don't like the Zyla wagon either
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 5:47 am
by Xlos
Just want to mention that the day ends in about a day, so we should at least put someone at E-1, and get them to claim. If they claim cop we need time for a counterclaim.
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:46 am
by Zyla
.. I just noticed that
Gypyx
said that we
have
to have enough votes to cause an elimination (rather than just the person with the most votes at the end of the day is eliminated), so yeah, Xlos has a point there.
VOTE: Egix honestly, whether or not you are town, you seem to be posting very little, and saying even less when you do post, which isn't very helpful to the town.
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 7:59 am
by Lukewarm
I guess you should go ahead and claim Egix.
You can treat this as my
intent to hammer
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 8:06 am
by Lukewarm
This game will be infinitely more interesting at the moment, if we are actually in column C
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 8:36 am
by Zyla
In post 442, Lukewarm wrote:This game will be infinitely more interesting at the moment, if we are actually in column C
Because we would only have one PR? (Assuming there aren't
actual
masons who were probably laughing at me in their thread )
