Open 781: JK9++ Game Over!

[PenguinPower]

Good afternoon.

[Menalque]

hey, also, @a50 has skitter ever misread you?

She's been doing that for a few games now. She leans to SR me more nowadays, actually.

Whereabouts most recently?

[Almost50]

I mean, I don't keep hard records, bur she had a spell of reading me accurately 100% of the town, then she got overly confident and she started doing it the wrong way. Like, in C9++ (since that one comes to mind of late) she still suspected me some, when NSG had already caught my crumb (of being VT). It wasn't until I reminded her directly of how I crumb that she dropped it.

Suffice it to say, I'd take her TR on me for granted, but I will be reluctant to accept her SR on me in any given game.

[Almost50]

That is.. "I'd take her TR on me to

be correct

for granted"

[Menalque]

Hmmm

[Menalque]

Plus, we've seen how he reacts in pure anger when he went at you and even apologized after the fact. That leads me to believe that also wasn't faked. Yes, scum can get angry. But Peng doesn't strike me as the type to get mad for being scumread in a game of mafia. Now if he's getting misrepped as town? I can see it.

Get where I'm going?

Y-es, I just don’t know if I’m totally convinced yet

[Menalque]

I’m mulling

I’m gonna mull for a little bit

[Bingle]

Plus, we've seen how he reacts in pure anger when he went at you and even apologized after the fact. That leads me to believe that also wasn't faked. Yes, scum can get angry. But Peng doesn't strike me as the type to get mad for being scumread in a game of mafia. Now if he's getting misrepped as town? I can see it.

Get where I'm going?

Y-es, I just don’t know if I’m totally convinced yet

It kinda doesn't matter if you are, tbh.

You die tonight regardless. Maria is sold on PP town and a successful scumlynch requires all of the town players to be on it tomorrow.

PP has already won the game if he's scum, so thinking about PP scum is a waste of time.

[MariaR]

If Mena hard tells me to lynch PP because he's that confident in it I will not selfishly hold up the game to my own reads. But A50 agrees he's town as well. What's your and S_S thoughts on him?

[Bingle]

I'm only willing to lynch A50 at this point, tbh. He makes the most sense as scum of all remaining players by VCA and he's pushing a bad faith argument to include me in the lynch pool when common sense says I shouldn't be in the lynch pool at all.

[MariaR]

I'm still at S_S/A50 and if I'm wrong I want people to present me why I should lynch Bingle/Peng with that said...a new chapter in my romance book came out online today. Byeeee~

[Menalque]

If Mena hard tells me to lynch PP because he's that confident in it I will not selfishly hold up the game to my own reads. But A50 agrees he's town as well. What's your and S_S thoughts on him?

N-on DON’T PUT THAT PRESSURE ON ME MARIA, TELL ME YOU’RE STUBBORNLY STICKING TO YOUR OWN READS NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS

[Bingle]

I mean... I could quote the reasons I think SS is town. I think both you and Mena make compelling arguments for PP town. A50 is very much acting not town.

If I have to be lynched, he's the other lynch 1000% of the time. I should not have to be lynched.

[Bingle]

N-on DON’T PUT THAT PRESSURE ON ME MARIA, TELL ME YOU’RE STUBBORNLY STICKING TO YOUR OWN READS NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS

The pressure of whether or not to lynch the person you're townreading?

Dude, just accept that in the case where Penguin is scum he's snowed enough of the remaining players that it's just not worth agonizing over. If he's scum he deserves the win.

[Menalque]

I think both you and Mena make compelling arguments for PP town.

Err

Where did I do this?

[Menalque]

Do you mean the bit where I said “I’m not sure if he makes sense with the VCA” or the bit where I said “I kinda liked that he was funny this page”?

[Bingle]

The VCA.

[Bingle]

Specifically, it means there was a wagon of 4 town on maria!town in response to S_S wagon collapsing

And instead of moving or doing anything to support the most likely wagon to then flip town, PP kept softbussing the whole time

Plus, we've seen how he reacts in pure anger when he went at you and even apologized after the fact. That leads me to believe that also wasn't faked. Yes, scum can get angry. But Peng doesn't strike me as the type to get mad for being scumread in a game of mafia. Now if he's getting misrepped as town? I can see it.

Get where I'm going?

Peng trying to 1v1 someone he'd know was unlynchable (you, post tracker claim) also doesn't strike me as likely from scum.

[ofrhz]

VOTE COUNT 4.2

Bingle [1]:

Almost50 [4161]

Almost50 [1]:

Bingle [4253]

Not Voting [4]:

Menalque [4196], MariaR, Something_Smart, PenguinPower

With

6

alive, it takes

4

to hammer.
Day 4 ends in

(expired on 2020-07-10 11:30:00)

Game Notes:

n/a

[Menalque]

I think it’s perfectly likely he might have used it, specifically the ninja component

WHY WOULD I USE THE NINJA N2 WHEN I EITHER KNEW THERE WAS A RISK OF FAILING THE KILL OR SHOT PB AND ALSO HAD A CLAIMED VIG WHO NEEDED TO DIE?

A50 is arguing that the answer to that question is because I somehow knew all of: "It was a JK, not a doc. The vig who had every remaining scum in her bottom tier of reads was going to shoot the one least likely to endgame. There was an unclaimed tracker who would be targeting me."

I could not have known any of those to the degree I would have been comfortable acting on them. I wouldn't have let FB die because leaving him alive to be lynched doesn't hurt me and if he does get lynched I can bus him for towncred. Me being scum here presumes simultaneously that I am impossibly good at being scum AND impossibly bad at being scum.

Because of the exact reasons I already laid out...?

You’d know that there were other PRs in the game beyond skitter and that the statistically most likely would be a tracker. You’d know that they were likely to be on you. I wasn’t looking for PR crumbs but you probably were so it’s probable that you picked up Blake crumbing that she was on you N1.

If you’d roleblocked on N2 I would have tracked you and caught you and firebringer would have been lynched too. Is it suboptimal to let skitter shoot and maybe hit you and if not you then likely your scumbuddy? Absolutely. But faced with losing for sure if you didn’t do that, it’s not a bad option for you

[Bingle]

First of all, there's no basis to the idea that Tracker is statistically more likely than any other PR. In fact, statistically speaking, protective roles would have had a preference (assuming scum didn't shoot Pink Buddy).

Second of all, playing around a role that might exist at the expense of playing around a role you know exists is just bad play. Take the theoretical case: I would have been fucked if vig shot me. I would have been fucked if tracker tracked me. I would have KNOWN vig existed. I WOULD NOT KNOW tracker existed. I would have known vig suspected me. I would not have known tracker suspected me, necessarily.

Your argument both presumes I accurately guessed all of the roles in the setup when they were unclaimed AND that I would choose to play around the one I didn't have confirmation on. Hence, I would have been both insanely good at picking out PR crumbs and insanely bad at cost reward analysis.

Also, Lilith claiming vengeful when I already mentioned solid scum claims in the main thread and would 100% have taken that opportunity to write a claim guide in the scum PT if I were scum.

I also went out of my way to ensure Maria was actually hard cleared instead of soft cleared yesterday by getting Blake to commit to a JK crumb.

Lynching me is 100% the stupidest idea someone could have in this game, barring lynching an actual hard clear.

But if you want to potentially throw the game away on dogthoughts, at least lynch A50 too.

[PenguinPower]

I will follow Maria.

Bingle is making me rethink and I can’t trust myself.

[Bingle]

First of all, there's no basis to the idea that Tracker is statistically more likely than any other PR. In fact, statistically speaking, protective roles would have had a preference (assuming scum didn't shoot Pink Buddy).

To explain this, before anyone asks, yes, each non T result has a 15/50 chance of being a Tracker. Each non T result therefore has a 35/50 chance of being a role which ninja doesn't interact with in any way. Let's make that 15/40 and 25/40, to make the assumption of no vig, which is not a given.

The odds that at least one tracker is in the game from the perspective of scum who makes the reasonable conclusion of 3 town Power roles, one of which was a vig given what we now know the scum must have known going into N2 is (15^2+25*15)/40^2 or ~38%. Less than half of the time. The odds of either a hider or role cop existing is higher, and both of those are much more dangerous to potential JOAT scum me.

There was evidence that at least one of the roles being protective, assuming scum didn't kill PB, and thus the odds of there being a tracker were even lower. Scum me would know this, and thus would play around the bigger threats, not the smaller ones.

[Almost50]

@Bingle: AP suspects you're intentionally distracting him with you new avatar. He says he keeps staring at .. @$% [connection terminated]

[MariaR]

What do you mean I can't just shift the blame if I'm wrong to Mena? Boo.

I think most of us are in agreement that S_S is 1 of the 2 lynches right? Or do people have another combo to talk about that doesn't include S_S?