Page 177 of 183
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2020 2:33 pm
by davesaz
I can't rule out correct thought and badly incorrect typing.
Would you like to try again?
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2020 2:39 pm
by Hoopla
In post 4399, davesaz wrote:It would be an exaggeration to say there are more holes than correct points in that.
Only a slight exaggeration.
if S&M is scum, we get to test two other slots for the third scum. are you disagreeing with that point? or are you disagreeing with S&M scum?
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2020 2:39 pm
by Smoke and Mirrors
In post 4397, Hoopla wrote:thinking about this more, it may be optimal to elim today especially if S&M is one half of the team. and
especially
if N_M is the third.
the logic:
if we elim scum!S&M, there's no JK shenangians tonight. and given we would be down to one scum, it would prevent N_M from neighbourising
and
killing in the same night as scum don't have informed. so, if N_M is scum, he can't kill at night, which gives us an extra mis-elim. if N_M is town, and a kill happens, it confirms N_M as town as long as he neighbourises someone. this prevents us from burning a mis-elim on him if he's town.
this all hinges on S&M being scum. if they are, i think there's no way we don't brute force a win, as we get to test N_M
and
another slot in case we're wrong.
whereas, if we go the no-elim route we only get to test one slot other than S&M.
there's not going to be a tomorrow because after I die the scum will kill and win the game at 2-2
all this fancy theory stuff doesn't mean anything when you get punched in the face.
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2020 2:41 pm
by Smoke and Mirrors
we have 3 options
1) You believe im town JK, we elim scum, I get 25% shot of roleblocking the last scum.
2) You believe im town JK, we no-elim, scum get to shoot and we play F5 tomm
3) You believe im scum jk, you kill me, we lose.
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2020 2:42 pm
by Smoke and Mirrors
btw you guys should notice like nobody believes im a town JK despite 2 no-kills
so itd be literally the worst gambit in the history of mafia to no-kill twice for lulz and then bus ur partner cuz why not.
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2020 2:58 pm
by Infinity 324
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:15 pm
by Smoke and Mirrors
like infinity
every1 thinks im scum
dont u think thats kinda wierd?
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:16 pm
by Infinity 324
Everyone thinks you’re scum, but that includes n_m who wants to elim dave instead even though you being town makes no sense from their perspective
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:17 pm
by Smoke and Mirrors
In post 4407, Infinity 324 wrote:Everyone thinks you’re scum, but that includes n_m who wants to elim dave instead even though you being town makes no sense from their perspective
what?
i protected NM from NK or the scum no-killed
why would me being town not make sense from their POV?
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:22 pm
by Best Bird
Who's scum? You're doing a lot of defending and throwing shade, but you aren't actually saying who is the scum we elim today or the scum you have a 25% chance of catching tonight.
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:24 pm
by Best Bird
In post 4399, davesaz wrote:It would be an exaggeration to say there are more holes than correct points in that.
Only a slight exaggeration.
Would you like to point out the inaccuracies or just be an ass about it?
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:27 pm
by Infinity 324
In post 4408, Smoke and Mirrors wrote: In post 4407, Infinity 324 wrote:Everyone thinks you’re scum, but that includes n_m who wants to elim dave instead even though you being town makes no sense from their perspective
what?
i protected NM from NK or the scum no-killed
why would me being town not make sense from their POV?
If both of you are town, since both of you were leaning towards voting me yesterday, scum can just wait for one of you to vote me and quickhammer.
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:28 pm
by Infinity 324
I’m maybe willing to accept that scum bussed rather than take the risk of one of you changing your mind, but both being town seems absurd.
n_m didn’t actually say they were leaning towards voting for me but they did said that me pushing the redirector angle was gross, implying that I was scummy.
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:36 pm
by Smoke and Mirrors
In post 4409, Best Bird wrote:Who's scum? You're doing a lot of defending and throwing shade, but you aren't actually saying who is the scum we elim today or the scum you have a 25% chance of catching tonight.
2 scum in [hoopla, best bird, dave]
are you scum birdie?
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:38 pm
by Best Bird
I'm literally the momentum behind the eod s_s elim yesterday.
That's a bad list.
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:41 pm
by Smoke and Mirrors
In post 4414, Best Bird wrote:I'm literally the momentum behind the eod s_s elim yesterday.
That's a bad list.
bussing for cred is pretty common play in 7p elo to setup win at 5p elo
who should I be putting on the list instead?
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:43 pm
by Best Bird
bussing for cred when you can start the momentum on the alternate wagon is stupid
we've been over this.
i'm pretty strongly sold on you needing to be in that list but obv you won't add yourself.
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:44 pm
by Infinity 324
For reasons I mentioned in
4412 and elsewhere, I really think n_m should be on the list.
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:52 pm
by Smoke and Mirrors
In post 4416, Best Bird wrote:bussing for cred when you can start the momentum on the alternate wagon is stupid
we've been over this.
i'm pretty strongly sold on you needing to be in that list but obv you won't add yourself.
r u serious right now.
7 players 3 scum
1v1 deadlock
as scum u start momentum on your own teammate, either town bites and pushes teammate out and you have sweet cred for 5P win
OR
town doesnt bite, votes the OTHER guy, you flip momentum and you get a quick-elim on the other guy for the win.
It's like classic mafia playbook in 7P elo.
What doesnt happen is 3 mafia vote together and get crushed when entire town is just like "nah no"
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:58 pm
by Best Bird
r u serious rn?
THE SUPPORT TO VOTE FOR INFINITY WAS ALREADY IMPLIED BY YOU, NM, AND DAVE.
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2020 4:03 pm
by Smoke and Mirrors
In post 4419, Best Bird wrote:r u serious rn?
THE SUPPORT TO VOTE FOR INFINITY WAS ALREADY IMPLIED BY YOU, NM, AND DAVE.
r u saying we're all scum?
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2020 5:56 pm
by davesaz
In post 4397, Hoopla wrote:
if we elim scum!S&M, there's no JK shenangians tonight. and given we would be down to one scum, it would prevent N_M from neighbourising
and
killing in the same night as scum don't have informed.
Scum don't have multitasking.
so, if N_M is scum, he can't kill at night, which gives us an extra mis-elim. if N_M is town, and a kill happens, it confirms N_M as town as long as he neighbourises someone. this prevents us from burning a mis-elim on him if he's town.
It's possible to have a no-kill and no-neighborize, if the 3rd scum is RB. That slot was not claimed to have been picked by anyone, and any of the "last in a chain" claims could be a fakeclaim to hide the RB.
this all hinges on S&M being scum. if they are, i think there's no way we don't brute force a win, as we get to test N_M
and
another slot in case we're wrong.
whereas, if we go the no-elim route we only get to test one slot other than S&M.
S&M being scum requires scum to have chosen to no-kill AND to block N_M instead. I don't see why you'd argue this is more likely than town!S&M saving town!N_M or blocking scum!N_M, especially after it's already happened once. Because S&M scum means that Mena was a no-kill to frame. S&M can't both be town who saved Mena and scum who blocked N_M.
I don't understand what you mean by "test". Roll the dice on an elim and hope we're not wrong? You're assuming town just wins the 3p that results, which is absolutely not a brute force win.
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2020 6:04 pm
by davesaz
I think N_M is scum neighborizer, it fits the pattern of using it only once to establish the role, and it fits the JK target stopping N_M from killing. The corollary is that N_M's buddy is townread, as the higher risk partner makes the kill when there is a watcher around to possibly see it.
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2020 6:05 pm
by Not_Mafia
I’m town
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2020 6:28 pm
by Hoopla
In post 4421, davesaz wrote: In post 4397, Hoopla wrote:
if we elim scum!S&M, there's no JK shenangians tonight. and given we would be down to one scum, it would prevent N_M from neighbourising
and
killing in the same night as scum don't have informed.
Scum don't have multitasking.
ah yes, that's a typo. scum don't have
multitasking
is what i meant to say. so, if there's one scum left N_M-scum won't be able to neighbourise and kill in the same night.
In post 4421, davesaz wrote:
so, if N_M is scum, he can't kill at night, which gives us an extra mis-elim. if N_M is town, and a kill happens, it confirms N_M as town as long as he neighbourises someone. this prevents us from burning a mis-elim on him if he's town.
It's possible to have a no-kill and no-neighborize, if the 3rd scum is RB. That slot was not claimed to have been picked by anyone, and any of the "last in a chain" claims could be a fakeclaim to hide the RB.
this is actually a decent point. we've ruled out the doctor from existing, but technically a scum RB could exist. so, you're right here. a no-kill/no neighbourise could occur. but if we eliminate scum today, a kill tonight would still confirm N_M as town (because the scum RB wouldn't be able to block and kill in the same night), which was my main point.