Mafiascum.net

Posted: **Mon Dec 21, 2020 9:09 pm**

The funny thing is mathematically we have the same chance of having 2 scum on this side as we do over there. It's all based on reads that people think it's a higher chance of getting to 0 scum on their side than ours.

So I really could make the argument that sending skittle over has the highest % chance of the strat working anyways. The amount of thrashing in our thread suggests lots of TVT, while the other thread is a nice haven for scum to lurk and avoid conflict.

Posted: **Mon Dec 21, 2020 9:11 pm**

If anything getting a partially mech confed scum over to other thread RAISES the odds of the plan working (0.00000001% to 0.00001%?) It's clear that people either have not thought this through or have ulterior motives

Posted: **Tue Dec 22, 2020 1:03 am**

@other thread your plan has like pie-in-the-sky levels of efficacy and i think is remarkably unlikely to acfually work

It's a wild goose chase given that you dont actually even know how many scum you have over there.

The fact that your reads are so damn consensus-y also points to it just not working

Once again, i look at the other thread and hp is pinging me

Posted: **Tue Dec 22, 2020 1:08 am**

In post 3251, Hench Princesses wrote:It's like "turnstile a scummy watcher" vs. "ic half the game and cut scum kills in half" -- uhh, if every single TPR is temporally gated, actually turnstiling the scummy watcher is better, but without a massclaim option 2 looks WAY more appealing

In post 3253, Hench Princesses wrote:If you argued skitter was solvable as town, then you'd have an argument. Otherwise, this "the plan cannot ever work" argument is just wasting our time. Obviously scum will try to not let the plan succeed.

Literally exactly how scum approaches this if town over there is on the wrong track

Posted: **Tue Dec 22, 2020 1:12 am**

In post 3256, Hench Princesses wrote:
In post 3255, Gypyx wrote:I strongly advise against pre-flip associatives, always worked out terribly for me lol
My view of pre-flips varies on the game, but I think pre-flipping yourself in your own analysis is okay personally. Maybe that's a wild against the grain take though....

Like no, this isnt a real thought (who *ever* arguea that preflips are ok?) But they need preflips fo be ok in order for their explanation for why the plan is good to make sense, so look at that, suddenly they're making an argument that preflips are fine, which goes against like common sense knowledge

This is what i mean by 'i dont believe their thoughts are real' and 'their takes are expedient and circumstantial'

Posted: **Tue Dec 22, 2020 1:18 am**

In post 4400, superbowl9 wrote:. The amount of thrashing in our thread suggests lots of TVT, while the other thread is a nice haven for scum to lurk and avoid conflict.

Hey that's what i said!

Posted: **Tue Dec 22, 2020 1:21 am**

Pooky i need you to get in here and like go over why you did everything that you did yesterday

Also, honestly, if pooky is in fact scum i would argue that there's still at least 2+ scum over there

Posted: **Tue Dec 22, 2020 1:29 am**

In post 4404, skitter30 wrote:
In post 3256, Hench Princesses wrote:
In post 3255, Gypyx wrote:I strongly advise against pre-flip associatives, always worked out terribly for me lol
My view of pre-flips varies on the game, but I think pre-flipping yourself in your own analysis is okay personally. Maybe that's a wild against the grain take though....
Like no, this isnt a real thought (who *ever* arguea that preflips are ok?) But they need preflips fo be ok in order for their explanation for why the plan is good to make sense, so look at that, suddenly they're making an argument that preflips are fine, which goes against like common sense knowledge

This is what i mean by 'i dont believe their thoughts are real' and 'their takes are expedient and circumstantial'

Actually i retract this post, i misread the quoted hp post in a way that changes its meaning, and i am wrong, so i retract

Posted: **Tue Dec 22, 2020 2:48 am**

In post 3282, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 4406, skitter30 wrote:Also, honestly, if pooky is in fact scum i would argue that there's still at least 2+ scum over there

OK. You got any idea where these scum are?

And who is consensus-y?

I think Hench Princesses looks pretty town. I don't like you saying 'this is never going to work'.

a few things:
- i'm saying that if pooky is scum, and he voluntarily hammered himself over here, he must not be super worried about the plan working, right? otherwise why help it along. i don't know who the remaining scum are, it's entirely a line of reasoning drawn from the fact that i don't think it's super likely that scum!pooky volunteers to bring himself over here if he thought it was likely to help make 8 ic's or whatever the number is. that would imply to me that there's either too many scum over there to entirely rid your thread of scum, or that's it's unlikely that you'd be able to rid your thread of scum. that doesn't mean that i know *who* the remaining scum are, but rather that i think this is a reasonable conclusion given scum!pooky. like given scum!pooky i can tell this is happening. that doesn't mean i know who or how exactly

- a50, pooky (yesterday), gypyx on some level (who i townread), and zmuffin is rising up in popularity as well.

- hp looks p scum to me, and i've elaborated upon this at length

- i've been saying this isn't going to work since you guys first brought this up like 150 pages ago, it's not like this is something that i just thought up this morning. i think we're putting a disproportionate amount of effort into a high-risk high-reward plan, and i think the chances of the reward actually taking place are very, very slim

Posted: **Tue Dec 22, 2020 2:52 am**

In post 3283, Annie Edison wrote:I agree with dunn that I hate the fearmongering the purple room. I don’t think the dissent over there feels organic.

i'm not entirely sure this is something that is actually, like, happening

~

aside @deacon do you guys still townread annie edison?

Posted: **Tue Dec 22, 2020 2:54 am**

In post 3286, Dunnstral wrote:
But it's not a disproportionate amount of effort. All we have to do is not turnstile in your thread, and then scumhunrt as normal, except we also turnstile a lesser scumread within this thread.

Why is that a problem?

i mean from my pov it's inherently suboptimal, and you're also not going to be turnstiling the people who i think should be turnstiled

Posted: **Tue Dec 22, 2020 2:59 am**

In post 3288, Dunnstral wrote:Which is who?

i mean i have specific names for this, but do we really want me to say them given that i think they're prs? (which is exactly why i want them to come over ...)

Posted: **Tue Dec 22, 2020 3:39 am**

Purple Room 693 is happening.

Posted: **Tue Dec 22, 2020 3:40 am**

In post 4409, skitter30 wrote:aside @deacon do you guys still townread annie edison?

I take it you don't care for my opinion?

Posted: **Tue Dec 22, 2020 3:51 am**

i want cephs opinions

Posted: **Tue Dec 22, 2020 3:51 am**

Elimination Votecount 6.17

PookyTheMagicalBear (4) - superbowl9, GFITAC, Dandelion Wine, Something_Smart, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

midwaybear (3) - Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, midwaybear, Something_Smart, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

skitter30 (1) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

Dandelion Wine (1) - superbowl9, Petapan, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

Deacon Blues (1) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

superbowl9 (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

Petapan (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

GFITAC (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

Something_Smart (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

Firebringer (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

LadyLambdadelta (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

Pisskop (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

(expired on 2021-01-04 12:54:00) remain until day end

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to reach a majority.

Spoiler: Turnstile

Turnstile Votecount 6.17

skitter30 (1) - Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

superbowl9 (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

Petapan (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

GFITAC (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

Deacon Blues (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

Dandelion Wine (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

midwaybear (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

Something_Smart (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

Firebringer (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

LadyLambdadelta (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

Pisskop (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

PookyTheMagicalBear (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

(expired on 2021-01-04 12:54:00) remain until day end

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to reach a majority.

Spoiler: Purple Room

Purple Room Votecount 6.17

superbowl9 (3) -GFITAC, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

Petapan (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

GFITAC (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

Deacon Blues (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

Dandelion Wine (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

midwaybear (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

Something_Smart (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

Firebringer (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

LadyLambdadelta (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

skitter30 (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

Pisskop (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

PookyTheMagicalBear (0) - superbowl9, Petapan, GFITAC, Deacon Blues, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Something_Smart, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, skitter30, PookyTheMagicalBear, Pisskop

(expired on 2021-01-04 12:54:00) remain until day end

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to reach a majority.

Posted: **Tue Dec 22, 2020 3:53 am**

cakez i dont envy u if ur keeping track of votes manually for 6 different things accross 2 threads. sounds like mod hell

Posted: **Tue Dec 22, 2020 4:03 am**

In post 4413, Dandelion Wine wrote:
In post 4409, skitter30 wrote:aside @deacon do you guys still townread annie edison?
I take it you don't care for my opinion?

sure, i'd be interested as well!

Posted: **Tue Dec 22, 2020 4:05 am**

In post 3292, Gypyx wrote:
and also skitter, about your points on pooky, the thing is that, imagine pooky refuses to get turnstiled, what do you think happens? We turnstile someone else and exe him, so i doubt that this means much on our thread, assuming no WIFOM, maybe that's a little bit more likely for pooky!scum while i think abou it

i think actively forcing through the turnstile via self-hammer is on a different level than 'oh if he stays here we'll lim him' wrt removing people from your thread in that i'm not sure limming him over there is as simple/cut and dry as you're making it out to be

Posted: **Tue Dec 22, 2020 4:06 am**

In post 4416, Firebringer wrote:cakez i dont envy u if ur keeping track of votes manually for 6 different things accross 2 threads. sounds like mod hell

i agree, and sircakez is doing a fantastic job

Posted: **Tue Dec 22, 2020 4:09 am**

In post 4417, skitter30 wrote:
In post 4413, Dandelion Wine wrote:
In post 4409, skitter30 wrote:aside @deacon do you guys still townread annie edison?
I take it you don't care for my opinion?
sure, i'd be interested as well!

Wavering on you somewhat causes wavering on him somewhat. But I'm still at about 90%.

Posted: **Tue Dec 22, 2020 4:13 am**

I mean from my pov if i'm right abt the plan over there failing, they're a p decent candidate for why

Posted: **Tue Dec 22, 2020 6:26 am**

In post 4414, Firebringer wrote:i want cephs opinions

on annie? i still think they're town, but i have to catch up on the other thread
-ceph

Posted: **Tue Dec 22, 2020 6:29 am**

theoretically, even if the plan to clear one timeline of scum fails (very likely imo), we still learn things from it. i think it's fine.

1/10

Posted: **Tue Dec 22, 2020 6:50 am**

In post 3998, Dandelion Wine wrote:Notsci, brakes, NOW

This is a bork-query: is there a reason not to have some transparency about this?

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