In post 4432, PlusJOYED wrote:for math, putting pressure on your partner so you aren't null on each other and it coupd make sense for town!shelly to do so you could use that as a defense.
You didn't really need to worry end of day 3 since freaking bob is running around with a "hang me im scum" sign on his back;
it probably wouldn't pick up so pressuring ndmath is safe
In post 4198, shellyc wrote:joyed instead of seeing scum!anybody can you give me a lynch order so we have have some Fun Discussion and I can release my theory on the alignments of plus and ydrasse
here's mine: (least to most)
Shelly
Andres
Menalque
Ydrasse
Math
Bob
Joyed
Osuka
mine is probably
andres
mena
joyed
Shelly
ydrasse
osuka
math
bob
like all these thought gaps and non logical trajectories, look super duper bad.
i did before now im unsure, my solve shit has been messed up since all my reads have been wrong (iv, teacher, kerset, even suade a lil)
while I have no scumgames here shelly, i think you underestimate my scumgame and don't realize how fucking awful i am as town
In post 4178, shellyc wrote:ok then tell me
1) read on bob
2) read on ydrasse
with explanations attached
bob is probably scum, he's been playing kind of weird this game and I now realize that it makes the most sense for scum!bob to pocket me here so he doesn't die
ydrasse was really sus earlier and today I think has been sus. I'm pretty much null on ydrasse, leaning sort of scum
i've come around to a town!osuka possibility
this is what's bothering me rn plus: you talk about how bob was incredibly obvscum and like begging to be guillo'd yesterday but yesterday you were like leaning scum there but not as certain about that/in your reads, which made sense to me
but now that bob has flipped town he was like super obvscummy which absolves you of blame. like don't get me wrong I fucked up there too but it feels a lot like you're trying to shift the narrative here around your progression here
and the OTHER thing is that yesterday it was bob -> shelly/math -> osuka -> Ydrasse
but now it's shelly -> ydrasse -> math/osuka (idk what order you'd put the last two in)
like you mentioned yesterday, you've been scumleaning math throughout the game, but at each stage you've avoided putting meaningful pressure on him or voting for him, including shifting your reads to make sure he's towards the scummy end but never quite the person you wanna vote for on any given day. what changed to make shelly your strong scum read today instead of tossing it up between shelly/math (what was implied by your reads yesterday) and to move osuka and Ydrasse down
i was uncertain until they made a big scumslip day 3
Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 3:13 am
by shellyc
what’s the progression on me
4205 states me as most town out of the PoE now, and now im apparently your biggest SR?
Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 3:53 am
by PlusJOYED
In post 4477, shellyc wrote:what’s the progression on me
4205 states me as most town out of the PoE now, and now im apparently your biggest SR?
i confused myself with the venge stuff
I think you/Ydrasse makes the most sense
i think the interaction with Ydrasse has strong potential for SvS
heres where im at.
andres is very likely town: if scum was informed of a cop, then I could see Andresvmb claiming miller checker. However, there's a hole in this idea. Teacher, the loyal informed cop, investigated at least 1 person. From what I understand about millers and loyal, teacher would get a scum result from a miller, a town result from town, and the action would fail if they targeted scum. The play that makes the most sense if I was teacher and there was a day 1 miller claim would be to investigate Andresvmb, so they get a confirmed result. If teacher visited the Andresvmb and got a fail result, they'd find a scum and would make sense to reveal it day 2, but they didn't.
Mena is also very likely town, my main reasoning being that they defended IV super hard when the day 1 elim was right there. That doesn't make sense for scum imo, that"s the biggest thing. If you are scum mena, then bravo, you deserve this W.
NdMath I think is town because of all the wagon shenanigans that have happened and derailed. This leads me to think there's an active scum pulling strings that NDMath couldn't do as inactive.
Osuka I think is town because I don't see scum!osuka playing like this. I think his partner wouldn't allow it tbh and it fits with his meta. The fact that a lot of slots want him dead for info makes me think that one of them is trying to set up a chainelim day 3 of {me, osuka, bob} in any order. There is a small chance im deep pocketed but i think that's unlikely
Shelly is scummy because of her vote changing so much and consistently being on all the wagons without starting a wagon, and being strangely untouchable. They are the one trying the hardest to set up chainelims of me, bob, and osuka from what I can tell. That and PoE
Ydrasse I need to reread but I think they are capable of this as scum. Mainly PoE for me at this point.
Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 4:12 am
by shellyc
In post 4478, PlusJOYED wrote:i think the interaction with Ydrasse has strong potential for SvS
can you like, explain WHY for once instead of saying BS artificial reads
and I'd like andres to talk to me about osuka/plus/math and whether osuka is necessarily the best guillo today, particularly with reference to my earlier points on (1) plus's moving read on math throughout the game and (2) math's big "here's why I can't be scum with plus" post out of the blue at a time when there wasn't really any pressure there anyway
and I'd like andres to talk to me about osuka/plus/math and whether osuka is necessarily the best guillo today, particularly with reference to my earlier points on (1) plus's moving read on math throughout the game and (2) math's big "here's why I can't be scum with plus" post out of the blue at a time when there wasn't really any pressure there anyway
There is no world where I’m compromising on an Osuka execution.
Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:06 am
by Andresvmb
I am simply not convinced that any other execution is as likely to result in Scum.
Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:07 am
by Andresvmb
Osuka has the worst takes even after flips from players he should trust. Almost every single person that has flipped has called me Town. Unless I’m a complete idiot, I would have kept some of those players in the hopes of surviving longer as Scum.
Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:11 am
by Andresvmb
Like I don’t ever have to even begin to question Ydrasse, or push Bob. And what, I had Teacher and Saudade pocketed then? Just, no. That take is horrendous.
Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:12 am
by Andresvmb
And does anybody think that my interactions with Kerset or my push against Kerset was SvS? It’s ridiculous.
Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:13 am
by Andresvmb
Like enough entertaining this sort of nonsense. Kerset had a horrible take of my slot and I thought that was revealing. I think Osuka’s positioning has also been quite revealing.
Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:14 am
by Ydrasse
okay, i'm here in real time with a faulty memory of this game.
with 9 votes in play, it took 5 to make a decision. day 3 ended.
without looking at past content and staring at these little votes, i feel not so great about ndmath; on the d1 wagon to elim iv, off wagon d2 to vote bob and then... off wagon d3, again, but this time voting with bob on osuka?
osuka has ended two days now with a vote parked on shellyc, the only exception being d1 where he voted iv. i'm not reading back to see the circumstances of the vote itself but it i don't really know why osuka wouldn't want to be on the kerset wagon if they were teamed? i'll have to Reread for this one but i guess it could be tunneling in on shelly..??
if shelly is scum, she's been committed to bussing for a bit now given that she ended d1 with a vote still on kerset. i don't feel bad about that though, particularly? like off the top of my head it doesn't really feel like a red flag should be waving off of this.
plus has been on every major wagon by the end of the day, earlier in the case of the two town wagons than the kerset one (but also i think d2 went by pretty fast so it might've been a fact of not being around to vote until then? i'll check on this).
menalque + andres have always ended up voting the same person at eod, but i don't feel bad about this given that d1 was off iv, d2 was on scum and d3 was on bob. it doesn't seem like there's a ~scummy agenda~ or whatever, them teaming, by the pattern they're voting with and it reflects the fact that they've been pretty consistent in their trs on each other.
In post 2423, Andresvmb wrote:@Menalque, @Ydrasse I want us to agree on a course of action. Menalque is obviously on Osuka, but I don’t know that this one gets through, and I do have a Negative Lena there, but I also want to re-read.
@IV I want some thoughts on what you would be willing to vote here. I see you very scattered and defensive (particularly after your “slip”, but I have been liking your takes so I want to see more of them). I know you said you wouldn’t post much until Wednesday, and you needed a break - all I want is a small list of players you would vote. That’s all.
I have a good sense of what some other players want to do. Saudade is almost death tunneling Kerset (but would also clearly vote for Osuka), and Bob is on Teacher (and defending Kerset given their Claim). Kerset is tunneling Teacher almost, after somewhat tunneling me. plusJOYED’s 2325 makes it pretty clear where they would vote, which also includes Teacher.
@Kerset, how do you feel about my slot now?
@Tayl0r where are you? You seem to be vibing with plus after SR’ing there, which I don’t have any major objections to actually I’m still trying to figure out what to make of plus. Your vote is still on IV, and you appear to also be willing to vote Osuka. How do you feel about Teacher/Bob?
Nobody has taken me up on answering whether crumbing Doctor makes sense. Can somebody seriously comment on that?
correct on where I would vote.
Iv, teacher, or math is prefered for me, with preference for IV
I might be convinced for a saudade or bob wagon
won't vote anyone else
i'm going through things right now to see plus's votes and this is uh, 4/5 town preference. maybe 5 if ndmath isn't scum but i have Doubts (tm) about that right now. Much to think about.
Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:37 am
by Ydrasse
In post 2911, PlusJOYED wrote:God dammit you guys are playing right into IVs hands. Mena vs Osuka im pretty sure is TvT
peddit: agree on taylor tbh
In post 2912, PlusJOYED wrote:I don't think I can stop an Osuka elim today, just please go after IV when Osuka flips green, cause if mena is the d2 elim I think town is boned
plus has been on every major wagon by the end of the day, earlier in the case of the two town wagons than the kerset one (but also i think d2 went by pretty fast so it might've been a fact of not being around to vote until then? i'll check on this).
i initially thought kerset was town day 2 until he made a post that really threw me off
In post 3512, Kerset wrote:cool saudade is dead and now i get instant L-2
You don't know how to make insightful NKA. We are talking here about saud, he is careless gamethrower. His existence was harmful to town and viging him would be worth it regardless of his alignment, so healing him was out of question. This guy misleads town to lynch his target regardless of circumstances to satisfy his ego. Hardclaimming bullshits is just one of throws typical for his behavior, he thinks that saying nonsense as town is 200IQ play, because thanks to his reputation he can get away with anything, once he rolls scum.
The most important information we got is scum lack of knowledge. Scum didn't know about his nature and took him seriously, which points at people with 2020 join date. Especially shelly, which periodically appears as more naive then she normally should be.
???
Well shit, I don't see how this post could come from anywhere but scum even with my confbias. Guess I was wrong on you kerset UNVOTE: VOTE: kerset
plus, can you explain why (in the moment, before this flipped) you thought this post could only come from scum?
Posted: Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:45 am
by PlusJOYED
ydrasse being relatively passive and going after LHF (me) especially after omgus, along with recent meta behavior I can now talk about (silent star 2) makes me think that the solve is either shelly/ydrasse or I'm probably never going to get it right. I think shelly swapping onto ydrasse for a bit was all scum theater, since it happened at a convenient time to make Ydrasse appear more towny to throw people off. This also lines up with saudes prediction.