With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.
Day 2 deadline will hit in: (expired on 2014-09-13 13:15:56).
I received a couple of V/LA notices during N1.
shaddowez is V/LA until the 2nd.
tman2nd is V/LA until the 2nd.
Pagetop!
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 6:18 am
by Malakittens
Well, that kill makes me think scum is on the wagon.
I can logic that post game if needed.
VOTE: chaos
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 8:03 am
by implosion
Well, that kill makes me think scum is on the wagon.
:s
this does not seem like a thing to me that can have any basis in good logic whatsoever. Granted that doesn't mean the conclusion is false.
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 8:13 am
by implosion
chaos's jump on to the wagon feels somewhat meh, but I thought his most recent post felt town.
I want to explore this a bit.
VOTE: Elias
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 8:17 am
by implosion
Actually I lied. Mala if you want to look for scum on the wagon, let's look here first...
Unvote
VOTE: shaddowez
Reasoning coming after I take a shower.
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 2:13 pm
by phokdapolees
↑implosion wrote:Actually I lied. Mala if you want to look for scum on the wagon, let's look here first...
Unvote
VOTE: shaddowez
Reasoning coming after I take a shower.
This is quite the long shower
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 2:38 pm
by implosion
i didn't say immediately after i took a shower. I also kind of expected there to be more posts and didn't really feel like quadrupleposting especially when only one other person had posted so far.
Anyway, here's a giant quote wall looking at shaddowez's interactions towards Flames/neil:
Spoiler:
↑shaddowez wrote:I don't like the fact that Flames had such a large wagon so quick in RVS. I know D1 gives a lot of time for messing around, but I would not be surprised at all if there was at least one scum on that wagon already.
This can be looked at as possibly defending-without-really-defending, or trying to deter anything that looks like an accusation of Flames without really looking like deterring it.
- you have any other reads? I'm not a fan of your sudden near-180 immediately after I post about what looks like buddying/White Knighting.
This looks like possible coaching. It reads like scum telling scum "hey, you're being scummy, stop that."
↑shaddowez wrote:I believe I am comfortable putting Flames at L-1 though. He has provided very little content, is using weak arguments as his cases and/or is voting with the current wagon (obviously not himself, I mean Rack. Seeing as I don't have any other strong supicions right now,
VOTE: Flames
Lots of qualification on the vote: he's only voting him because he doesn't have any strong suspicions, so it's easy to get out, but he still wants to be on the wagon. The vote looks like scum begrudgingly deciding to bus when they realize Flames is probably going down rather than town looking for scum. "Seeing as I don't have any other strong suspicions right now" also doesn't mesh very well with voting him to L-1, but those make plenty of sense together if it's a bus.
↑Elias_the_thief wrote:UNVOTE:
Shadow, how is this situation at all different than the wagon on Rack?
Mainly, post count. The wagon on Rack started day 1 with an RVS vote, and grew in just a few days. In that timeframe, and the time since the Flame wagon started, everyone has been posting, and there's been more content to scrutinize.
What does concern me about the new wagon is the fact that pretty much all the votes (including mine) are from people that just hopped from one wagon to the other.
So he's concerned about the wagon, and about the people on it, yet is still happy with putting it at L-1. There's also the classic thing here of throwing a general accusation at a bandwagon rather than any individual people on it - if it's concerning that all of these votes are from wagonhoppers, then town-shaddowez should elaborate on what people are scummy because of it, and why those people are less deserving of a vote than Flames. He's also continuing to give himself an out with respect to the wagon.
↑shaddowez wrote:I'm still waiting to hear more from Neil before putting my vote back on him. He showed up, got mad, then disappeared again which isn't looking too good.
Note that he unvoted because of the replacement. Here he gives more tentative support for lynching the slot without really committing.
↑shaddowez wrote:I really wanted to hear more from Neil before voting, but I'm not liking his disappearing act. I realize that he hasn't been onsite posting anywhere else, but he's also just over 12 hours away from a prod. I don't like the couple of posts that he's made, and while I wouldn't outright pin them as scummy, they do absolutely nothing to up my read from the slot.
VOTE: Neil
That's L-1. I will unvote if Neil starts posting again and I get around to it before somebody hammers.
This also looks like it could be scum trying to get on the wagon before it reaches the lynch because they see it as inevitable.
↑shaddowez wrote:I don't like the claim. I've gone through Flames' ISO and saw no crumbs whatsoever...he knew he was in deep, and while it was RVS he did manage to pick up 4 votes in no time. If he had a PR, one would think that would be a good time to start crumbing. It also reads as a stall tactic - he started posting info, disappeared until what should have been after a prod, claims and says he has to disappear again.
I would say the saying he ISO'd flames is a favor in point of shaddowez town, but meh. Similar comments apply to this as to everything else.
tl;dr: shaddowez's interactions towards the Flames slot, on the whole, feel like scum who doesn't want to push the slot, but wants to get towncred for being on the wagon.
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 4:07 pm
by Oso
↑implosion wrote:i didn't say immediately after i took a shower. I also kind of expected there to be more posts and didn't really feel like quadrupleposting especially when only one other person had posted so far.
Well, it is a long weekend.
Mala's thrust at Chaos, don't really see that going anywhere. At least not from where I'm standing. I personally don't have any real strong feelings on Chaos either way except to say he is slightly above the dead neutral line for me.
Implosion makes some points I hadn't considered on Shadow. He, like Chaos is pretty much almost neutral to me. Have to look more to see if Implosion might actually be on to something. I have my own thoughts about the Neil wagon but they can wait until until the two prior votes clear up a bit and I have had a chance to look at what Implosion is saying about Shadow there.
One thing that jumped out in that quote wall that I didn't catch yesterday
I've gone through Flames' ISO and saw no crumbs whatsoever
...he knew he was in deep, and while it was RVS he did manage to pick up 4 votes in no time. If he had a PR, one would think that would be a good time to start crumbing. It also reads as a stall tactic - he started posting info, disappeared until what should have been after a prod, claims and says he has to disappear again.
The underlined bold part, that sounds, not really forced, but not really honest either or really valid. Hard to explain. I'll revisit Shadowez tomorrow and see if I can agree with what you posted.
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 4:21 pm
by implosion
Oso wrote:The underlined bold part, that sounds, not really forced, but not really honest either or really valid. Hard to explain. I'll revisit Shadowez tomorrow and see if I can agree with what you posted.
Yeah. I mentioned it in the miniwall. It's definitely the biggest thing that gives me pause on shadow. The main reason I'm trying not to let it give me too much pause is that it's a kind of statement that I think I often wind up getting false townreads from - singular statements that make me think "scum-x wouldn't say this."
Also let it be known that I am in no way super confident on shadow-scum.
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 4:31 pm
by implosion
Also worth mentioning, I go back to college tomorrow. This will likely mean a drop in my activity.
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 5:41 pm
by Malakittens
tbh if there's scum off the wagon i'm thinking Elis.
I just looked at some weird wagon placement Day 1.
I can deff see the shadow thing although I'm not really set on it.
I rather have a chaos lynch preferably.
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 8:22 pm
by AGar
VOTE: Oso
I wanna start the killing and the stabbings here.
His entrance with Neil at L-1 screamed "I don't want to be actually involved in this mess!" His echoing of Tammy's statement to not CC reeked of confidence in picking up a cop tell. (Hey look, Tammy's dead). Riabi was sketch and kinda seemed dodgy.
I'll read implosion and Mala's stuff tomorrow evening, but right now I wanna poke and prod this for a bit because it seems like fruit is here.
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 8:43 pm
by Aneninen
As it has been pointed out by Implosion, the Flames/Neil wagon is very interesting.
About this topic...
Spoiler:
It started to gain steam around 229 (Agar, Implosion, Aneninen), by 275 it consisted of (Agar, Implosion, Aneninen, Tman, Elias).
Elias unvoted in 278, right after Shadowez had joined in 276. Look at this:
"Shadow, how is this situation at all different than the wagon on Rack?"
(Elias, 278). I strongly think that the Flames-wagon was
greatly
different than the Rack-wagon. Shadowez pointed out the same thing in 280:
"Mainly, post count. The wagon on Rack started day 1 with an RVS vote, and grew in just a few days. In that timeframe, and the time since the Flame wagon started, everyone has been posting, and there's been more content to scrutinize."
. (Though, there is a small error in his logic: The Flames wagon was started with a RVS vote too, Agar never changed his vote on Day1.)
Before the replacement, the wagon was (Agar, Implosion, Aneninen, Tman, Shadowez), 300. Tammy joined for a short while, Implosion and Shadowez jumped off afterwards.
Mind the fact, that at this point of the game Neil had 3 (and 4, after Phok) votes, while there were two 2-votes-wagons, Rack and Tman. Phokdapolees joined and Implosion rejoined, Chaos put Neil at L–1 afterwards. Anyone of them, especially Phok could have jumped on any of the counterwagons. Phok had never been on this wagon before, so I think that's a very strong towntell. Implosion's a bit strange, but the post 333
"The very first thing I find when I look at neil's meta leads me to believe he has a history of fakeclaiming as town."
seems to be genuine. (Or at least, I did a similar thing later, on Day1). A moderately strong towntell on him. Chaos' vote would have been an unnecessarry bussing if he were scum. Though, it's possible that he jumped on because he felt that Neil would go down. Still, a mild towntell.
And who jumped off the wagon in 344? Tman!
Shadowez returned to the wagon in 377, L–1 again. Neil claimed Cop in 386, Aneninen and Implosion jumped off next. Both of them are returned later (considering the claim a fake one). The other 4 names – AGar, Phok, Chaos, Shadowez – could have left the wagon after the claim. Another small townread on all of them.
Tman said in 424
"I'm going to hop back onto the wagon if nobody has any objections to him being at L-1."
– but, at that point his vote would have been the L–1! (He even added in 428 that he would wait for AGar and Shadowez – why?)
MalaKitty's hammer is a null in my eyes: if it hadn't been for her, someone else would have hammered Neil.
Another notice: considering the living players and excluding the RVS, Rack, and Oso weren't ever on the Neil-wagon. Maybe we should examine them later.
Summary.
Having examined the votes I got the following conclusions.
Town: AGar, Phokdapolees
Lean town: Chaos, Implosion + MalaKitty (the latter one is a general read, it has nothing to do with the votes)
...Huh? (can't sort them, the list shows a town -> scum order, though it's mostly intuitional):
Shadowez – He could have been lean town on this list but Implosion's wall about the topic made me think. Maybe my reads are wrong.
Oso – More information is needed.
Rack – Away from the Flames/Neil wagon but, Flames was on his wagon for a long time. Rack's posts don't give me town vibes.
Elias – Away from the wagon, weak defense attemps on that slot eg. 278, 360, weak explanation for that in 431 but, in general his posts are not particularly scummy.
Scum: Tman
VOTE: Tman2nd
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 8:45 pm
by implosion
Alright. Well.
Last time AGar had a scumread that I found myself agreeing with, we lynched scum. Riabi was a lingering scumread. And those are some good points from AGar. The possibility of Tammy having been killed for coptelling and that being Oso leaving a trail is a little bit tantalizing.
Unvote
VOTE: Oso
(If a shadow wagon were to materialize I would be in, but this seems like a more useful place to vote)
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 8:47 pm
by implosion
AGar, Malakittens, Aneninen, phokdapolees, rack, myself. This is the group that I don't have much interest in looking into today. I have no interest whatsoever in looking at AGar or Malakittens. Then comes rack, then Anen and phok.
Oso, chaoslord54, shaddowez, tman2nd, Elias_the_thief. At this point, I want to say 2/5 scum.
This post will probably serve mostly as a reminder to the me of a few days from now in the event that I get caught up in real world shenanigans and forget where I was.
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 8:49 pm
by Malakittens
Want to know what sucks. I'm going to be locked out of my account tomorrow because I'm going to forget my 'new' password. ._. (stupid league game.)
Implosion I kinda took time to think about that chaos post. It doesn't come off town to me. it comes off scumish to null. Obv scum do not want to defend neil when he's lying about his claim as a mafia goon. Bussing is opt play which is exactly what chaos did in that scenario.
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 8:55 pm
by Aneninen
You both should examine Tman. In return, I'll examine Oso.
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 9:24 pm
by chaoslord54
Hey guys I will post a longer post in the morning but I want to mention this early on. My strongest town read is now malakittens. Ill post the rest of my reads tomorrow and will also explain my reasoning as well.
His entrance with Neil at L-1 screamed "I don't want to be actually involved in this mess!" His echoing of Tammy's statement to not CC reeked of confidence in picking up a cop tell. (Hey look, Tammy's dead). Riabi was sketch and kinda seemed dodgy.
I'll read implosion and Mala's stuff tomorrow evening, but right now I wanna poke and prod this for a bit because it seems like fruit is here.
Not at all. My subsequent posts after Neil did answer the L-1 shows that I had no problem getting involved. I also had a perfect opportunity to start muddying the waters and attempt to divert his wagon if I had wanted to, before his claim. I was a brand new replacement so I could have easily posted a couple or three quote walls and found something to try and focus attention away from Neil or at least give the thread a second viable target and I don't think anyone would have really assigned an alignment to that. Replacements do that often enough.
And no, don't really want to get into Mafia Theory but yeah, unavoidable here with that thinking. Day 1, Cop claim comes out, Player A is the cop. Don't CC. Even if you die during the night, we have the dead list to give us your counter-claim. I felt that important enough to say regardless of how many other times folks had said it especially since Aneninen posted this derpy nugget (The bold, underlined part).
@Everyone: if you are counterclaiming Neil, DO IT in your very next post!
If there is no counterclaim, we should assume that Neil's claim is real and disband his wagon. (After all, if his claim is fake we'll find that out soon.) If you've posted anything without counterclaiming start posting your other scumreads as soon as you can.
UNVOTE: – I'm willing to revote him if anyone counterclaims but now I'm scared of a derphammer on Neil.
God, rack. You're just such a beacon of usefulness.
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2014 2:39 pm
by Malakittens
That I was going to look at tman. I didn't like him Day 1 anyways so probably wouldn't mind lynching him~
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2014 5:17 pm
by Oso
@Implosion.
It is later in the day than I planned on getting around to it, but here is what I take away from Shadowez in general and in regards to the Neil wagon in particular.
Pre-Niel's claim, I'm leaning that he is unsure town. At least his play is no more scummy than I have seen from many players, myself included, in many other games. Comes across to me a fairly normal D1 townie play.
mainly because of the not finding any crumbs thing. I also thought there might be an attempt at a diversion there, onto Aneninen, except, that is a damn good point he makes. It could still be a diversion onto a townie that chose a stupendously bad moment to change his vote and he is is setting up a mis-lynch for after a Neil scum flip.
But at this point it is fairly obvious, to me at least, Neil is going down. Folks are waiting for the final pre-claim vote on Neil (Agar) to show up and give his thoughts but the conclusion is inevitable, pretty much no matter what Agar says about the claim the lynch is going through, too many of the non voting players have expressed the willingness to vote/hammer Neil.
The point to this, I think he is still scumhunting. Unless something major happens today to change my thoughts, I have no interest in pursuing a Shadowez wagon and/or lynch today.