Mafiascum.net

In post 211, Sickofit1138 wrote:yes. if i get NKed... i told you so. i recomend a long look at vandit if sad flips town.

I don't like this...
Although I believe vandit was the correct lynch the next day (someone remind me to ask vandit why the HELL they hammered sad), the "i told you so" has this sort of...confident air that I don't like.
Furthermore, even though yeah IMO vandit was being pretty dang rude, i'd like to mention sick was a fervent supporter in pushing vandit over the edge.
Also, considering I have apparently (and gladly) been newb obvtown, I'm baffled by my severe lack of death. Since scum seem to not have had a rb they had no reason to choose the "less preferable lynch" on night one, leading to fear factor logic. How they found fox as cop by day 2 seems to come from a more experienced player (need backup on this logic), and since my only strong townread day 1 was rask, plus the fact the fox warned to keep an eye out for rask...
Output=Sick+Rask goon X goon scumteam

PEdit-IDK XD I just went since apparently you people go to bed at 1-2am my time
Also yeah I know, I know...no quickvote
+VT points to you

In post 269, Sickofit1138 wrote:Honestly Fox and Vandit feels like the only viable scum team to me.
Xvandit is 98% scum for me and that makes fox that as well and here's why:

Vandit/beeboy I don't think Vandit would go for an early bus it's not natutral as a newbie.
Vandit/Zyf not scum/scum interractions and Zyf is town lean anyways.
Vandit/DVD? Too inactive I think to be scum.
Vandit/fox a thousand yesses there play is the same and they are moving together which furthermore says scum team for me.

A lot of things off on this post
1-presenting me as possible scum with vandit, stating me as townlean, yet placing me as their first town read less than 2 hours prior.
2-Echoing my argument towards a fox-vandit scumteam using no solid evidence and only generalized thoughts on an opinion I already made pretty clear (as opposed to just I agree with Zyf, this seems most plausible)
3-Mentions beeboy then immediately considers it foolish; note how it's placed first as though the most confident one, to draw attention. Could be protecting beeboy.
4-The DVDs argument contradicts Vandit's inactivity logic entirely. Like, the #1 vandit shouldbe pushing based on prior behavior would have dvds.

but wait there's more

In post 247, Sickofit1138 wrote:

@Zyf

I'm good with either. They are pretty equally scummy.
Vandit probably easiest lynch.

I DO NOT want to rush this vote!
I want to take the FULL ALLOTTED TIME.

I would maybe wait, If I was cop , till you've found a scum. If I just found an inno I would keep it for now.
The only other reason I would claim was if I was put at L-1, and that goes for any PR

In post 282, Sickofit1138 wrote:

In post 275, Zyf wrote:Sick I don't think you ever actually voted vandit so they're technically at L-3

It's L-2. It takes 4 to lynch.

On another note I'm willing to speed lynch this. I am almost certain he is maf and I really do not want to play with this person.

In post 337, Sickofit1138 wrote:I can agree with fOX here actually. Since Vandits toxic attitude is mostly absent right now I have no problem taking our full allotted time

Contradictions, anyone?

In post 254, Sickofit1138 wrote:

In post 252, Vandit24 wrote:@Zyf if you will notice because i noticed that if you read this whole thread (since start) when people actually do random voting and stuff for fun.. sick was the only guy who voted for sad and till the end when we all were saying he is innocent etc (in the middle, not towards the end) still he didnt unvote him. And again didnt unvote sad till he was lynched. I voted for him for a reason,but he.. just no reason.

I never felt moved to take it off. At least I didn't change my vote six times and *ahem* quick hammer somebody.

Looking back, this is one helluva weak argument for not bekng scum

In post 404, Sickofit1138 wrote:Hmm... Why are you unvoting?
I'm not seeing any reason too.

The only logical reason Ivan think of is if you we're scum and you knew you were lynching a townie ad didn't want to be on the examin-wagin.

What's your explanation?

In post 422, Sickofit1138 wrote:Vandit is still so ignorant that he is still saying "if I get lynched"

Next lynch is FOX

>next lynch is fox
>Vandit isn't flipping town
>vandit flips town
>fox is the NK
>fox flips as cop

Hm. My, what confidence and accuracy you have, sick.
What made you so confident that Vandit wouldn't flip town after they got majority voted, sick?

Notes/thoughts:

1) So let's look at the updated VCA:



Without a red flip it's a lot harder to read the board, but generic "one on, one off" type distancing voting would suggest one of sick and zyf and one of beeboy and rask (day one), and one of beeboy and sick and one of zyf and rask (day two). OTOH, basically the whole group was ok with a vandit lynch on day 2, and vandit's quick-hammer on day 1 was pretty unusual in and of itself, so I'm not sure how well it holds up. But I'd suppose sick-rask and bee-zyf would be relatively more likely combinations than most others.


2) Dead reads:
Sad: not really

Ranger (subbing in new/final player names)

In post 91, Ranger wrote:So given that, my reads currently look something like this:
{beeboy}
{Zyf}
{Raskolnikov, mhsmith0}
{F-oh-ex, Sickofit}
{vandit}
{sad}
Though Raskolnikov may deserve to be a tier higher.

Vandit:

In post 416, Vandit24 wrote:If i get lynched ..please vote sick..i explained everything above..but whatever..he just started reacting too much all of sudden after i started getting pointed ..as if i did something to him

(he also suspected beeboy, though I'm not sure how legitimate it is to suspect someone due to them being logged on and not in this particular game)

FOX:

In post 425, F-oh-ex wrote:Since we're doing this in case of NK:
I'm pretty convinced Zyf is Town, don't let me down.
Sick/beeboy would be where I'd look closer.
Rask... he seems good enough to manipulate us all into townreading him.

In post 427, F-oh-ex wrote:I don't think anyone buddied Vandit. (inb4 that I buddied him)
It will be 1v4 so with two lynches my money'd be on winning at LyLo. I'd lynch between Sick/beeboy, while keeping an eye on Rask.
I guess I wouldn't like to see mhsmith lynched.

In post 429, F-oh-ex wrote:Same, sick is the stronger scum read out of them two.

If I had to guess, I'd say that FOX cop-peeked Zyf. It's possible he cop-peeked me, but it seemed like Zyf was the stronger read. Of course, it's also possible that FOX simply cop-peeked Ranger and this was just his actual read of the board, but between this and the overall town read of Zyf, I'm pretty inclined to think that Zyf is very likely town unless I see something really important that I missed.

Probably sick would be the strongest wolf read based on dead townies.

Overall: Right now I'm thinking:

Towniest
Zyf ( cop peek)
Beeboy
Rask
Sick
Wolfiest

I want to re-read the whole game thread to refine this (the difference between Ranger's and FOX's beeboy reads is substantial, and I'm a little worried that I'm over-valuing the VCA as functions of the zyf/sick reads when splitting beeboy and rask) but that's my current gut. I'm definitely not ready to vote, but I'm leaning Sick, somewhat likelier as rask's buddy than beeboy's.

mh-
1) Fox states that I appear town, while stating that you probably shouldn't be lynched. I don't know if they cop peeked either of us, but regardless, considering ranger's and fox's thoughts, I think we can confidently get this:
Town: You, me (mh, Zyf)
Scum: Sick

At this point, I think we've gone pretty thoroughly through history, but we need Rask to post as they've been V/LA for a while. At this point it's hard to determine which one is town.

Okay I'm thinking its probably beeboy/sick, with a chance of beeboy/mhsmith.
I really doubt sick/mhsmith makes either the ranger NK, or PR hunts cop. Up until now I was reading beeboy as the PR with how reserved he was but his play having been so uninvolved from VT is very off.
The thing is the way sick played to setup a fox mislynch doesn't make sense with the fox NK UNLESS beeboy comes in with the PR read at night.
Which in retrospect he probably got from the nk spec and PR talk/fishing he had with f-oh-x earlier; I thought it made sense for beeboy to question the night kill as a PR (especially protective) himself but now it's almost out of nowhere. There's also the 299 point that beeboy benefited from bringing up rangers townread on him if it wasn't originally just a fishing plan.

I still refuse to accept that vandit was town here.

I don't understand vandit at all either what the actual fuck was that play

So, it appears that someone is bussing sick or sick is inno and is getting toasted because it's a 4v1 rn
Rask, I'm assuming you claim VT, can you confirm or deny that?

In post 343, beeboy wrote:Pro tip never speculate who is a PR in the public game thread

I'm sorry rask but where was the PR fishing? I don't see it

I didn't see it somehow before but beeboy sick both had literally 0 scumhunting all game. Beeboy's been getting through on gut reads onto him mostly from RVS but tbh didn't ever follow up his scumread on me (while vandit was on the table) until now. Sick for the most part posted readlists and antagonised the people who were likely to be lynched; the only thing against the grain/different from town consensus here I'd say was the unexplained scumread on beeboy which actually makes sense from as an association since it didn't go anywhere.

The problem is there's still a few towny feeling posts like 248 and 253 as well as his play around vandit almost being too bold and reckless for someone who knew he would flip town so I'm not as convinced as you guys are.

Mhsmith makes a ton of analysis and has appeared very pro-town here but there's actually not the most substance and commitment beyond the IIoA. The vc/game spec is generally good but he never really went beyond vandit to talk about or judge the rest of the players, and mhsmith is experienced as well and the way in which he talked mostly about technical details (which scum can easily do) I'm not comfortable with him either. 455 is pretty low commitment as well, but disagreeing with the cop inno being on him is genuinely good though, ftr I too think it was probably zyf given f-oh-x was scumreading that and mhs was an empty slot at the time.

Unfortunately all three of them having very little interactions with each other makes this difficult, but purely from the NKs I think sick or mhsmith is with beeboy either way. As a sick partner beeboy's rask/sick makes more sense than mhsmith's sick/rask since in beeboys case the mislynch has priority whereas if mhsmith was with sick and bussed he'd have to do beeboy/me/him lylo which he should fear even if we go into it scumreading each other.

In post 459, Zyf wrote:

In post 343, beeboy wrote:Pro tip never speculate who is a PR in the public game thread

I'm sorry rask but where was the PR fishing? I don't see it

Basically it's what f-oh-x said where beeboy speculating in 292 was potentially trying to get comments speculating on what protectives actually did do.
Generally if you get everyone's speculation about what a PR would do (especially protectives, but cop is interested in what protectives do as well) people can give themselves away in how they talk about it differently and approach the subject in a different way. Which probably got f-oh-x killled by beeboy, though technically it could have been just a read kill and I'm reading too much into this.. I hate lylo.

Beeboy if you're town can you start towntelling?

pedit: VT

So the main overlap appears to be sick, as far as i can tell.

Mh, I'm a bit concerned by the fact that you never claimed. It's a bit off.

In post 463, Zyf wrote:So the main overlap appears to be sick, as far as i can tell.

Actually the difference between first/second read here is HUGE given there won't be follow-up if it goes through.

Beeboy's me/sick has the sick almost irrelevant because if I get lynched here there is no tomorrow (if you believe I'm town), and in my case similar for sick and mhsmith VS beeboy.
Only you and mhsmith directly want sick, which actually goes back to me disliking sick/mhsmith as a team and reinforces beeboy as partner to either.

In post 465, Raskolnikov wrote:

In post 463, Zyf wrote:So the main overlap appears to be sick, as far as i can tell.

Actually the difference between first/second read here is HUGE given there won't be follow-up if it goes through.

*if the first is wrong

In post 464, Zyf wrote:Mh, I'm a bit concerned by the fact that you never claimed. It's a bit off.

That's the thing with him I feel and why I'm not even convinced its sick here.

He talks and talks and it sounds like a lot of information and contribution but if you look past it it's kind of hollow and there isn't actually more substance than sick or beeboy.
Although if he was town then wanting to see me or sick claim before he does (as his scumreads) does make sense.

@mhsmith can you go into your beeboy read?

It's silly but the whole wolf shtick really peeves me for some reason

... Now I look really bad.

Claim: VT.

Btw I refuse to believe that vandit was town.
I was completely sure that he was scum and he made the most sense for a lynch.

My scumteam is Rask/Beeboy?

More coming later ill try to defend myself the best I can.

This looks bleak for town...

Maybe Mh/Beeboy.
Actually this makes more sense since Rask is not sure about the big wagon on me.

Beeboy writing off mhsmith as town out of nowhere is kind of weird actually.

Can people actually start going into their reads this game instead of just listing them off?

If there ever was a time..

I'll be back later today, maybe tonight, with more.

Ps when I say "I want to re-read the whole game thread to refine this" I mean exactly that.

Pps I'm vt.