Large Normal 232—Sibyl's Elegy [GAME OVER]

[Marky Mark]

I don't think the XP lim is terrible here, but I think a nero lim is better and would also be quite telling ref XP's slot too.

[Marky Mark]

Tbqh, I've been struggling to keep up with the pace of the game, but I'll try to make time to go back in the light of the multiple flips overnight and re-read ISOs

[Marky Mark]

In other news, I am still down with a vasex wagon and him pushing town yesterday only makes me want this more. Objectively, he's defended a maf PR d1 until their elim was looking unavoidable and then pushed town d2.

[bloodhail]

Ok now why windows is town:
Look at your previous game and check which one is typical scum behavior

A

Scum first accuse their partners and then back off once wagon on them gets serious.

B

Scum first defend their partners and then hop in once wagon on them gets serious.

Observe your previous games and you will see that B is the common case.

Also look at windows arguments, I didn't agree with them but they were reasonable. You can even see that the previous site thing was real.

I’m not the only one doing it. And Kerset has a solid point here.

Kerset also defended XP though. I don’t know man.

kerset was probably killed by etine dude

[Andresvmb]

In other news, I am still down with a vasex wagon and him pushing town yesterday only makes me want this more. Objectively, he's defended a maf PR d1 until their elim was looking unavoidable and then pushed town d2.

You saw my list. I would happily execute amongst {Nero, Vasex, NDMath}. That’s my preferred pool. If folks think XP is Scum I really can’t blame them. XP’s list of votes is terrible, there’s no way around that. They’ve pushed Enchant as an alternative to T3, defended T3 aggressively, did not vote for Dunn (who we know is Scum now), and attacked a laundry list of Town or probable Town D1 (Etine, samantha97, DGB}. But, they did have votes out for T3, Vasex, made an early argument against them, and also suspected NDMath (who I think is suspect), and called Kerset hard Town for example (1943). I think we’re giving them a lot of grief over their perceived overt defense of T3, and that’s entirely reasonable, but we might not be looking at the overall (mixed) picture. But again, it’s never straightforward so, I don’t want to pretend like it is here.

[Andresvmb]

made an early argument against them

This is against T3 not Vasex obviously.

Like that has to count for something no? It doesn’t read like distancing to me.

[Andresvmb]

Also @Rathe do you think Anastasia, Vasex and bloodhail all vote for XP here as part of the pool with no problem and XP is going to flip Scum? I don’t know it just doesn’t seem

right[/] for some reason.

[DrippingGoofball]

In other news, I am still down with a vasex wagon and him pushing town yesterday only makes me want this more. Objectively, he's defended a maf PR d1 until their elim was looking unavoidable and then pushed town d2.

You saw my list. I would happily execute amongst {Nero, Vasex, NDMath}. That’s my preferred pool. If folks think XP is Scum I really can’t blame them. XP’s list of votes is terrible, there’s no way around that. They’ve pushed Enchant as an alternative to T3, defended T3 aggressively, did not vote for Dunn (who we know is Scum now), and attacked a laundry list of Town or probable Town D1 (Etine, samantha97, DGB}. But, they did have votes out for T3, Vasex, made an early argument against them, and also suspected NDMath (who I think is suspect), and called Kerset hard Town for example (1943). I think we’re giving them a lot of grief over their perceived overt defense of T3, and that’s entirely reasonable, but we might not be looking at the overall (mixed) picture. But again, it’s never straightforward so, I don’t want to pretend like it is here.

I don't disagree, but there are too many questions re:Windows and we really need that flip.

[Andresvmb]

I don't disagree, but there are too many questions re:Windows and we really need that flip.

I just think there’s slots that are worse. That’s really all it boils down to. I don’t buy executions for information. I want to execute Scum. And I really do fine Nero Cain and NDMath to be worse.

[DrippingGoofball]

I obviously think there's a very good chance Windows will flip scum.

It seems to me that the game crowd vibes with similar scumreads, so we're basically talking about order of priority at this point.

[DrippingGoofball]

a nero lim is better and would also be quite telling ref XP's slot too.

Could you expand a bit on that?

[Marky Mark]

a nero lim is better and would also be quite telling ref XP's slot too.

Could you expand a bit on that?

We're talking big strokes here but there was a decent amount of friction between xp/nero during d2 particularly in terms of xp pushing nero. If one of the two is scum, I think nero is more likely.

[Marky Mark]

Reads:
Hard town: Marky Mark, Rathe
Town: Nero Cain
Lean town: NDMath, WindowsXP, dcl,

Anya

, DeathNote
Null: Vasex,

Kerset

, samantha,

STD

, DGB,

Dunnstral

, Arte, Andres
Lean scum: Enchant, Cabd
Scum: KittyTacky,

Etine

Most of my null reads are basically people who haven't donr anything.

I don't think T3's scumplay was massively nuanced and I'm willing to bet that he would have tried to sneak one of his buddies into his townreads. I'm town (obvs you can't know this for sure) and Rathe has been on the money so far in terms of reading the game so I think Nero is the likely candidate here.

I also wouldn't be shocked if there was 1+ scum in the lean town bracket (ie NDMath)

[Marky Mark]

I'm very much on the same page as Andres rn, except that I would tentatively extend his pool of Nero/Vasex/NDMath to include Ana too. Honestly, NDMath would be an equally good place to start as the ISO involves a lot of him pushing towny slots and being on the wrong side of flips

[Marky Mark]

I'm very much on the same page as Andres rn, except that I would tentatively extend his pool of Nero/Vasex/NDMath to include Ana too. Honestly, NDMath would be an equally good place to start as the ISO involves a lot of him pushing towny slots and being on the wrong side of flips

[Marky Mark]

Ultimately, the biggest thing we've got to go off imho is the red flip d1. Who fought hard against this? A few people. Maaaybe XP's argument of not flipping a claimed investigative on principle can be bought if one holds their nose enough. What I really struggle to believe is someone yelling for the death of one claimed cop (kitty) while hard defending another until it was clear they were gonna get elimed regardless (T3)

VOTE: Vasex

[Marky Mark]

Disclaimer: I have had a few beers at the pub tonight so things feel like they are making a lot of sense rn

[Almost50]

Dunnstral has been killed Night 2. He was a

Mafia Informed Traitor Neighbour

.

I bloody told you so.

Also, Andres is still TOWN to me. D1 ended with both Dunn & T3 voting him. Unless the scum team was setting Andres to be the deep wolf to end game I dunno how to SR Andres at this point.

[Almost50]

Three deaths, and Dunnstral!scum.

Today is going to be lit.

Are there missed kills Night 1?

If there's and SK then there was. If it's a Vig then they could be Even Night, Novice, or decided to holster on N1.

[Almost50]

I think the Vig shot at Dunn who was being “protected” by Etine, which is why they died too. That would be my explanation. And then the Scum shot Kerset. If I had to guess.

You totally don't know how Babysitter works, do you? Babysitter is a DOCTOR, so it Dunn was shot at while Etine was on him he would NOT have died.

It's the other way around (if your theory is true). Someone shot Etine and he was on Dunnstral, so the babysitter dies and so does his target.

[samantha97]

Reads:
Hard town: Marky Mark,

Rathe

Town: Nero Cain
Lean town: NDMath, WindowsXP, bloodhail,

Anya

,

Almost50

Null: Vasex,

Kerset

,

samantha

,

STD

,

DGB

,

Dunnstral

, Anastasia, Andres
Lean scum:

Enchant

, Cabd
Scum:

KittyTacky

,

Etine

Most of my null reads are basically people who haven't donr anything.

I don't think T3's scumplay was massively nuanced and I'm willing to bet that he would have tried to sneak one of his buddies into his townreads.

I edited it with what I think are safe assumptions

also, I don't think t3 or any mafia would leave a teammate bare in their list like nero cain is; they'd try to obfuscate a bit by listing more than just 1 name

[Almost50]

I think the Vig shot at Dunn who was being “protected” by Etine, which is why they died too. That would be my explanation. And then the Scum shot Kerset. If I had to guess.

This makes sense. But we need to find out if the vig's shot was successful on Night 1 or not (if the shot was available).

Does it??

[Marky Mark]

Reads:
Hard town: Marky Mark,

Rathe

Town: Nero Cain
Lean town: NDMath, WindowsXP, bloodhail,

Anya

,

Almost50

Null: Vasex,

Kerset

,

samantha

,

STD

,

DGB

,

Dunnstral

, Anastasia, Andres
Lean scum:

Enchant

, Cabd
Scum:

KittyTacky

,

Etine

Most of my null reads are basically people who haven't donr anything.

I don't think T3's scumplay was massively nuanced and I'm willing to bet that he would have tried to sneak one of his buddies into his townreads.

I edited it with what I think are safe assumptions

also, I don't think t3 or any mafia would leave a teammate bare in their list like nero cain is; they'd try to obfuscate a bit by listing more than just 1 name

I mean that a very arbitrary assumption to make ref bare entries in the list

Andres/Rathe/Kitty/Dgb feel very clean to me rn, as a combination of known scum pushing them and, by association, kitty's clear of DGB
You/Enchant feel cleanish

[Andresvmb]

I think the Vig shot at Dunn who was being “protected” by Etine, which is why they died too. That would be my explanation. And then the Scum shot Kerset. If I had to guess.

This makes sense. But we need to find out if the vig's shot was successful on Night 1 or not (if the shot was available).

Does it??

What I was trying to describe is whatever situation triggered the death of Etine and Kerset at the same time, with the Scum shooting amongst the two (I forgot the impact of the role). Dunn is clearly a Vig Shot.

[Marky Mark]

Any particular reason you are TRing A50 here Sam? I was findin git hard to get a read on that slot. Like I think its mildly weird to TR him here more than Andres.