Mafiascum.net

In post 4599, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:My pair with fucking Parama's pair is at end-game is still lylo, and there is a reasonable chance she convinces HS to lynch me, and then it basically comes down to inspector. I don't want to be in a universe where I get mislynched at lylo and lose the game for everyone because that's literally miserable.

if it comes down to choosing whether to follow my orders or following Parama, HS will follow my orders, I'm pretty sure.

/stares softly at HS

@pie i guess it makes sense from your perspective then but i'm not sold on kagami being town. but i'm not sure it matters that much if the pair needs to flip anyways?

In post 4491, Kagami wrote:We can keep that order, but I'd want to secure a promise from MDS before I left, which hopefully my flip would be humbling enough to enforce.

Yes. I won't hesitate to vote against Jester in that case.

In post 4600, pieguyn wrote:

In post 4599, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:My pair with fucking Parama's pair is at end-game is still lylo, and there is a reasonable chance she convinces HS to lynch me, and then it basically comes down to inspector. I don't want to be in a universe where I get mislynched at lylo and lose the game for everyone because that's literally miserable.

if it comes down to choosing whether to follow my orders or following Parama, HS will follow my orders, I'm pretty sure.

/stares softly at HS

That is so reassuring......

if Dunn/Kagami was to leave and flip town/town, I believe our current plan is Jester -> Parama -> mhsmith. we would obviously secure the necessary promises to ensure whoever is town in all of those pairs would enforce it, and scout wouldn't do anything as long as my pair is alive.

p-edit: right. if she's scum, she has basically screwed herself over by making sure she won't ever be at endgame, so it doesn't matter if she is the scum in her pair, ignoring the fact that isn't something I think she'd ever do as scum even for "WIFOM" purposes. there are things you might do for WIFOM, but not completely self-destructive things like this that just wouldn't be worth it.

In post 4603, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:That is so reassuring......

relax, I'd obviously double-check with her first I feel sure she'd be fine with it, though.

i reject any plan that involves sad living to endgame fwiw

In post 4606, Parama wrote:i reject any plan that involves sad living to endgame fwiw

thing is Kagami and I haven't come up with any configuration yet that has you/HS and Kagami/Dunn as both town/town pairs.

she can correct me if I'm wrong on this/missed something.

if Dunn is scum, on the other hand, then I live to endgame, which means SAD dies.

UNVOTE: MiniDeathStar

Let's be honest here. If Parama is town, what would Arthur have done this whole game? Push on Shadow (town), push on me (town), push on Parama (town). Horrible, poorly reasoned, unwavering tunnels. I refuse to believe he just sucks this much as town. So that's one scum in the bag.

Next I'd seriously look at Dunn/Kagami. It's like they never even considered Arthur as a suspect, check a few pages back or ISO me because I specifically drew attention to it in my catch up. So hopefully scum #2 is there.

As for #3 I can only guess. I think it would really depend on who the scum #2 actually is. Kagami was reluctant to lynch Smith but eagerly jumped on Jester. Dunn, vice-versa. We'll have to reread carefully and decide whether they were bussing or pushing a mislynch.

In post 4604, pieguyn wrote:if Dunn/Kagami was to leave and flip town/town, I believe our current plan is Jester -> Parama -> mhsmith.

Not it's not. If we leave I'll tell town the order we're lynching in. I'm considering it in our pt.

In post 4610, Dunnstral wrote:Not it's not. If we leave I'll tell town the order we're lynching in. I'm considering it in our pt.

K.

I guess there isn't a big reason to be secretive. I'll come out with my thoughts

I typed it out in the pt and then pie kind of talked about the same thing in the thread then dismissed it

um, what?

I legit don't know what you're talking about here; if I dismissed anything it wasn't my intention.

Now, if Parama is scum, things get more interesting. She's been defending me and Jester practically the whole game, against the popular opinion. I'd lynch us first.

If Jester is scum #2, I've absolutely no clue who his partner could be, because I stopped considering him as scum weeks ago. But I trust pie would figure it out. Just PLEASE don't rule bussing out as a possibility.

If Jester is town, that would probably make Kagami scum, and the third scum would be down to Arthur/Smith. Again, I'm trusting pie to figure it out because she's been looking pretty amazing since towards the end of 1st dance.

Sorry pie. Don't worry too much about screwing it all up, it's just a game and tbh scum have played amazing so far so I don't have high expectations for town to begin with.

In post 4614, MiniDeathStar wrote:Sorry pie. Don't worry too much about screwing it all up, it's just a game and tbh scum have played amazing so far so I don't have high expectations for town to begin with.

<_>

<_>

I'm just gonna assume you haven't seen the last large dance. /covers face in embarrassment and runs away

In post 4614, MiniDeathStar wrote:Sorry pie. Don't worry too much about screwing it all up, it's just a game and tbh scum have played amazing so far so I don't have high expectations for town to begin with.

>"Amazing"
>Parama horrendous play

sad is getting really boring with his quips now tbh

Okay that was actually in bad taste sorry esp in the slight chance you're town Parama I'll feel terrible but either way I'm not gonna judge anyone's play.

Wanted to get one last meme in before I went to sleep...

Edit: Lol :/

In post 4615, pieguyn wrote:I'm just gonna assume you haven't seen the last large dance. /covers face in embarrassment and runs away

I haven't, and I don't think I feel like sifting through 200 pages, so don't worry. Your secret is safe.

[inb4 other dancers from that game start exchanging funny looks with me and pie]

Best lynch for today is HS/Parama. I said before either of them could be scum but it was probably HS, well my view has shifted. I think it's more likely to be Parama. Look at this play today compared to the first day. First day he was gung-ho about lynching a town pair. Today he's.... doing nothing? Even though pressure is forming on them they're not really responding and it doesn't seem like they're trying to figure things out. Keep note of this, because I'm going to bring it up again later

If we lynch the pair today and HS is scum after all, I'd put the lynch order at something like: ---> Jester/MDS
If jester/mds flips town, I'd believe kagami as scum I wouldn't want to kill kagami before jester/mds

Jester/MDS ---> Kagami/me

If Jester/MDS flips scum from there instead, I would evaluate things again from that position



If Parama flips scum (and here's where most of what I've been talking about comes into play): ---> SAD/Scout

Now here me out on this one. I've been toying around with the idea of a bus situation - now, this doesn't tell me of the two are scum. Though I very much doubt they're both scum (which pie/kagami seem to think might be likely)

Here is why the order we kill people is important:

If Scout flips scum, I'd very much reconsider my read on mhsmith/pieguy pair. For obvious reasons, past interactions, what he's pushing today, etc.
I'd reevaluate the game from there.

If SAD flips scum (with Scout town) I'd be inclined to vote mhsmith/pieguy and that's probably game.

I know want this pair to be the pair that everyone suicides for that doesn't die. I don't. There's evidence to back this up:

-IC pair was killed. While this is a weak link, it suggests that scum were happy with the current state of affairs. If scum were all under heavy fire they'd likely wifom it and let cerb fall under suspicion
-Parama isn't doing anything. They're trying to look like they're doing something, but honestly it looks to me as if they've accepted their death. Possibly because it's all part of a bus.
-Scout doesn't deserve to be townread for... whatever he is for. Feels like whenever people talk about scout it's "Oh, dunn is scummy for pushing this and ignoring this other thing. JUST LIKE SCOUT DID BUT HE'S GENUINE ABOUT IT"
-SAD... well, scum can have good games. I've never played with him before so it would be folly to assume this is outside of his scum game.
-if either of these are scum they're hoping to be SET on a parama scum flip and taking it to the end.

So to recap: ---> SAD/Scout
If scout is scum
---> ---> Jester/MDS (Probably, would think about it)

If SAD is scum

---> ---> mhsmith/pieguy

If, however, HS/Parama flips town:

My biggest suspect would be mhsmith/pieguy. Of the two, mhsmith is more likely. Though it can certainly be pieguy

Take a look at the following quote:

In post 4383, mhsmith0 wrote:

In post 4378, Dunnstral wrote:Note that I continue talking to her. And said we weren't in a rush to lynch someone else as I was figuring things out.

The point is, at a meaningful leverage point, you doubtcast it and unvoted, cutting the legs out of its potential momentum. This suggests, to me, that your alignment is likely tied in with that pair's, since if all three wagons were town, then scum!you doesn't really have much incentive to bail on the wagon, while if the jester/mds pair had a wolf in it, then scum!you has a great incentive to seize on "that's not a slip" to try and derail the wagon and change the conversation in a way that isn't really all that likely to grab a large amount of attention. You can nitpick at it, but it's absolutely true that if jester-mds was a scum wagon you derailed it at an fairly important point in time, and "dunn drops a distancing vote and then bails when it actually gathers some momentum" is clearly a plausible explanation for what happened.

The way mhsmith tries to tie me in with jester looks here. Though it would be a bizarre state where he's pushing his own scum buddy while town pushes someone else so I'm not quite sold on this

Still, though: ---> mhsmith/pieguy ---> Jester/MDS
Not sure beyond this. Would rethink. Might be Kagami in this scenario




Anyway:

@scout If you're town I'll definitely go after mhsmith/pie next. Order really is important. I can't lynch mhsmith/pie while doubting your slot.

@pieguy First of all now that my thoughts are out here you can stop saying I'm bussing and trying to chain lynch your pair (which is scum more often than not) because I'd actually vote SAD/scout.
Second:

pieguyn wrote:um, what?

I legit don't know what you're talking about here; if I dismissed anything it wasn't my intention.

I'm talking about these posts around this time period:

In post 4547, pieguyn wrote:SAD/Jester/Parama would mean that the scum team has been going for a mass-distancing approach the entire game, probably with the goal of getting SAD to endgame.

it's what the scum team the last game did, so I wouldn't rule it out, but... ugh.

Which actually came around 10 minutes after I said something eerily similar in my pt (though it was your pair instead of jester)

In post 4614, MiniDeathStar wrote:Now, if Parama is scum, things get more interesting. She's been defending me and Jester practically the whole game, against the popular opinion. I'd lynch us first.

I disagree and there's why

Though I'm here to talk about it

I don't even remember why I scumread mds

She's probably town.

@dunn i'm burned out lol. shadow flip + preparing for vacation has killed any motivation to try and keep up with this game

Kagami, is 4620 something you've signed off on or is that something Dunn came up with entirely independently of what we've been talking about?

I do not fail to notice that if we're in the Dunn/Jester pair/SAD pair gamestate - which I'm starting to believe is increasingly more likely because MDS and Parama are sending town signals, even though they're slight ones - the end result of that plan is that the two town/town pairs are lynched immediately.