In post 4580, Nautilius wrote:-Empire's scumgame is very inconsistent; he can make one big post, but his consistency is absolute shit. During Day 1, Empire was around, he was posting, he was doing a lot of good things. Compare his D1 here with his D1 in that Mini Normal and you'll see a hell of a difference.
-Empire hates scum. Llamarble does not hate scum, and is competent at it. If that hydra drew scum, Llamarble would be the driving head and Empire would be in the background (see any morph the cat scum completed game for an example of that), but Empire was the primary driver the entire game and he's uncomfortable as fuck.
-See Empire's confidence in the mini normal scumgame, where his biggest meta threat was ffery versus his confidence here, where his biggest meta threats were Tammy/Tierce as part of the TET masonry. There's no way in hell he goes from awkward as hell as scum in a Mini Normal to god-tier town D1 here when there are more things he has to worry about here.
I don't think any of these points are valid at this juncture.
1. It's D7. Has Borden looked town at ALL since D1? Neither you nor Tammy can point to anything Empire's done in the last 6 days to justify the townread he gave you D1. How is that anything but inconsistency?
2. OK. a) They are obviously aware of this and are certainly capable of playing on your expectations, and b) Llamarble is also a fucking awesome town player and so is Empire, and as a team they have accomplished exactly jack and shit despite being a universal townread since D1. How is that not ringing alarm bells for you???
3. There's no way in hell? Get real, Nacho. It's called effort. He gave it D1 and he towned it up. In Wingate his town energy never let up despite that game descending into total madness--here he's in an uber powerful D1 townblock with all of his best friends and he tapers off into total nothingness.
Because some of their posting was very genuine - I do not see scum faking that. The only thing I didnt like about their play was not voting SpyreX.
Let's take yesterday's hammer - you say "he's in an uber powerful D1 townblock with all of his best friends and he tapers off into total nothingness" - and his play as scum is to come back and hammer goat? What's the payoff? Compare it with SpyreX's hammer - SpyreX got a mislynch which he otherwise wouldn't have (Amrun). Alfred's hammer just drew attention to himself for no payoff since Goat was going to be lynched anyway.
Posted: Mon Nov 25, 2013 5:09 am
by Messiah Complex
We've been thinking a lot about the lack of NKs and Spyrex claiming that he had a role that required him to hammer.
We think there is a very clear payoff for scum-Borden to have hammered the last two days.
D1 - Thor hammered by PNJ
N1 - No kill
D2 - Amrun hammered by Spyrex
N2 - Macmollie killed
D3 - Spyrex hammered by Tierce
N3 - No kill
D4 - Quadz hammered by Goat on a Raft
N4 - Katsuki killed by Shadoweh
D5 - PNJ hammered by Borden
N5 - No kill
D6 - Goat on a Raft hammered by Borden
N6 - AGar killed
Guess who never got a chance to check in D6 to say who he blocked N5 and then got murdered the next night even though he wasn't in town block?
Borden is scum.
- Des
Posted: Mon Nov 25, 2013 5:32 am
by ooba
In post 4655, Messiah Complex wrote:We've been thinking a lot about the lack of NKs and Spyrex claiming that he had a role that required him to hammer.
We think there is a very clear payoff for scum-Borden to have hammered the last two days.
N5 - No kill
D6 - Goat on a Raft hammered by Borden
N6 - AGar killed
Guess who never got a chance to check in D6 to say who he blocked N5 and then got murdered the next night even though he wasn't in town block?
This is a much stronger reason for the hammer on D6 than above. Gut still says Bowden town but I'll think about it.
Posted: Mon Nov 25, 2013 5:34 am
by Messiah Complex
In post 4654, ooba wrote:The only thing I didnt like about their play was not voting SpyreX.
How about them completely avoiding Quadz too? After being present on virtually every major town wagon D1 and D2 (ooba, Thor, SafetyDance, Amrun), Borden was nowhere to be found on either of the two flipped scum.
Not only were they not lynching scum, they weren't doing anything at all. On D3, Borden's name appears under "Not Voting" in 10 of the 27 VCs--when they were voting, it was either AGar (the first Spyrex counterwagon) or Alchemist (the 2nd).
D4 is more of the same.
Borden didn't vote the entire fucking day four. Not once. How is that even possible?!?!
D5--12/13 Not voting! Only showed up to hammer PNJ.
D6 - Quickhammer.
I cannot emphasize enough how scummy Borden is.
- Des
Posted: Mon Nov 25, 2013 5:36 am
by Messiah Complex
@ Ooba: We think Spyrex was lying about it being his role specifically. We think he just claimed it because that would seem like a realistic fakeclaim.
- Des
Posted: Mon Nov 25, 2013 5:40 am
by Cephrir
In post 4657, Messiah Complex wrote:D1 - Thor hammered by PNJ
N1 - No kill
D2 - Amrun hammered by Spyrex
N2 - Macmollie killed
D3 - Spyrex hammered by Tierce
N3 - No kill
D4 - Quadz hammered by Goat on a Raft
N4 - Katsuki killed by Shadoweh
D5 - PNJ hammered by Borden
N5 - No kill
D6 - Goat on a Raft hammered by Borden
N6 - AGar killed
Guess who never got a chance to check in D6 to say who he blocked N5 and then got murdered the next night even though he wasn't in town block?
Borden is scum.
- Des
This is a very interesting point.
Posted: Mon Nov 25, 2013 6:18 am
by Shadoweh
In post 4653, Messiah Complex wrote:When he was Syry, yeah. And during the Tierce/coin thing.
Why are they town?
- Des
But Alchemist is still Syry >.>
Oh I get it, I guess I'm the mysterious third party. When I am an SK I especially like to tell everyone about my killing ability and let people know my nightly whoreabouts. I'm waiting for Empire to do something besides hammer and leave I guess? I really didn't think that'd be an issue. :/
Posted: Mon Nov 25, 2013 7:37 am
by Titus
Ooba, why is Borden town? Desp's case looks fucking flawless. All you've said is you think Borden is town, or you'll think about it.
Posted: Mon Nov 25, 2013 8:20 am
by ooba
In post 4663, Titus wrote:Ooba, why is Borden town? Desp's case looks fucking flawless. All you've said is you think Borden is town, or you'll think about it.
I'm a intuitive player (see spoiler) - I go by what feels right.
Spoiler: My Playstyle
In post 4492, ooba wrote:If I had known that's what you were going to do, I would have suggested someone better
I have a feeling this is T vs T
In post 4270, ooba wrote:PnJ is flailing yes - but this is town flailing, not scum flailing ... I'll be happy if I'm proved wrong but I just don't feel it.
Also, the entire game state just doesn't feel like one big scum team anymore - far too many town reads and unless all rest Chaos scum are in {elle, TheAlch, PnJ, AGar, GR} (and even that seems unlikely given voting patterns) - I just can't see it. Let me take a look at VCs again.
That said I'll try and highlight my reasons. Overall: Alfred's posting comes from a town mindset. A lot of his posts seem to echo my thoughts and to a certain extent, my reads. (D3-D4)
SpyreX replaces displaced! Welcome him to the game
Man, I really want to be super amped here but the truth is I just feel like this game got way harder.
- This is EXACTLY what I thought after SpyreX replaced in to the displaced slot
- His analysis posts were bang on. His meta analysis of me was so good that whenever I was neutral on someone in the game, I'd go back and read his meta analysis on that player. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p5398193
Now effort is not town - but this is genuine town hunting.
- We've agreed on all most all town reads. (Except probably Benmage - I still have him as neutral)
What I don't like about him:
- He disappeared for the most part when we had lynches on SpyreX+Quadz.
- The lack of activity
Where my read stands right now: The same one I had on Nacho on D3 - a town read who's posting level has gone down and makes me uneasy. I hope they'd come back and make uber posts like Nacho did so that we can go back to lynching scum.
Posted: Mon Nov 25, 2013 9:09 am
by Titus
Ooba, I am not a gut player for the most part. For me to back off AB, I would need an explanation fr how the dual hammers came from a town mindset and a hole in Desp's case. Your play from the gut is wholly unpersuasive.
Posted: Mon Nov 25, 2013 9:46 am
by SafetyDance
Titus in going with the flavor of the month shocker.
I like MC's case but it's more flawless irt why Agar was killed than why AB is scum. That said, I had an early scum read on the slot before it was fashionable, but did choose to focus on Other Targets more recently. Going back to re-read and see if reasons still apply.
That was the worst attempt at a vote before, kinda missed an important part to it, sorry.
Vote: TheAlchemist
Posted: Mon Nov 25, 2013 9:48 am
by SafetyDance
Day 1 and Syry was in spam party mode early on and then went with the crowd later in the day.
Was. not. Town.
Posted: Mon Nov 25, 2013 10:01 am
by Garruk Relentless
Heh, me and Messiah are on the same wavelength for once.
Posted: Mon Nov 25, 2013 10:38 am
by Alfred Borden
Empire's gone (permanently) at this point.
I am not hammer-powered.
I saw we'd reached the foregone conclusion point, didn't disagree, and decided to proceed.
Twice.
Didn't notice Agar hadn't posted yesterday.
I'll see you guys in Massachusetts.
Posted: Mon Nov 25, 2013 7:07 pm
by Eddard Stark
Posted: Mon Nov 25, 2013 9:27 pm
by Shadoweh
Nautcho: If Alfred is scum then Llamarble would be the one doing the posting!
Llamarble: Empire is gone. Forever. I locked him in the basement and ate him.
Marble hurry up and make a real god damn post. :V
