Signs and Void (Game Over) [TM2015]

[singersigner]

You don't get it.

No follow the cop allowed.
Scum have a roleblocker.

I'm not valuing Mastina's doc anymore than CDB's track. I'm supposing that neither will happen to any significant respect. Rather, it's Mastina's bulletproof that I'm valuing more. By booning her, we force scum to block her, thus keeping her alive.

By keeping her alive, we have her prowess available to crack the fucking game.

How do you know scum have a roleblocker?

Also, the bolded is chalk full of crap and you know it. No one trusts Mastin's reads as much as you claim to, and lo and behold, she's town reading you, so that's not worth much. If she's BP she'll be alive anyway, so why the speculation? Why wouldn't you assume scum would roleblock her anyway because they're not worried about CDB? If, as you say, Mastin's more valuable...

[Titus]

Wrong again. If CDB is roleblocked, it doesn't matter as much because there's zero chance of believing he's bulletproof. He'll never get off an investigation, so we're booning a VT. We boon Mastina. Scum block her, then they still have to get through her bulletproof so she'll be kept alive.

Here, we have CDB booned. Scum block Mastina, shoot CDB. CDB gets no result and a wasted boon.

Scum have a roleblocker or something like it because the game is not breakable by follow the cop. Read the wiki.

[Titus]

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... ow_the_Cop

I've even pasted it for you.

[singersigner]

How do you know scum have a roleblocker?

[TellTaleHeart]

I ask because I'm suspicious about there only being one kill last night. Scum probably would have seen me as a high priority night kill during the first minor night, so I would consider it reasonably likely that they would prep detects on me. Obviously however, I would have been a much lower priority nightkill during the major night to the point where scum may even have considered it beneficial to not kill me.

You

are

a high priority kill or you

are not

? You just said both. You're also putting a lot more assumptions into your theory for keeping me in the lynch pool than you're suggesting.

There are other potential explanations for there only being one successful unmake,

Yes, simple and basic mathematics.
The sign mechanic gives a 1/3 chance of guessing the sign correctly and given 3 unmakes, calculating the expected number of kills in any given night yield a value of...

one

.

Now of course there are things like the detect mechanism and protective (or other killstopping) roles that influence the probabilities slightly but the rough estimate should be pretty close to the actual and it was likely by hito's design.

[TellTaleHeart]

Also DV, make no mistake.

I'm getting you lynched today.

[Shadoweh]

Here, we have CDB booned. Scum block Mastina, shoot CDB. CDB gets no result and a wasted boon.

Booning Mastin doesn't stop the same block mastin, shoot CDB thing from happening though. Being booned doesn't make you immune to a roleblock, and doesn't mean they have to nightkill you. The doctor doesn't have as many choices to make as the tracker in theory could have, that's why it's more efficient in my opinion. From the scum perspective, they have to plan their kills as if Mastin is correctly targetting anyways.

It sure is a shame we don't have a watcher to sit on CDB :V

[vezokpiraka]

How do you know scum have a roleblocker?

He's scun. That's how he knows.

[Untrod Tripod]

titus is a she

don't be a dick

[Titus]

@Shadoweh,
I absolutely agree with your analysis regarding successful night actions. I want to boon Mastina because it keeps her alive most likely. Neither are likely to be useful but Mastina being alive serves us, so if we force scum's hand to block her, they have to keep probable town alive. Probable town with a possible/probable bulletproof. I don't think it matters because I've lost this argument, but I'll bet dollars to donuts because CDB is not getting a useful investigate.

The watcher point is frustrating, because it only would have worked if TTH didn't claim. Scum can use factional abilities twice or some such nonsense if we unlocked TTH. So TTH and CDB get blocked, no results. Having no double actions does box scum into a corner.

@DV, Speculating about yourself being a nightkill is worthless. Provide something actually useful. I was townreading you but my patience has worn incredibly thin with the time you're spending blathering about theory, without any sort of practical conclusion to be drawn their from. It's empty posting. You've went this entire time without even commenting on the boon which is a waste.

[Titus]

I ask because I'm suspicious about there only being one kill last night. Scum probably would have seen me as a high priority night kill during the first minor night, so I would consider it reasonably likely that they would prep detects on me. Obviously however, I would have been a much lower priority nightkill during the major night to the point where scum may even have considered it beneficial to not kill me.

You

are

a high priority kill or you

are not

? You just said both. You're also putting a lot more assumptions into your theory for keeping me in the lynch pool than you're suggesting.

There are other potential explanations for there only being one successful unmake,

Yes, simple and basic mathematics.
The sign mechanic gives a 1/3 chance of guessing the sign correctly and given 3 unmakes, calculating the expected number of kills in any given night yield a value of...

one

.

Now of course there are things like the detect mechanism and protective (or other killstopping) roles that influence the probabilities slightly but the rough estimate should be pretty close to the actual and it was likely by hito's design.

I'm actually surprised there was a kill at all, but that would be an off the wall theory anyway which would be tantamount to coaching scum to explain. I would have been worried if we had zero kills.

[Oversoul]

@Shadoweh,
I absolutely agree with your analysis regarding successful night actions. I want to boon Mastina because it keeps her alive most likely. Neither are likely to be useful but Mastina being alive serves us, so if we force scum's hand to block her, they have to keep probable town alive. Probable town with a possible/probable bulletproof. I don't think it matters because I've lost this argument, but I'll bet dollars to donuts because CDB is not getting a useful investigate.

At least this way we force scum's hand to concentrate their power roles in specific areas (CDB and Mastin).

Anyway, I'm tired of this. I just want to get to lynching people, so can we please just boon CDB? I doubt anyone will follow you onto Mastin, Titus, so might as well make your vote useful.

[Oversoul]

@Shadoweh,
I absolutely agree with your analysis regarding successful night actions. I want to boon Mastina because it keeps her alive most likely. Neither are likely to be useful but Mastina being alive serves us, so if we force scum's hand to block her, they have to keep probable town alive. Probable town with a possible/probable bulletproof. I don't think it matters because I've lost this argument, but I'll bet dollars to donuts because CDB is not getting a useful investigate.

At least this way we force scum's hand to concentrate their power roles in specific areas (CDB and Mastin).

Anyway, I'm tired of this. I just want to get to lynching people, so can we please just boon CDB? I doubt anyone will follow you onto Mastin, Titus, so might as well make your vote useful.

[Titus]

I'll hammer. We need one more vote before I can hammer. Maybe I'm holding out for a miracle but I'm seriously debating just waking up and arguing the opposite of what I want, because I just see the town doing stupid crap again. I've been nice polite and trying not to dominate, but I don't kiss ass well. I'm very frustrated at this point.

[singersigner]

Loool, you don't kiss ass well...you literally kissed Ffery's ass all of yesterday with only lynching "Ffery approved" lynches, so much that you made a 180 back off of me

because of her

. Then you tried to appeal to me on a few occasions, so how can you feel like you don't kiss ass well? Because it's not working?

[vezokpiraka]

titus is a she

don't be a dick

I'm not. I'm sorry. My language doesn't need pronouns and when I'm sleepy I forget what should I use.

[hitogoroshi]

VC 110 (Minor Day 2, VC 12)

Boon:

Target player automatically matches Sign for all abilities this Major Night.

(7)

ChannelDelibird:

singersigner, Oversoul, TellTaleHeart, Shadoweh, ChannelDelibird, DeasVail, vezokpiraka [L-2]
(3)

mastin2:

Titus, Cheetory6, Formerfish
(1)

TellTaleHeart:

Untrod Tripod
(1)

Oversoul:

Gammagooey

(5)

No Boon Vote:

Bulbazak, ActionDan, Espeonage, Aronis, mastin2

With 17 players alive it's 9 to Boon. Minor Day One ends on Monday, May 4th at 8:00 PM CST.

Minor Day One Deadline

(expired on 2015-05-04 20:00:00)

mastin2 is V/LA until May 4th.

Nineteen and a half hours until deadline.

[Bulbazak]

Screw this. I'm just going to catch up during the night. Short as possible: Why should I boon CDB?

[Bulbazak]

Top of page made me look back over Mastin. She's a doctor, strong town, and I definitely trust her a heck of a lot more than Channel, hitchikes on every major wagon, Delibird.

Boon Mastin2

[Gammagooey]

Ugggh

I really don't actually want to boon CDB here

the risk of him being scum and getting two free kills seems waaaay worse than the bonus of giving him the option to track anyone tonight. like if we were down to 2 scum or something then it'd be great but i don't see it actually being useful for catching people at this point, and it doesn't even force him to fake useful results if he's scum since he can just say he was roleblocked.

and I'm not anywhere near confident enough about him being town to really justify ignoring that.

[vezokpiraka]

Ugggh

I really don't actually want to boon CDB here

the risk of him being scum and getting two free kills seems waaaay worse than the bonus of giving him the option to track anyone tonight. like if we were down to 2 scum or something then it'd be great but i don't see it actually being useful for catching people at this point, and it doesn't even force him to fake useful results if he's scum since he can just say he was roleblocked.

and I'm not anywhere near confident enough about him being town to really justify ignoring that.

NO. Fuck off. Cdb was at l-1 and you unvoted. You don't think he's scum. This is posturing. I'm advocating you get lynched asap.

[Bulbazak]

Mastin should get more votes. I'll give clearer thoughts on everything at the start of the major day, but for now, sleep.

[Gammagooey]

NO. Fuck off. Cdb was at l-1 and you unvoted. You don't think he's scum. This is posturing. I'm advocating you get lynched asap.

confidence is the main word here

i think there's decentish reasons to townread pretty much anyone in the game at this point
and i do think he's likely town, but some of my and other people's general town reads are going to be wrong and playing as if that weren't the case is pretty shortsighted

I think the benefit we get for booning him correctly is very small compared to the potential downside of being wrong about his alignment.

[vezokpiraka]

This is bullshit. You want us to fail the boon. The deadline is in 16 hours.

[Gammagooey]

given how hard i pushed to get actual LYNCHES through yesterday as opposed to this junk that's a pretty silly assumption.

i'll be on-site in 8 hours or so, if tth or someone else wants to tell me why they think cdb getting booned would be likely to be useful then i'd prob be willing to do it.