Posted: Sat Dec 19, 2020 5:33 pm
In post 4698, mastina wrote:That makes it my turn.
VT.
As far as reads go, lemme just post this quickly so that the reads are in a separate post that's easier to read and find, but basic cliffnotes:
I cannot in good faith betray the trust of pichu and thus feel obligated to sheep pichu on Ydrasse/PBE being town, and overall I still feel Solstice is town, so the pool I am looking at is {Spiffeh, Dunnstral, Dr Easy Bake, Toogeloo} but I wanna extrapolate on that in a separate post dedicated to the reads, lemme post that and then give me like...half an hour or so to write it up.
Forgot a technical readslist:In post 4699, mastina wrote:With the masons alive, this is the players left to sort.In post 0, Blade Dancer wrote:Alive Players:
Spiffeh
Polar Bear Express (Noraa and Gloria Cleary)
Ydrasse
Solstice (Mistyx and Morning Tweet)
Toogeloo
Dr Easy Bake
Dunnstral
Ircher
There's three scum left, so it is appropriate to reevaluate townreads, but...
I really really really want to sheep pichu in his faith in Ydrasse and Polar Bear Express. As I seem to recall, those two slots were among his top townreads and I really really want to trust him on them. So I really want to have faith that pichu was correct, and write them off as town.
Ircher I have felt has been pretty town the entire game long. His handling of everything, as well as his stances, have felt like they came from town. He's been reasonable, rational, and overall felt like he was coming from a town mindset and not playing to FL's gameplan. While I realize that there could be deepscum, I just don't think it's him.
Solstice actually looks far better overall to me today in my opinion. I've really loved Morning Tweet's contributions and feel that MT's assessment of the claims yesterday was highly highly town. Misty's lowered presence is a bit concerning, but she's looked town while around and overall the slot has been acting in a way that I don't think scum act in this game.
Which leaves:
Spiffeh
Toogeloo
Dr Easy Bake
Dunnstral
4 names for 3 scum.
I think there's no world in which Toogeloo is town--he is pretty much lockscum here.
Dunnstral could be town or scum here, but his status is pretty much dependent on the other two, which bring to mind the following questions:
Do the scum have a deepscum player who was fairly active?If the answer to this is yes, then Spiffeh is scum, because he's the only player among the four to meet that criteria. He's been active and reasonably town, but very easily could be scum. But there's quite possibly the chance of 'no'--in which case, all of the scum were in the lurkers and Spiffeh is town. If Spiffeh is town, then Dunnstral is scum and DEB is scum, but if he's scum, then one of them is town.
I personally would feel guilty eliminating Spiffeh today regardless of his alignment. If he's scum I kinda want to pay him the respect of leaving him until there's three scum dead. And if he is town, I feel I owe that to him to help give him the time to prove that he is town by helping the town eliminate scum. But this is one of the main questions I need to figure out an answer for; if Spiffeh is the scum's deepscum, or if the scum didn't have any deepscum.
Did the scum plan a double-detective claim?If the answer to this is yes, then Dr Easy Bake is scum. But there is at least the chance that this is a 'no'--in which case, if he is town, then Spiffeh and Dunnstral are both scum. I can see the case either way here, but since DEB is claiming he has a spicy result, he might be town here.
It should be noted; for Dunnstral to be town, it requires the scum to have an active deepscum (Spiffeh)andfor scum to have planned a double-detective claim (DEB).
At daystart, I was thinking Toogeloo-DEB-Dunn with a chance of Spiffeh, but while my thoughts are still not fully formed yet, I can't really properly form full thoughts right now (I took a nap while I was waiting to wake up in the hopes that it would kickstart my brain but my brain is still in 'waking up' mode right now so I'm not fully firing on all cylinders), but right now I actually lean towards Spiffeh-Dunnstral-Toogeloo.
I do feel the need to reiterate; no matter what, I think Toogeloo is scum here. I don't think that the scumteam is ever Spiffeh-Dunnstral-DEB here.
Which is why I feel like my vote there is the best overall.
I also think that, while Dunnstral has done a fair amount to look town, there is a certain level of resonance in him being scum--I can explain my scumread on Toogeloo quite well, but on Dunnstral while the thoughts don't form as easily it just resonates on a gut level as being overall something that I see.
Similarly, DEB being town is something I've no evidence for, just gut. I am still concerned about the possibility that he's scum with the whole stunt being a double-fakeclaim, buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut, if we do eliminate two scum, then DEB will produce innocents--if he is a real detective, FL will literally be forced to kill him or else risk generating hard-clears. If he isn't a real detective, that'll become more obvious with time. So he shouldn't be the elimination yet, maybe ever.
Spiffeh is someone who I can't really sort as town or scum conclusively right now, but if my assumptions on who are town is correct, then he'd by necessity be the third scum.
So overall, right now my preferred elimination order would be: Toogeloo > Dunnstral > Spiffeh > Dr Easy Bake.
Double the Trouble
MURDERCAT
Creature
Polar Bear Express
Ydrasse
Ircher
Solstice
DEB
Spiffeh
Dunnstral
Toogeloo