Mini 427 - Clue Mafia 1 - Game Over, Who Won!?
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- Mastermind of Sin
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al_kohaulec
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Yes, it should even say that in the opening post. And I'm a little confused by something you say in the beginning. The gambler's fallacy part. IIRC, it was TCS who tried to pull that argument, but it sounds like here you're trying to attribute it to me.BillyTwilight wrote:BM, what "evidence" are you talking about? I don't see anything in his analysis of alko's play that is very damning.
Alko, weren't you the cook in Clue 2? Please elaborate. It's one thing to pull a gamblers fallacy on if you are scum or not in multiple games, but to draw the same name in two of the Clue games? Especially when all of the characters are not in all of the different games, and considering how the cook is not a name that really goes with the other claims in this game so far... It's a 1 in a ridiculously-large-number chance that you would be the cook in two of the three Clue games. I'm willing (for the moment) to believe you've gotten a couple of your roles confused. However, I would like you to elaborate on your claim here.
And I don't see how you can claim any name doesn't fit in with the other roles when every role after the 6 main characters are equally valid contenders.
But I do agree Yvette is the most likely the last scum, and I can't imagine one of the six main characters not being in the game, so that would only leave me and Haschel, and I've been distrusting of Haschel for his play and his claim so
Vote: Haschel
AIM account: DolusDeceit [s]not al_kohaulec[/s]
- Haschel Cedricson
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Haschel Cedricson
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- al_kohaulec
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I don't have any definite proof. But careful analysis and some luck can make figuring out player's roles a possibility. It's not the same thing, but I did remarkably well faking a watcher role in Clue 3, wasn't perfect, but it was still faking three nights worth of investigations and nabbing a don on the first night.
AIM account: DolusDeceit [s]not al_kohaulec[/s]
- Haschel Cedricson
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Haschel Cedricson
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- al_kohaulec
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al_kohaulec
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It wasn't guessing roles, merely who each person targetted, which takes into account whether or not a player can even target somebody, and there are only so many possible targets that are even possible.
And it was guessing flavor, but not to the point of knowing what a pm said, merely similar to knowing what name corresponds with everybody. We know all the possible names, and knew a number of the names that have already passed (the dead players and claimed players), so with a limited number of names left and players left, it becomes much easier to do. It's completely different than guessing the flavor along the lines of "You are a blacksmith who has left his blacksmithing work to use your steel hammer to bash in the heads of those who oppose the town."
And it was guessing flavor, but not to the point of knowing what a pm said, merely similar to knowing what name corresponds with everybody. We know all the possible names, and knew a number of the names that have already passed (the dead players and claimed players), so with a limited number of names left and players left, it becomes much easier to do. It's completely different than guessing the flavor along the lines of "You are a blacksmith who has left his blacksmithing work to use your steel hammer to bash in the heads of those who oppose the town."
AIM account: DolusDeceit [s]not al_kohaulec[/s]
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ZOMG MODKILL ALKO-HE QUOTED HIS ROLE PM!!!!!
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:
Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4
winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4
winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
- DragonsofSummer
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- al_kohaulec
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al_kohaulec
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Battle Mage
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omfg, can we lynch this guy yet?
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:
Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4
winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4
winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
- al_kohaulec
- al_kohaulec
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al_kohaulec
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- BillyTwilight
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Whoa, I am really confused here. Alko, you were the Cook in Clue 2, correct? I wasn't attributing a gambler's fallacy to anyone yet, except possibly myself. I was saying that I find the probability of you being randomly assigned the Cook in both Clue 1 and Clue 2 seems extremely large to me. You can call that a gambler's fallacy if you want, but considering not all of the roles have been in every game and therefore we can't assume that there even is a cook in Clue 1, the chances of you being the Cook in both games just seems so small that you would have to do some serious convincing to make me believe it.al_kohaulec wrote:Yes, it should even say that in the opening post. And I'm a little confused by something you say in the beginning. The gambler's fallacy part. IIRC, it was TCS who tried to pull that argument, but it sounds like here you're trying to attribute it to me.BillyTwilight wrote:BM, what "evidence" are you talking about? I don't see anything in his analysis of alko's play that is very damning.
Alko, weren't you the cook in Clue 2? Please elaborate. It's one thing to pull a gamblers fallacy on if you are scum or not in multiple games, but to draw the same name in two of the Clue games? Especially when all of the characters are not in all of the different games, and considering how the cook is not a name that really goes with the other claims in this game so far... It's a 1 in a ridiculously-large-number chance that you would be the cook in two of the three Clue games. I'm willing (for the moment) to believe you've gotten a couple of your roles confused. However, I would like you to elaborate on your claim here.
And I don't see how you can claim any name doesn't fit in with the other roles when every role after the 6 main characters are equally valid contenders.
But I do agree Yvette is the most likely the last scum, and I can't imagine one of the six main characters not being in the game, so that would only leave me and Haschel, and I've been distrusting of Haschel for his play and his claim so
Vote: Haschel
I assumed when you claimed cook that you were confusing Clue 1 and Clue 2. Please clarify; I want a definitive statement saying, "I am the Cook in both Clue 1 and 2." I know you were the Cook in Clue 2 (your dead and revealed) but please just make this statement so I can be sure that there is no confusing of the games going on here.
Until there is clarification on this I don't want to proceed in a lynchmob forming against Alko. We can't afford a lynch in this game based on what might be confusing which game is which.
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[i]Frisch weht der Wind
Der Heimat zu
Mein Irisch Kind,
Wo weilest du?
Oed' und leer das Meer.[/i]
Und sagt die Zauberw├â┬Ârter Simsalbimbamba Saladu Saladim
Der Heimat zu
Mein Irisch Kind,
Wo weilest du?
Oed' und leer das Meer.[/i]
Und sagt die Zauberw├â┬Ârter Simsalbimbamba Saladu Saladim
- al_kohaulec
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al_kohaulec
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- Mastermind of Sin
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Mastermind of Sin
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- Mastermind of Sin
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Mastermind of Sin
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Battle Mage
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OMFG, CAN WE GET THIS GAME MOVING? Srsly, i'm lurking here, and the sad truth is, nobody even notices because i'm the most active poster.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:
Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4
winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4
winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
- DragonsofSummer
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- al_kohaulec
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- Haschel Cedricson
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Alright, here's a list of claims/reveals in the order in which they occured.
Jack, Mrs. White, Tracker, lynched Day 1
Ancalagon, The Cop, Clue Finder, strangled Night 1
MrBuddyLee, Miss Scarlet, SK, lynched Day 2
The Central Scrutinizer, Wadsworth, Cop, Guilty on MBL, clobbered Night 2
Haschel Cedricson: Singing Telegram Girl, Vanilla/Clue Finder
Ectomancer, The Motorist, Clue Finder, lynched Day 3
chaotic_diablo, Mr Boddy, Blackmailer, killed N3
BillyTwilight: Mr Green, vanilla (after HC found that out)
Battle Mage: Mrs Peacock (after HC said Yvette/Peacock)
DragonsofSummer: Col Mustard (silenced day 3, third last to claim)
dahen: Professor Plum (second last to claim)
al_kohaulec: The cook (last to claim)
First off, you will note that when I first claimed STG, only four roles had been confirmed in the game. Assuming I was scum who wanted to avoid claiming Yvette or Mr. Boddy, that would leave me 8 roles to choose from: Mrs. Peacock, Mr. Green, Colonel Mustard, Professor Plum, The Motorist, The Singing Telegram Girl, The Cook, and The Chief/Evangelist. If I was lying, I only had a 12.% chance of guessing the character that was not in the game.
Next, I correctly identified BT as Mr. Green and BM as Mrs. Peacock. Again, assuming that I'm lying about being a Clue Finder, I had a 20% chance of guessing who BT was and then a 25% chance of guessing who BM was.
12.5% * 20% * 25% = .625%
That's less than a 1% chance of me guessing the setup.
BM claimed Mrs. Peacock, DoS is Colonel Mustard, and dahen is Professor Plum. These are all primary characters and are extremely likely to be in the game. al_ko and I are the only people left claiming auxillary characters, and the numbers indicate that I am not scum. al_ko is the only logical choice.
Jack, Mrs. White, Tracker, lynched Day 1
Ancalagon, The Cop, Clue Finder, strangled Night 1
MrBuddyLee, Miss Scarlet, SK, lynched Day 2
The Central Scrutinizer, Wadsworth, Cop, Guilty on MBL, clobbered Night 2
Haschel Cedricson: Singing Telegram Girl, Vanilla/Clue Finder
Ectomancer, The Motorist, Clue Finder, lynched Day 3
chaotic_diablo, Mr Boddy, Blackmailer, killed N3
BillyTwilight: Mr Green, vanilla (after HC found that out)
Battle Mage: Mrs Peacock (after HC said Yvette/Peacock)
DragonsofSummer: Col Mustard (silenced day 3, third last to claim)
dahen: Professor Plum (second last to claim)
al_kohaulec: The cook (last to claim)
First off, you will note that when I first claimed STG, only four roles had been confirmed in the game. Assuming I was scum who wanted to avoid claiming Yvette or Mr. Boddy, that would leave me 8 roles to choose from: Mrs. Peacock, Mr. Green, Colonel Mustard, Professor Plum, The Motorist, The Singing Telegram Girl, The Cook, and The Chief/Evangelist. If I was lying, I only had a 12.% chance of guessing the character that was not in the game.
Next, I correctly identified BT as Mr. Green and BM as Mrs. Peacock. Again, assuming that I'm lying about being a Clue Finder, I had a 20% chance of guessing who BT was and then a 25% chance of guessing who BM was.
12.5% * 20% * 25% = .625%
That's less than a 1% chance of me guessing the setup.
BM claimed Mrs. Peacock, DoS is Colonel Mustard, and dahen is Professor Plum. These are all primary characters and are extremely likely to be in the game. al_ko and I are the only people left claiming auxillary characters, and the numbers indicate that I am not scum. al_ko is the only logical choice.
Sorry for not posting Saturday.
Here are my continued analysis of Alko:
Let's see when the answer comes.
Here are my continued analysis of Alko:
Nothing.Alko #11 wrote:Messrs?MrBuddyLee wrote:
Does anyone else care to comment on the curious interaction between Messrs.
Ok, we can all be busy.Alko #12 wrote: Yeesh, I'm doing bad right now, I do intend to respond to the post Billy referred to, and have been ever since I first read it, but my schedule right now definitely isn't going to allow it of me.
Good news though, this week is the last week of classes, next week I finish up finals, and then I'll have summer and a little more free time. I do promise to respond to that post ASAP though, I will say for now that I did not agree with everything in it, though.
Let's see when the answer comes.
Alko #13 wrote: EBWOP: Based on his play so far in all three games, I'm inclined to believe that TCS is town, but until I have time to look things over, I don't know what to say about his cop claim.
I don't know about that. But I know there is still no answer TCS' question.Alko #14 wrote: Doesn't FBI normally find out the SKs?
This is the last real content Alko posts. I think this post is quite scummy and for the rest of the game from this point on Alko only seems confused.Alko #15 wrote: (too long to quote, please read it)
accuse al_kohaulec
- al_kohaulec
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al_kohaulec
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Why lynch me tomorrow? As I said in my last post,al_kohaulec wrote:Well with how stale this game's going, I honestly can't find it in me to want to defend myself. I'm sorry, just somebody finish it so you guys can lynch Haschel tomorrow.
me wrote:First off, you will note that when I first claimed STG, only four roles had been confirmed in the game. Assuming I was scum who wanted to avoid claiming Yvette or Mr. Boddy, that would leave me 8 roles to choose from: Mrs. Peacock, Mr. Green, Colonel Mustard, Professor Plum, The Motorist, The Singing Telegram Girl, The Cook, and The Chief/Evangelist. If I was lying, I only had a 12.% chance of guessing the character that was not in the game.
Next, I correctly identified BT as Mr. Green and BM as Mrs. Peacock. Again, assuming that I'm lying about being a Clue Finder, I had a 20% chance of guessing who BT was and then a 25% chance of guessing who BM was.
12.5% * 20% * 25% = .625%
That's less than a 1% chance of me guessing the setup.
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DragonsofSummer
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