Page 20 of 34
Posted: Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:31 pm
by Huntress
Gideon (Town Doctor) has been lynched.
It is now Night One.
Deadline for Night One is Sunday, 16th October 1pm BST, (in (expired on 2016-10-16 13:00:00)).
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2016 1:00 am
by Huntress
SmoothBlue (Town Tracker) died Night One.
It is now Day Two.
With seven players alive, it takes four votes to lynch.
Deadline for Day Two is Sunday, 30th October 1pm GMT, (in (expired on 2016-10-30 13:00:00)).
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2016 1:08 am
by Human Sequencer
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2016 2:14 am
by Toto
<rant>
Gideon, if you are reading this, you should have told us you were the doc. You completely screwed our chances in this game. We would have one live tracker with some info for us instead two dead PR.
</rant>
@Everyone: Should we draw any conclusions from the fact Frank hasn't been replaced yet? My guess is not.
@Everyone: I'm sorry for the hasty hammer. I did it for a few reasons. One of them is that I was hoping we could use our tracker + the above to draw some conclusions. I didn't like HS last post on D1. In fact, I don't like a lot of the posts from HS on D1, specially since we now know they are not a PR. I will come back to this later.
@Copper: I think it's time to tell us why you are so convinced HS is town.
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2016 2:36 am
by Human Sequencer
You knew I wasn't PR from post 100.
Gideon was probably scared from post 358 and post 364.
I understand why you'd be suspicious of me, in fact I understand I hold a very suspicious position now. But I'll note that my question about nightkills was because I wasn't sure how powerful our tracker was.
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2016 3:04 am
by Toto
@HS I think you may be right about Gideon. About post 100. It does make you less likely (at the time) to be a PR. I did not realize it before. I need to think how that affects my other reads on you. Not sure if it does.
Copper, you pointed you didn't want to explain this before. I'd appreciate this now. What made you say this in post 178.
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2016 3:25 am
by copper223
I already explained that read in detail Toto.
Unless HS is the type of scum player that can build cases on others and make them look legitimate (and I gave that a 20% probability) the amount of game solving and investigating he has done strongly points at him being town (can you imagine most scum players checking to see how often SB was online just so they can point that out to make their case on him better? It is much more likely that a suspicious townie will pay attention to that).
VOTE: ChaosOmega
I am willing to follow mainstream today again, if this isn't scum though it's time for full paranoia mode.
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2016 3:29 am
by copper223
My top suspects are ChaosOmega and TownCop.
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2016 3:44 am
by Human Sequencer
Frank has done almost nothing all game. We can't afford to let his slot go without being scrutinized thoroughly today, considering how important our lynches are right now.
ChaosOmega and Frank are my main suspects.
What has caused you to flip on Jasomega's slot from day one? You've changed your mind.
Could you direct me to some posts I should have a closer look at on TownCop? I don't see much wrong so far.
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2016 3:58 am
by Toto
Solving effort does make a good case for Town!HS. However, I don't think the cases he built were legitimate.
+ SB's case was not good. It had many assumptions about what everyone else was supposed to be thinking at the time and how SB knew that and was util¡zing that information. I could make the same case against HS in many posts. Including the one where he accuses SB. It was also selective. It didn't include SB attack on you in post 122, Copper, which was definitely not something everyone else was thinking. Selective accusations and quoting are pretty bad.
+ Gideon's case had some false accusations in it and was very opportunistic. I don't like that Gideon was an obvious easy mis-lynch and he pushed so hard on it.
Chaos is a second option for me today. I didn't like that slot early interactions and I don't like the replacement's job so far.
I haven't thought of TC again. What's your case on him?
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2016 4:20 am
by copper223
In post 483, Human Sequencer wrote:What has caused you to flip on Jasomega's slot from day one? You've changed your mind.
Could you direct me to some posts I should have a closer look at on TownCop? I don't see much wrong so far.
My early interpretation of how Jason plays town (VI tunneler) doesn't fit with him coming back and switching to SB (which we know was town and the best mis-lynch at the time) without interacting with me further and the reasons he gave are weak (I don't think the content I produced in the middle part of D1 is in any way different from the start, other than being slightly less transparent about my town-reads).
The rest of his ISO is him trying to convince me that my read on SB is shit, when we now know I should have stuck with it.
ChaosOmega repalced in just to vote the other heavy mislynch target of the day (Gideon), and did nothing else.
His case was good and it could just be town making a case on scum and being busy thereafter, but on average I can clearly see a possible and even likely scum design behind those reads and posts.
TownCop is the other one on the Gideon train I don't think is town, I do think there is at least 1 scum on that wagon so if it's not Chaos it's TC. Frank could well be both player's partner.
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2016 6:56 am
by SpyreX
I saw that flip and sighed because the logic that lead to it was easy enough to follow, but Gideon please in the future don't do that.
I really want this lynch. Ideally, actually, id like a fast day today.
VOTE: Chaos
All i ask is for a chance to adjust my reads because if hes scum chances are extremely high I die tonight.
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2016 9:42 am
by Toto
That's L-1
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2016 9:52 am
by SpyreX
I was really trying to see how much would change and its not.much. copper would bother me a bit more on a scum.flip here but scum.has no reason to.come.out swinging with all the prs dead.
So if its scum here then... tc and frank probably? Would be my remainders.
Town here is a whole different mess. Then its really buckle down because im very, very doubtful id eat a bullet.
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:13 am
by copper223
Spyre preemptively justifying his continued existence in the game in case of a town flip is worrisome, but he has a ton of cred for the Gideon read.
Do you agree that for now the energy is much more promising today Spyre?
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:17 am
by SpyreX
I'm pointing out the obvious.
I expect to be killed if this is a scum flip. I expect not to if im wrong.
So, as a function of that, if im wrong I'll be here tomrrow to buckle down.
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:19 am
by SpyreX
The energy? Well it's the same group that was energetic like before so.. no? Not any change in expectations.
But like i said I'd love to see a fast day. The slow, to a large degree, is the cause for the d1 nonsense.
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:44 am
by Toto
In post 489, copper223 wrote:Spyre preemptively justifying his continued existence in the game in case of a town flip is worrisome, but he has a ton of cred for the Gideon read.
So you are worried he could be scum, but not so much because he correctly town read someone? How does that make sense?
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:52 am
by SpyreX
Its fairly common toto. Its the inverse of how everyone was all ready with gideon scum meant me scum
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2016 11:21 am
by Toto
I mean. Doesn't mafia KNOW the truth? Why is your correct guess more likely to make you town? .I just don't understand the thought process. I actually think you are town.
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2016 11:23 am
by SpyreX
Because if i was scum coming out to protect him eliminates a lynch choice in theory.
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2016 11:37 am
by Toto
Well. It didn't stop it and got you town cred. Maybe you thought the lynch was going to happen at some point anyway.
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2016 11:39 am
by SpyreX
Oh I'm not disagreeing I'm discussing it generally ic sytle.
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2016 11:50 am
by Toto
Seems convenient. How many games would you say you have ICed?
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2016 11:52 am
by SpyreX
Maybe one other?
I took a long break from the site and i thought coming in and giving back would be a good idea.
Now if the question is how versed am i on the site or with the game itself that's a very different question.