Newbie 1875 | D4

Irrelephant11 · Post Post #475 (ISO) » Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:41 am

In post 105, Xander wrote:
@Xander - you seem to be reading most things but have not provided your own thoughts. Surely you have had to have some reactions to Invis, Plat, or me?
I've been thinking about this a lot. Intially I had some things that I somehow missed (like what RVS stood for? Random Vote Stage?) What does "scummed" mean? So many terms so fast!

Plat:

@Teacher I still wanna know if you had an actual reason voting for me or if it was an RVS vote.
I am trying to decide if this seems like Plat is pushing for information, or is defensive about being voted for. They don't really seem to be in danger of being lynched so being defensive is a bit odd from what I understand.

However:

@Teacher:
Random possibly Newbish thought, with the Daskter newbie slot being replaced twice now, how likely do you guys think the slot itself is scummy?
This post really unsettles me. It seems like a really big leap to be making. Is it common for new players to be scared off by being mafia, and then just leave instead of having to be hunted? It seems like a stretch to me. So, I am definely eyeing Plat

Teach:
This town better get its poop in a group.
This is a statement that is odd to me as well. The town better get it's stuff together? Not "we had better get our stuff together" or "we should work together". Is this indicative that you aren't town?

I don't think that Invis has made a post longer than a tweet. I don't get any read from that.

WingedCat is on a .. leave of absence?

Everyone keeps saying that "so and so" is moving the town perspective forward. But the only person who has done something which has helped me understand or move my understanding forward is StunGun.

So to sum it off, I am wondering about Plat, and to a lesser extent teach but that might just be me not understanding how people here.

This is actually a big reason for my scumreading Xander. The first time I read "I've been thinking about this a lot. Intially I had some things that I somehow missed (like what RVS stood for? Random Vote Stage?) What does "scummed" mean? So many terms so fast!" I actually remember thinking "weird, this sounds like someone who has had their questions answered. But he didn't ask them in-thread, so where did he get these answers?"

Additionally, he focuses a lot on how suspicious Plat is without placing a vote

teacher · Post Post #476 (ISO) » Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:14 am

Fwiw, the town read of stun was after Plt parked there - accomplishing the dual scummy objectives of distancing and avoiding the same wagons. I’m never changing my vote.

stungun0404 · Post Post #477 (ISO) » Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:29 am

so, i was right about platfleece! glad to see that.

i’m going to reread to see if i can pick out any further associative indications before laying a vote down

stungun0404 · Post Post #478 (ISO) » Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:03 am

OK, let's start with a vote count analysis, now armed with the knowledge that platfleece was indeed scum, and espeonage indeed town.

Spoiler: vote count analysis: part 1

that successfully completes 1/2 of the vote counts worked on rigorously by xreconerx (thanks!). part 2 is coming later when i find the time, from which i will draw some weighty conclusions together with the information drawn from vc 1 here. early scum prediction is xander, largely because of taking stances on platfleece while also not voting platfleece--this has bad looks upon initial review.

stungun0404 · Post Post #479 (ISO) » Mon Jul 09, 2018 11:37 am

Spoiler: vote count analysis, part 2

Conclusions: I will continue to assert with this new evidence that is highly, highly unlikely that teacher is scum. So, he's still a heavy townread for me. Reasoning for this is leading the EoD lynchwagon against platfleece, which i'm thinking a scum member for sure would be resistant to doing this.

Based on vote placement, it is most likely from my experience that the remaining scum is most likely to be in either the not voting column, or a late addition to the lynch wagon if it's an experienced player. This leaves invisibility, nexus, and Xander as the most likely options for remaining scum, with a very slight chance of it being irrelephant (i don't see this because of my townread on him in addition to him being the clear counterwagon with basically all of town having to be on him or platfleece)--it's likelier that irrelephant would not force things in his partner's direction when he was facing a potential lynchwagon himself. Additionally, I still have a townlean on Invisibility from what i've seen out of his gameplay, and nexus. So that leaves Xander--who had newb!town looks, but his gameplay so far is very easily to duplicate in the case he is newb!scum--so it is by no means necessarily newb!town.

VOTE: Xander, on account of not voting for the majority of the last day phase, in addition to scumreading plat but not following it up with a vote or anything else.

L-2

teacher · Post Post #480 (ISO) » Mon Jul 09, 2018 11:48 am

Just so we are clear, i think that’s L-1 since only 7 are alive.

stungun0404 · Post Post #481 (ISO) » Mon Jul 09, 2018 11:59 am

In post 480, teacher wrote:Just so we are clear, i think that’s L-1 since only 7 are alive.

correct observation. you’d be right. i am ok with this lynchwagon being at L-1 right now, though. however, i’ll take issue if somebody is to hammer him before we hear from him.

Klick · Post Post #482 (ISO) » Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:01 pm

teacher/stungun/Irrelephant are fairly obvious town at this point due to the way they pushed plat. I'm happy with the Xander push. I don't thiiink it's Nexus. And I wouldn't be too surprised if it were Invisibility.

Xander, at this point, you should claim your role.

stungun0404 · Post Post #483 (ISO) » Mon Jul 09, 2018 3:33 pm

^ i take the above post by Klick to mean intent to hammer,

so yes,

@Xander: when you get the chance, please claim your role!

Xander · Post Post #484 (ISO) » Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:50 pm

Sorry, no role just a vanilla. What I really need to do is figure out how to be helpful towards finding actual mafia if/when I get lynched.

Xander · Post Post #485 (ISO) » Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:35 pm

Teach : A part of me wants to push back at teach, but the rational part of my brain realizes that coming at me the way he has is probably way too obvious for mafia.

Stungun : Also voted for me. His analysis was pretty good, however he didn't give any reasons for us to believe that he isn't the scum.

Klick : Does he really think the scum could be invisiblity or is he trying to set it up for Invisibility to take the fall once I flip as town?

Mostly I am wondering why the last round went on forever but now it seems like this round is being pushed through before anyone can glean any information on other people. So my question to all the innocents is - What information do you have to lead you to the scum in Day 3 when I come up as innocent at the end of this round? Why is this day being rushed? Who is pushing for this lynch the most in a way that appears scummy?

teacher · Post Post #486 (ISO) » Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:55 pm

So, I still believe 85%+ that Xander is the scum. Im happy anytime anybody wants to hammer. But since Im awake at this godforsaken hour, I will try to answer his questions.

Today feels shorter because we already have information from D1, not to mention information learned over N1, and so arent starting from scratch. Even so, there has been no lack of new information learned today. Both from how I started the morning, and from messages thereafter, I moved two slots (Klick and Elephant) into lock town. I dangled Klick to see if Elephant would bite and he did not.

I didnt get the point of Stun's VCA to be honest -- it was spoilered, but he didnt seem to draw too extensive conclusions from it except what could have been summarized in just a few sentences. But still from style of game in general and focus on Plat D1 m very inclined to believe he is town. like 99%.

I agree with Klick on Invis: the hesistancy on Plat, the desire to avoid today's lynch wagon -- assuming town!xander, could well be scum!invis letting town lead the way and avoiding the blame for it. Invis is the primary alternative suspect to you, at like an 12% chance he is scum.

The last 2% go to nexus, for what Im inclined to view as playstyle differences.

Invisibility · Post Post #487 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:40 am

im not convinced that Xander is scum

Irrelephant11 · Post Post #488 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:16 am

I’m ready for hammer, honestly. Our PoE pool is small and all that’s left is to lynch it. Of course, that assumption’s slightly dangerous, but informative PR can course correct D3 if necessary. Prolly jail keeper or cop should choose Invisibility tonight, if Plat flips green. Then again, WIFOM is helpful when it comes to PRs, so PR do what you will

teacher · Post Post #489 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:58 am

In post 418, stungun0404 wrote:

stungun0404 · Post Post #490 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:56 am

^ stungun endorsed quote above.

we have more than enough info to carry us forward. if not xander, it’s either nexus or invisibility. i feel confident asserting final scum must be in that pool of 3. teacher is locktown, and upon reconsideration—irrelephant is locktown on an effort basis combined with how ridiculously unlikely it would be for scum to duplicate his gameplay so far as a replace in together with his avid push

against

platfleece, plus klick is locktown for his push against espeonage being a wagon D1.

so the townbloc i feel comfy with is

stungun, teacher, irrelephant, and klick

stungun0404 · Post Post #491 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:58 am

xander, if you think i might be scum, then i suggest you reread me vs. plat and see if that theory still holds.

Nexus · Post Post #492 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:41 am

If you are SURE

vote Xander

Xander · Post Post #493 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:48 am

I suppose that is interesting, but I think the better question is why you haven't included Invis or Nexus on your townbloc? What about them makes you think they could be mafia?

Let's just assume I am going to be day lynched in this round, I'm not even fighting it. I just want the town to have somewhere they are going in day 3 that could lead to a town victory. I did a ISO for Nexus and he doesn't really seem to say a whole lot. This response

This response wasn't super inspiring

In post 468, Nexus wrote:
In post 465, Invisibility wrote:VOTE: Nexus
Nexus could be Plat's partner
i can see bussing in wingedcatgirl's vote because iirc she never provided reasoning
also voting plat and going onto espe
Come ooooooooooon

He was also the last vote on the Plat bandwagon, after it was clear which was things were going.

invis has said he doesn't think I am mafia, but really hasn't provided any solid reasons for why.

teacher · Post Post #494 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:51 am

Said all I need to say for twilight in 486. But I hope it’s over.

Xander · Post Post #495 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:51 am

Oh, am I not supposed to post after it's reached the majority needed, or does it not count until reckoner has posted the kill?

Nexus · Post Post #496 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:52 am

If my response wasn't inspiring, why not say something before?

I would look scummy if I didnt hammer, to be fair.

teacher · Post Post #497 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:53 am

NO you can post all you want. Everything after this doesn’t count. So you can tell us if it’s done or not if you want. If your town give us your best guess.

Nexus · Post Post #498 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:57 am

In post 497, teacher wrote:So you can tell us if it’s done or not if you want.

Don't do this. Wait for the mod. It's shitty play to reveal the ending.

teacher · Post Post #499 (ISO) » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:59 am

AH my apologies. I had no idea. Where I’ve played elsewhere it has been accepted. Sorry.