In post 473, Bell wrote:@Kanna, I believe you.
It's Sou that's the bad one.
<33
sou means well though!
~kanna
Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:35 pm
by Sou and Kanna
~kanna
Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:39 pm
by Sou and Kanna
~sou
Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:51 pm
by Michael Scott
Nice job, KMD!
I had it narrowed down to Klick or Reck for SK's partner during the night phase, but I was strongly leaning towards scum!Klick based on the events of day one. The only thing that really stood out to me with Reck was that he pushed SK for most of day one, but then at the last minute he started pushing Bell instead as we got close to the deadline (it's very risky to keep pushing your partner when you know there's a JK, especially when they are the main wagon).
No one else even made sense as SK's partner. Auro has been strongly townreading Bingle and Clidd/Bell for most of the game (I think Bingle is towny too, and despite initially scumreading Clidd I came around on the slot). I also found Agar consistently towny. Aside from that, Agar was consistent in pushing SK, and it wouldn't have made sense for scum!Bell to vote for SK and put them in a position where they most likely would be forced to claim right before the deadline.
And, sorry Bulge. I shouldn't have second guessed myself on you vs SK at the last minute! That deadline "surprise" was unfortunate.
- Date Mike (Volxen)
Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:55 pm
by Michael Scott
@KMD You are definitely going to jail Reck again, right? With one scum already being outed, I really don't think that scum would pull a no-kill gambit or try to kill Reck instead of you.
No one else should vote for SK for the time being, so they can't quickhammer themselves.
No-kill gambit is entirely plausible in this scenario - it's got a 5/7 shot of practically guaranteeing a misfloss if Kmd targeted a townie, and they gain the kill back eventually because we're on evens.
There are plenty of people who don't make much sense as SK's partner, this game should practically be a lock. I highly doubt AGar goes for the hard bus all day yesterday. Still think it's super doubtful that it's Bell.
That leaves {Reck, MS, Bingle} in about that order. And I don't really think it's Bingle.
I'd also like to posit that 'blatantly buddying my scumbuddy' isn't a strat I'd be likely to go for as scum replacing into this game lol.
No-kill gambit is entirely plausible in this scenario - it's got a 5/7 shot of practically guaranteeing a misfloss if Kmd targeted a townie, and they gain the kill back eventually because we're on evens.
There are plenty of people who don't make much sense as SK's partner, this game should practically be a lock. I highly doubt AGar goes for the hard bus all day yesterday. Still think it's super doubtful that it's Bell.
That leaves {Reck, MS, Bingle} in about that order. And I don't really think it's Bingle.
I'd also like to posit that 'blatantly buddying my scumbuddy' isn't a strat I'd be likely to go for as scum replacing into this game lol.
No-kill gambit is entirely plausible in this scenario - it's got a 5/7 shot of practically guaranteeing a misfloss if Kmd targeted a townie, and they gain the kill back eventually because we're on evens.
There are plenty of people who don't make much sense as SK's partner, this game should practically be a lock. I highly doubt AGar goes for the hard bus all day yesterday. Still think it's super doubtful that it's Bell.
That leaves {Reck, MS, Bingle} in about that order. And I don't really think it's Bingle.
I'd also like to posit that 'blatantly buddying my scumbuddy' isn't a strat I'd be likely to go for as scum replacing into this game lol.
From my POV there are only two possibilities: Reck is scum (99% likely) or you are scum (1% likely at this point). Because objectively speaking, no-killing on night one when one scum is already outed and is the guaranteed day two elimination is a misplay for scum. If Reck actually is town, for scum to successfully frame him via mechanics, they have to no-kill for two nights in a row: if they only no-kill on night one and then kill KMD on night two (or anyone else for that matter), then Reck automatically becomes confirmed town, thus negating the whole point of no-killing on night one to begin with. On the other hand, if scum goes for the frame Reck route and no-kills again on night two, then they very likely would pull off the Reck mis-elimination on day three, but then they need a total of four mis-eliminations (instead of the usual three mis-eliminations) to meet their win condition. Which again defeats the purpose of the whole gambit -- scum would be much better off with just killing KMD on night one and trying to win through dayplay.
- Date Mike (Volxen)
Posted: Sat Aug 29, 2020 1:21 am
by Bell
Are we good?
Posted: Sat Aug 29, 2020 2:26 am
by Kmd4390
Vote Sou and Kanna
Posted: Sat Aug 29, 2020 6:02 am
by xRECKONERx
VOTE: Sou & Kanna
I'm def. not scum but if scum wanna waste time no killing tonight to frame me then that's only good for town so I don't really give a fuck
Posted: Sat Aug 29, 2020 11:13 am
by Michael Scott
I'm ready to end the day if everyone else is. I'll wait a bit before voting in case Bingle has anything that he wants to add.
No-kill gambit is entirely plausible in this scenario - it's got a 5/7 shot of practically guaranteeing a misfloss if Kmd targeted a townie, and they gain the kill back eventually because we're on evens.
There are plenty of people who don't make much sense as SK's partner, this game should practically be a lock. I highly doubt AGar goes for the hard bus all day yesterday. Still think it's super doubtful that it's Bell.
That leaves {Reck, MS, Bingle} in about that order. And I don't really think it's Bingle.
I'd also like to posit that 'blatantly buddying my scumbuddy' isn't a strat I'd be likely to go for as scum replacing into this game lol.
No kill gambit would be hilarious, but it's really not worth worrying over for town. See y'all tomorrow.