In post 4822, MUSHSHAGANA wrote:I want to pay really close attention to these flips and I want scroll-holders to hit their favorite targets, NOT who town likes. We tried this "work with the scrollbearer" shit before and it went wrong, there's a good chance of going 0 for 3 /again/ if we let the rest of the town influence this shit I think.
I'd say who I want to see Fred hit, but I want to minimize my influence here. Also, uh, I think Fred's scum anyway, so.
the sooner i exit the better this game is depressingly boring. most people aren't even playing
Fair enough. I'll be sad if you are town Pooky.
VOTE: Pooky
I would be fine going this route since I am null on Pooky if it weren't for the fact that I actually have another scumread on another player that only Gloria Cleary seems to be taking seriously.
@Fred, do you honestly think Pooky is ever scum here from these posts?
Yeah, Gloria Cleary, Tayl0r Swift is the one I was referring to there.
I don't see how anyone can say with any certainty that PookyTheMagicalBear is not scum from those posts.
By the way, that is not me saying I scumread PookyTheMagicalBear. I am more null on that player.
They are very clearly never buddies here and if you sr Tayl0r than shouldn’t you be tr or at least tl Pooky? All of those posts plus his posts on Titus and others. He is coming across like extremely frustrated town who has a solve that no one is listening to - one that you clearly seem to agree with btw. He was willing to die to take out his srs. He has been extremely straightforward about his position. Why does scum!Pooky rail about “scum”!Tayl0r for pages. How does that further any kind of scum agenda?
Precisely to make no one think he is scum with Tayl0r Swift.
@Fred if you’re town here, please don’t give the scroll to Pooky or he might give it to MC and then we’d probably have six dead town.
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:47 am
by Noraa
How confident are we that this flips scum? I basically didn't read anything these past few days :/
got extremely lazy
In post 4780, Gloria Cleary wrote:
I never want Titus to get the scroll, first, second or third. You know why? I don’t ever want to kill my trs.
i have lots of townreads. some of them are gonna die. there are some that give more info than others. same reason i dont mind dying myself despite knowing im town. also
im not trying to paint fidget as derailing the fred wagon
In post 4777, Tayl0r Swift wrote:who is providing the main opposition to the fred wagon? who is trying to derail it?
Then what do you call this? And why did you misrep the post where she requoted the VC with Pooky’s name in green. You accused her of sr Pooky when she very clearly said she didn’t want him to get the scroll. Meanwhile, he is still in YOUR PoE, is he not? How is Fidget derailing Fred wagon by actually voting him when you’re not?
You’re calling her scum for two things, she’s clearly taken the exact opposite position of what these posts are explicitly alleging.
you need to re-read my post. you clearly arent getting what i said.
In post 316, Tayl0r Swift wrote:nah i think its a bad wagon, but this whole time ive been saying theres probably a better than random chance noraa flips scum, just not enough of a chance that she deserved the pressure shes under. its whatever, but its kinda dumb.
So, Tayl0r Swift, you thought that there is a better than random chance that Noraa flips scum, but you townread her?
i mean... if you look at my stances on page 8 or whatever that is, youre gonna notice some differences from my stance here on page 200ish. sorry.
By the way, Tayl0r Swift, what you thought was quoted from page 13 and your townread of Noraa is deduced from defending Noraa from Lady Lamdadelta in pages 8-10. The posts between page 10 and 13 are less than 5 hours apart. Also, it doesn't help that I can't find a post before that one where you say there is probably a better than random chance Noraa flips scum. I will give you the opportunity to dig up a post where you say that before that one, though.
She clearly has no agenda and what Pooky has said about her I agree with. She seems to be very confused about exactly what is going on in the game. The way she previously pushed Pooky, tone, the fact that she doesn’t seem to have any kind of agenda and looks like she’s genuinely trying to figure out the game.
I could ask you what makes her scum? I can tell you that if there exists a Titus scum game where she’s playing anything like this, I am unaware of it. In every scumgame of hers I’ve read, she very blatantly had some kind of suspicious agenda she was hard pushing or her tone was off or she just said things that were really weird. I haven’t seen any evidence so far of her doing any of these things. Here she looks to be sincerely solving, At worst, she should be a null read for you. Nothing she’s done so far is even remotely scummy.
ive felt all the things you say titus isnt doing. some of her townreads are lazy. soem of her scum reads dont seem to make sense or follow. she isnt solving like she normally does at town. why are you trying to decide what my reads should be?
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:41 am
by Titus
I should be more active real life tomorrow. My move is 95% done. Today, I have a lot of work to do.
Reminder that Shelly tried to start /two/ counterwagons. One was just as Fred was getting started, the other was at the stall point of the wagon.
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:46 am
by Tayl0r Swift
In post 4835, MUSHSHAGANA wrote:Reminder that Shelly tried to start /two/ counterwagons. One was just as Fred was getting started, the other was at the stall point of the wagon.
ok but there are 5 scum. even if they dont all want to vote together they could at least assemble some sort of counterwagon. they could have hopped on fidget with me. unless both fidget and fred are scum. but there were plenty of vanity counterwagons
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:46 am
by Tayl0r Swift
although shelly hopping on the wagon suggests shelly scum if fred is scum.
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:00 am
by Titus
In post 4835, MUSHSHAGANA wrote:Reminder that Shelly tried to start /two/ counterwagons. One was just as Fred was getting started, the other was at the stall point of the wagon.
What stops Shelly and Taylor from being wrong town though?
In post 4826, Noraa wrote:How confident are we that this flips scum? I basically didn't read anything these past few days :/
got extremely lazy
I dunno. I'm not scum so I don't know how likely this is. I can tell you that just from an empirical standpoint he's slightly more likely to flip scum than random. But beyond that I couldn't tell you.
the lack of a counterwagon kinda proves that fred was town.
I feel like you've said this exact stuff before. Do you normally just say the same things every game?
was it true last time i said it? or i was scum then?
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:26 am
by Bell
I forgot. It just sounds vaguely familiar, It’s too broad an argument to likely be true. Not all scum are comfortable leading counter wagons/who knows what else.
In post 4835, MUSHSHAGANA wrote:Reminder that Shelly tried to start /two/ counterwagons. One was just as Fred was getting started, the other was at the stall point of the wagon.
What stops Shelly and Taylor from being wrong town though?
Nothing stops it. I've already been wrong once this game (Hopkirk -- I was fairly sure Toog was town but was feeling time pressure, and I needed to dig into Vax before I had an opinion, then that became irrelevant). No one is immune to being wrong, or we could pick that person to do all the science for the rest of us.
I would have thought that was self-evident, though, so I didn't say it. Also, what's the point? Confidence lets me get ahead of the game on a red flip, and honestly if we don't hit scum this pass I think we're in for a long, grueling, miserable late game loss anyway, so confidence also keeps my interest alive.
I do think that scum is in the townblocs and sitting pretty, though. I think Fred's wagon stalled and they had over-distanced from each other too hard to create a useful narrative for building a counterwagon in time. Hence being in the townblocs -- we have a lot of prominent players who don't like each other but get a ton of townreads from the outside. Lurkers could naked-vote a different wagon, or Adorable could do another pass at Noraa though I think that ship has sailed -- oh wait, Adorable DID do that, so sure, Adorable can be scum, whatever.
But this doesn't account well for many -- you have to presume most of the scum is in lurkslots (which makes yesterday look like a freak coincidence where we precisely miss the few scum in the category) or that most of the scum is in consensus scumreads (which is weird since it's mostly consensus town slots getting those out of trouble, e.g. me with Noraa) or that the scum has at least some presence in townblocs. Which means that our townreads are going to be covering for 2-4 scum.
IF I am right about that, we need to rely on scrolled town shooting from the hip and taking no direction in the process, because scum is inside the town decision loop and building our consensus for us. If we let town help direct scroll-passes, scum that has near-universal townreads gets to control where it lands, and we never hit two scum in a day.
It also means we need to start doing serious VCA, and paying close attention to the context of that VCA. Some examples, right?
Shelly looks awful here if Fred flips red, not because of her position in the vote-counts, but because she jumped on, off, back on, back off of the wagon (and I don't recall her getting back on at the end) and kept trying to get attention spotlighting her when she hopped off.
Adorable looks sorta bad here if Fred's red, because of the eleventh hour Noraa push long after everyone else has sort of ruled Noraa out (though I'm reconsidering for the reasons I'm going into here).
I and Bell (but more me) look pretty bad in a world where Fred flips green, because we were the /primary drivers/ of this wagon, especially me. I think this is less useful for overall sorting, because I do believe my reasons for the scumread were damned good, and it's the ...what, second time Bell has shown animation about a wagon? Maybe even first. Also the first day's scroll hits show that town can't find town very well here, which does also diminish the degree to which we look bad. Or I'm biased and will be eliminated afterwards, but as I said: confidence, etc.!
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:32 am
by Tayl0r Swift
i mean there was virtually no resistance to the wagon. it was mostly myself and fred. since im town that means no scumbuddies were defending. gamestate heavily implies it was a town wagon. wagon composition also heavily implies we hit town. gonna go ahead and assume we hit town here.
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:44 am
by Titus
In post 4844, MUSHSHAGANA wrote:It also means we need to start doing serious VCA, and paying close attention to the context of that VCA. Some examples, right?
So I need to do my job tomorrow IRL. Got it.
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:57 am
by MUSHSHAGANA
No aggressive resistance to it, Tayl0r. Lots of more or less passive resistance, though. Resistance doesn't always take the form of "STOP NOW OR ELSE".
Shelly trying to pull votes onto different wagons (twice), Adorable attempting to resurrect a long-dead wagon, Gloria requiring a knockdown case that tickled her specific reads, MURDERCAT initially trying to resist softly then realizing that maybe their reads suck, Pooky trying to put more attention on you and themselves while the wagon was at a lull point. Add in you and Fred, and yeah, that's way more players than there are scum, but keep in mind scum distancing as well here -- defending too directly ties players to their scumbuddies. In a case where that scumbuddy isn't likely to go down, it's fairly safe. But Fred's wagon was more of a when than an if: his predecessor was Maximum Scum and his play was scummy even by the unique standards you have to read him by.
So passive defense is more likely for scum in such a position, because if they defend too hard it guarantees town goes 2-for-1 instead of 1-for-2. The scum team wants nothing less than that, because that's the path to a town win at this state (where we've already gone one day without hitting scum).
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:21 am
by MURDERCAT
In post 4847, MUSHSHAGANA wrote:MURDERCAT initially trying to resist softly then realizing that maybe their reads suck
In post 4780, Gloria Cleary wrote:
I never want Titus to get the scroll, first, second or third. You know why? I don’t ever want to kill my trs.
i have lots of townreads. some of them are gonna die. there are some that give more info than others. same reason i dont mind dying myself despite knowing im town. also
im not trying to paint fidget as derailing the fred wagon
In post 4777, Tayl0r Swift wrote:who is providing the main opposition to the fred wagon? who is trying to derail it?
Then what do you call this? And why did you misrep the post where she requoted the VC with Pooky’s name in green. You accused her of sr Pooky when she very clearly said she didn’t want him to get the scroll. Meanwhile, he is still in YOUR PoE, is he not? How is Fidget derailing Fred wagon by actually voting him when you’re not?
You’re calling her scum for two things, she’s clearly taken the exact opposite position of what these posts are explicitly alleging.
you need to re-read my post. you clearly arent getting what i said.
I feel like you've said this exact stuff before. Do you normally just say the same things every game?