Mafiascum.net

i feel like my poe is narrowing and that i'm probably townreading scum somewhere but idk who it is because i townread too many people at this point tbh

In post 4824, skitter30 wrote:harley toog
maybe gypyx

which i'm aware probably doesn't contain everyone but that's where i'm at rn

that's uninspiring but it's not like you're the only one tossing those names around so i can't fault that


i don't even know much i want to get into this, but for a lack of better conversation subjects - why did you believe i "should" have been townreading cakez when i wasn't?

In post 4821, Gamma Emerald wrote:also the plan is still not entirely formed wrt whether we want more or less trusted folks to cross first
as clearly evidenced by you wanting ydrasse (your townread) voted across when me and dwlee are having talks that involve more suspected slots crossing first

i will emphasize again i don't think the order matters that much and settling on it in advance may even be detrimental. we hammer out a PoE and then we blitz through voting on the crossing

i know, i need to do a bigger reset but i just plain don't have the motivation for it just now
but i do think that leaving all 3 behind will net at least 1 scum (like i don't think i'm *that* off) so i don't feel too bad abt it tbh

r.e. sircakez: most of what he was getting scumread for was basically nai, and i felt like you were fixating on things thta looked bad on like a 'shallow' level but weren't really
like i remember you just basically calling him empty and hollow and making bad observataions but i don't think those things were ai for him in particular and especially not in the context of 'he's busy irl and isn't ~focusing~ too much on the game'
so it kinda looked like u were trying to find things that looked bad on some level
and his response to ur push was townie but you kept pushing it for a while

I'm starting to dislike trying to identify a set order. I think that feeds scum too much info.

And I frankly doubt that everybody will keep their reads as this event progresses. So it feels counterintuitive to completely leave town in highest confidence later. We risk heavy weight town uncrossed - or at least a highly contentious "who is better to cross."

There's also the issue with putting a bunch of lower confidence townreads first. Scum isn't necessarily incentived to kill unless 1 of them crosses early, and low-to-mid PoE on everybody's list will likely contain a scum among a bunch of mislimmable town. This creates a tumultuous PoE rife with WIFOM, and doesn't provide a strong safeguard to town crossing later.

I would suggest we rotate our crossing motives, but I almost feel that that can also be abused.

Everybody is voicing the same 3-4 people that they are ok with uncrossing. So why does nobody agree on who should cross?

In post 4829, Taly wrote:Scum isn't necessarily incentived to kill ,

if

1 of them crosses early,

This is better wording on my part.

I also don't want to hypothesize what rotation of motives we choose until each cross has completed. We just need a consensus when we have to.

In post 4829, Taly wrote:Everybody is voicing the same 3-4 people that they are ok with uncrossing. So why does nobody agree on who should cross?

i think there's a few consensus scumreads so it's easier to find commonality amongst the people who oughtn't be crossing but the top townreads aren't as consensus so it's harder
and there's differieng strategy on how the crossing should work, etc

i don't think we should focus *too* much on the crossing order tbh because scum is just probably going to kill the first person crossing they think is somewhat threatening, it matters more who doesn't cross

pedit i think scum is always incentivized to kill because why wouldn't they take a kill offered, no?

In post 4832, skitter30 wrote:pedit i think scum is always incentivized to kill because why wouldn't they take a kill offered, no?

I'd argue there a better kills for scum than others in this plist.

I might try to compile everyone's pools and determine who should definitively get left out

it was literally 24 hours realtime and i can't really just slam the brakes right away although i did come around eventually


i'm well aware that he's often not nuanced but it seemed at the time that there was little thought behind what he was saying and his game was mostly shading a ton of people which i felt was decently scummy (and, like, a brief refresher on the games i had played against him shows he capable of more advanced thoughts than "thing bad" "thing good"). in hindsight i was probably collapsing context on him by just going through his iso for his attacks on people and not the trajectory

and when you say i was "trying to find things that looked bad", that's...just what scumhunting is? i go through what people say and look for things i find suspicious. if you're trying to say i was forcing a case, well, the problem is that i'm still not sure i necessarily understand what you think i was there - you can say the stuff i was pushing isn't AI but that doesn't really mean i should have been finding him towny as you seem to have implied

VOTE: Taly

I'm back to wanting this. The objective at it's simplest form to is have town at every turn cross regardless of risk, so I'm starting with myself.

things being somewhat consensus-y, even among the people being left out, ought to be ringing alarm bells

I either bait the NK and resolve my slot or I gain tons of info about the gamestate and have the life to parse it.

Scum loses somehow, I'm sure.

In post 4802, Taly wrote:Pre-analysis,

peta/ydra

are top tier townreads and I don't know what this game is anymore.

explain the ydrasse read?

In post 4835, petapan wrote:it was literally 24 hours realtime and i can't really just slam the brakes right away although i did come around eventually


i'm well aware that he's often not nuanced but it seemed at the time that there was little thought behind what he was saying and his game was mostly shading a ton of people which i felt was decently scummy (and, like, a brief refresher on the games i had played against him shows he

is

capable of more advanced thoughts than "thing bad" "thing good"). in hindsight i was probably collapsing context on him by just going through his iso for his attacks on people and not the trajectory

and when you say i was "trying to find things that looked bad", that's...just what scumhunting is? i go through what people say and look for things i find suspicious. if you're trying to say i was forcing a case, well, the problem is that i'm still not sure i necessarily understand what you think i was

missing

there - you can say the stuff i was pushing isn't AI but that doesn't really mean i should have been finding him towny as you seem to have implied

i'm not talking about just that 24 hour timespan, you started pushing it a while prior (~ the begining of the dunn event iirc? i don't remember exactly)

also maybe i phrased it badly, but 'trying to find things that looked bad' != scumhunting, or at least, that's not what i meant by it. i meant that it looked to me like you were looking at cakez' iso and reading it in the worst possible light, and usign that to push him, when there were other, more charitable, ways to read what he was doing that you chose to ignore
i also remember pointing out that you were pushing cakez for this specifically when there were like 3 other people doing the exact same thing (dwlee, gypyx, toog iirc), so it looked like you were picking and choosing who to push for that

like i said before it basically looked to me like you thought you had found osmething to push, and were just trying to take it as far as you could, when those weren't real/significant/ai reasons to scumread him

and his reaction to the big case you wrote was townie, yeah

In post 4837, petapan wrote:things being somewhat consensus-y, even among the people being left out, ought to be ringing alarm bells

i mean it kinda is, i did just say that i think i'm townreading scum somewhere
but i do think there's at least 1 in that group of 3

In post 3471, Toogeloo wrote:If I'm scum, Dunn shoots me with bullet 1 and gets instant town cred, something he doesn't get if he shoots me with bullet 1 and ainam town.

In post 3765, Toogeloo wrote:Dunn can't just shoot me with bullet 1. The bullet was chambered before any posts were made, and Dunn needs to come out of the event looking town. Shooting me with bullet one doesn't accomplish that.

In post 3768, Toogeloo wrote:

In post 3766, Dwlee99 wrote:

In post 3765, Toogeloo wrote:Dunn can't just shoot me with bullet 1. The bullet was chambered before any posts were made, and Dunn needs to come out of the event looking town. Shooting me with bullet one doesn't accomplish that.

Except now you'd be dead and we'd be arguing about whether or not Dunn got framed

I'm town, the only people who don't know that are other town. You have to at least entertain that possibility. Scum Dunn cannot shoot a town player with Bullet 1.

ah, i was thinking on it a while ago and it just came back to my mind - the mindset here seems a bit dissonant? toog says dunn would look bad shooting them right away when they flip town, but if they were scum dunn would just shoot them right away. doesn't really track logically

In post 4288, Ydrasse wrote:

In post 4286, Dwlee99 wrote:Plan: make scummiest 4 people go first. Send 8 remaining people we think are town through in a townie -> scummy -> townie ordering.

...

why not just send the four towniest people?

In post 4293, Ydrasse wrote:i dont think its much of a question that towniest 4 times should go thru

In post 4298, Ydrasse wrote:i ... dont think there's a way to cheese this tbh

In post 4302, Ydrasse wrote:like if we send three "moderately" towny people across and the fourth is killed, like, what do we do with that info? softclear someone who could be scum?

we send four ubertowny people across? scum just bumps one off

In post 4304, Ydrasse wrote:you could send 4 scummy people across and see if any get killed in case there's like 3 chad deepwolves or s/t but also, that just means youre potentially sending across 3 scum to survive

ragh

In post 4314, Ydrasse wrote:okay im going to suggest something to everyone

i have suggested this as scum in another game, but i want to know if people think there's merit in speedrunning this after a certain point, of like

hammering out votes to send people through to not let the stagehands have time to react of who is best kill

In post 4331, Ydrasse wrote:

In post 4328, ulyana wrote:

In post 4277, Morning Tweet wrote:If four successive town players reach the other side before scum make a kill, all scum die.

wait does this mean that if scum makes a kill at any point town can no longer trigger the four successive town players clause?

send four across (1 dies) + 4 more townies i think

I don't think scum goes through 3-4 different ideas about how to tackle this event in-thread and all the while discussing it with multiple players. I mean, scum is capable of this, but there's no player-driven agenda that accompanies with this, so there's nothing that directly associates her thought progression in a way that could be scum-motivated.

There's also a moment where she even mentions choosing crosses so quickly that scum cannot respond effectively, and that's a ballsy POV from scum that does not align with otherwise relaxed demeanor.

In post 4821, Gamma Emerald wrote:also the plan is still not entirely formed wrt whether we want more or less trusted folks to cross first
as clearly evidenced by you wanting ydrasse (your townread) voted across when me and dwlee are having talks that involve more suspected slots crossing first

I thought we were supposed to vote our most confident trs first. So, should I unvote them then?

In post 4844, Taly wrote:I don't think scum goes through 3-4 different ideas about how to tackle this event in-thread and all the while discussing it with multiple players. I mean, scum is capable of this, but there's no player-driven agenda that Ydra accompanies with this, so there's nothing that directly associates her thought progression in a way that could be scum-motivated.

There's also a moment where she even mentions choosing crosses so quickly that scum cannot respond effectively, and that's a ballsy POV from scum that does not align with Ydra's otherwise relaxed demeanor.

i think that would be utterly trivial for her to do

In post 4824, skitter30 wrote:harley toog
maybe gypyx

which i'm aware probably doesn't contain everyone but that's where i'm at rn

Hmmmm . . . if Skitter turns out to be scum, toog is very likely town from this.

because ...

In post 4844, Taly wrote:There's also a moment where she even mentions choosing crosses so quickly that scum cannot respond effectively, and that's a ballsy POV from scum that does not align with Ydra's otherwise relaxed demeanor.

in the same post she literally said scum-her had suggested something similar in a differnet game