ok, game still sucks but let's fucking write this out so Mark understands.
When N_M and Pine died, there were 8 people and 2 scum remaining.
3 of those people were confirmed town. Pine's flip and claimed connection (no it's not a "oh hey we both claimed the same thing" thing, they literally knew each others roles and were connected) confirmed Math as town.
Mastina and Nico were confirmed town.
Leaving the following people
LLD
Mark
Lovebird
Nahdia
Momo
Let's assume Mark is town for the sake of this conversation. So the scum are Lovebird and Momo.
If they kill Nahdia, they lose because of lack of mislynches.
If they kill Mark, they lose because of lack of mislynches.
If they kill me, they lose because of lack of mislynches.
Why?
Because if Mastina and Math are allowed to live to day 3, they get a free tracker, the get whatever Mastina's new power will be and they have to deal with a 3 man confirmed town block. One might argue "but it's technically possible to lynch both the remaining townies in a row to win.
Counter argument: it is easier to do that if there are more mislynchable targets in the town.
"But what about LLD's cop?"
Scum didn't know I was cop that night. I never hard claimed cop until day 3.
Additionally, if they do kill me and I flip town,
OnTheMark is unlynchable
, effectively.
There is just no situation in which the scum can kill outside the 3.
So, let's focus on the order of the 3 being killed.
The timing on why Mathdino was killed is obvious. Pine's role flipped as Even Day inventor, stands to reason Math's is Odd day.
Day 3 is an odd day, so Math dies that night. Prevents a power from being given, and eliminates the single more active and focused town leader.
Next, Mastina. I didn't actually notice the enabler was claimed, and I think it stands to reason that perhaps, after a Lovebird lynch that
McMenno didn't read that either
.
But even if we consider Mark, who knew about the enabler, it's still likely Mark would kill Mastina over Nico in this situation too.
Since there are no protective roles left that were claimed (Nahdia hadn't claimed at that point, so the bodyguard fear probably didn't cross scum's mind), it makes no difference in the role whether the power role or the enabler dies first.
So the kill will be based on play.
We could easily base it on reads, but there's just a simpler solution.
Mastina was the head of the duo and Nico was very much following what she said. Nico hadn't really played this game at all, wasn't posting, was only really following Mastina's reads. I suspect, perhaps, they talked a lot more in their Mason QT but to the public, Mastina was the new active conf. town leader.
So Mastina dies first, in every world. We can have the discussion about Mastina's reads if you want, Mark, but the truth is that I don't think he reads were that stable. I know for a fact that Mastina spent most of this game calling me town but also hedging on me saying "but I don't know how to read LLD, so grain of salt". I think she was similarly wishy washy on you and on Momo. I'll need to check that again, but the point is I don't think it matters. She is enough of a wildcard and her reads were the ones that Nico followed, so I suspect that scum killed her simply because she made the most sense.
So now we are down to 4 people:
Nico
LLD
Mark
McMenno
If Nico isn't killed, then scum goes into today with a confirmed townie, and I think that just strictly lowers their odds.
Does that make sense, Mark