Mini Normal 2163: MItGBSMoD [game over!]

[shellyc]

{Tayl0r Swift, PlusJOYED, osuka, innocentvillager, teacher, NDMath, Ydrasse} iv votes d1
I think plus/math voting together again is very indicative of scum partners
especially with {swift osuka iv teacher} all confirmed town, no way this wagon is all town

[PlusJOYED]

I gave it some more thought
the fact that no one claimed a pr today and based on setup and ndmaths reasoning he's very likely town
that leaves shelly/ydrasse

[shellyc]

joyed is this TMI that you’re actually partners with menal with the oversight of menalque here

also, it’s pretty clear that I basically cannot be partners with anyone here

[PlusJOYED]

mena is locktown for me since their iv interaction
if menal was anything other than vt ndmath would be sus

[shellyc]

@menal are you ready to make your claim yet? since you haven’t claimed

plus / math is the only thing I see now and im gonna tunnel this solve

[Menalque]

I was originally backup JK and since D3 I've been promoted. I didn't crumb but I can point to a couple of points in the game where I think my role was very clearly influencing my play.

I was on shelly last night, but I didn't want to out this earlier because it's not actually clearing as (1) still 2 scum and (2) if shelly isn't the role stopper then my JK could just have failed. I wanted to get math to talk more about the balance thing to see if he was using it to try to buy towncred or if it was valid and whether it fit with my presence here. I think it's possible that there could be a commuter, as in I don't think it locks him in as scum, but I think probably both scum need to be PRs for that to be the case.

The possibilities for scum teams that I was talking about earlier today are that it's either:

Shelly + plus -- in this case, they've realised they're in the two weakest positions and that there's a very real risk they get flipped back-to-back if they try to defend each other so they enter with a hard bus attempt for the cred. This is currently where I'm leaning.

Plus + math -- in this case, plus and math realise they're both in vulnerable positions so math fakeclaims commuter, plus forces a 1v1, and then either they win or if it's looking like it's going wrong math busses plus and then I guess no kills and uses that to support a "scum tried to kill me so I'm conf now, we need to kill shelly".

I think mechanically shelly is slightly less likely to be scum than plus -- if she is and she's paired with ydrasse or math, I struggle to see how their play makes a lot of sense for a rolestopper. Ydrasse specifically had the game going well for her D1 and then decided to draw attention onto herself as PR for ?? reasons. But I would like to reread around the hammer just to make sure my memory is correct. Math, likewise, probably doesn't claim ascetic D1 in his opening if he's scum PR? Like that seems like it only makes sense if he's a goon and is planning to try to get confirmed using the rolestopper. Shelly could still be the rolestopper, and I am somewhat paranoid of shelly+math bringing plus to here for the easy win given that I've been susp there practically all game.

I'm not really bothering to think too much about ydrasse+shelly, ydrasse+math, ydrasse+plus teams because I have limited time and by that point we're starting to get into the whole "teams I'd be okay losing to" territory anyway.

[Ydrasse]

whoever brought me into lylo face my wrath

i think that... it’s probably? shelly/plus but i am unsure, and i also think that flipping plus is the right move. but i am also high key scared i was brought into lylo for this moment. there have just been too many weird posts from plus, ones that are potshots that sound weirdly informed or as if they’re needling the town, weird votes, weird reads...

[Ydrasse]

i keep fixating shelly’s vote/push on kerset d1. i need to reread it but i wonder if she was bussing that early.

[Ydrasse]

i kiiiiiinda wanna just vote plus and get this over with if i’m wrong

[PlusJOYED]

I was originally backup JK and since D3 I've been promoted. I didn't crumb but I can point to a couple of points in the game where I think my role was very clearly influencing my play.

I was on shelly last night, but I didn't want to out this earlier because it's not actually clearing as (1) still 2 scum and (2) if shelly isn't the role stopper then my JK could just have failed. I wanted to get math to talk more about the balance thing to see if he was using it to try to buy towncred or if it was valid and whether it fit with my presence here. I think it's possible that there could be a commuter, as in I don't think it locks him in as scum, but I think probably both scum need to be PRs for that to be the case.

The possibilities for scum teams that I was talking about earlier today are that it's either:

Shelly + plus -- in this case, they've realised they're in the two weakest positions and that there's a very real risk they get flipped back-to-back if they try to defend each other so they enter with a hard bus attempt for the cred. This is currently where I'm leaning.

Plus + math -- in this case, plus and math realise they're both in vulnerable positions so math fakeclaims commuter, plus forces a 1v1, and then either they win or if it's looking like it's going wrong math busses plus and then I guess no kills and uses that to support a "scum tried to kill me so I'm conf now, we need to kill shelly".

I think mechanically shelly is slightly less likely to be scum than plus -- if she is and she's paired with ydrasse or math, I struggle to see how their play makes a lot of sense for a rolestopper. Ydrasse specifically had the game going well for her D1 and then decided to draw attention onto herself as PR for ?? reasons. But I would like to reread around the hammer just to make sure my memory is correct. Math, likewise, probably doesn't claim ascetic D1 in his opening if he's scum PR? Like that seems like it only makes sense if he's a goon and is planning to try to get confirmed using the rolestopper. Shelly could still be the rolestopper, and I am somewhat paranoid of shelly+math bringing plus to here for the easy win given that I've been susp there practically all game.

I'm not really bothering to think too much about ydrasse+shelly, ydrasse+math, ydrasse+plus teams because I have limited time and by that point we're starting to get into the whole "teams I'd be okay losing to" territory anyway.

woah

[PlusJOYED]

from a ndmath/shelly or ydrasse/shelly team, i think its less likely that shelly submits the kill after what andre said

[PlusJOYED]

i think at minimum for a mini there needs to be 6 vts
so far
saudade
iv
bob
osuka
me
ydrasse?
shellyc?

prs
teacher
andres
taylor
mena?
ndmath?
i think ndmath or mena has to be lying here, and I reckon its math since mena has been really townie this whole game and is townlocked for me
in that case, the play is to elim math, he flips mafia rolestopper

[PlusJOYED]

5 prs is way too much for a mini sooo
UNVOTE: shellyc
VOTE: ndmath

[PlusJOYED]

my final solve with menas claim is ndmath/shellyc

[Ydrasse]

i’m getting stressed about having votes on people can you guys unvote @_@

[PlusJOYED]

fine
UNVOTE: ndmath

[Ydrasse]

thanks.

no one hammered in you/shelly and i think it’s p confirmed one of you is scum but offroading out of you two is a disaster waiting to happen.

[PlusJOYED]

agreed
im not super hopeful tho since I've been in the TvS situations against shelly twice and i've lost both as town with me mislimed
shelly is good at convincing town where to vote

[Menalque]

I feel like one issue I’m having here that’s making it difficult to view this objectively is that if plus is scum and I’ve had him in my scumreads literally every single game day and then either been talked out of it or talked myself out of it... I’m just gonna feel incredibly stupid postgame

Whereas if shelly is scum and NOT scum /with/ plus but with math or ydra then, like, I’ll be kind of annoyed for not getting it right between the two but not so much

[Menalque]

But it’s shit like this that just makes no sense to me from either alignment but I’m gonna feel worse about then losing to that if shelly is town and my TR there was good and it is just math + plus

Like I don’t understand why you ever unvote there when the person should be conf!scum to you, especially when I don’t understand what happened to the possibility of shelly/ydrasse that you had before. Like has that completely evaporated? I would expect shelly being conf!scum to you would make you more concerned about that being right again vs less

But then equally, voting math also doesn’t make sense for scum!plus because it just looks so off in an optics sense and ugh

[Ydrasse]

i’ve been going about my business and the andres nk is giving me cold feet a bit. i’m unsure if shelly would do something that like... obvious or not.

on the other hand i wonder if plus is just trying to pick a different 1v1 with math? like if shelly is town and plus knows they can’t win that way they’d rather go the route of math -> shelly.

[Ydrasse]

andres please give me your strength from beyond the grave.

[Ydrasse]

ndmath please show up i would like to hear your Thoughts on plus voting you for a bit.

[PlusJOYED]

But it’s shit like this that just makes no sense to me from either alignment but I’m gonna feel worse about then losing to that if shelly is town and my TR there was good and it is just math + plus

Like I don’t understand why you ever unvote there when the person should be conf!scum to you, especially when I don’t understand what happened to the possibility of shelly/ydrasse that you had before. Like has that completely evaporated? I would expect shelly being conf!scum to you would make you more concerned about that being right again vs less

But then equally, voting math also doesn’t make sense for scum!plus because it just looks so off in an optics sense and ugh

you misunderstand mena
i still think ydrasse has played a scummy game, i think scummier than ndmath even
but there cannot be 5 town prs, and since you claimed backup jk, we had 3 pr flips, and you are locktown to me
so therefore commuter is fake
ndmath being shellys partner is just my poe, so therefore ydrasse has to be town
what i think would make the most sense from a scumteam pov is for shelly to be the rolestopper and ndmath claims ascetic/commuter while doing the nk most nights so they'll be immune to everything basically

[PlusJOYED]

if my above case is true, i think the ascetic/commuter fakeclaim makes sense 100%