In post 4862, VP Baltar wrote:Ok, so I spent a lot of time overnight reviewing the Galron wagon, the counter push onto me, and Malcom's elimination yesterday. I have shared this case with my hood already. Nero has called it garbage.
Given that both my wagon and Malcom's wagon were two town being pushed, I think the chaos of the Galron wagon and Yeet soft are highly likely to have thrown scum into a bit of confusion when they had a comfortable position of two town being run up.
I'm still thinking this through, so bear with me if this gets a little long winded. I'll put a tl;dr at the end.
The big takeaway here is that I think the scum team is probably Nero/Frogster/Dragons/????
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Phase 1: Galron wagon into Yeet soft
So this all starts around
4433 when fire off hand suggests a "flash wagon" on glaron. Math picks this up and runs with it
4440. This arises when Galron comes in and drops a vote on Malcom with little explanation, tipping the weight of the day toward Malcom. I would call these reasonable responses to Galron's vote.
We then get a series of votes from Cape, fire, tenebros and Enchant.
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I then join the Galron wagon because I wasn't super satisfied with the malcom wagon.
4457
Meanwhile, Nero is calling galron scum, but not willing to join the wagon for some reason.
44534455[pos]4456[/post]
4462
Yeet starts his soft in
4470 by saying "absolutely not on Galron." Nero pushes back. I pick up on the soft at the top of page 180, when Yeet says again he is "*staunchly opposed*" to Galron.
4475 The weirdness of the language was a dead giveaway that Yeet had some kind of info pointing to Galron town. We can see now from the NK that I was right.
I unvote in
4478, and we firmly enter Phase 2 of this wagon, which I'll call the scramble.
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Phase 2: The scramble
There is a lot of Yeet and myself trying to guide people gently away from the Galron wagon at this point without being anymore explicit than Yeet already has been.
Unfortunately, Math doesn't know what is going on and starts promoting a wild ass theory that Galron and me are scum together.
4499 This is key because the scum had been wanting me dead yesterday and this gives them the cover of a mason to come back at me. From my perspective, scum completely bungle this next part, however.
question I have during this time:
fire, can you tell me which post specifically you figured out that Yeet was softing?
Back to my main thoughts: DV comes in post
4525 to pump up Math. I'm very suspicious of people doing this at this time because I don't believe the scum team had picked up on the soft yet, and Math's theory is potentially pushing a new town lim, leaving Malcom/VP for a tasty D3 dueling town wagon again. It's a dream scum scenario.
Nero starts to fight with Yeet a little bit. I perceive this as Nero getting annoyed at the galron interference coming from yeet that Nero!scum doesn't quite understand yet.
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Nero says he'd like to vote Galron over Malcom, even though Nero has supported Malom wagon a bit in the past.
4550 Weirdly in this post, he says he wants to see where Frogster, DV, Titus, and dragons put their votes. DV has already said he's not leaving me. Titus also voted me. That leaves Nero signaling Frogster and Dragons.
Nero votes galron in
4588, even though he doesn't really give much reason and in his next post,
4599, he says "there's still enough votes to vote Malcolm out."
We get a bunch of April arguing against the Galron lim, and Math pushing his very bad theory, and then this is where the day truly gets interesting because Frogster returns.
In post
4623 Frog says he thinks "Galron is most likely to flip scum" out of the counterwagons to me. He hedges a bit saying Galron is a frequent miselim target, but clearly frog is expressing support for Math's point of view here. Again, I don't think scum have picked up on Yeet's softs yet, but the softs are becoming increasingly urgent at this point.
Dragons then appears in
4626 with a mostly naked vote, stating "this is better than Malcom". Yeet rightfully calls this out as scummy.
Fire starts to consider the softs in
4638 and unvotes.
THIS IS WHERE IT STARTS TO SLIP AWAY AS AN EASY DAY FOR SCUM
Frogster quotes Dragons' vote on Galron and says it is better than a malcom lim.
4640 Then he pumps up Math's dumb take again that VP and Yeet are the scum team trying to save Galron.
Nero says in
4642 that even if Gal is town, it's no big deal if they are limmed.
Frogster in
4645 again pumps up math and says that "VP Galron Yeet (April)" is a good solve.
(This point is key in a bit)
Yeet says in
4651 that he is willing to put his slot on the line that Galron is town. I confirmed overnight in the hood that this is the post that tips Nero off that Yeet is softing.
Cape calls yeet town, and dragons shades that in
4655. Frogster backs up dragons's shade in
4662. I believe this is scum trying to pull back the galron lim from the brink by looking for a final couple votes they can sway to power galron from E-2 to a lim.
This is their fatal error.
Nero is the first person to publicly out Yeet's soft in
4665. I pressed him on this overnight and he did not have any explanation on the protown motivation for doing this. He said basically it was obvious scum probably knew...which isn't an answer to make it a point of public discussion. This is most likely a rolefishing attempt.
Math says he doesn't believe Yeet has an actual innocent in
4668, which probably gives scum some hope that they can still get this done with Math for cover.
Nero comes in again at
4670 to call Gal scummy even though he knows about the Yeet soft. Frogster also reinforces this with
4672, but then frogster votes me in
4674.
Dragons tries to discredit Cape's townread of Yeet again in
4687. Math, being big brain, also joins in this discredit of yeet in
4689. Cape maybe shows some signs of uncertainty in
4691, and I think this is another fundamental point where the scum misread the table, thinking they still have a shot at galron.
Frogster now votes galron to E-1 in
4699. Two things worth pointing out in this post: Frogster says he is voting Galron because my wagon is not going to happen. And, he once again reinforces' Math's worldview that I must be scum with Galron.
It's also worth noting here that if my read is correct on Nero/Frog/Dragons, Frogster's vote onto Galron would put the three of them back-to-back-to-back on that wagon. A town flip of Galron is a potential death sentence to three out of four scum members who kind of have shitty votes onto the wagon.
Frog joins in on the effort to sway Cape away from a townread on Yeet in
4708. They need a hammer here bad. This is where we get into phase 3
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Phase 3: Damage control
It's my firm belief that these three realized they got in too deep here. I was actively bringing fire around to understanding Yeet is probably town here who has good reason to believe Galron is town. Fire has been a main person aligned with Nero/frog/tenebros against me. This is extremely bad for scum if I'm starting to have better dialogue with fire.
At the same time, Cape is not turning on Yeet. The number of people left to actually hammer Galron at this point is like...Titus. And she is not super keyed into the game yet/thinks Math is pretty far off base.
Dragons unvotes Galron in
4711 "just for a sec."
Titus then comes in
4714 and votes Malcom, which is essentially a death sentence for the Galron wagon.
Frogster next unvotes Galron in
4728. Keep in mind, frogster said he voted Galron in the first place because my wagon was no longer viable and because he didn't want to lim Malcom. Well, why unvote then? Nothing has fundamentally changed about my wagon at this point. It is not anymore viable than it was when he voted. There is only something like 20 minutes that pass between these votes.
The only thing that has changed is that the galron!town miselim ship has sailed because of Titus' vote.
Nero comes in right after in
4729 to say "yeet doesn't have an inno on gal." Another stupid miscalculation, probably meant to sway cape or Titus, but it's a misread of the game state. Scum are flailing here and unsure what to do.
Frogster calls galron "limbait" in post
4740...but who is using him as limbait? He boosted Math's idea just earlier that galron and VP were scum together, with Yeet and April as possible accomplices. This is
MINUTES AGO.
It makes no sense, unless you look at this as a failed push on galron that has gone very wrong.
Frogster in
4758 is making a case that my posts indicate Galron town...which does not make any sense. Read the posts he links. Also, I was calling Galron probably town based on Yeet. What is frogster even trying to say here? I don't know what kind of moon logic frogster is using, other than to try to make it look like there is an actual case against me now that the Galron push has shit the bed.
Then we get the usual crowd of Tene and Nero chiming in that I'm obviously the best lim for the day.
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Dragons naked votes me in this cluster fuck as well.
4766
Frog votes me again in
4770 even though he was already voting me. Was this to make it seem like more votes were coming my way than actually were? I cannot truly believe he wouldn't remember voting me just a few posts prior. This is theater.
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TL;DR
- Nero/dragons/Frogster all tried to use Math as cover to power through a Galron wagon yesterday, but misread the game state by missing Yeet's soft and by thinking they could still power the miselim through even after the soft was outted. I questioned Nero about his play around the soft overnight and he did not have logical explanations for his play and was continuing to state it is clearly because the scum team is VP-Yeet-Galron-????
Frogster should be the lim priority because even if you want to say I'm reaching by claiming these three are scum buddies, there are a lot of inconsistencies in Frogster's positions around Galron that don't make any sense with what he is saying his positions are over a very short period of time.
VOTE: Frogster 
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