The Resistance #2 - 5P Game

[BuJaber]

The point is gut at mission 5 is significantly more informed than gut at 2.

There are literally only 2 good scenarios for town on mission 2. Two sabotages or 0 sabotages.

In the scenario you describe yes I would look really bad but how will the spy among math/paradox win in that case if they faked a pass on mission 3? Mission 4 you pick them again. If it fails it likely points to math/paradox. Because what are the odds that the new guy in mission 2 and the new guy in mission 4 are the spies?
For mission 5 you then go with your gut and pick the town from math/paradox and go with your gut with regards to which 2 /3 new guys should go. You have a lot more information to go on there so your gut read would be stronger.

Or town wins if math/paradox are town and pick town on mission 2/mission 4.

If they fail mission 3 that's a lot more interesting but actually a lot easier to solve because you either have 2 spies communicating on mission 2 or you confirm that 2/ 3 are town.

But that is all irrelevant now because math is scum here. From math pov the only thing that is 100% wrong is for him not to go on the mission.

So why is he happy with this team?

Either icon is his partner
Or he threw shade in his partner paradox and now purposefully avoiding putting both scum in mission 2.

Based on his play I kinda doubt irrelephant is his partner. Doesn't make sense to not stick with his first choice for team. And they're too buddy-buddy.

So irrelephant would you agree to me/you/tgp or do you prefer me/you/icon?

[Mathdino]

yeah no

if i'm to go with a team without me there's no way i'm putting irrelephant on

either me and elephant both or neither of us at all

[Mathdino]

not gonna get bogged down in theory here

trying to get 2 spies to sabotage does work with 5p, and can clear 2 town instantly

as scum i wouldn't lie about that unless it benefited me strategically to fake trying to put 2 spies on the mission (i.e. i'm scum with one of those 3)

so while me wanting those 3 is consistent with me being a spy in itself

my play is still town, as is the fact that proposing this helps solve the game FMPOV

now on the other hand i could just bet the game entirely on elephant being town

[Mathdino]

like, bujaber, i get what you're saying here, but you're also taking a naive/surface-level approach to the game

0th level (VI)

: vote for whoever!
paradox once voted for 3 person teams without him on them on marathon weekend and got crucified. he wasn't thinking.
this is obviously not me, you know i don't do shit like that lol

1st level (surface)

: i must go on all missions and people who don't put themselves on missions are scum!
this is the classic way to play.
this is also a setup/way of playing i would consider scumsided without F2F tells.

2nd level (crazy idea guys)

: what if we put both spies on the mission and try to fish for double sabotage or double pass?
used to think this was crazy
then did it IRL
it works if and only if the spies have no clear hints to each other, which unfortunately they often do

anyway point is you're seeing me as a spy under 1st level play/thinking

i guess what i'm trying to say is

i'm playin fuckin 4D chess here

[BuJaber]

Even if that were true, I am fundamentally disagreeing with your strategy.

I absoluty agree that double sabotage or double fail is awesome for town.
BUT you are inflating the chances of us winning based on that. You have to multiply the % of winning if 2 spies go on mission 2 by the % of actually picking the correct 2 scum.

My approach is less risky and more consistent. I can honestly say I've played resistance probably more than a hundred maybe 200 times. Unfortunately my board game group have moved on to other games and we never really gave the variants and complex roles a chance except for one or two.

Anyway point is I think the low risk strategy is much more successful overall.

Also you supposedly wanting to put both spies in the mission still does't explain why you are not putting yourself in there.

[BuJaber]

I absoluty agree that double sabotage or double fail is awesome for town.

Double sabotage or double pass*

[Mathdino]

you can disagree, that's fine
if you end up voting for a team that you're on that you think is all town (due to scumreading me)
and i happen to think both spies are on it, i'll auto-hammer it
we can disagree on theory and still agree on the specific mission

the flaw right now is that you seem to be reading me based on setup spec that you disagree with.

i don't fake setup spec as scum. my sig is probably the funniest example of people scumreading me for suggesting "optimal strategies".

you may think that what i'm doing is pro-scum but that would make me wrong, not scum.

so what are you scumreading me for? do you think i'm aware my strategy is shit and i'm pushing something that will fail? or do you think that i'm just faking what town-me would propose in this situation?

if the former, you're reading surface level like i said. if the latter, then you need much more of a case to argue "mathdino is faking his towngame to a T and this makes him scum".

Also you supposedly wanting to put both spies in the mission still does't explain why you are not putting yourself in there.

think about this sentence and get back to me

[Iconeum]

I'm reading both Math and Buj as town in this conversation.
I have never considered actively trying to put 2 scum in a mission.

However, I think a 3-man mission of Math/Buj/Ico wins the game here.

[Mathdino]

sounds good!

VOTE: Mathdino, Irrelephant, Bujaber

[Mathdino]

VOTE: math,paradox,iconeum

wait no that's inconsistent
UNVOTE:

elephant solve bujaber/iconeum alignments for me pls

[BuJaber]

sounds good!

VOTE: Mathdino, Irrelephant, Bujaber

That's not what he proposed lol.

Not that I agree with either.

But what was wrong with that sentence?

And I think my case on you is a little more complex than you make it sound. Yes you probably do believe what you say but you might be saying it to imitate your town game. I haven't had the pleasure of seeing your scum game yet I don't think but you strike me as someone who pushes the same game-solving strategy spiel you do as town.
But your votes don't seem to be consistent with neither your strategy nor mine so I think it's anti-town.
You thought tgp was scum yet you didn't put him in your first vote today. And then you didn't put yourself in the mission when if you're town you could do that and still put 2 spies with you.

Let's focus on reasoning behind reads that's harder to fake as scum. Between icon/tgp who do you think is most likely spy and why.

[Mathdino]

that's great since I know i'm town and dino is probably town from that first post i'm gonna sheep that
VOTE: MD, TGP

paradox, this post is overexplainy and a bit LAMISTy
i assumed D1 that scum would jump at the chance for some juicy towncred

i get the sense that i'm gonna have to explain like every single thing i do lol

read between the linessss

[brassherald]

Vote Count 2.3

Mathdino, TheGoldenParadox, BuJaber(1)~

BuJaber

Not Voting (4)~

Irrelephant11, TheGoldenParadox, Iconeum, Mathdino

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2018-04-30 20:20:00).

[Iconeum]

If I got this right, Math and Buj are scumreading TGP for the same reasons I am: his opening to the game.
That leaves 1 more scum for you to decide between myself and Irrelephant.

VOTE: Iconeum, Math, Buj

[Iconeum]

And just to be clear: this is not a vote to find both scum directly, it's to get a second pass early on.

[Irrelephant11]

Fun, this game has developed

[Iconeum]

Fun, this game has developed

Indeed. The town core has been determined and scum are being cut from the mission.

[Irrelephant11]

i get the sense that i'm gonna have to explain like every single thing i do lol

read between the linessss

Nah I gotchu.

You thought tgp was scum yet you didn't put him in your first vote today.

False. 42

And then you didn't put yourself in the mission when if you're town you could do that and still put 2 spies with you.

I mean anyone who's saying "let's make a team that has two scum" is never going to include themselves in their suggested team? It's the obvious converse to how anyone who says "let's make a team with no scum" has to include themselves.

This doesn't even need to say anything about reads, just clearing up these points for BuJ

[Irrelephant11]

elephant solve bujaber/iconeum alignments for me pls

Working on it. I disagree with many of BuJ's points, obviously (and I've played resistance IRL dozens if not hundreds of times too, we can all be experts - especially since you can just lie if you're spy), but I'm unclear on if his bad reasoning is intentionally bad or just incidentally bad. He's trying hard, which is town, but always ends up pushing in a direction that, from my POV, is scummy. Probably I'd say BuJ is spy?

Ico scum reads me though so that's gonna make working together real hard if we need to.

Where is TGP tho. One post does not an alignment make.

Indeed. The town core has been determined and scum are being cut from the mission.

lol.

[brassherald]

TheGoldenParadox will be due for a prod in 5 hours

[Iconeum]

Irrelephant, there has been strategy discussion between Math and Buj.
How do you read both of them based on that discussion?

[Irrelephant11]

In the scenario you describe yes I would look really bad but how will the spy among math/paradox win in that case if they faked a pass on mission 3? Mission 4 you pick them again. If it fails it likely points to math/paradox. Because what are the odds that the new guy in mission 2 and the new guy in mission 4 are the spies?

I ran the numbers.

Spoiler:

Ruling out the possibility of two scum on either of the first two missions (since it seems that's part of your point here), and finding every other situation where two players go on the first four missions (and in which missions 2 and 4 fail), the random likelihood that "the new guy in mission 2 and the new guy in mission 4 are the spies" is 1/4. This is a random number, so it doesn't include the fact that scum in the know can WIFOM this to death. Even if we could be sure that it pointed to math/paradox, and also could be sure that the player who hadn't gone on a mission was scum, that's still just a 50/50 shot. Including the 3/4 chance of being sure, it's a 37.75/62.25 shot at winning. Including the possibility two scum went on a mission somewhere, it's near null.

Compare to getting two scum on mission 2 passing the mission and giving a town point: 30/70 shot at randomly winning

on mission 3

; or two scum on mission 2 both failing the mission: 67/33 shot at winning by the end.

I will repeat that town cannot focus exclusively on getting information out of missions. "Let's send those three to narrow things down" usually only eliminates 1/10 possible townteams while giving scum a point. Gut is the game, and town points are the goal.

So irrelephant would you agree to me/you/tgp or do you prefer me/you/icon?

I've made it pretty clear that I'm townreading Math. Unless your question is who do I think the scum team is in which case out of these choices I'd say you and TGP.

Irrelephant, there has been strategy discussion between Math and Buj.
How do you read both of them based on that discussion?

Before you asked this I'd already expressed I find Math to be resistance and BuJ more likely to be spy than resistance. Is there a reason you're asking me to repeat this?

Also, for what it's worth, I promise to do a scum!Math read through before the game day is done.

[BuJaber]

i get the sense that i'm gonna have to explain like every single thing i do lol

read between the linessss

Nah I gotchu.

You thought tgp was scum yet you didn't put him in your first vote today.

False. 42

And then you didn't put yourself in the mission when if you're town you could do that and still put 2 spies with you.

I mean anyone who's saying "let's make a team that has two scum" is never going to include themselves in their suggested team? It's the obvious converse to how anyone who says "let's make a team with no scum" has to include themselves.

This doesn't even need to say anything about reads, just clearing up these points for BuJ

Those points were meant for dino, he was last person to talk when I posted those. Sorry for the confusion.

2 things in response to you running the numbers:

A) like dino, you are not factoring in the odds of choosing 2 scum correctly after only one mission. And then the odds of them actually putting 2 sabotages/2 clears. 2 spies going in is very similar to the classic prisoner's dilemma. You may very well choose both scum for mission 2 and STILL end up with only 1 sabotage.

B) The actual process involved in trying to identify both spies now and after mission 4 is the same except that after mission 4 you have more to go on.
The difference is in the consequences. At mission 5 you get it wrong you lose or you insta win. At mission 2 you will be forced to question who to vote for at every following mission with no clear way of confirming anybody's alignment.

-Icon I wasn't the one scumreading tgp. I was just wondering if he makes sense as math's partner or if you do. Now I'm thinking it's just irrelephant.


VOTE: Buj, Icon, Paradox VOTE:

If it passes game over.

[BuJaber]

Eww
VOTE: buj, Icon and paradox

[Irrelephant11]

Those points were meant for dino, he was last person to talk when I posted those. Sorry for the confusion.

2 things in response to you running the numbers:

A) like dino, you are not factoring in the odds of choosing 2 scum correctly after only one mission. And then the odds of them actually putting 2 sabotages/2 clears. 2 spies going in is very similar to the classic prisoner's dilemma. You may very well choose both scum for mission 2 and STILL end up with only 1 sabotage.

B) The actual process involved in trying to identify both spies now and after mission 4 is the same except that after mission 4 you have more to go on.
The difference is in the consequences. At mission 5 you get it wrong you lose or you insta win. At mission 2 you will be forced to question who to vote for at every following mission with no clear way of confirming anybody's alignment.

-Icon I wasn't the one scumreading tgp. I was just wondering if he makes sense as math's partner or if you do. Now I'm thinking it's just irrelephant.


VOTE: Buj, Icon, Paradox VOTE:

If it passes game over.

I was responding on Math's behalf.

A)Straight up lie. I have

literally

factored in those odds.

One quick thought about putting up two scum as a strategy: While it doesn't guarantee a town point, it is easier to do than get all three town in a mission. There are 3/10 teams that include two spies, and only 1/10 that include no spies.

B)I know. At this point you're just saying "there's more information later than there is now". Yeah. But you haven't proved that your route of choosing teams is better than mine. You've also argued that TGP and Math need to go on the second mission, and now your vote is not agreeing with that, with little explanation given for your change in strategy. Obviously your vote is what you think is the resistance team, but why the switch from "this is the way to clear people" to "let's just vote who I feel is resistance", which was my strategy that you disliked?

Your last sentence is a scumslip.