Mini 780 - Chosen - Game over


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Post Post #500 (ISO) » Fri Jun 19, 2009 2:22 pm

Post by Incognito »

Vote Count #3 of Day 3


ekiM (2) <-~ Nuwen, Ojanen
Nuwen (1) <-~ Albert B. Rampage

Not voting (2) <-~ hp [leaves], ekiM

With 5 living, 3 will do it.

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[ooc][color=black]patrickgower2006 (8:12:03 PM): all beer tastes same to me
patrickgower2006 (8:12:07 PM): like dish water
If you see Patrick drinking dish water, please try and stop him. Friends don't let friends drink dish water.[/color][/ooc]
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Post Post #501 (ISO) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 2:20 am

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hp [leaves] has requested replacement. I'm looking.
[ooc][color=black]patrickgower2006 (8:12:03 PM): all beer tastes same to me
patrickgower2006 (8:12:07 PM): like dish water
If you see Patrick drinking dish water, please try and stop him. Friends don't let friends drink dish water.[/color][/ooc]
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Post Post #502 (ISO) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 7:07 am

Post by Incognito »

Lord Gurgi replaces hp [leaves] effective immediately. Thanks, LG!
[ooc][color=black]patrickgower2006 (8:12:03 PM): all beer tastes same to me
patrickgower2006 (8:12:07 PM): like dish water
If you see Patrick drinking dish water, please try and stop him. Friends don't let friends drink dish water.[/color][/ooc]
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Post Post #503 (ISO) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 9:54 am

Post by Lord Gurgi »

Hi, this is your Chosen checking in.

I am confused as to why people think Ace is town, since the defense for him seems to boil down to so-bad-he-must-be-town.

Especially since Ojanen has already set me up to be tomorrow's lynch. You don't make a multi-page case against someone then vote for someone else unless you want a case prepared ahead of time to bandwagon quickly with, which also makes me think that Mike is not the chosen one, since there's no reason for that sort of prep if he is. Thus I came to the conclusion that I am Chosen. :)

Thoughts on this?
(11:26:07 PM) thesheamuffin: I'm counting gurgi because I would probably make out with him if I were drunk enough
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Post Post #504 (ISO) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 10:06 am

Post by Lord Gurgi »

Lord Gurgi wrote:Especially since Ojanen has already set me up to be tomorrow's lynch. You don't make a multi-page case against someone then vote for someone else unless you want a case prepared ahead of time to bandwagon quickly with, which also makes me think that Mike is not the chosen one, since there's no reason for that sort of prep if he is. Thus I came to the conclusion that I am Chosen. :)
Meh, disregard this. I thought about it and the decoy thing is a bad call. I'm still going to operate under the assumption that I am Chosen, since hp is the last person I would expect to be vetoed.

The people I expect to have been vetoed are among Tajo, Claus, Nuwen, and ABR.

wI'd like everyone to tell me, ho do you think would be vetoed, and why aren't you trying to lynch that person? As it is, I think our best lynches lie in Nuwen and ABR. I suspect that they are either vanilla townies or scum. I highly doubt that they are Chosen.
(11:26:07 PM) thesheamuffin: I'm counting gurgi because I would probably make out with him if I were drunk enough
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Post Post #505 (ISO) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 10:28 am

Post by Ojanen »

Welcome Lord Gurgi.

Your first post tells me you didn't read the last pages or end of first day with thought.

I have expressed and conceive it to be practically
objectively
impossible for hp/your slot to be the chosen one if me or ABR are scum.
Why? On end of day 1 there was a prolongued opportunity for your slot to be hammered. The only currently living players who had that opportunity are ABR and Ace's slot=me. Both of us instead voted for the scum. Bussing your partner on day 1 in a game with 2 scum instead using your chance to hammer your lynchee near deadline, do you find this to be plausible scum behaviour?

Snipped:
LG wrote:You don't make a multi-page case against someone then vote for someone else unless you want a case prepared ahead of time to bandwagon quickly with
It was the post putting up my catch up thoughts; most of my specific notes were about hp since I do find him very scummy.
His interaction at the end of the day with lawrence does make him risky to lynch and less likely scum than judging solely from his own actions which is why I'm voting for the second possibility, ekiM.
(Also, this is semantical but "multi-page case" is a funny description of one post.)

LG, how high do you perceive Nuwen's chances of being the chosen one?
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Post Post #506 (ISO) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 10:47 am

Post by Lord Gurgi »

Yes, I realise that. That's why I said to ignore it. Sometimes I put together something badly reasoned to see how people react to it. I changed my mind.

Something you should know in the future, there are players who act erratically, these players are not the sort of players you should approach logically. ABR is one of these players. He is more or less a madman.

I think Nuwen's chances are pretty dismal. Depending on who the other scum is. Probably a safe lynch.
(11:26:07 PM) thesheamuffin: I'm counting gurgi because I would probably make out with him if I were drunk enough
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Post Post #507 (ISO) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 10:53 am

Post by Lord Gurgi »

Further, coming out of the gate in support of hp, ABR would get a load of attention for reversing his position into a hammer, and based on his reverse onto Lawrencealot, I'd say he's a good lynch too.
(11:26:07 PM) thesheamuffin: I'm counting gurgi because I would probably make out with him if I were drunk enough
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Post Post #508 (ISO) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 10:56 am

Post by Lord Gurgi »

Triple posting is fun, answer my second post since I know you read it already.
(11:26:07 PM) thesheamuffin: I'm counting gurgi because I would probably make out with him if I were drunk enough
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Post Post #509 (ISO) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 11:00 am

Post by Ojanen »

Lord Gurgi wrote:I'm still going to operate under the assumption that I am Chosen, since hp is the last person I would expect to be vetoed.
Just to clear up, you think everyone that hasn't probably been vetoed (in your opinion you, ekiM, me) should operate under that opinion if town? (Since chosen one was pulled out of four choices blindly and not actually, well, chosen.)
Lord Gurgi wrote: wI'd like everyone to tell me, ho do you think would be vetoed, and why aren't you trying to lynch that person? As it is, I think our best lynches lie in Nuwen and ABR. I suspect that they are either vanilla townies or scum. I highly doubt that they are Chosen.
My meta knowledge is limited, what I have does lead me to believe Nuwen could have been quite likely vetoed.
Why I'm not voting for her: she said already herself here:
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 99#1726199
Plus I do find the scum very much more likely to be ekiM or hp/LG than Nuwen/ABR.

My question at the end of last post was dated.
Do you highly doubt either ABR or Nuwen are chosen because of only veto probabilities or also because of what's happened in the game?
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Post Post #510 (ISO) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 11:03 am

Post by Ojanen »

God, I'm operating in hyper slow motion here. Fever does it. Should preview.
Any links or anything I could reference regards ABR madman meta?
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Post Post #511 (ISO) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 11:11 am

Post by Albert B. Rampage »

Lord Gurgi wrote:ABR is one of these players. He is more or less a madman.
These sorts of comments make rampage one sad boy.
Guard your honor. Let your reputation fall where it will. And outlive the bastards.
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Post Post #512 (ISO) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 11:30 am

Post by Albert B. Rampage »

Lord Gurgi
:
You're mad.

ABR
:
Thank goodness for that, cos if I wasn't this would probably never work.

Albert B. Rampage wrote:
Lawrencelot wrote:QFT lol. ABR once did the same thing against me in a game. He even claimed cop with a guilty on me while he wasn't even a cop just to get me lynched. It was so frustrating.
Yeah...and you were scum.
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Post Post #513 (ISO) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 11:40 am

Post by Lord Gurgi »

I'm not saying you aren't competent, ABR. I'm saying not only do you ignore the beat of our drum, you're doing the tango to techno-pop.

Veto probabilities are the main reason why.

Ojanen I don't think everyone should work under that assumption, or we'd never get anywhere. I just think that I am. I'd rather be wrong about being the Chosen than be wrong about not being the Chosen. One is distinctly more likely to lose the game for us.
(11:26:07 PM) thesheamuffin: I'm counting gurgi because I would probably make out with him if I were drunk enough
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Post Post #514 (ISO) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 11:47 am

Post by Albert B. Rampage »

Lord Gurgi wrote:I'm not saying you aren't competent, ABR. I'm saying not only do you ignore the beat of our drum, you're doing the tango to techno-pop.
I was somewhat offended by the "more or less", but I am over that now.
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Post Post #515 (ISO) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 11:48 am

Post by Ojanen »

Ojanen I don't think everyone should work under that assumption, or we'd never get anywhere. I just think that I am. I'd rather be wrong about being the Chosen than be wrong about not being the Chosen. One is distinctly more likely to lose the game for us.
I'm getting formulaic: you think you are the chosen one because of the course of the game+veto probabilities or mostly veto probabilities?
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Post Post #516 (ISO) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 11:59 am

Post by Incognito »

ekiM has been prodded.
[ooc][color=black]patrickgower2006 (8:12:03 PM): all beer tastes same to me
patrickgower2006 (8:12:07 PM): like dish water
If you see Patrick drinking dish water, please try and stop him. Friends don't let friends drink dish water.[/color][/ooc]
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Post Post #517 (ISO) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 12:20 pm

Post by Lord Gurgi »

Mostly veto probabilities and because I am cautious as I said before.
(11:26:07 PM) thesheamuffin: I'm counting gurgi because I would probably make out with him if I were drunk enough
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Post Post #518 (ISO) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 12:34 pm

Post by Nuwen »

Gurgigurgigurgigurgigurgi.

I prefer to base chosen speculations off of game actions - veto possibilities involve two steps of meta analysis: it's a prediction of how well x player is known to y, requiring us to base assumption off of assumption.

Lawrence's strong case on Ace/Ojanen makes me think he's the chosen. His hops on and off the wagon were obvious, and probably rationalized in his mind as the cost of lynching the Chosen. He jumped onto HP's wagon, but HP sat at L-1 while the following people were off his wagon:
springlullaby
, AceMarksman,
populartajo
, Albert B. Rampage.

I still support the lynch order of Mike -> Nuwen/ABR -> Nuwen/ABR.
So high, so low, so many things to know.
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Post Post #519 (ISO) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 12:48 pm

Post by Ojanen »

So:
LG wrote:Mostly veto probabilities and because I am cautious as I said before.
Lord Gurgi wrote: Ojanen I don't think everyone should work under that assumption, or we'd never get anywhere. I just think that I am. I'd rather be wrong about being the Chosen than be wrong about not being the Chosen. One is distinctly more likely to lose the game for us.

Your thought system:
1 you, me and ekiM are very likely not vetoed
=> thus equally likely chosen ones based on veto probabilities
2 You should be cautious, not others, because we'd never get anywhere otherwise. (the quote you were replying to specifically asked about me and ekiM)
You just think you're chosen, and this is still based mostly on veto probabilities, although mere probabilities give equal chance.

I totally don't see why the cautiousness only applies to you when looking at the axioms in your system.
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Post Post #520 (ISO) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 1:22 pm

Post by Lord Gurgi »

If I work under the assumption that I am probably not Chosen, I'd be self-voting right now.

Nuwen: Do you understand why that line of thinking screams that you're scum that wants Mike dead? Why can't we kill you first then Mike?
(11:26:07 PM) thesheamuffin: I'm counting gurgi because I would probably make out with him if I were drunk enough
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Post Post #521 (ISO) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 1:30 pm

Post by Nuwen »

You're free to lynch me before Mike (as long as you all do pledge to actually lynch him or ABR tomorrow).
So high, so low, so many things to know.
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Post Post #522 (ISO) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 1:31 pm

Post by Lord Gurgi »

That's fine by me. Do you have a preference?
(11:26:07 PM) thesheamuffin: I'm counting gurgi because I would probably make out with him if I were drunk enough
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Post Post #523 (ISO) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 1:38 pm

Post by Nuwen »

Mike first, definitely. He's a scum lynch. ABR or the vanilla among Ojanen/Gurgi will probably be eating the nightkill, should there be one.
So high, so low, so many things to know.
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Post Post #524 (ISO) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 1:54 pm

Post by Lord Gurgi »

Anyone have a problem with Nuwen lynch?
(11:26:07 PM) thesheamuffin: I'm counting gurgi because I would probably make out with him if I were drunk enough
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