Newbie 1378 - Game Over! (Town Wins)

[Linxie]

UNVOTE: Lucky2u

I'll explain properly before tomorrow/Friday night GMT. I'm currently rereading the thread and have a bad feeling. If we get this lynch wrong and scum kill tonight it's lylo for sure tomorrow.

[uctriton00]

I like reading early game things, because your first impression is always your faked impression. As the game goes on, you can adapt easily to the flow of the game, which is great for scum. As such, I didn't include anything the replacements said in this wall.

Let's look at the evidence. We have Nul dying as town, and to a certain extent RC dying as town (which is skewed because RC self hammered and didn't claim, which would have brought out a lot more tells).

In my personal experience as scum and others scum kills I have seen, you kill off townies who everyone confirms as a townie. As in, everyone loves them so much, that there is no point in keeping them around, and they're just there to ruin your ****.

An ISO of how each dealed with Nul:

Crazzygoat puts a vote on RC, and then takes it off RC. Post 106 is pretty much a giveaway that he saw him as a doctor, so unvotes him. There's no point in doing this as a scum; you want to kill them off. Crazzy's slot is clear.

JasonWazza has a prob town read on Nul. Not much interaction.

Lucky has Nul as a "town read but we're not friends", and Nul clearly went after Lucky. As long as Nul is alive, he's not letting Lucky live comfortably. In addition, Lucky was the first one to say that "well Nul died so now I'm the obvious suspect" on Day 2.

Mastin has Nul as a clear town read.

mattel didn't offer a read on Nul really, until I asked him about it.

Paradigm unfortunately gave us no discernable info.

Let's now go back to the evidence. Nul was nightkilled. This is how I imagine the conversation going:
Scum 1: who is the towniest person here?
Scum 2: Nul. Everyone is calling him town.
Scum 1: Let's kill him.

<i>Lucky and Mattel are the two who didn't offer hard town reads on Nul.</i> From their perspective, they are the two people who benefit the most from killing off Nul.

On Day 2 I started thinking RC was onto something, against Jason. But who are the next two people immediately on the wagon? Lucky and mattel.

Can I see scum in Lucky and mattel? Let's take a look at them:

- 242: mattel votes lucky when lucky was in a "flail" state. There is definite probable cause for a bus.
- 246: lucky points a finger at him, but won't vote mattel
- 497: lucky has softly claimed that myself, him, and mattel, as a townie group.

From all angles, it looks like Lucky and Mattel are a scum team.

Let's go to thinking about Jason. RC died, and there's no reason to not at least give an ear to his case against Jason. What's RC's case though? It's a LOT of omgus, and there's no proof in it. As such, my case against Jason is also a hunch. Gut, as we say.

Getting to the point:

Unvote

Hammering Lucky in my next post (he claims VT, there's no reason to) unless someone has something more insightful

/mic drop

[uctriton00]

..........

so Linxie just took off the L-1, gee thanks you're such a help

[uctriton00]

And just to be sure, can we get a vote count? Or can NS be here permanently as a backup mod? Come on man

[uctriton00]

sorry didn't mean to sound like a jerk in light of your real life issues, please don't modkill me

[Jackal711]

VOTE COUNT 2.1

Linxie (0) -
mattel (0) -
Lucky2u (2) - JasonWazza, mastin2
enomis (0) -
JasonWazza (2) - mattel, Lucky2u
uctriton00 (0) -
mastin2 (0) -

Not Voting: enomis, Linxie, uctriton00

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is Tuesday, June 25th at 10:45 am PDT or in

(expired on 2013-06-25 10:45:00)

[mastin2]

Vote: Jason

.

"Wait, what, reversal in reads?"

Yes, reversal in reads. Total reversal, in fact. Not sure who's scum with Jason, but Jason's scum.

[mastin2]

Actually, it might be Lucky. From the mouth of the scum himself,

i have a tendency to bus as scum, but no don't even think on that

Thoughts?

[Linxie]

Sorry Uct, I needed to reread the thread to check on a few suspicions before someone hammered. (check the timing of our posts... scary!)

I'm more sure of a Lucky/Mastin team than a Lucky/Mattel team now.

Town reads (strongest to weakest):
Jason
Enomis
Uct
Mattel

VOTE: Lucky2u

P-Edit: Smooth Mastin, but a mistake I think. Explain yourself.

[mastin2]

Another candidate is uctriton. If Jason's as fond of bussing as I think he is (I fully believe him), then if you look at the distancing between uct and Jason early-on, it'd make sense.

Also, uct unvotes Jason when he's at risk of being lynched.

Both of these combined might mean that uct's the other scum.

Anyway, if it wasn't clear already,
-Jason's scum.
-I'm convinced enomis is town.
-mattel is town.

That leaves Linxie, uct, and Lucky. I currently suspect uctriton more than Lucky, and Lucky more than Linxie. (Linxie is a null-leaning-town read.)

[Lucky2u]

Well this doesn't look good for me. ucrit, if you still intend to hammer, allow me my last reads to help town.

[Lucky2u]

wait... nevermind. recounted and ucrit would just put me back at L -1 right?

[mastin2]

wait... nevermind. recounted and ucrit would just put me back at L -1 right?

Correct, but you should still be giving us your thoughts anyway.

I have you as nullish-town at the moment, with more null than town. (Lixie is nullish-town with more town than null.) So your input would be helpful in solidifying my reads.

[Lucky2u]

Sure but your not going to like it... Following up this post with reads:

[Lucky2u]

I still favor Jason. My read as ucrit as cop has failed obviously or he wouldn't have been about to hammer me. I think maybe we don't even have one. Mattel said something that hinted at him being cop in his 470 but I don't want to rely on this anymore. Jason made alot of the mistakes he condemned me for on day 1 and his main argument lately is "I know I'm scum, that should be good enough for you". Until he changes this argument, I'm not unvoting him.

Mastin... you confused me with your switch to jason. Why wait until he was out of danger? Was this a scum bussing strat? I don't think so, the easier thing for scum to do would be let me die. All you had to do was let ucrit hammer me. I'm null on you now because of your unexpected play.

mattel is null leaning town for me. He has agreed with me but he is pretty bad at arguing his case. I think this is more a newb tell than a scum tell.

Linxie, nothing has changed. I'm still null confused on HIM (doing that on purpose now). HE was a replacement so I can't get a full read on HIM but HE is defending Jason and I don't like that. Still, I wouldn't say HE is jason's partner like mattel did.

Enomis is sitting back and watching. He isn't contributing, and he seems content to let me and jason drive our wagons against each other. Scum? maybe? idk what his behavior means.

ucrit. I share mastin's suspicion of your unvote on jason when he got in trouble. I don't like that you tried to hammer me, but that doesn't make you scum. You are new, so if Jason IS scum and you are his partner, it's easy to imagine a scenario where he took charge in the pregame and night phase planning and has been telling you to distance yourself from him so that you don't appear as buddies. You've not liked each other but you've never really threatened one another have you? You may have started the Jason wagon today with the intention of never letting it go all the way. I am probably reading too much into this though... leaning scum for ucrit.

[Lucky2u]

I forgot someone...

***INCOMING HUMOR!!! BEWARE! NOT TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY! (I told you I would use this warning... ***

Lucky is clearly the most town here. He is amazing and all of you should sheep behind him.

[Lucky2u]

correction: for some reason I thought ucrit was a newb slot but he is an SE slot. Still doesn't change my read.

[uctriton00]

It's mountain molehill time again.

"He unvoted Jason when he was at L-1? SCUMMMMM!"

I unvoted because I clearly said my vote is now going to Lucky.

[uctriton00]

Vote: Lucky2u

enomis now holds the hammer

[Lucky2u]

He holds it again you mean. The fact that he has held it for awhile now means something, but I don't know what.

[mattel]

We are going to be in trouble if we let jason get away. Please believe me that I know jason is scum.

[Lucky2u]

Your taking my leaning scum on you too hard ucrit. My reasoning is flawed for you, I admit it. So join us, lynch jason, and if he is town then you can lead the wagon on me tomorrow with a clean conscious that I sheeped you. Or you can keep against me and if you lynch me you will be in a bad position when I flip town.

[uctriton00]

Unvote

Vote: JasonWazza

[mattel]

So if we lynch a town tonight another will die in the night. Pretty sure scum has figured out who is the cop/tracker so he will definitely go in the night leaving vanilla townies to sort the rest. Will be tough for town to win but it can be done. Just hope the right decision is made here.

[Lucky2u]

Wow... we got our hammer, sweet. Now for the anticipation of the flip and the outrage of Jason.