That wasn't an easy day 1 lynch. Almost hit deadline.
Question is was innocentvillager scum desperate enough to see a lynch go through that he hammered, or was he just town hoping for a scum flip?
Question 2 is, who was scum on the wagon?
fiddlercrabontheroof
(5): ironstove, Harkonnen97, Transcend,
Skold
, innocentvillager
Posted: Wed Aug 17, 2016 3:47 am
by karnos
Do you think it's likely there was no scum on the wagon at all? Meaning both scum are among {karnos, Joushi, Enefpe no Time}?
I think the potential town cred of not being on the wagon is pretty much zero, while the gain to scum of getting an extra townie killed is rather significant, so my personal thinking is that scum were either already on the wagon or waiting and ready to hammer at the last minute.
You expect me to think a slot that's had 3 different players with 5 limes across all accounts was obvious town?
Posted: Wed Aug 17, 2016 3:51 am
by Transcend
Lines*
Posted: Wed Aug 17, 2016 4:28 am
by karnos
I'll trust you for now. I think Transcend is probably town.
But I prefer this lynch over IV:
VOTE: Harkonnen97
Posted: Wed Aug 17, 2016 4:30 am
by karnos
innocentvillager might well be scum, but one thing nags at me, is he could havbe just held off and let me hammer. Or if I didn't hammer, he could have the perfect case to push me as scum today.
He didn't have to hammer himself, and if he was scum he would have known the inevitable town flip would make his hammer look a little scummy. Why take the heat for that if he could instead sit back and let me hammer? I'm not saying he is clearly town, but that action does push him down a bit on my scum ratings, and hark's iso looks very scum to me.
Posted: Wed Aug 17, 2016 4:32 am
by karnos
VOTE: PenguinPower
Oops. Penguin replaced into the scum slot, that sucks.
Posted: Wed Aug 17, 2016 4:53 am
by innocentvillager
I'm a bit confused by that nightkill
Like seriously under what premise was sold killed
I feel scum would have ironstove or enefpe lol
Maybe they could've thought he was PR??
Someone shed an ounce of light on this game plz
Posted: Wed Aug 17, 2016 5:26 am
by ironstove
Yea the skold kill doesn't make sense. I would think someone like the PR claim (enefpe) or the person who is being town read by other players (arguably me) would be the best target.
Not sure how you guys are town reading me, because in other games I sign, I always get lynched LOL. Dumb town telling? IDK. With that said, my win rate on EM is abysmal as mafia, it's like <20%
Not completely sure. It's hard for me to get a read on him when I haven't been directly interacting. Give me a bit.
In post 509, karnos wrote:I think the potential town cred of not being on the wagon is pretty much zero, while the gain to scum of getting an extra townie killed is rather significant, so my personal thinking is
that scum were either already on the wagon or waiting and ready to hammer at the last minute.
Or declaring an intent to hammer, letting someone else take care of that for them, and then saying "Oops, looks like someone else got there first."
In post 515, karnos wrote:He didn't have to hammer himself, and if he was scum he would have known the inevitable town flip would make his hammer look a little scummy. Why take the heat for that if he could instead sit back and let me hammer? I'm not saying he is clearly town, but that action does push him down a bit on my scum ratings, and hark's iso looks very scum to me.
With the looming deadline, need to lynch, and it being D1, I'm not sure why the "inevitable town flip" would have made him look scummy...from what I can tell there was little to no participation around deadline and the village was resigned to the lynch. At worst it would have been NAI. His statement about not wanting to risk someone (you) not hammering in time feels like a proactive defense, though...kinda unnecessary.
Hark's ISO does look bad. Can't argue with that.
In post 516, karnos wrote:Oops. Penguin replaced into the scum slot, that sucks.
Yeah...I don't really care for Hark's play style, but he was scum in my first newbie game and he didn't play this aggressively. What's your case?
p-edit
Should we not be townreading you? At this point, I don't, but that's only because I have 20 pages to catch up on and no direct interaction with you.
Posted: Wed Aug 17, 2016 7:12 am
by Joushi
Welcome Penguins! I wonder why Hark chose to replace out, too many games at once?
In post 508, karnos wrote:Question is was innocentvillager scum desperate enough to see a lynch go through that he hammered, or was he just town hoping for a scum flip?
Question 2 is, who was scum on the wagon?
fiddlercrabontheroof
(5): ironstove, Harkonnen97, Transcend,
Skold
, innocentvillager
In post 509, karnos wrote:Do you think it's likely there was no scum on the wagon at all? Meaning both scum are among {karnos, Joushi, Enefpe no Time}?
I think the potential town cred of not being on the wagon is pretty much zero, while the gain to scum of getting an extra townie killed is rather significant, so my personal thinking is that scum were either already on the wagon or waiting and ready to hammer at the last minute.
Not being on the wagon I agree doesn't mean much, since the votes all happened fairly quickly after each other. That said, looking at who wasn't on the wagon leads me to believe that we had a 1/1 split. Enefpe really hasn't done anything to make him look more town to me, and the fact that he wasn't NK'd is pretty surprising to me. Number one scumread in my book. My earlier post on the Enefpe/Karnos scumteam looks all kinds of confbias to me now so I doubt his partner would be you.
Enefpe/Stove? Doubt it
Enefpe/Hark? Maybe
Enefpe/Transcend? Likely
Enefpe/IV? Maybe
In post 518, ironstove wrote:Yea the skold kill doesn't make sense. I would think someone like the PR claim (enefpe) or the person who is being town read by other players (arguably me) would be the best target.
Not sure how you guys are town reading me, because in other games I sign, I always get lynched LOL. Dumb town telling? IDK. With that said, my win rate on EM is abysmal as mafia, it's like <20%
I feel like both of you are overlooking a pretty obvious explanation, Enefpe wouldn't kill himself. You're also always asking why we're townreading you and it's starting to seem a little weird. Pretty sure I said this before, but for my hardest townread, it's like you're trying to get us to scumread you.
Posted: Wed Aug 17, 2016 11:15 am
by karnos
In post 520, Joushi wrote: Enefpe really hasn't done anything to make him look more town to me, and the fact that he wasn't NK'd is pretty surprising to me. Number one scumread in my book.
I really like this line of thinking. Like, he gave himself an out by not claiming a specific role, so like he might be bulletproof or something, but I think scum would have tested that and we wouldn't have seen a NK last night. That scum didn't even try to kill him is surprising.
Posted: Wed Aug 17, 2016 11:27 am
by ironstove
Is it possible that he is actually town (Whether or not he's PR is a different issue) but the scum decided to keep him alive in the hopes that we would lynch him because he looks like a suspect for not being dead?
Posted: Wed Aug 17, 2016 1:54 pm
by Joushi
I mean a lot of things are POSSIBLE. I've already made my opinion on appeals to WIFOM known though, it generally hurts town because it assumes perfect play and just makes everything a coinflip when it really isn't