Mafiascum.net

In post 500, Demainer wrote:Interactions don't seem rehearsed.

In post 504, Demainer wrote:What do you mean?

In post 423, Demainer wrote:who's the second scum, is it bell or ff hmm.............

In post 426, Demainer wrote:Why are you not on a team with Ivy?

(Before any complaints, I know it's loaded, it's the whole point)

In post 455, Demainer wrote:

In post 449, fferyllt wrote:I'm looking a lot harder at Lukewarm because if I'm right about Saudade and I'm right that there isn't an obvious partner for Ivy which decreases her scum equity, then Lukewarm is in the frame. If he's town, then I'm wrong about Ivy.

There's a missing piece of the puzzle if you're trying to figure out my reads. My Demainer townread has degraded and I'm considering him as scum.

Reading through Lukewarm's ISO, every stance and stance change is well telegraphed, and well thought out. And that alone actually pings on a non-surface level. Lukewarm is playing a cautious game. And that may be a personality thing but maybe not.

It reminds me a little of my first mafia game at MS. I drew scum in my first newbie. I had about 4 years of experience playing on other sites with much shorter game days, and I decided to play the game like I was a semi-experienced player who knew the lingo but had sort of naive ideas about scumhunting. My theories were solid (though not very imaginative) and my trajectories were flawlessly telegraphed. And the one big ping anyone mentioned the whole game was about a post I would have made as town without hesitation to deflect attention from an obvious PR. Anyway. That was a strategy I could only use once at MS and it worked great for that one game.

I don't usually look for "too perfect to be real" play in newbie games, but my other reads kind of force this issue.

The other possibility I entertained last night is that Demainer came into day 2 thinking that with 2 town deaths the scum team was somewhat exposed and mega-distancing was called for. This would explain how passive Ivy has been, maybe, if she's being bussed.

So, my theories are: {Demainer, Ivy}, {Demainer, Lukewarm} which leads to me voting Demainer today.

Barring PR data suggesting otherwise, I think Demainer has to be the elim tomorrow if y'all go elsewhere today.

There just has to be a conspiracy for everything.

I'm staying on ivy. ff pushing me and ivy w/w and luke as deepwolf reeks of desperation. It's literally the only way to justify not having ivy as the elim.

My guess is the scum team has a blocker and they can't risk having someone on the team die tonight. Not before they take out clasko.

In post 510, Demainer wrote:bellllllllllllllll where art thou

In post 512, Demainer wrote:Where's my vote? Or at least, where have I said my vote's going to be?

In post 514, Demainer wrote:There's a difference between reconsidering whether someone is scum, and outright claiming someone is a dw in a post that is markedly different from those before, and which clearly carries an agenda instead of genuinely sharing thoughts on things.

In post 495, fferyllt wrote:

In post 489, Lukewarm wrote: Do you think I was distancing? Do you think I would be able to walk back posts 325/326 at any point?

Do I think you could back away from this post?

In post 294, Lukewarm wrote:

In post 293, Saudade wrote:VOTE: demainer eeeewwgh

Seconded

VOTE: demainer

Your first post of day 2? Yes, I do, though I think inexperienced scum would be reluctant to bus like that. It's a strange thing about scum vs town votes. Scum tend to worry about what it will look like if they change their minds. Town just takes in the data, and if the data points them in a different direction, they change direction. I used to describe the difference as being hedgy vs being waffly.

Your vote isn't hedgy, and that's an argument against my solve.

In post 326, Lukewarm wrote:I'm not buying it. The more I read over all of the messages, and reread them, the more I am convincing myself that it is Demainer + Clasko. So I think it is going to take a power role giving me more information to go off of or a major slip up to change my mind at this point.

VOTE: Demainer

In post 507, Demainer wrote:I can see luke openwolfing if it's a goon pair game. Brave play, but possible.

In post 515, fferyllt wrote:

In post 512, Demainer wrote:Where's my vote? Or at least, where have I said my vote's going to be?

I'm not part of your solve? what the fuck have been doing all day?

In post 520, Lukewarm wrote:

In post 507, Demainer wrote:I can see luke openwolfing if it's a goon pair game. Brave play, but possible.

What does it mean to be "openwolfing"?

At this point, I am really most interested in getting Egix and Clasko's opinions. So hopefully they check in soon lol

In post 518, Lukewarm wrote:

In post 495, fferyllt wrote:

In post 489, Lukewarm wrote: Do you think I was distancing? Do you think I would be able to walk back posts 325/326 at any point?

Do I think you could back away from this post?

In post 294, Lukewarm wrote:

In post 293, Saudade wrote:VOTE: demainer eeeewwgh

Seconded

VOTE: demainer

Your first post of day 2? Yes, I do, though I think inexperienced scum would be reluctant to bus like that. It's a strange thing about scum vs town votes. Scum tend to worry about what it will look like if they change their minds. Town just takes in the data, and if the data points them in a different direction, they change direction. I used to describe the difference as being hedgy vs being waffly.

Your vote isn't hedgy, and that's an argument against my solve.

I asked if you thought I could walk back posts 325 and 326, you quoted back 294.

I meant this

In post 326, Lukewarm wrote:I'm not buying it. The more I read over all of the messages, and reread them, the more I am convincing myself that it is Demainer + Clasko. So I think it is going to take a power role giving me more information to go off of or a major slip up to change my mind at this point.

VOTE: Demainer

This is where the game state was when I made that post
Egix: Voted Ivy
Demainer: Voted Ivy
Endlessdark: No vote
Clasko: No vote
Ivy: No Vote
Saudede: Voted Demainer, but then had requested to be replaced. So where his replacement would go was uncertain.

Other then me, there was only one person voting against Demainer, and that person was getting ready to leave the game. If I were partnered with Demainer, why would have I have put so much effort in to building a case against him (Posts 325 and 326 if he were my partner? I mean I did a full iso of him, and pointed out

many, many

posts against him. Why would I have bussed him there?

I cannot come up with a reason, therefore I cannot understand your conclusion that me+demainer is the most likely scum pair in your PoV. It makes no sense to me from a town PoV.

But from a scum PoV, you could be trying to get Demainer voted out. He flips scum. You get to say "see I was right" and try to steer the conversation again tomorrow. Or alternatively, you fail to push out Demainer, and YOU get voted out. That leaves Demainer able to claim "see the scum tried really hard to push me out yesterday"

I cannot find a logical way for a town to make the conclusion that you made. I can come up with a logical explanation why a scum would push this particular pair. Therefore, I am left to conclude that you are scum.

In post 521, Demainer wrote:

In post 515, fferyllt wrote:

In post 512, Demainer wrote:Where's my vote? Or at least, where have I said my vote's going to be?

I'm not part of your solve? what the fuck have been doing all day?

Have I or have you?