Mafiascum.net

In post 4997, Human Sequencer wrote:I'm not so sure if this is entirely a joke or not, but it looks like MDS has no qualms leaving on Jester. If we can get MDS locked in as town, we can pretty well confirm Jester as town, because MDS can read Jester like a book and she clearly hasn't replaced out at this point.

Paranoia is a hell of a drug though.

Feel free to direct me to any posts of MDS you think I should read and want comment on, everybody, in the same vein as pieguyn did with that parama post ages ago.
I read so much better when I'm being reactive, I INVITE this we are a TEAM and it will be HELPFUL.

Jester: The Post
146
Comes out of the gate lookin' real shit lads, this looks like two scum distancing like holy shit, how did cerb flip town?
There is absolutely no logical thought behind this if it comes from town. townJester is making a stupid push over absolutely nothing. The only town motivation for this is if Jester legitimately believes what he's saying or is trying to generate more content in the early game (a ploy I love to pull) which wasn't needed at that point because everybody was hyperposting like shit. Scum motives could be distancing (or not lel) or maybe just... yknow there isn't really any scum motivation apart from distancing. It could otherwise be interpreted as trying to get a wagon started, but surely scumJester would be so much more careful of what he's saying? Would he make a double take and realize that what he's saying makes no fucking sense at all and will not amount to a wagon under any circumstances?
I came up with another town motivation too, he could very easily be trying to persuade Nahdia to refuse accepting that invitation to push his 'town don't pair with IC' agenda through a few logical leaps. Man, now I feel bad I ever scumread this post because the scumread falls apart after some simple logic.

Anger reads as genuine.

1088 1093
There is L I T E R A L L Y no scum motivation to do this apart from 'Townread me for pushing my partner!' which is pretty damn farfetched at this point in this context if you really think about it.

Interaction with HS that starts in 1109.
Really genuine. Scum don't like the spotlight on them, and the whole argument serves scumJester no purpose, unless he got pissed off that he was scumread which doesn't seem consistent with his personality. Much more likely to me is that townJester would get pissed off for being scumread.

1589
Notably against the shadow/mariar wagon.

2637
A little LAMIST, but he makes a good point. Scum motivation could be him trying to get towncred through pointing this out, but that falls through because Jester had posted earlier that phase and only mentioned this when asked to explain why he's town. Town motivation is literally just asking a question.

MDS/Jester is town.
Moving on to the next slot.

HS wrote:146
Comes out of the gate lookin' real shit lads, this looks like two scum distancing like holy shit, how did cerb flip town?
There is absolutely no logical thought behind this if it comes from town. townJester is making a stupid push over absolutely nothing. The only town motivation for this is if Jester legitimately believes what he's saying or is trying to generate more content in the early game (a ploy I love to pull) which wasn't needed at that point because everybody was hyperposting like shit. Scum motives could be distancing (or not lel) or maybe just... yknow there isn't really any scum motivation apart from distancing. It could otherwise be interpreted as trying to get a wagon started, but surely scumJester would be so much more careful of what he's saying? Would he make a double take and realize that what he's saying makes no fucking sense at all and will not amount to a wagon under any circumstances?
I came up with another town motivation too, he could very easily be trying to persuade Nahdia to refuse accepting that invitation to push his 'town don't pair with IC' agenda through a few logical leaps. Man, now I feel bad I ever scumread this post because the scumread falls apart after some simple logic.

Add to this that there is actually no way to start a wagon at this point because it's pre-dance.
This post is a smoking gun. With cerb as town there's no way scumJester would post this. I don't buy for a second scumJester is thinking far enough ahead and on a deep enough logical level to think about what other people think her intention behind this post is in the happenstance that cerb flips town. No fucking way.

HS: The Post
im town trust me dont taze me bro

In post 5001, Human Sequencer wrote: 2637
A little LAMIST, but he makes a good point. Scum motivation could be him trying to get towncred through pointing this out, but that falls through because Jester had posted earlier that phase and only mentioned this when asked to explain why he's town. Town motivation is literally just

answering

a question.

oops

thought about it a bit more, and Kagami, do you see any universe where your pair and Parama/HS are both town?

if not, then I think we might as well just lynch Parama today, then if they're town/town then we must be in the SAD/{Jester, MDS}/Dunn universe.

barring one of those pairs being scum/scum, but key point is that we'd at least have my pair locked as town.

in terms of specific teams, I think it isn't SAD/Jester/mhsmith, since Kagami, and I don't think it's SAD/jester/Parama because I don't think Jester just goes and puts both his buddies in his strong town reads.

and I have no fucking clue how this game works since besides {Dunn, Parama, and mhsmith} everyone either looks really fucking town or has a bunch of people who knows his play claiming he's town, so obviously I'm either going wrong on a town read somewhere or everyone is collectively wrong about Jester.

Pie please tell me how 146 comes from anything, anything, anything other than town and how
Other speculation irrelevant I just think clearing Jester as town for you will help you solve the rest of the game

Would you agree that if Jester is town then Dunn is also town? I don't see scum!Dunn planning around a town/town pair for endgame. It would be super next level even for him.

If you all agree on that, I'm happy to suicide now. It would give us a town/town pair in Dunn/Kagami, or worst case scenario it would remove scum. That's assuming Kagami is town, which I now think she is.

If that one post cannot come from scum then Jester cannot be scum
Break it down into a lot of little pieces and apply simple logic instead of overthinking the situation
Occams razor yadda yadda something something Jester is town

MDS, do not suicide. You are a town/town pair and would be gamethrowing.

I'm aware I could be wrong but please tell me how. I need to hear if I'm wrong. I need your perspective.

Halfway through the stunning sequel to HS: The Post entitled Parama: The Post

Human is taking a shower and will be back shortly~

Working from home today, so kiddies preventing much posting.

I maintain that you're giving smith a free pass for no good reason, pie. Could you spend 30m at some point looking at his interactions with the current lead scumspects -- {SAD, Jester, Parama}?

@HS: Dunn being scum with jester doesn't makes sense to me primarily because jester put ME as the scummo in our pair, where making the accurate read on our pair would be much, much safer (and I doubt jester-scum would be making a high-friction play given his expected involvement). Dunn-scum requesting they be the T-T survivors when they're actually T-T doesn't seem terribly unlikely to me, since he'd expect to flip soon.

Back
It's worth noting that Jester and MDS both read as town independently of each other and also both townread each other. This is a town/town pair. Lynch everybody else and we win. Still working on Parama: The Post.

Human, we actually talked about Jester's 146 in our PT. Paraphrasing with context:



That was on Dec 5, around 11 am GMT.

I don't think 146 is much different from any "Found the first scum" post, why is it town?

^@MDS This post also cannot come from scum. There is no scum motivation for this post unless MDS/Jester are scum together which is -not- true. MDS cannot lie about this with Jester as town in thread, otherwise they are a powerlynch.

@Kagami
There is no scum motivation for it whatsoever, and a few legitimate town motivations. I covered this in Jester: The Post. If you disagree with my logic, please cite it and tell me why.

In post 5008, Human Sequencer wrote:Pie please tell me how 146 comes from anything, anything, anything other than town and how
Other speculation irrelevant I just think clearing Jester as town for you will help you solve the rest of the game

that post is terrible. it shows no critical thought whatsoever and reads to me like he felt like he had to come up with a push early game and didn't realize how completely terrible his push was.

the entire rest of Jester's play reads the same way to me and it's why I wish I had lynched him D1. his play here is so completely shit if he's town that it was really necessary to get him out of the way yesterday so I wouldn't have to bother considering that someone could potentially play this awfully and actually be town.

In post 5009, MiniDeathStar wrote:Would you agree that if Jester is town then Dunn is also town? I don't see scum!Dunn planning around a town/town pair for endgame. It would be super next level even for him.

If you all agree on that, I'm happy to suicide now. It would give us a town/town pair in Dunn/Kagami, or worst case scenario it would remove scum. That's assuming Kagami is town, which I now think she is.

I don't agree with Dunn being town, so probably not.

In post 5013, Kagami wrote:I maintain that you're giving smith a free pass for no good reason, pie. Could you spend 30m at some point looking at his interactions with the current lead scumspects -- {SAD, Jester, Parama}?

I already hold a pretty firm belief that if Jester is scum, mhsmith's defense of him is very suspect. I also hold a pretty firm belief that various things mhsmith and Parama have done over the course of the game day are indicative of a scum team without Dunn on it who doesn't want SAD to become the town pair post-your flip. I'll take a closer look at the SAD and Parama interactions.

besides that, I don't agree with Dunn being town, and Dunn and mhsmith aren't both scum, so I've mostly just not been focusing on him because Dunn has been higher priority for me (if Dunn were to flip town I'd want my pair gone, probably).

The scum motivation is to appear to be scumhunting. The town motivation is also to appear to be scumhunting. I don't really think there's any other meaningful interpretation to that, and I doubt it's a next level "I'm going to go out on a limb as town to bait some kind of trap / generate content," like you're suggesting. In that case, he'd have likely commented more on the whole shadow scum-slip craziness instead of just bailing on the thread.

In post 5018, pieguyn wrote:

In post 5008, Human Sequencer wrote:Pie please tell me how 146 comes from anything, anything, anything other than town and how
Other speculation irrelevant I just think clearing Jester as town for you will help you solve the rest of the game

that post is terrible. it shows no critical thought whatsoever and reads to me like he felt like he had to come up with a push early game and didn't realize how completely terrible his push was.

the entire rest of Jester's play reads the same way to me and it's why I wish I had lynched him D1. his play here is so completely shit if he's town that it was really necessary to get him out of the way yesterday so I wouldn't have to bother considering that someone could potentially play this awfully and actually be town.

Yes, it is horrible. Absolutely atrocious But your analysis that town cannot play that badly as town is unfounded. There is no limit to how badly somebody can play as town. It doesn't discredit his towniness at all.
Why would scumJester feel the need to come up with that push early game? How does that further his win condition at all, considering that he couldn't even start a wagon at that point in the game because it was still pre-dance? Keep in mind that after dance started (as soon as people are able to lynch) Jester began to townread Cerb and completely stopped pushing Cerb.

Kagami and I are saying the same thing in different words: he felt like he had to come up with some push he could make early game in order to appear like he was scum hunting, but didn't realize how forced it was.

In post 5019, Kagami wrote:The scum motivation is to appear to be scumhunting. The town motivation is also to appear to be scumhunting. I don't really think there's any other meaningful interpretation to that, and I doubt it's a next level "I'm going to go out on a limb as town to bait some kind of trap / generate content," like you're suggesting. In that case, he'd have likely commented more on the whole shadow scum-slip craziness instead of just bailing on the thread.

We have established that Jester is a terrible player. For more proof, refer to Equilibrium Mafia on my wiki, or his play otherwise in this game. It is horrible regardless of alignment. Do still you believe he wrote that post simply to 'appear like he's scumhunting'? If he's thinking on that level, two things are true.
1. He is thinking on a level beyond what we have established his skill to be.
2. He would realize precisely how bullshit his push really is.

If you assume 1 to be true, that he is thinking on that deeper level, you must also assume 2 to be true because it's blatantly obvious how bullshit that post is.

Regardless of his alignment, he did not realize how silly the post was. If he is town, he thought it was a reasonable read. If he is scum, he thought his town-self would have made a read like that.

like the thing which I'm completely scared of is that if mhsmith is town and I'm no longer around to push Dunn, he'll find some bullshit reason to get town read and convince everyone you two are a town/town pair and go on to win the game.

and you don't seem to find a lot of what I'm writing about him compelling, which scares me because his play doesn't look town at all and there are a *lot* of scenarios where Dunn makes sense as scum (hell he works with *every other pair* being the other town pair) and I have no fucking clue why people want to universally town read him besides "he's posting a lot and sounding good" and I feel scared because if I'm right I don't know if I can rely on you to do anything, but at the same time if I'm wrong I wouldn't be able to live with myself if you were to follow my read and have it lose the game.

and all of this makes me feel even more awful that I didn't lynch jester D1.