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Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:47 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
In post 5019, skitter30 wrote:i'm gonna quote a mastina adage: scum like to try to make the possible ~probable~
like techincally scum!tw could have been informed of loverless!dats and known about the mfd and come up with that exact fake-claim
is it probable tho? not really
I don't think scum!TW knew about loverless dats
I think that was a stroke of luck for TW.
However there was no downside for him to add Neighborless to his BG claim, or the only BG in the safeclaim games they were dealt was a BG Neighbor.
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:48 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
TW knew he needed a good claim if you conf-towned yourself
he couldn't kill you because if you flip green he's likely to get pushed D2 so the line he played was to claim BG as its a role thats unlikely to be pushed
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:51 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
well you and I were both trying to get me lynched and I tried to defend dsj as best as I could but I failed.
You really should think about why TW wanted DSJ lynched instead of me - that play really makes no sense from his POV if TW is town tpr.
because from TW's POV
1) If 3 TPR is unlikely - then he knows Pooky is scum far more likely scenario than DSJ->scum
2) Pooky flipping red makes TW green basically guranteed since the game is unlikely to be balanced with 1 TPR
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:52 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
i think the reason why TW/DSJ both ended up wanting DSJ lynched over Pooky was because they knew Pooky flipping green would mechanically make TW's position in the lylo much much weaker and make it harder to lynch DSJ as the other mislynch since Pooky defended dsj.
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:03 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:13 am
by skitter30
In post 5025, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:However there was no downside for him to add Neighborless to his BG claim, or the only BG in the safeclaim games they were dealt was a BG Neighbor.
i think it's a really risky claim to make out of the blue, without knowing that there's a similarly pairless paired role in the game
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:27 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
if there's no other pairless paired role in the game, does neighborless neighbor look more scummy? I don't see why it would - the moderator is selecting games at random - if he selects a game with all paired roles, by definition there would be a pairless pair in this game.
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:29 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
like Datisi's point about 2 pairless paired roles in this game feeling "poetic" isn't really mech in nature ?
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:30 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
In post 5020, Datisi wrote:(2) what if there were actual neighbours in the game??? tw fakeclaims neighbours then??? how does he talk himself out of being a neighbour in no hood??
like this point here.
If there was actually a neighbor role in this game, it would really have no bearing on TW's neighbor BG claim would it? Like 2 neighbors pulled from 2 different games wouldn't be automatically put into the same "hood" that doesn't make much sense mechanically at all.
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:05 am
by Datisi
In post 5027, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:because from TW's POV
1) If 3 TPR is unlikely - then he knows Pooky is scum far more likely scenario than DSJ->scum
2) Pooky flipping red makes TW green basically guranteed since the game is unlikely to be balanced with 1 TPR
and is this not the same from your POV...? and even moreso, because you apparently read dsjstr correctly? wouldn't have it made more sense to push tw since the red flip there basically conftowns you?
In post 5031, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:if there's no other pairless paired role in the game, does neighborless neighbor look more scummy? I don't see why it would - the moderator is selecting games at random - if he selects a game with all paired roles, by definition there would be a pairless pair in this game.
but this is the case with me, not with duck... his game had "normal" "unpaired" roles... like if i was the only claimed unpaired pair role sure, but if he was then you wouldn't be able to make that argument...
In post 5033, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote: In post 5020, Datisi wrote:(2) what if there were actual neighbours in the game??? tw fakeclaims neighbours then??? how does he talk himself out of being a neighbour in no hood??
like this point here.
If there was actually a neighbor role in this game, it would really have no bearing on TW's neighbor BG claim would it? Like 2 neighbors pulled from 2 different games wouldn't be automatically put into the same "hood" that doesn't make much sense mechanically at all.
this just feels like, really really disingenuous
"the only two neighbours in the game wouldn't necessarily be put in the same hood"
like
ughhhhh
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:13 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
ok let's ask the moderator then
@Micc
if there are two or more neighbors in the game picked up from different Micros, would they be put into the same "hood" ?
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:17 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
In post 5034, Datisi wrote:and is this not the same from your POV...? and even moreso, because you apparently read dsjstr correctly? wouldn't have it made more sense to push tw since the red flip there basically conftowns you?
well I wanted myself to be lynched. I wasn't completely sure if TW was town or scum but I was going to give him the night to prove himself by giving him the chance to protect skitter - that's why my proposal for self-lynch included this:
In post 3476, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:lets say i am lynched today.
assuming tw dies in the night and flips bg and someone else confirms skitter as FM tommorrow, then I think the scum would be SS/Raven in the endgame.
if tw doesnt die and skitter dies- I think there is a strong chance tw/SS are the scum.
if datisi dies and tw lives - I also think it would be tw/SS as scum but this is the hardest scenario imo.
From TW's POV he should've also wanted me to be lynched in order to show that he is definitely green.
If the actual belief is that there should only be 2 TPRs to balance the game, then it should make sense for TW to push me as D2 lynch - not DSJ
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:18 am
by Datisi
sigh. the actual answer to that doesn't actually... matter? it's a theme game.
my point is that i think it's fairly intuitive to conclude "hey if there are two neighbours in this game, they are going to be put in the hood together" and the fact that you're arguing that that's actually mechanically counterintuitive just feels... bad faith.
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:20 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
In post 5034, Datisi wrote:but this is the case with me, not with duck... his game had "normal" "unpaired" roles... like if i was the only claimed unpaired pair role sure, but if he was then you wouldn't be able to make that argument...
look you know the scum have roughly 7 games to make their fakeclaims from according to the last YoM - and you know TW is doing a TPR claim to protect himself when skitter conf-towns on D2 so he doesn't get pushed. If the best TPR to fake-claim in those 7 scum-games is a Neighbor Bodyguard, why wouldn't he do it? They have the MfD to give him an out when he fails to protect..
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:22 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
In post 5037, Datisi wrote:sigh. the actual answer to that doesn't actually... matter? it's a theme game.
my point is that i think it's fairly intuitive to conclude "hey if there are two neighbours in this game, they are going to be put in the hood together" and the fact that you're arguing that that's actually mechanically counterintuitive just feels... bad faith.
I don't know mechanics that well, I literally just started playing contemporary forum mafia a few months ago - my confusion about whether neighbors would be put in the same neighborhood is not some bad faith bs.
and if TW was making a fake-claim as BG neighbor do you really think he wouldn't ask the moderator this question in private?
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:22 am
by Datisi
In post 5036, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote: In post 5034, Datisi wrote:and is this not the same from your POV...? and even moreso, because you apparently read dsjstr correctly? wouldn't have it made more sense to push tw since the red flip there basically conftowns you?
well I wanted myself to be lynched. I wasn't completely sure if TW was town or scum but I was going to give him the night to prove himself by giving him the chance to protect skitter - that's why my proposal for self-lynch included this:
In post 3476, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:lets say i am lynched today.
assuming tw dies in the night and flips bg and someone else confirms skitter as FM tommorrow, then I think the scum would be SS/Raven in the endgame.
if tw doesnt die and skitter dies- I think there is a strong chance tw/SS are the scum.
if datisi dies and tw lives - I also think it would be tw/SS as scum but this is the hardest scenario imo.
From TW's POV he should've also wanted me to be lynched in order to show that he is definitely green.
If the actual belief is that there should only be 2 TPRs to balance the game, then it should make sense for TW to push me as D2 lynch - not DSJ
but... scum!tw actually gains much much more by having you executed day two instead of pushing dsjstr?
because he can still mark skitter (therefore has an excuse why the bodyguard ability didn't get used) and someone like you who's pushing him is dead and also i look way way worse upon your green flip AND dsjstr is still there in the day three lylo and also raven who's dead tunnelled on him is there and...
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:24 am
by Datisi
In post 5038, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote: In post 5034, Datisi wrote:but this is the case with me, not with duck... his game had "normal" "unpaired" roles... like if i was the only claimed unpaired pair role sure, but if he was then you wouldn't be able to make that argument...
look you know the scum have roughly 7 games to make their fakeclaims from according to the last YoM - and you know TW is doing a TPR claim to protect himself when skitter conf-towns on D2 so he doesn't get pushed. If the best TPR to fake-claim in those 7 scum-games is a Neighbor Bodyguard, why wouldn't he do it? They have the MfD to give him an out when he fails to protect..
ok but that's not what we were talking about? you were arguing that "if he claims an unpaired role from a game full of unpaired roles then it's not necessarily scummy" and i said that's not the case because 930 wasn't that setup so why are you turning the conversation over to this now?
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:25 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
In post 5040, Datisi wrote:but... scum!tw actually gains much much more by having you executed day two instead of pushing dsjstr?
because he can still mark skitter (therefore has an excuse why the bodyguard ability didn't get used) and someone like you who's pushing him is dead and also i look way way worse upon your green flip AND dsjstr is still there in the day three lylo and also raven who's dead tunnelled on him is there and...
no because my dying case is that TW/SS are the 2 scum if TW doesn't successfully protect skitter.
you know my opinions are coming from a town person because I flip green and I feel strongly enough about them to die to verify them.
Also having me flip green TPR makes his TPR claim much much weaker and SS then can't say that the existence of a MFD means BG HAS to exist because there would literally be a flipped green bomb role in the dead pile.
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:26 am
by Datisi
In post 5039, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote: In post 5037, Datisi wrote:sigh. the actual answer to that doesn't actually... matter? it's a theme game.
my point is that i think it's fairly intuitive to conclude "hey if there are two neighbours in this game, they are going to be put in the hood together" and the fact that you're arguing that that's actually mechanically counterintuitive just feels... bad faith.
I don't know mechanics that well, I literally just started playing contemporary forum mafia a few months ago - my confusion about whether neighbors would be put in the same neighborhood is not some bad faith bs.
and if TW was making a fake-claim as BG neighbor do you really think he wouldn't ask the moderator this question in private?
he probably would? i don't know?
but like... the solve two neighbours in the game, not being put in the same hood...
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:26 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
In post 5041, Datisi wrote:ok but that's not what we were talking about? you were arguing that "if he claims an unpaired role from a game full of unpaired roles then it's not necessarily scummy" and i said that's not the case because 930 wasn't that setup so why are you turning the conversation over to this now?
I think you misunderstand my original point about unpaired roles existing in this game.
like I'm saying that the moderator can put any number of unpaired roles into the game - but the existence of 1 unpaired role does not imply the existence of other unpaired roles...
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:28 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
In post 5043, Datisi wrote:he probably would? i don't know?
but like... the solve two neighbours in the game, not being put in the same hood...
Ok so if TW asks the moderator this question, "would neighbors from different games be put into the same hood"
and the moderator response was "no"
then there really is no risk for TW to claim Neighbor BG right?
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:28 am
by Datisi
In post 5042, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote: In post 5040, Datisi wrote:but... scum!tw actually gains much much more by having you executed day two instead of pushing dsjstr?
because he can still mark skitter (therefore has an excuse why the bodyguard ability didn't get used) and someone like you who's pushing him is dead and also i look way way worse upon your green flip AND dsjstr is still there in the day three lylo and also raven who's dead tunnelled on him is there and...
no because my dying case is that TW/SS are the 2 scum if TW doesn't successfully protect skitter.
you know my opinions are coming from a town person because I flip green and I feel strongly enough about them to die to verify them.
Also having me flip green TPR makes his TPR claim much much weaker and SS then can't say that the existence of a MFD means BG HAS to exist because there would literally be a flipped green bomb role in the dead pile.
and aldus's dying case is that you're scum, and aldus flipped green, what's your point?
it makes it "weaker", but not impossible. we wouldn't know the full setup. besides the distractions of "town!datisi's biggest shit tunnel in the game just flipped green" *and* "town!raven is mad tunnelled on town!dsjstr" is still there. coupled with panic in lylo. like...
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:31 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
My point is that if the town believes that 3 TPR is too much for this game and there should only be 2 TPR then me flipping green TPR makes TW look pretty bad in the lylo no?
and you death-tunneling me from D1 and me flipping green doesn't make you look worse imo because it doesn't make much sense for scum to go full death-tunnel on a town player in D1
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:32 am
by Datisi
In post 5045, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote: In post 5043, Datisi wrote:he probably would? i don't know?
but like... the solve two neighbours in the game, not being put in the same hood...
Ok so if TW asks the moderator this question, "would neighbors from different games be put into the same hood"
and the moderator response was "no"
then there really is no risk for TW to claim Neighbor BG right?
there was no risk in the sense that "the worst wouldn't be literal confirmed scum if another neighbour claimed". there was still risk that we would call bullshit on his neighbourless neighbour claim, considering he was fairly scumread at the time.
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:33 am
by PookyTheMagicalBear
Like if anything it made way more sense to lynch me yesterday than today.
1. You resolve the Pooky - TW TPR issue
2. DSJ hadn't flipped Green like Pooky said yet
3. Pooky had just fake-claimed Vig/Bomb
4. You didn't know of the existence of an MfD which makes Bomb as a role make much much more sense.