I have thoughts on the setup but I'd rather hold onto them until we see what Eddie flips and we see who dies.
As someone who is not in danger of dying, I think that's reasonable.
Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2020 4:17 am
by Luna Fox
I'm really starting to get tired of this day phase tbh.
I feel like I really wanna see EC's flip to know what to do from there, because specially without knowing EC's role any setup assumptions are gonna be bleh.
No one wanted to sanity check me on the SS/EC thing so im just gonna assume that I'm going with Insane theories there. VOTE: Eddie
Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2020 6:42 am
by Eddie Cane
I am very tempted to self hammer out of spite, so you can look back at this day and realize 75% of the content is me attempting to solve, but honestly, most of you are probably going to be like "well he was a dick anyways" and move on with your lives.
Scum deserve to win. GL. I literally gave a play that results in a town win 90%+ of the time, and it went completely ignored. Fucking insane.
Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2020 6:45 am
by Eddie Cane
And before post game: no, this loss is not on Boon. Sometimes, a fake guilty is completely on them. Because of how he claimed (two other results first) and because of how I've played day 2, 3, and 4, this is actually
pretty easy
. I will be blaming whoever's town just as much as Boon. I guess that doesn't really matter because I don't play here anyways. I'm just salty I wasted so much of my time trying to come up with a solve that wins most games to be completely ignored.
All 3 night kills have been people who respect and listen to me, by the way. And only Oka really needed to die. LALALALALALALALA
Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2020 6:48 am
by Something_Smart
In post 5128, Eddie Cane wrote:And before post game: no, this loss is not on Boon. Sometimes, a fake guilty is completely on them. Because of how he claimed (two other results first) and because of how I've played day 2, 3, and 4, this is actually pretty easy.
I've already promised that if you do flip town I won't disregard your posts and in fact I'll go back and read all of them in that light.
But this is silly. It would be one thing if he got quicklynched before he could retract but he posted after being hammered.
Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2020 6:50 am
by Eddie Cane
What really sucks is I thought NSG was supposed to be better than this, so even though her content level is more town game, I'm paranoiaing over her. And my solve covered the world she's scum! But I suppose it doesn't matter. Instead, I'm going to assume every player is town and predict their reply to my town flip for my own enjoyment:
Nero: well he's an asshole, annoying, whiny, and stupid, idc
SS: wow Boon sucks
Luna: probably nothing, because i'm bad at mafia
NSG: maybe if boon didn't throw even though i already scum read eddie d2/d3 despite him being basically clear from my pov
PP; probably nothing, because i'm bad at mafia
Alch: i told you the only plan that results in a town win along with eddie, and you ignored me.
In post 5128, Eddie Cane wrote:And before post game: no, this loss is not on Boon. Sometimes, a fake guilty is completely on them. Because of how he claimed (two other results first) and because of how I've played day 2, 3, and 4, this is actually pretty easy.
I've already promised that if you do flip town I won't disregard your posts and in fact I'll go back and read all of them in that light.
But this is silly. It would be one thing if he got quicklynched before he could retract but he posted after being hammered.
this doesn't matter though
, dude. if a lynch is not me, i can cover who is mafia in you and nero, and cover the world where neither of you are with the Alch check as proposed. i have so little information at this point any posthumous solve is going to be unhelpful. all i know is two people have been super hard pushing my lynch as mechanical all day foregoing all solving(you and PP, especially PP), while everybody else has been considering. and those two people are being put as my partners even though either you or PP as my partner instantly lose with my lynch. so
even if you ignore Boon gamethrowing as not town's fault
, there's still terrible play going on.
I
highlighted
why me being with PP or SS is mechanically almost impossible, and it got 0 replies. Note to SS: you're the person I'm being put with and you still don't seem to care...
I
instructed
Nero to check Alch in my plan, which makes us mechanically not partners either.
It is ludicrous to put me with Nero.
Literally all that's left is NSG and Luna, both of whom have had very very not patrnery interactions with me all game.
I don't care that Boon actively threw. This game IS solvable. And its NOT that hard to solve my alignment.
Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2020 6:58 am
by Eddie Cane
I will restate this one more time even though its not being ignored.
We lynch SS. If he flips mafia, Nero checks one of myself or PP, whoever he thinks is scummier. We are both almost confirmed not mafia doctor.
We lynch SS. If he flips town, Nero checks Alch, because this covers Alch/PP (SS' solve if I'm town because he thinks Nero could be town with him) and Alch/NSG.
This solve wins most games, and covers most teams. I wish you luck if I flip town, its not unwinnable, but it almost is.
Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2020 6:59 am
by Eddie Cane
PP over SS actually might be
better
going off reads, but PP lynch if town results in a town loss almost always, which is no bueno.
Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:00 am
by Luna Fox
Dude you say this like it's something you wouldnt do as scum to save yourself.
Boon caught you with a Night action that's all there is to it, no matter how much you want us to think so otherwise. In fact scum escaping guilties and gloating about it in other games is one reason im really hesitant to let you go based on my reads over Boon's guilty.
Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:11 am
by Eddie Cane
In post 5134, Luna Fox wrote:Dude you say this like it's something you wouldnt do as scum to save yourself.
This is such a big fucking fallacy with how some people play it always irritates me, its an issue in video too.
something you wouldnt do as scum to save yourself
Would I defend myself as scum? Yes, because I care about my winrate*.
Would I defend myself as town? Yes, because I care about my winrate.
So you know what your job as a mafia player is? To
evaluate my defense
. Just because I would defend myself as mafia does not make every defense I make null, it means you sort it and see whether it looks fake. I have posted enough to find me as town, and almost completely proved I'm not mafia. Choosing not to see that because lolguilty is so bad if youre town.
In post 5134, Luna Fox wrote:Boon caught you with a Night action that's all there is to it, no matter how much you want us to think so otherwise. In fact scum escaping guilties and gloating about it in other games is one reason im really hesitant to let you go based on my reads over Boon's guilty.
I can literally explain why Boon claimed a guilty on me. Boon said he checked Oka, I said that was a gamethrowingly bad check and we argued for a while. Then he said he checked SS, who softed RC to him regardless of SS alignment. Boon was extra upset, because that check is even worse if he believes SS to be town, and cognitive dissonance led him to flip his read on me because that's easier than thinking he made not one, but two terrible check claims. This is basic psychology.
You want some basic math to go with the basic psychology? The odds town had two red herring roles and Boon checked them exactly night 1 and night 2 is pretty hilariously low. Nudge nudge.
Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:12 am
by Eddie Cane
And, look at it from an objective point of view. Do you think town has at least an okay chance to win this game if I am town and die today? I'm pretty sure nobody will disagree with "no", so it should be pretty clear why I am "desparately" trying to save this game.
Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:13 am
by Eddie Cane
What's fucking amazing me more than anything this day phase is that Nero might be town, lol.
Nero / PP / SS pushing me, which is, literally the entire PoE excluding myself from your point of view. Is it distancing? I guess you're arguing SS was already distancing from me yesterday, as well as today.
I have another question actually NSG. You are arguing SS might be bussing me today, correct?
that would be what's happening if one were to believe in SS/you.
PERFECT! THIS is something I can argue against without WIFOM. This is all ignoring the fact that if I'm scum with SS, he tried to bus me day 2 with Dany (almost universal scum read and not playing the game) as the other partner.
Isn't that literally an auto loss, though? For SS to win that, there needs to be a LOT of town sucking. For the purposes of this post, I will pretend I am mafia.
1) We are assuming Nero / SS has 1 scum, most likely. I flip scum, so SS should just lose because 2 lynches to kill both of them.
2) Nero is being assumed to not be my partner, so even if you ignore the mechanics, Nero is soft greened. He also gets a cop check to clear PP. SS' new win condition is lynching 2 of Nero / NSG / Alch?
3) That's obviously not happening. So, SS has to night kill Nero. Wake up with SS, Alch, NSG, PP, Luna. Luna is unlynchable. NSG and Alch have each other as town.
So,
the win condition of SS bussing me is convincing people there was no scum between him and Nero (probably not doable), mislynching PP (doable), and then getting one of Luna and NSG/Alch to vote the other in f3 (probably not doable)
.
Its actually borderline unwinnable I believe?
This post especially being ignored is pretty unfortunate.
Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:17 am
by Luna Fox
In post 5136, Eddie Cane wrote:And, look at it from an objective point of view. Do you think town has at least an okay chance to win this game if I am town and die today? I'm pretty sure nobody will disagree with "no", so it should be pretty clear why I am "desparately" trying to save this game.
Well yes, that's just as bad as letting scum you live.
Nero / PP / SS pushing me, which is, literally the entire PoE excluding myself from your point of view. Is it distancing? I guess you're arguing SS was already distancing from me yesterday, as well as today.
I have another question actually NSG. You are arguing SS might be bussing me today, correct?
that would be what's happening if one were to believe in SS/you.
PERFECT! THIS is something I can argue against without WIFOM. This is all ignoring the fact that if I'm scum with SS, he tried to bus me day 2 with Dany (almost universal scum read and not playing the game) as the other partner.
Isn't that literally an auto loss, though? For SS to win that, there needs to be a LOT of town sucking. For the purposes of this post, I will pretend I am mafia.
1) We are assuming Nero / SS has 1 scum, most likely. I flip scum, so SS should just lose because 2 lynches to kill both of them.
2) Nero is being assumed to not be my partner, so even if you ignore the mechanics, Nero is soft greened. He also gets a cop check to clear PP. SS' new win condition is lynching 2 of Nero / NSG / Alch?
3) That's obviously not happening. So, SS has to night kill Nero. Wake up with SS, Alch, NSG, PP, Luna. Luna is unlynchable. NSG and Alch have each other as town.
So,
the win condition of SS bussing me is convincing people there was no scum between him and Nero (probably not doable), mislynching PP (doable), and then getting one of Luna and NSG/Alch to vote the other in f3 (probably not doable)
.
Its actually borderline unwinnable I believe?
This post especially being ignored is pretty unfortunate.
I didn't ignore it, I said that's your scum plan if you're partners with SS so either of the 2 can go and point to it to show that you're not scum together if either gets lynched.
Granted no one wanted to discuss that so whatever.
Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:19 am
by Eddie Cane
And, if you believe in Eddie / PP, that argument goes even harder I think because PP might not even be able to night kill along with fruit. Lol.
Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:22 am
by Eddie Cane
In post 5140, Luna Fox wrote:I didn't ignore it, I said that's your scum plan if you're partners with SS so either of the 2 can go and point to it to show that you're not scum together if either gets lynched.
Oh my goooood dude you're more frustrating than Nero I appreciate that you're actually replying to me, but this is like headbang the wall annoying.
"yes but WIFOM"
is not a reply to everything aaaaaaaaaah
.
YOU KNOW WHY THATS NOT MY SCUM PLAN? BECAUSE, AS EVIDENCED BY VIRTUALLY NOBODY CARING ABOUT THAT POST, NOBODY CARES. EVEN THOUGH I'M NOT WITH DANY, OR SS. NOBODY CARES. SO SHITTY WIFOM ARGUMENTS LIKE THAT DON'T MATTER.
Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:24 am
by Eddie Cane
If I was scum with SS, I would have voted Dany for town cred since we were bussing. If I was scum with SS, two scum were on my 5 person wagon, Dany and SS, with neither unvoting, and with Dany's being self pres. If I was scum with SS, I wouldn't be letting him be gamethrowingly bad and defend Nero as "maybe we're both down durrr". This is so silly. He mechanically loses by me getting lynched, "WIFOM" does not cut it.
Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:27 am
by Luna Fox
And that's why you want us to lynch SS before you... right.
Well im just 1 person and there's 2 other people voting you they could both be scum, heck IF you're town they probably are but im not gonna try arguing anymore with someone i think is scum.
But im just saying if you let this guy live today and we dont lynch scum, we're at LyLo tomorrow and im 100% voting Eddie at LyLo.
This is my one last olive branch, I dont want to get burned by ignoring a guilty due to "FAKE CLAIMS" again, But if town disagrees with me there's nothing i can do about it, but if scum isnt lynched today AND eddie is town, we're losing tomorrow anyway so it's all on you.
I'm done with this day at this point.
Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:29 am
by Eddie Cane
Outside from VM being basically a different game, it is much closer to actual mafia versus typing, and there is a much higher game turnover. So it makes sense I have a better understanding from it of what scum tend to do I think? I'm literally not getting through to anyone because none of you think about this game like I do, and the 3 people who listen to me are dead.
In post 5032, Eddie Cane wrote:I think independently, most of those posts could be partnered, sure. But the fact I let Dany get lynched while not doing anything about it is actually extremely town indicative for me. If I am with SS, my teammate was busing Dany, so scum would have not been pushing elsewhere. Rather than vanity voting Nero, I think as scum with Dany I either try to get another lynch (less likely) or just ensure my vote is on the wagon and kill the rest. To reword, shading Dany throughout the day and at EoD is very townie specifically because its not townie. Does that make sense? I'm so used to playing video I lost some of my ability to articulate well in forum.
This is arguably more clearing than anything else, for example. But because none of you understand the game like I do, you dismiss it as WIFOM. And this is not something I knew back when I played forum, so it makes a degree of sense.
Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:30 am
by Eddie Cane
In post 5144, Luna Fox wrote:And that's why you want us to lynch SS before you... right.
Well im just 1 person and there's 2 other people voting you they could both be scum, heck IF you're town they probably are but im not gonna try arguing anymore with someone i think is scum.
But im just saying if you let this guy live today and we dont lynch scum, we're at LyLo tomorrow and im 100% voting Eddie at LyLo.
This is my one last olive branch, I dont want to get burned by ignoring a guilty due to "FAKE CLAIMS" again, But if town disagrees with me there's nothing i can do about it, but if scum isnt lynched today AND eddie is town, we're losing tomorrow anyway so it's all on you.
I'm done with this day at this point.
Lynching SS today solves the game if the assumptions are correct. If he flips Town then Nero is scum and Penguin is the partner. If SS flips scum then Nero is Town and we can lynch in the order of Penguin/Eddie and for sure hit the remaining partner.
If everyone agrees on those assumptions then SS should be the lynch today.
I am going to tap out because Fire told me this was a good playerlist and lied. To quote GotG:
Sakura Hana wrote:Why arent we lynching the guilty.
Katsuki fake claimed once in Minuet's Trio and even that got us a scum lynch, but i dont think it's a fake claim.
From my PoV, if all the investigatives were gunsmiths then we wouldnt be able to find the scum poisoner, and Kats role seems to be designed exactly for that purpose, plus the gunsmiths act as millers to each other, and if there's a scum gunsmith, it's purpose is probably to find the town ones.
Meanwhile Katsuki's claiming main character, he's also been poisoned, no one has claimed to have poisoned Kats so it came from scum, Kats inno on muffin even if fake must've been believed by scum enough to consider him a threat worth poisoning.
So I trust that Katsuki's actually a cop with a guilty on MariaR
In post 3477, MariaR wrote:when the scumteam is likely 3 people no it doesn't.
No, it is actually MORE believable if the scumteam is 3 people
We have a flipped roleblocker.
We have an existing poisoner.
We have a likely scum gunsmith.
out of those 3 the only one who actually gives any meaningful result is the roleblocker
the gunsmith is the equivalent to a scum miller for the other gunsmiths, so it's hard to tell if town/scum gunsmith from a gunsmith result.
the poisoner is the equivalent to a scum godfather for the other gunsmiths.
So only 1 scum actually gives any meaningful result to the gunsmiths and town doesnt seem to have any other way to figure out who's scum other than by day play entirely coz the investigatives are useless.
So an alignment cop can easily find the scum gunsmith and the scum poisoner and tell the difference, likewise can find a town gunsmith
Anyone with a "not gun" result can still be a scum poisoner
Anyone with a "gun" result that is a claimed gunsmith can still be a scum gunsmith.
An alignment cop doesnt care they'll get the alignment and i doubt there are millers or godfathers if the gunsmiths are already in a bad situation wrt investigations.
Just like the vanilla cops of last game, any non vanilla result didnt mean much for the town.
Ergo, i believe that Katsuki is the role he is claiming. And if the inno on muffin was enough to cause scum to poison him, i also believe that muffin is conf town.
In post 3487, MariaR wrote:Ok so you get everyone to claim if they have a gun or not then you know poisoner has to be in the people without guns.
All done
we currently have 4-5 ppl claimed to have guns
that leaves 10-9 ppl without guns.
Good luck PoEing the later.
Now can we please lynch player that has an alignment cop guilty on them?
In post 3472, Sakura Hana wrote:Ah right.
Katsuki fake claimed a guilty on Dunn back on Minuet's Trio, I guess that's why Dunn dislikes Katsuki so much.
I dislike Katsuki because he came into this game and said he'd gamethrow and started acting like a brat
I don't appreciate the shade here when you've played through the same game as me and complained about his caps posting
I appreciate that you're actually replying to me, but this is like headbang the wall annoying. 
xD"