Medea is scum when I look over their isos from days 1 and 2, but dunn has seemed super town, and I just dont see how the mech could work on scum medea.
Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2021 8:52 am
by Lukewarm
In post 5121, Lukewarm wrote:To be real, it feels like A LOT of people are dismissing the plan, because not trying to kill scum today does not "feel right" and trying to vote out the scum does "feel right" without actually looking at the pros and cons of the plans.
And, like.... Captain America said that... right before they fucking lost to thanos.
And in the next movie, they actually win because both black widow and iron man do sacrifice themselves.
That kind of thematically proves my point lol.
Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2021 9:19 am
by Annie Edison
Except every single thing had to fall into place perfectly to beat thanos including those actions
Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2021 9:26 am
by Lukewarm
Don't really want to debate a movie in here.
But, when I see an option that is like way more +ev for us to win, not doing it because of the "principle" of it is very very not convincing to me
If you have a perfect solve, and we kill them today and tomorrow directly, then we win. If you have a perfect solve, and we do my plan, and then kill them tomorrow and the next day, we still win (EVEN IF MY PLAN FAILS BTW - like, if they have a roleblocker, it still works with a perfect solve today)
If you have the perfect solve, we win either way.
But if your solve is wrong, we lose with your plan. And if your solve is wrong, we get to try again with my plan.
So, I'm playing to my win condition by pushing it as hard as I can.
Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2021 9:36 am
by borkjerfkin
hello all. hope everyone is having a wonderful day.
Dunn and Medea? Every fiber of my being says that they are scum when I look over their isos from days 1 and 2, but dunn has seemed super town, and I just dont see how the mech could work on scum medea.
Could you reword? There's a clear contradiction between isoing Dun and Medea and thinking they're both scum days 1 and 2, but Dunn seeming super town, unless you're saying Dunn has only seemed super town this day phase.
Dunn and Medea? Every fiber of my being says that they are scum when I look over their isos from days 1 and 2, but dunn has seemed super town, and I just dont see how the mech could work on scum medea.
Could you reword? There's a clear contradiction between isoing Dun and Medea and thinking they're both scum days 1 and 2, but Dunn seeming super town, unless you're saying Dunn has only seemed super town this day phase.
Back.
-Bell
I tried to fix it later. The "they" was penguin and cabd.
No, this is stupid and we are not participating in it
Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2021 1:31 pm
by Snarky Fishes
Then I think that unwnd MUST agree to shard you tonight.
It delays the first deshard by a night, assuming manatee is a backup desharder, and it adds a demonic to the count that otherwise wouldn't happen, but after night 5 we should be back to today's count hopefully.
Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2021 1:33 pm
by Snarky Fishes
all of this assumes scum can't put a spoke in town's wheel. :/
It delays the first deshard by a night, assuming manatee is a backup desharder, and it adds a demonic to the count that otherwise wouldn't happen, but after night 5 we should be back to today's count hopefully.
This loses the game if we don't hit the corrupter today.
We are at 6 + 1 corrupted
If unwnd turns the dragons, and then the scum corrupt one and turn both, that is 9. We lose.
The only way for this plan to work we have to either: kill the scum corrupter directly or force a human townie to suicide on you. (And if we are forcing a human townie to suicide on you anyways, it should just be the dragons...)
Having unwnd shard the dragons feels like a bad plan. It also relies on trusting that both the dragons and unwnd are town. (To be fair, my plan requires trusting manatee to be town, but that feels safer to me)
Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2021 1:41 pm
by Snarky Fishes
Cool, cool dragons.
Hammer us please. Ignore your feelings.
-Bell
Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2021 1:43 pm
by Lukewarm
And like look at my pro / con post from last page x.x
Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2021 1:43 pm
by Annie Edison
Yeah let’s have two townies purposefully kill each other instead of kill scum
That’s a great fucking idea how could this ever go wrong
In post 5119, Lukewarm wrote:I actually am not sure why so many people are so against it anyways. Even if I am wrong, I am pretty sure that we are in the same boat as if we just hunt for the right scum team. And absolutely no one giving me a reasonable explanation of how it is better to do it your way sure does not make me feel like changing gears....
All plans involve finding our best guess for the scum team today, but then the different plans branch on how to go about killing them
------
Plan 1: Vote for the scum team directly this Day phase.
Spoiler:
If we are correct, we have killed scum today. Yay!
If we hit the Corrupter, then tomorrow will be the day before elo to find the other one (we have 1 miss shot)
If we hit the non-corrupter, then tomorrow is ELO. (we have no miss shots)
If we are wrong, we lose. On the spot. They turn 2 people tonight using the corrupter, and then there are 8 demons and 2 scum tomorrow.
------
Plan 2: Try to get our top scum read to hammer the Fishes
Spoiler:
If we are correct, they just refuse to hammer. We then have to vote them out directly. We kill scum today, Yay!
If we hit the Corrupter, then tomorrow will be the day before elo to find the other one. (we have 1 miss shot)
If we hit the non-corrupter, then tomorrow is ELO. (we have 0 miss shots)
If we are wrong, then a townie hammers you, and tomorrow is Elo. 2 scum alive, find the corrupter or lose. If we do this plan, hit a townie today, and then successfully find scum tomorrow, but it is the non-corrupter tomorrow we lose.
Plan 3: Ask the dragons to hammer the Fishes (then killing our top scum reads starting tomorrow)
Spoiler:
If we do this plan, and we are right, we buy ourselves SO FUCKING MUCH Leway. Like, omg, we can miss like 3 times afterwards. And we are getting so much more info to solve with.
If we are wrong, then we still don't lose. It is the same as missing in plan 2: tomorrow is Elo. 2 scum alive, find the corrupter or lose.
-----
My plan has THE BEST upside if it works, hands down. No one is even arguing this, I don't think
But then it does not even have the worst downsides on being wrong (see plan 1)...
And there are still people out there advocating plan 1...
To be real, it feels like A LOT of people are dismissing the plan, because not trying to kill scum today does not "feel right" and trying to vote out the scum does "feel right" without actually looking at the pros and cons of the plans.
This one
Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2021 1:44 pm
by Lukewarm
In post 5144, Annie Edison wrote:Yeah let’s have two townies purposefully kill each other instead of kill scum
That’s a great fucking idea how could this ever go wrong
But you are instead on board for unwnd to demonize someone else, and make it that much closer for the scum team to win?
