Page 22 of 30
Posted: Sun Sep 30, 2012 4:37 pm
by Cheery Dog
↑ CityElectric wrote:I first want to know what anyone would gain from cases like Dog's on every unconfirmed player, except for that the wall post count of the thread will rise, before I start doing them. I'm not going to start on Dog's analysis of me, because it mainly refers to stuff we already went over D1. Unless someone really has a pending question about that.
Also, your possible scum-team list. Even if it's in the order of probability, it doesn't say all that much. Basically that every unconfirmed player is possibly on a scum team (no shit) and that you think Me/Jason is the most likely. Well, that really gave me some insight on your thought processes. (It didn't.) How far more likely is a Me/Jason team than Me/Johnny or Jason/Johnny to you? Also, what connection did we have again?
↑ JasonWazza wrote:
And i really don't like how you (Dog) keep referring to yourself as town, that is up to the rest of us, not up to you.
QFT
reading the cases may help then (slightly), though I did actually only comment on jason/johnny being unlikey, however the individual cases I found Jason to be the most scummy, and therefore his teaming with you became the top choice.
though I probably do need to do some more read-overs to remember why I had a feeling of you/johnny scum, because I think I might be getting that feeling again.
Posted: Sun Sep 30, 2012 4:52 pm
by Cheery Dog
↑ JasonWazza wrote:
1) So i can't possibly be town and have had legitimate scum reads because they are all confirmed town in some way?
2) Is this your pathetic way of covering why you weren't killed?
Like seriously, that is bad.
3) Again
MY EXPERIENCE
and
Normally you don't claim before Day 3 because it is too soon
, nhammen has said the second one himself even.
4) So i can't suspect you and vote someone else?
I had other scum reads, apparently you have a problem with that.
For the rest of it basically it is 1 again
For suspecting Rudi I have slight suspicions but that is more based on i don't see why anyone would want to kill him Last night.
May i point out you seem to have very high double standards.
I am Scum cause i have voted for 3 confirmed town (wii, Herr (not really confirmed but for this), nhammen)
You aren't scum even though you have voted 3 of the confirmed town (wii, ewo, Pasch)
The main difference being i was only on 1 flipped and actually proven wagon, the other two are Semi-Confirmed by our town doctor.
You were on 2 flipped and proven town wagons and 1 Definite confirmed townie (Pasch is 100% CONFIRMED).
And i really don't like how you keep referring to yourself as town, that is up to the rest of us, not up to you.
You can have them, but the way in which you lost interest yesterday on rudi and how you started on nhammen just don't flow well with me.
The fact I'm still alive means either I'm scum or that scum kept me alive because my reads were all wrong leaving me to hammer a town and that I also declared I was keen on leading another wagon on ewo if wii flipped town.
and actually I don't like people that refer to themselves as town as much as I am doing here (woo I have double standards), so ok I'll stop, but it doesn't change my alignment.
That post is reading paranoid town to me, and I am actually thinking my suspecting of your slot is mostly now because of venrob's early posts and some of the badplay you have done.
Posted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 5:13 am
by Cheery Dog
Since it appears noone is going to follow my suggestions (I do believe it will help, but I guess it can wait until tomorrow for those still alive then), I'm going to place my vote out now.
Logic is telling me that's it's City/Jason, my gut it telling it's City/Johnny and some early voting (by past slot occupiers) is telling me it could be Jason/Johnny doing distancing manoeuvres.
Since the most logical thoughts have so far failed to find scum, I'm going to assume that logic is a red herring, and therefore go with the other options - therefore
VOTE: Johnny
Posted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 7:31 am
by nhammen
↑ JasonWazza wrote:I honestly don't think we should totally confirm the doc saves just in case there was a no kill, assuming that they attempted a kill N1 (which is most likely tbh) they may have risked being the doc's protect N2 for the WIFOM to seem confirmed.
I can understand the paranoia coming from town, but this looks a little scummy, even so. I will state that I will be considering Herr to be town for the time being at least. Even in the very unlikely event that Herr is scum, there is a partner somewhere in the unconfirmeds. Thus, until we have at least one scumflip, I will be considering Herr as completely confirmed. Additionally, even if scum no-killed, it is unlikely that Pasch happened to target scum that same night.
↑ Cheery Dog wrote:I realise this is going back to probability again, however I am seriously doubting that both members of the scum team would be able to avoid votes outside of the early stages of a newbie game.
Today is the first time I have been voted.
Johnny & Jason were only voted by ewo after they had replaced in. (one of which was by mistake).
This leaves me to suspect City is on the scumteam since she gathered some votes under her own stream.
Probability doesn't quite work that way. Scum could easily have been hiding under the radar.
↑ JasonWazza wrote: ↑ CityElectric wrote:
Where did this suddenly come from? You don't seem like you're buying Pasch's reasoning on Dog, so why vote him now, putting him at L-1?
For emphasis: Dog is now at L-1.
Now your trying to miss-rep me.
↑ JasonWazza wrote:
I am all for Cherry's play being bad after yesterday and him being possible scum, but really, because he was on both lynches he is scum?
I am saying i don't agree with the tells he is using not that cheery isn't scum, and he is a confirmed doctor now, i honestly didn't expect that (pasch wasn't exactly on the top of my town list).
Wait what? City never said that you don't think Dog is scum. City asked why you think Dog is scum. There was no mis-rep here.
---
CheeryDog's cases in #503 and onward will take a little bit of time to process; time which I don't have right now. Therefore, I will post more tonight. Because there are only 4 people who I will consider as scum, that means that there are only 6 possible scumteams. Over the next two or three days I will reread the game in the context of these possible scumteams, and see if any possibilities are removed.
Posted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 7:34 am
by nhammen
↑ HerrRudi wrote:What doesn't make sense to me is that we only have a Doc who has no reason to lie about his targets, and we have a player who gets called town literally all the time in D1 and a lot of D2 (that's you CD), that apparently never gets targeted for the NK. This just does not make sense to me considering how this site plays. Universal town reads get killed, but you didn't nor has anyone claimed to protect you. I know this isn't rock solid reasoning but I cannot get passed it in my mind.
This is actually one of the few reasons that I am seriously considering the possibility of CheeryScum. The other reason, is that Pasch's successful N2 protect was based upon who Cheery would target if Cheery were scum.
Posted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 7:38 am
by nhammen
↑ Paschendale wrote:So wait, your possible scum teams are every combination that don't include the confirmed town or you? Man, that is some hardcore detective work!
↑ Cheery Dog wrote:the confirmed townies are confirmed town.. why should I be placing them in the supposed teams?
I think your sarcasm detector is broken. He's saying that your list of "most likely" teams is the list of all possible teams. Your definition of most likely doesn't mean much.
Posted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 8:33 am
by Paschendale
If Nhammen wants to take his time with this, I'll
Unvote
for now.
Posted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 1:29 pm
by HerrRudi
Trying to decide if CD is trying too hard or being sincere. I'm leaning towards trying too hard.
And idk if that was a post of irritation Pasch but the way I see it we're not in too big a hurry. Did you expect Nhammen to hammer?
Also can we go over the logic again of why Cheery would target me for N2 kill? I felt like people started getting on my case and I was ignoring Cheery and called him town. That's almost ideal for him isn't it?
Posted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 1:30 pm
by StrangerCoug
Cheery Dog (2): HerrRudi, JasonWazza
JasonWazza (1): CityElectric
JohnnyFarrar (1): Cheery Dog
Not voting (2): JohnnyFarrar, nhammen, Paschendale
With
7
players alive, it takes
4
players to lynch.
Day 3 ends in
(expired on 2012-10-18 20:04:24).
Posted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 11:55 am
by StrangerCoug
Nobody's due for a prod yet, but 22½ hours without a post is pretty appalling, guys.
Posted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 1:08 pm
by Paschendale
We're waiting on Johnny and Nhammen.
Rudi's in the right spot. Jason is trying to bus and not doing an especially good job. I wasn't especially comfortable with the game sitting at L-1 without knowing where everyone stands.
I'd also like to hear more from City if she's convinced that Jason is the right kill today.
Posted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 3:33 pm
by JasonWazza
what?
I have a scum read on CD doesn't mean he is scum with me, that is just wrong reasoning.
And yes this game has slowed really quickly.
Posted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 3:53 pm
by JohnnyFarrar
So sorry for being so inactive, guys. I'll catch up right now.
Posted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 7:23 pm
by JohnnyFarrar
3. 2. 1. VCA!
↑ StrangerCoug wrote:
ewo2 (4): nhammen, JohnnyFarrar, CityElectric, Wiibox3
Wiibox3 (5): JasonWazza, Paschendale, HerrRudi, ewo2, Cheery Dog
Me and City voted together. Everyone else was apart. I'd say City is probably scum, since scum usually aren't both on the same mislynch wagon D1.
↑ StrangerCoug wrote:
ewo2 (5): Paschendale, JohnnyFarrar, Cheery Dog, CityElectric, nhammen
nhammen (2): ewo2, JasonWazza
Not voting (1): HerrRudi
City and Cheery voted together. Also probably not partners. Things to note: City and Jason never voted together, Cheery was on both wagons. Given this information I'd say the scumteam is probably Jason and City.
I'm not on the team.
Cheery looks exactly like a newbie that can't figure out what to do. His vote for me is evidence, he says right out loud that he's abandoned logic. I'm not totally convinced, because
this, but I'd be willing to bet that he's town.
My official prediction for the scumteam is Jason and City. Which should we get rid of today?
Posted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 8:54 pm
by JasonWazza
↑ JohnnyFarrar wrote:3. 2. 1. VCA!
↑ StrangerCoug wrote:
ewo2 (4): nhammen, JohnnyFarrar, CityElectric, Wiibox3
Wiibox3 (5): JasonWazza, Paschendale, HerrRudi, ewo2, Cheery Dog
Me and City voted together. Everyone else was apart. I'd say City is probably scum, since scum usually aren't both on the same mislynch wagon D1.
↑ StrangerCoug wrote:
ewo2 (5): Paschendale, JohnnyFarrar, Cheery Dog, CityElectric, nhammen
nhammen (2): ewo2, JasonWazza
Not voting (1): HerrRudi
City and Cheery voted together. Also probably not partners. Things to note: City and Jason never voted together, Cheery was on both wagons. Given this information I'd say the scumteam is probably Jason and City.
I'm not on the team.
Cheery looks exactly like a newbie that can't figure out what to do. His vote for me is evidence, he says right out loud that he's abandoned logic. I'm not totally convinced, because
this, but I'd be willing to bet that he's town.
My official prediction for the scumteam is Jason and City. Which should we get rid of today?
inb4 this is all based on nothing but odds, so in other words we have gained nothing from this.
Analzse what we have done not where scum would most likely be on a wagon because that won't find us anything.
So if you have any actual input go ahead and throw it out there, but this is just a pathetic way of bend the logic where ever you please.
With this logic really any of us could be scum, you just decided in your own mind that it was me and city.
Posted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 9:04 pm
by JohnnyFarrar
I gave my opinion on Cheery, the only other option for the scum-team. PoE is a lovely tool.
Posted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 9:33 pm
by Cheery Dog
↑ JohnnyFarrar wrote:
↑ StrangerCoug wrote:
ewo2
(4):
nhammen
, JohnnyFarrar, CityElectric,
Wiibox3
Wiibox3
(5): JasonWazza,
Paschendale
,
HerrRudi
,
ewo2
, Cheery Dog
↑ StrangerCoug wrote:
ewo2
(5):
Paschendale
, JohnnyFarrar, Cheery Dog, CityElectric,
nhammen
nhammen
(2):
ewo2
, JasonWazza
Not voting (1):
HerrRudi
just colour coded this as per confirmed town/ semi-confirmed town (which I do take to be confirmed at this moment, but just in case they're blue).
Either both scum were on ewo's Day 2 wagon as the easy lynch or if Jasons was scum, he was trying to find another town to be attacking, which weirdly happened to be both the failed nightkills as claimed by the doctor.
I'm seeing SE advice to a scumpartner here.
Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 6:16 am
by JohnnyFarrar
And I'm seeing the common "One on, One off" strategy that most newbies insist on applying. Which is why I think city/jason is the team.
Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 6:30 am
by JasonWazza
↑ JohnnyFarrar wrote:And I'm seeing the common "One on, One off" strategy that most newbies insist on applying. Which is why I think city/jason is the team.
I was rolling on the floor reading this.
You think that because we are newbs in a newb game that we must be applying this theory that most wouldn't touch with a 50 foot pole because it is bloody obvious.
And on top of that i am not as newb as you are implying in this, 3 completed and 4 ongoing is what i have.
But again PoE gets us no where because we can't believe that you are town so your PoE is nothing from everyone else's point of view, and here is the main thing i am seeing here.
CD and johnny seem to be teaming up here and i think this is why, for scum to win they have to lynch both UN-confirmed townies, or bus and hit 1 scum and the other 2 town.
The best you guys have is pointless theory well here is my theory that is based on something actually in the game, you are both attacking together and you are both pushing meaningless logic to try and push lynches.
The scum team is CD and Johnny, that is my call on this situation.
Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 6:42 am
by JohnnyFarrar
↑ JasonWazza wrote:
I was rolling on the floor reading this.
You should probably rethink your reading habits. I personally read while sitting in a chair.
You think that because we are newbs in a newb game that we must be applying this theory that most wouldn't touch with a 50 foot pole because it is bloody obvious.
I think that coupled with my continued townread on Cheery, that's a pretty strong case, and I don't care if you say you wouldn't do it.
And on top of that i am not as newb as you are implying in this, 3 completed and 4 ongoing is what i have.
You are a newbie in a newb game.
But again PoE gets us no where because we can't believe that you are town so your PoE is nothing from everyone else's point of view, and here is the main thing i am seeing here.
I'm not considering the fact that I'm scum because I'm not scum. My logic works fine for me.
CD and johnny seem to be teaming up here and i think this is why, for scum to win they have to lynch both UN-confirmed townies, or bus and hit 1 scum and the other 2 town.
Teaming up on who? CD just (softly) said he thought I was scum with one of the newbies and is voting
me
.
The best you guys have is pointless theory well here is my theory that is based on something actually in the game, you are both attacking together and you are both pushing meaningless logic to try and push lynches.
Discrediting VCA (hard evidence) combined with common theory (One on, One off). Ok. If I'm trying to push a lynch, where's my vote? If CD's trying to push any lynch right now, it's one on me. Who are we attacking together?
The scum team is CD and Johnny, that is my call on this situation.
So what's your read on City?
Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 11:33 am
by nhammen
I don't see Cheery and Jason as possible partners. On D1 Cheery attacked Venrob. OK, this can be distancing. Then he checked Venrob's meta, and... never described what conclusions that led him to? Could still be partners. But then he also checked Jason's meta.
↑ Cheery Dog wrote:The other two replaces in you had done had you going over everyone in those games (but I guess they allowed spoilers and were about 4s bigger than this one (also I just noticed that you did both of them on the game post number)) except strangely venrob in 1265.
Yet he gave off the gave scummy vibe in that game as this one?
Would scum Cheery make a meta case on his partner? It seems too strong to be distancing. OK, I did follow up on this case more than Cheery did. But I don't see Cheery making that case against a partner, even without following up on it. What do you all think?
Cheery's attacks on City on D1 also do not look like distancing to me. I think that if Cheery is scum, his partner is most likely Johnny.
Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 11:36 am
by StrangerCoug
Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 3:18 pm
by HerrRudi
For that and several other reasons I agree with you Nhammen that the Cheery Jason team is highly unlikely.
I'm willing to hear more cases on City, but I'm leaning gut she is town.
Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 4:32 pm
by Paschendale
Well, I was far more sure of Cheery than of Jason. I could have the partner wrong. But I'm almost 100% positive that Cheery is our scum. Both based on his votes and arguments previous days, and the change in his demeanor now.
Posted: Wed Oct 03, 2012 4:44 pm
by Cheery Dog
So tell me how a town demeanor is capable of staying the same when put under pressure leading up to LYLO.