Mini 1398 - Game Over!

[Bacde]

Man I can't wait to see your face when I flip town.

I'm talking to you Melmond, since ICENinja is scum.

[Cheery Dog]

In the mean time, I will say that you've rubbed me as town so far this day. Not going to grab quotes to explain at this hour, but waiting for my opinion on that one post of Absta looked like you genuinely wanted to consider all possibilities and get my perspective before pushing for a lynch. That looked like it came from town, in my opinion.

Well that read you produced was based off yesterday's play, so I guess that has changed.

Melmond came into this game at the game time as me, so his lack of wanting to vote Shamrock I don't believe is alignment conclusive.

Looking at the people off both shamrock and disturbed wagons (myself, dunham and iamausername)
Dunham was replacing out at that stage, so I don't see any point about checking what he was doing about the wagon.
I'm not going to be commenting about myself.
Iama is a slightly strange one in that he was wanting to put off any hammers of shamrock, and never actually called him scum, just "an acceptable lynch". No real opinion on how it was happening, just focus on mirhawk's mind changes. Then the way he has dropped the case and the wording of why he wanted the Shamrock lynch to wait, I believe he was trying to get us focused on Mirhawk before shamrock flipped scum and 215 made Mirhawk likely town.

UNVOTE: Rob
VOTE: iamausername

[Alduskkel]

Vote Count #21

jmo16mla (2) - iamausername, Rob13
Melmond (2) - Jabberwock, ICEninja
absta101 (2) - Nachomamma8, Melmond
ICEninja (1) - Bacde
iamausername (1) - Cheery Dog

Not Voting (3) - Mirhawk, absta101, jmo16mla

Deadline is in: (expired on 2013-01-01 16:30:00)

11 alive, 6 to lynch.

[ICEninja]

Just for anyone who is unclear:

Scum Bacde is only going to have 1 partner left in a mini this size. Realizing that he has no chance of endgaming us, his only hope is that said remaining scum buddy survives to lylo.

If said scum buddy is Melmond, he will already know that Bacde surviving to endgame is not possible, and will be glad to bus the shit out of his buddy for town cred, which is pretty much all Bacde is worth to his scum team at this point (unless he is scum PR, in which case his buddy will want to delay his lynch until 1 day before lylo).

In the highly unlikely event that Bacde really is town, scum is probably dancing for joy at the prospect of him being a free mislynch later. Which is why a vig should have absolutely no compulsion shooting Bacde tonight, even if they think I'm wrong. Seriously, if you're a vig in this game and you DON'T shoot Bacde tonight I'm going to hunt down your future offspring someday and slap them with fishes so hard YOU'LL feel it.

[Nachomamma8]

There's no Vig, there was only one NK.

@Ice & Bacde - Why are you two talking about Vigging?

Why do you think mafia would talk about vigging at this point in time?

@Nacho - Actually, why are you refusing to answer my question?

because my reads will change depending on what shamrock flips and what happens during the night
there's no reason for me to explain my secondary and tertiary reads now

Explain your vote on me and answer my question please.

I won't until you put a vote down.

Shamrock's six posts were not bad enough to warrant not waiting for a claim, in my opinion.

So what's your read on me calling for people to lynch him without one?

Second, I think that he voted Shamrock in part to try to signal to him to get his ass in thread if he was reading but not posting. If Shamrock had gotten in thread early when it was only Bacde's vote and started contributing, I don't think he would have been lynched.

But you're still not answering the why. Why would he signal with a vote? Why wouldn't he signal how most people do and just tell him to get in and post?

If he had been actually scum-hunting, it wouldn't look bad at all.

Here's a very key point that we disagree on. Scumhunting doesn't always look pretty. I liked that he kept posting even after people said he looked terrible for doing, how he kept posting on it while we were lynching Shamrock, and basically never let it go because it shows that he has conviction in his read, and I don't think it makes sense for him to be that stubborn as scum.

Mod, prod Nacho?

So all of your content lately has been "Nacho, why do you think I am scum? Nacho, why aren't you posting?"
Do you think I am scum? If so, why aren't you voting me? If not, why are you so fixated on me?

[Rob14]

Also the reads weren't in order. Shamrock and Disturbed one were somewhat close, but I did vote disturbed one. Also, in the town reads, you would have been above nacho.

See I don't buy that. The psychology of writing them down would put them in SOME order. If nothing else, then the order you happened to think of them. Considering how absta, at the time, was your weakest scum read and you had very little to say about him, combined with the fact that he was your 3rd in the list of whom you explained, this doesn't track. I simply can't follow how your thought process would have placed absta as first in that list unless you meant he was the least scummy, which you actually did say so. Which would imply that Shamrock was the scummiest of the list.

And how can you go back and say that I was a stronger town read than Nacho? We can't exactly take that on faith.

If he writes them down in the order he thinks of them, then I would expect most scummy to be at the top of the scum list because they stick in his mind most. Also, many people don't write reads list in order. I, personally, go to the nearest vote count and place all the names in categories in the order they appear on the vote count so I don't miss anyone. I think this post is reaching a bit.

Shamrock's six posts were not bad enough to warrant not waiting for a claim, in my opinion.

So what's your read on me calling for people to lynch him without one?

Anti-town, and a slight scum tell. I wouldn't expect scum to lynch a partner without giving them a chance to claim, but it's possible if you thought the partner was useless and would be lynched regardless of a claim. That situation is possible considering Shamrock's play this game.

Second, I think that he voted Shamrock in part to try to signal to him to get his ass in thread if he was reading but not posting. If Shamrock had gotten in thread early when it was only Bacde's vote and started contributing, I don't think he would have been lynched.

But you're still not answering the why. Why would he signal with a vote? Why wouldn't he signal how most people do and just tell him to get in and post?

Assuming Bacde's scum, he had to move his vote at that point to relieve pressure on him. Shamrock was a non-controversial position that no one can attack him for. A vote on Shamrock doesn't involve him having to come up with a case on someone that could be picked apart to further attack him and push for his lynch. It also distances them for later in the game.

Having said that, we shouldn't be talking about Bacde this game day. The topic of his lynch won't come up until much, much later in the game, so I think it's best to focus on the here and now.

[absta101]

@Nacho - I'm focusing on you and I need your answer. If I had a scum read, i'd obviously be voting them. Stop prolonging this

[Mirhawk]

Vote: ICEninja

You know I can only read so many really terrible posts from one person before I start wondering if they're full of it. Why on earth would you start advocating Vig kills on bacde if it's already clear he won't make it to the endgame and we might be able to benefit from his power in the meantime?

He's also justifying his votes on melmond with unprovable hypothetical theory's. Oh, and there's that thing with unvoting cheery because bacde asked him why he's voting the same person as him.

Not sure why he keeps getting labeled as town.

[Mirhawk]

@abasta
How can you actually have no scum reads. I have so many I can't pick between them.

[ICEninja]

Mirhawk if you think I'm scum because I'm asking a vig to shoot Bacde then you're stupid.

Look, fuck it, I've been so stupidly obvious I'm pretty sure if scum has any brains they already know. I've thought the situations over in my head, and I'm pretty sure this is going to force scum to do something they don't want to so I'm OK with it.

I'm the doctor.

So now you all know why I'm so fucking confident and want a vig to shoot him. In the tiny tiny possibility (almost none, since there wasn't anything worked in to my role PM that would indicate I can't protect a bodyguard) that he's town, a vig shooting him would be less painful than mislynching him.

So now that we're relatively sure that Bacde is scum, can we please revisit my Melmond case, and either end this game night 2 or day 3?

We wait until scum shoots me to lynch Bacde, so that way my flip proves his guilt. Scum leaving me alive is also risky as I'll be damn near impossible to mislynch, and scum losing night kills at this point would be incredibly painful. If Bacde really is town, and really is a bodyguard, he protects me and therefore dies himself during the night, that'll help us out plenty. Being doctor is my least favorite role anyway.

I've breadcrumbed this like a mofo too so if anyone doesn't believe me then, once again, you're stupid.

[ICEninja]

Oh and Bacde if you're VT who fake claimed bodyguard it will literally be your fault if town loses and you'll be added to my "will not play with" list.

[Mirhawk]

Goddamnit

Why the fuck did you claim when it has been made expressly clear that bacde isn't going to live to the endgame! What possible purpose does that achieve?

Unvote

[Mirhawk]

Well it doesn't look quite as bad now that I read the rest of your post, but I still don't think you should have claimed.

[Cheery Dog]

I have so many I can't pick between them.

Who are your other scumreads? (besides presumably ICEninja who you just voted for)

Given Ice's posts just above, I think I am still confident in my iamausername vote, he barely commented on the Bacde wagon either, just called it bad and the only part of the reasons for the bacde wagon commented on as to why it was bad was Bacde's case on Nacho, no mention of the other reasons Jabber had listed for him being voted.

[Mirhawk]

My scumreads are:
-Iceninja (probably going to drop this one now)
-Rob
-Abasta
-Cheery
-Jmo

They're more or less listed in order of strength. As you can see there's loads of them. I've got no idea how abasta could possibly have none.

[Rob14]

None of this sounds scummy. Why do need the answer to this?

Never said it was scummy, just wondering if it was intentional.

Wait, if it's not scummy, why did you bring it up?

Shamrock seems like he's pretending to be surprised. Instead of just "why did you bring it up?", he adds the unnecessary beginning part to make it seem like he's genuinely caught something.

I like my 'find' on Shamrock more. What do you think of his post?

Some more reasons for Town-Absta, by the way. He's the first to bring up Shamrock and even drew attention back to it a few posts later when people weren't biting. Doesn't read like distancing to me, and certainly not bussing.

Also, my scum-read of JMO has slipped away for the most part. The majority of my case on him was based on his reaction to the page 1 case on him, but now that I've spent some time with his town meta, that's actually not that abnormal for him. I have more than enough doubt that I wouldn't want to lynch him today.

Unvote
Vote Cheery Dog

I do not like how he switched off of me and onto iam. It's an interesting coincidence that it comes the post after I said I like him for town in this day. I went from trying to push three mislynches through in his ISO #20 to being unvoted in ISO #23 with literally no explanation in between. He moved instead onto iama, who he had never talked about before that post. I don't buy the idea that iama suddenly was a larger scum-read than me. Cheery had been cultivating his scum-read on me all day until I said he looked town, whereas iama never even warranted a mention before now.

[Cheery Dog]

I do not like how he switched off of me and onto iam. It's an interesting coincidence that it comes the post after I said I like him for town in this day. I went from trying to push three mislynches through in his ISO #20 to being unvoted in ISO #23 with literally no explanation in between. He moved instead onto iama, who he had never talked about before that post. I don't buy the idea that iama suddenly was a larger scum-read than me. Cheery had been cultivating his scum-read on me all day until I said he looked town, whereas iama never even warranted a mention before now.

Your posts once they started coming in bulk seemed to me to me a lot more town than your original ones where you replaced in were (which I believe could be said the same with mine probably).
I never actually followed through any of my own points against you, besides dropping each point since your responses were actually logical. After I decided Melmond's staying off the shamrock wagon was null, I decided to have a look at others off it. (having talked about jmo earlier, I went to the non-major counterwagons)
Figured there would be nothing on dunham, and found iama's responses to the shamrock wagon interesting.
There were actually a few times previously where I was going to remove my vote, but I hadn't gone looking for where I wanted to place it up to ISO #20, so decided to leave it on you instead of having it dangling uselessly.

[jmo16mla]

Mirhawk, can you explain your case on absta a little more, besides that he has no scum reads?

Also, sure, I'm dumb, why was a doctor claim bad now? If body guards and doctors can't be in the same game, and there's a question of bacades claim, haven't we just found scum?

[Bacde]

ICENinja if you are town why didn't you suggest that I save you while you simultaneously save me? This sounds like a potential game winning strategy.

I'm unconvinced by your claim.

[Bacde]

Oh and Bacde if you're VT who fake claimed bodyguard it will literally be your fault if town loses and you'll be added to my "will not play with" list.

This is a pretty dramatic appeal to emotion. A lot of people here were already convinced that I was scum, and were just waiting for me to die at night to confirm me. Why are you acting as though this is a win-or-lose situation? Town is already doing pretty well--our first lynch was scum. There's no way we are in a LYLO situation right now.

Or are you a desperate scum looking for some way to pile on mislynches?

[Rob14]

Bacde wouldn't have made it to LyLo anyway, JMO. We pretty much already determined that. So it wasn't entirely necessary. I believe the claim, though. Scum wouldn't claim something so easily proved false by lynching Bacde just in order to lynch someone who was going to be lynched eventually anyway. It would be a 1 for 1 trade (which is hardly ever favorable to scum), and it would be for a townie that was already on the chopping block. No point.

[Mirhawk]

@Jmo
The reason I find abasta kind of scummy has more to do with how he has acted today compared to yesterday. My question, although related wasn't directly why he's on my scum list.
Yesterday he was all business, scumhunting like a champ. He asked lots of questions and made remarks on lots of player interactions. Today he's pretty much fence sitting and waiting for Nacho.
Oh and that thing between him and Shamrock struck me as extremely fake from Shamrocks side.

[ICEninja]

I was going to be the kill for tonight anyway. I figure I just want to prove to everyone I'm town so they take my damn case more seriously. And to ENSURE IF WE HAVE A DAMN VIG THAT THEY LISTEN TO ME.

Apparently the first didn't work. I have no doubt, though, that if we do indeed have a vig, Bacde will die tonight.

If we don't, then we almost certainly have an information role. Whom I've hopefully bought more time to find the remaining scum.

[Mirhawk]

If we have a Vig they should shoot bacde tomorrow night, not tonight. On the off chance that he isn't lying and Ald did make a way for docs and bodyguards to work together this gives you the longest lifespan.

[ICEninja]

If a vig shoots town Bacde, Bacde should eat double bullets from both the vig and the scum that shoots me. 2 bullets, only 1 town dead. Unless my understanding of natural resolution is incorrect (which it could be, someone please correct me if I'm wrong).

Moot point anyway, since Bacde is scum.

Also, Bacde, it's well documented in my past games that I find any VT who claims power role is someone not worth playing this game with. I actually had a topic in mafia discussion about it. So no, it wasn't an appeal to emotion, rather an afterthought of an "oh shit if Bacde went full retard it could cost us the game".

A factor I didn't consider until about 10 seconds after submitting the post where I claimed, unfortunately.