M2H has been prodded. They have 24 hours to respond or get replaced.
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 1:12 am
by keyenpeydee
It's been more than 24 hours since M2H has been prodded. I gave him a chance to respond even after 24 hours, but he didn't reply to me. He's getting replaced.
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 3:06 pm
by keyenpeydee
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 3:06 pm
by keyenpeydee
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 3:30 pm
by Raya36
Hello everyone.
Once I get a chance I'm going to look into Umlaut's associations and also Hectic's.
Interesting scum didn't kill Snow who is being considered a potential PR right now. Makes me wonder if Hectic was on to something.
Once I get a chance I'm going to look into Umlaut's associations and also Hectic's.
Interesting scum didn't kill Snow who is being considered a potential PR right now. Makes me wonder if Hectic was on to something.
Actually I'm willing to bet that it means that the remaining scum is a scum PR and assumed that Snow would be protected by a jailer or a doctor and went with the town who is otherwise the most confirmed town plus scary to go up against
Since they're solo scum now, I don't think they can perform their action AND the faction kill, so they wouldn't have been able to do anything to prevent a protection role from working
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 4:44 pm
by Nauci
It would really super suck for M2H if he replaced into a scum slot and then had that turn of events happen which narrows the POE down to just like... 3 slots?
Snowblaze is obviously cleared, Raya36 is cleared for jumping ship in crunch time, Homura is cleared because there was absolutely no reason they couldn't have lurked out the rest of the day and forced Raya and I to switch to lynching Hectic, and I don't see how anyone can assume that I am scum when I had literally every opportunity to declare intent on Gibus and then hammer him immediately with only ~12 hours left on the clock instead of waiting until the next day to do so, and obviously we cannot both be scum.
That means scum has to be within Gibus, M2H, and Pi.
Of those 3, I still have a townlean on Pi, and would like to focus on the other 2 for now.
I cannot for the life of me figure out why Umlaut would claim when he did as scum. It would have made absolutely zero sense to do so as town, but as scum, it also doesn't make sense to me. He wasn't really in imminent danger of being lynched because even if Hectic defused the wagon on Gibus, he was still on the chopping block and if Umlaut did NOT claim, Hectic's lynch would still have been the more likely one, I think? I mean, the only other scenario I can think of is that Gibus was the scum PR, and Umlaut was trying to protect the scum PR? That also doesn't make sense to me because if Umlaut was lynched, then the scum PR wouldn't be able to do both their scum action and the faction kill except to do so on the same target (i.e. roleblock a jailer in order to prevent them from jailing in order to then kill the jailer?).
The only other possible explanation is that Umlaut legitimately thought that Hectic's last minute wagon would successfully go through in what little time remained, and honestly thought that claiming an investigative role would save him and hoped that town wouldn't be checking the thread in time to counter claim? Or that the lynch would go through either way, and he could at least draw out a town counter claim for his buddy to kill afterwards?
I honestly don't know. But Hectic flipping town and Umlaut flipping scum means Gibus isn't cleared.
Now it's a matter of figuring out whether Umlaut would have super hard town reads on his scum buddy or not, because he spent half of the day saying that Ghost/M2H is SUPER RIDICULOUSLY TOWN and that's making me all WIFOM.
Anyway, lynching 1 out of 2 scum on the first day with all town PR alive means we almost definitely win this one short of a scum miracle move.
VOTE: Gibus Let's start here while we wait for M2H's replacement.
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 4:59 pm
by gibus
Isn't M2H cleared? Wouldn't making a NK be considered as a response? VOTE: Piisirrational
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 5:12 pm
by Nauci
In post 534, gibus wrote:Isn't M2H cleared? Wouldn't making a NK be considered as a response? VOTE: Piisirrational
Oh shit you're right about that
Huge oops from me
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 5:13 pm
by Nauci
Night should probably have been frozen until a replacement was found
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:10 pm
by gibus
If Snow is an investigative role, they should consider posting the results I guess?
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:28 pm
by Snowblaze
I’m... not dead? Yeah, I am an investigative role. I’m the cop. Sorry for putting you all through the stress of trying to work out whether I was counterclaiming or not. Not sure exactly how I managed to both survive and not be roleblocked, but gibus is town. My theory is that scum thought Hectic and I were mason buddies.
Annoyingly, I don’t know whether a doctor exists or whether I’m guaranteed to die tonight.
Anyway, I guess POE leads me to VOTE: piisirrational. That’s L-2, if anyone’s counting. Although my paranoia is making me wonder whether someone was bussing Umlaut. I’ll check back through the associations with Umlaut, see what makes most sense.
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:38 pm
by Nauci
Yessssss thank you for that clear, I feel even better about the game state now
VOTE: Piisirrational
That's L-1
The only vague possibility of someone on that wagon bussing Umlaut is Raya and I am just not seeing that, so I'm pretty confident about this lynch
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:47 pm
by Nauci
@Snowblaze You being alive means that scum is almost definitely a roleblocker or rolecop who knows that there's a high likelihood of a protective role in the game and therefore didn't bother trying to target you, so they're trying to guess the other PR at this point?
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:49 pm
by Snowblaze
In post 540, Nauci wrote:@Snowblaze You being alive means that scum is almost definitely a roleblocker or rolecop who knows that there's a high likelihood of a protective role in the game and therefore didn't bother trying to target you, so they're trying to guess the other PR at this point?
Rolecop is impossible in the same setup as a cop. Roleblocker is likely... only why didn’t they roleblock me? I’m kind of confused about how on Earth I managed to get a useful result tonight, but not complaining!
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:53 pm
by Snowblaze
Umlaut and pi seriously voted for each other early on day one... neither wagon really took off at the time, though, so distancing is possible there.
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:56 pm
by gibus
If it's A1, doc should obviously keep protecting Snow.
And scum should forfeit.
HAMMER
VOTE: piisirrational
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:03 pm
by Snowblaze
Scum can’t forfeit if you just lynched them.
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:03 pm
by Nauci
Spoiler: All of the times Umlaut interacted with or commented on Pi directly (as opposed to reading others based on their interactions with Pi)
In post 39, piisirrational wrote:What do you find in post 26 that is scummy? To me, it looks like they're agreeing with you that gibus made a post that was a scumclaim.
I think you're reading a lot more into both 26 and 30 than there actually is there.
In post 39, piisirrational wrote:Post 27, on the other hand, is pretty scummy. The reasoning of simply wanting "a bigger wagon" seems opportunistic.
VOTE: Umlaut
What do you get out of having big wagons forming early on the game as town? What are your thoughts on the current wagons?
What's opportunistic about it? Is there someone else you think I should be voting instead, and if not then what's wrong with jumping onto the biggest wagon?
I really haven't seen anything alignment-indicative from anyone yet. My thoughts on the current wagons are that it's good they exist because they'll push the game forward.
Hectic wrote:I'm disgusted by all this alt-speculation. No respect for people's privacy. But yes, I can confirm that I am in fact an alt of Looker.
This just feels like a lot of noise. The wagon wasn't RVS.
For what it's worth, I felt like the wagon was pretty random when I jumped onto it. I don't take Gibus' "scumclaim" seriously for a second and I definitely don't believe it's more likely to come from scum.
That said, I don't understand where Pi is coming from here and it bothers me. I just read 81 five times and I still don't really know what he's saying. I also think 76 deserves an answer.
VOTE: piisirational
because at least it's better than gibus.
In post 98, Snowblaze wrote:
@Ghost Ganster: Homura has been relatively inactive as town in previous games.
This is likely not going to be popular, but I don't care too much if they're town. Giving lurkers a pass is bad, in my opinion, even if meta is at play. It's just too good for scum.
She has yet to even vote, randomly or not.
@Homura, what are your scum-reads? Do consider using your vote as well, please.
Good post (though I maybe agree with the second part more than the first; I definitely do care if they're town.)
Not sure how to feel about Raya's white-knighting me in 105. It seems from the next post that they don't actually think Pi is scum so I'm not sure what else that post could be trying to accomplish. Still leaning scum on Pi notwithstanding Snow's meta point there, also Elmo after that ridiculous push on Snow. Ganster is still my favorite for town.
In post 113, Umlaut wrote:
Not sure how to feel about Raya's white-knighting me in 105. It seems from the next post that they don't actually think Pi is scum so I'm not sure what else that post could be trying to accomplish. Still leaning scum on Pi notwithstanding Snow's meta point there, also Elmo after that ridiculous push on Snow. Ganster is still my favorite for town.
Are you sure you meant 105? I'm a bit confused
I meant 105, yes (but not so much in itself as because it's continuing to pursue the line of discussion starting with 76). You say Pi is town so you're not claiming his reasons are disingenuous, you're just trying to dissuade him from scumreading me. I don't think I've yet done anything so obvtown as to warrant that kind of defense, so where's it coming from?
In post 151, Umlaut wrote:Losing interest in Pi, he seems like he could just be foot-in-mouth town. 121 in particular sort of reminds me of another player who is the sort of lynchbait I am way too prone to fall for.
VOTE: Elmo
I'm not thrilled with starting a wagon on someone immediately after they declare V/LA, but she's posted since then so I guess she's not completely absent.
In post 152, Raya36 wrote:Oh I see what you mean. I was never trying to dissuade him from scumreading you. I was just trying to get a better read on Pi. Which I did. I wasn't even thinking about you when asking it which is why I was confused at first
I guess that makes sense. I think it's good town play to keep questioning even players you think are town but I don't necessarily expect to see town actually do it even though they should, so it wasn't clear to me you were doing that.
(In response to your next post, I am most definitely town or scum)
Why are you still voting me? Last time you talked about it you were saying you didn't even really think I was scum. Did you decide I was at some point or do you just still have no scumreads two days later?
Why are you still voting me? Last time you talked about it you were saying you didn't even really think I was scum. Did you decide I was at some point or do you just still have no scumreads two days later?
The fact you've changed your vote doesn't relieve you from answering this.
In post 315, Umlaut wrote:Probably time for us to all put our cards on the table since deadline is approaching.
In post 384, piisirrational wrote:It's not the fact that it's the effort that is what giving me a townlean on her, but more of the content behind the post. I think the fact that she split up her catch-up post (I feel like scum would probably be more likely to put everything into one post) and the fact that she plans to "properly resuscitate the game" is town-indicative.
Really? I don't buy "splitting up her catch-up post" as AI at all, and as for that "resuscitate the game" comment... you are aware that scum want people to think they're town, yes?
@Nauci
You're going to acknowledge we need to consolidate on a lynch, and then start a whole new wagon from zero? How about you vote Hectic so we can actually get an intent before we're down to last-second scrambling?
Umlaut did an early push on Pi but backed off on it before there was any real danger fairly early in Day 1 and placed them in Null after that. I feel like it's pretty good odds that scum null reads their scum buddy.
PEdit: Gibus, Pi isn't even around for twilight are you that confident about ending the game here?
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:54 pm
by Snowblaze
I feel like we’re more likely to be in C1 than A1 - partly because if scum weren’t killing me they would have roleblocked me if they could, partly because Umlaut’s tracker claim would have been countered 100% of the time in A1 but only 67% of the time in C1 - if the setup was A1 Umlaut would have been more likely to claim Friendly Neighbour.
Which means I’m as good as dead. Yay.
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:05 pm
by Nauci
If we were in C then there would be absolutely no reason for scum to not kill you last night; not only would there likely not be a 2nd PR, there's almost no chance that the NK could have been stopped. Even if you were jailer, you'd have to successfully guess who the other scum is.
Scum only know which column we're in, not which row, so they wouldn't know if we were A1, A2, A3 (or B1 B2 B3).
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:19 pm
by Snowblaze
My being alive and unroleblocked (yes, I know that’s not a word) makes equally little sense whichever setup we’re in.
If we’re in A1, scum know I’m cop, tracker or mason as of night one, and they don’t kill me because they’re worried about a doctor. So they roleblock me to stop me from getting a useful result if I’m an investigative.
If we’re in C1, scum know I’m cop or mason, and they kill me because I’m a confirmed PR.
...unless it’s M2H and they pre-submitted a kill during the day, before I counterclaimed, and then haven’t been online to change their kill in light of my claim?
@mod
: would you allow scum to pre-submit a kill during the day phase?
Posted: Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:47 pm
by Nauci
Right but I don't think a single scum can perform their power role action AND the faction kill on separate targets in the same night